Turns out that Kaliningrad is a warm water port, too, https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/kaliningrad-russias-political-island-and-key-strategic-exclave/ and it doesn't have the exposure that Crimea does to a hostile mainland. There is, of course, the Suwalki corridor - going through NATO territory - but ships based in Crimea have to go through the Dardanelles Strait, both sides of which are controlled by Turkey, a member of NATO. Anti-ship missiles fired from either shore at Russian ships - that would be like shooting fish in a barrel - and that strait is *long*. A couple of sunk ships would make navigation that much more difficult. And Russia would have to occupy both sides to ensure safe passage, so Crimea has its definite disadvantages.
Putin has stated that he doesn't intend to occupy Ukraine - said so at the outset. And now it's pretty obvious that he *can't* unless he wants another Afghanistan. The mistake that Ukraine government(s) have made is not arming their population like the Swiss have done, handing out guns after conflict has begun is a pretty desperate measure. It seems to have worked out OK, but a population armed with crew-served weapons, rifles, and anti-tank missiles - and trained in their use - would have been a huge deterrent. And if a government doesn't trust its citizens with military weaponry, then there's something *badly* wrong with that government.
As for Dugin, he's had Putin in his pocket for a long time - he's behind Strategic Culture, Fort Russ, Greanville Times, Near Eastern Outlook, Asian Times, and suchlike - and I'd include Andrei Martyanov, The Saker, anti-empire.com, and Moon of Alabama in that particular archipelago - the people advocating for a Greater Eurasia, Russia's answer to the Silk Road thing. Lots of US "conservatives" have been suckered in, too. The enemy of your enemy isn't necessarily your friend. Ron Unz seems to post a lot of their stuff and has for years. I posted on Dugin here: https://streamfortyseven.substack.com/p/heres-a-little-article-by-aleksandr
Well that seems very convincingly to dispense with the 'protect the russian speakers' argument. It's only your anecdotal evidence though, I suppose. Might be wise to wait and see if we get anecdotes telling the opposite story. Though I am pretty convinced by you.
So that leave the NATO oppression story? What about it? Pretty hard to get rid of it I think?
And then the ins and outs of doing a deal right now that simply promises no NATO. Why on earth not?
Going after pieces of the Russian fleet might be quite a wakeup for Putin. Hopefully those who plan these things might look at that. If there was ever a time for the covert guys to play games, this might be it.
I agree that Putin cares little about his troops, nor are they all happy about their task. A POW camp in Poland run by NATO 'peacekeepers' seems like a great idea. Just think of the propaganda that could be turned on Russia. Many of those POWs might be accepted into the various NATO countries. Might even encourage more defections.
I don't know where you are getting your information, but it's obviously not from anyone on the ground in such "destroyed" cities as Kharkiv. At least one journalist has been reporting from there on a near-daily basis and reports that Russian attacks have been against military targets. In fact, because the Russians established "humanitarian corridors" prior to the advance there were few civilians left. Much the same in Mariupol where mostly Azov and Right Sektor fighters remain, using human shields to inflict as many civilian casualties as possible.
In fairness: It is not easy to obtain anything but pro-Western propaganda regarding Ukraine. In fact I can't remember a time when more blatant lies were aired on mainstream media. One would never know, without some exertion, that Zalenskyy had banned all opposition parties just this week.
Graham, after the persistent messaging here on Patriarch Kirill and his shady dealings... I went searching for information because this fascinates me. People not even hiding behind religion to exploit its international status to assist the state... it should not surprise anyone that this Patriarch and the previous ones were not only informants for the KGB, but some documents found in the early 2000’s in Estonia confirming their nearly entire career as intertwined and also on the payroll and this KGB agents! I cannot stop digging now! Only the surface. Anyway, this is a bbc documentary from 1999 that is a blast from the past... and after watching it, I have no doubt the church is a major part of sanctions avoidance. If the US government can’t see it, it’s because they don’t want to see it.
Just search u tube for “What is the Russian Orthodox Church” its a timeline documentary.
Turns out that Kaliningrad is a warm water port, too, https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/kaliningrad-russias-political-island-and-key-strategic-exclave/ and it doesn't have the exposure that Crimea does to a hostile mainland. There is, of course, the Suwalki corridor - going through NATO territory - but ships based in Crimea have to go through the Dardanelles Strait, both sides of which are controlled by Turkey, a member of NATO. Anti-ship missiles fired from either shore at Russian ships - that would be like shooting fish in a barrel - and that strait is *long*. A couple of sunk ships would make navigation that much more difficult. And Russia would have to occupy both sides to ensure safe passage, so Crimea has its definite disadvantages.
Putin has stated that he doesn't intend to occupy Ukraine - said so at the outset. And now it's pretty obvious that he *can't* unless he wants another Afghanistan. The mistake that Ukraine government(s) have made is not arming their population like the Swiss have done, handing out guns after conflict has begun is a pretty desperate measure. It seems to have worked out OK, but a population armed with crew-served weapons, rifles, and anti-tank missiles - and trained in their use - would have been a huge deterrent. And if a government doesn't trust its citizens with military weaponry, then there's something *badly* wrong with that government.
As for Dugin, he's had Putin in his pocket for a long time - he's behind Strategic Culture, Fort Russ, Greanville Times, Near Eastern Outlook, Asian Times, and suchlike - and I'd include Andrei Martyanov, The Saker, anti-empire.com, and Moon of Alabama in that particular archipelago - the people advocating for a Greater Eurasia, Russia's answer to the Silk Road thing. Lots of US "conservatives" have been suckered in, too. The enemy of your enemy isn't necessarily your friend. Ron Unz seems to post a lot of their stuff and has for years. I posted on Dugin here: https://streamfortyseven.substack.com/p/heres-a-little-article-by-aleksandr
Well that seems very convincingly to dispense with the 'protect the russian speakers' argument. It's only your anecdotal evidence though, I suppose. Might be wise to wait and see if we get anecdotes telling the opposite story. Though I am pretty convinced by you.
So that leave the NATO oppression story? What about it? Pretty hard to get rid of it I think?
And then the ins and outs of doing a deal right now that simply promises no NATO. Why on earth not?
Going after pieces of the Russian fleet might be quite a wakeup for Putin. Hopefully those who plan these things might look at that. If there was ever a time for the covert guys to play games, this might be it.
I agree that Putin cares little about his troops, nor are they all happy about their task. A POW camp in Poland run by NATO 'peacekeepers' seems like a great idea. Just think of the propaganda that could be turned on Russia. Many of those POWs might be accepted into the various NATO countries. Might even encourage more defections.
I don't know where you are getting your information, but it's obviously not from anyone on the ground in such "destroyed" cities as Kharkiv. At least one journalist has been reporting from there on a near-daily basis and reports that Russian attacks have been against military targets. In fact, because the Russians established "humanitarian corridors" prior to the advance there were few civilians left. Much the same in Mariupol where mostly Azov and Right Sektor fighters remain, using human shields to inflict as many civilian casualties as possible.
In fairness: It is not easy to obtain anything but pro-Western propaganda regarding Ukraine. In fact I can't remember a time when more blatant lies were aired on mainstream media. One would never know, without some exertion, that Zalenskyy had banned all opposition parties just this week.
Graham, after the persistent messaging here on Patriarch Kirill and his shady dealings... I went searching for information because this fascinates me. People not even hiding behind religion to exploit its international status to assist the state... it should not surprise anyone that this Patriarch and the previous ones were not only informants for the KGB, but some documents found in the early 2000’s in Estonia confirming their nearly entire career as intertwined and also on the payroll and this KGB agents! I cannot stop digging now! Only the surface. Anyway, this is a bbc documentary from 1999 that is a blast from the past... and after watching it, I have no doubt the church is a major part of sanctions avoidance. If the US government can’t see it, it’s because they don’t want to see it.
Just search u tube for “What is the Russian Orthodox Church” its a timeline documentary.
Stay safe!!!
Bravo. One of the best columns I have seen from you.