I want to see two things happen. First. I want to see the Ukrainians retake Kherson. Second, I want to see the Ukrainians fire some cruise missiles at Moscow.
I think the former is more likely. The Russians are dug in, but the new weapons that they have acquired from the west should be pretty effective against armor.
If Kyiv's air defenses have been fairly effective at knocking down Russian cruise missiles, I'm pretty sure Moscow's would be very hard to defeat.
My wife's friends in Russia are cowed and ambivalent about the war. An attack on civilian targets in Moscow would be likely to rally them in favor of it. Ukraine should be careful to target only military objectives.
Ukrainians are stealthy and sneaky. If they attack Moscow, I think it would likely be something unconventional and unexpected.
Purely from the conduct of this war, I'm going to guess that Ukraine is a higher IQ population than Russia. I have been very impressed by the flexibility of tactics, use of intelligence, targetting of generals. I really hope to see more unconventional and unexpected acts. But I would love to see Moscow ger a fraction of the treatment that Putin has given to Kyiv. Apart from anything else, it's the only really effective way to deal with bullies. It would be a fine thing to see big 'victory' parades held in May be disrupted into chaos.
We don't really know the IQ here. David Becker's https://viewoniq.org/ View on IQ puts it at about 95, but investigation reveals that the figure is based on a very small, perhaps unrepresentative sample. Ukrainians themselves don't credit "Simple Ivan" in the deep village with a lot of smarts.
I want to see two things happen. First. I want to see the Ukrainians retake Kherson. Second, I want to see the Ukrainians fire some cruise missiles at Moscow.
I think the former is more likely. The Russians are dug in, but the new weapons that they have acquired from the west should be pretty effective against armor.
If Kyiv's air defenses have been fairly effective at knocking down Russian cruise missiles, I'm pretty sure Moscow's would be very hard to defeat.
My wife's friends in Russia are cowed and ambivalent about the war. An attack on civilian targets in Moscow would be likely to rally them in favor of it. Ukraine should be careful to target only military objectives.
Ukrainians are stealthy and sneaky. If they attack Moscow, I think it would likely be something unconventional and unexpected.
Purely from the conduct of this war, I'm going to guess that Ukraine is a higher IQ population than Russia. I have been very impressed by the flexibility of tactics, use of intelligence, targetting of generals. I really hope to see more unconventional and unexpected acts. But I would love to see Moscow ger a fraction of the treatment that Putin has given to Kyiv. Apart from anything else, it's the only really effective way to deal with bullies. It would be a fine thing to see big 'victory' parades held in May be disrupted into chaos.
We don't really know the IQ here. David Becker's https://viewoniq.org/ View on IQ puts it at about 95, but investigation reveals that the figure is based on a very small, perhaps unrepresentative sample. Ukrainians themselves don't credit "Simple Ivan" in the deep village with a lot of smarts.