Bob Homans Sitrep April 15

20220415

Ukraine – 4/15 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
April 15, 2022

4/15 Sitrep (my comments in Bold Face)

I have started using another source

https://euromaidanpress.com/

.  It is in English and very readable.  The other sources are at the end.

INTERNATIONAL

A joint IMF and UN statement the day before yesterday stated that the war is putting one fifth of global population in danger of malnutrition and starvation.

Poland adopted an embargo on Russian coal and adopted a law allowing confiscation of Russian imports.

Russia’s Ministry of Trade announced that major international cargo carriers will stop transporting Russian goods or deliveries to Russia.

Russia is seeking Brazil’s help to overturn the impact of sanctions.  Russia is asking Brazil to lobby the IMF, World Bank and G20 because sanctions are damaging its economy.

The Pentagon issued a statement that it does not see Russia preparing to use nuclear weapons.

Great Britain adopted sanctions against two of Roman Abramovich’s business partners.  The government said that freezing their assets will be the single largest asset seizure in British history.

The French President said that France has already supplied Ukraine with over 100 million Euro of military equipment and is currently delivering 24 fire fighting units and 50 ambulances.

In a friendly match between Shakhtar a Ukrainian football club, owned by Rinat Akhmatov Ukraine’s richest man, and Lekhia a Polish club, a 12 year boy who escaped from Mariupol was allowed as a substitute in the final minutes of play.  With the match tied 2-2, the boy was allowed to take the ball from midfield and score the deciding goal.   Akhmetov’s company, System Capital Management owns two large steel plants located in Mariupol.

The Austrian engineering and manufacturing firm Andritz is halting all activities with Russia.

There are approximately 1,000 international seamen in Ukrainian ports manning international vessels.  The International Seamans Union advised that they cannot leave and are running out of money and supplies.

Canada is sending 150 Ukrainian speaking soldiers to Poland to assist with Ukrainian refugees.

UAE sent yesterday 50 tons of humanitarian aid for Ukraine by plane to Poland for transfer.

National Geographic ceased publication and services in Russia and closed its Russian language site.

Finnish manufacturer of disposable food ware announced cessation of Russian activity.

The Moldovan government declared that numerous advertisements have appeared in Moldovan media seeking to hire Moldovan’s to fight in Ukraine.  The government said that it advises against this, as it is illegal for Moldivan’s to fight for hire in foreign conflicts.

An anti-war in Ukraine demonstration took place yesterday in the Italian city of Gualdo Tadino.

Major global commodity traders plan to limit trade with Russian crude oil starting on May 15 because of EU sanctions.

The day before yesterday Presidents of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were in Ukraine.  In their address to Ukraine’s parliament they said it is time to end Russian piracy and reopen Ukraine’s port to trade.

Poland is ready for war with Russia - the country's Foreign Ministry commented on the risk of Putin's attack.

Polish Foreign affairs spokesman said yesterday that Poland is ready to war and that if Russia crosses redlines against it, the Baltic States or NATO it will react.

NATIONAL

Sinking of the Russian Cruiser “Moskva” - Yesterday Ukraine reported that two Ukrainian Neptune missiles struck the cruiser Moskva, Flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and that it later sank.  Russia’s Ministry of Defense issued a statement saying that munitions on Moskva had exploded and that auxiliary Russian vessels were towing Moskva back to Sevastopol.  Approximately half a day later Russian sources admitted Moscow sank but stuck with their version that it sank because of munitions explosions.

The battle cruiser Moskva had a pivotal role in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.  In addition to command and control, the Moscow cruiser was the linchpin for the fleet’s air defense.  It was heavily armed with surface to air weaponry and coordinated air defense response of the fleet with fighters.  The ship was also Russia’s key naval platform for launching cruise missiles against Ukrainian inland and coastline infrastructure.  Moskva had recently undergone a major refit.

There is a question about the fate of Moskva’s crew.   First reports from Russia indicated that the entire crew, approximately 500 people, had successfully abandoned ship and were rescued.  There have since been reports of communications showing that much or all of the crew were lost.   This would be a further blow to Russia’s credibility and, especially, to families most of whom live in Sevastopol.

With Moskva down Russia has lost 25% of cruise missile capacity it had stationed for launch against targets in southern Ukraine.  Missiles targeting Vinnitsa and Lv’iv have been launched from the Black Sea.  The Russian Black Sea Fleet has since the sinking moved its remaining vessels further away from the Black Sea coastline of Ukraine.   If Moskva was indeed sunk by Neptune missiles, it is worth remembering that the Neptune has a range of up to 300km.

Turkey has banned the further entry of Russian combatants into the Black Sea, thus preventing Russia from replacing the loss of Moskva.

The sinking of the Moskva marks the first time since the 1904-1905 Russo-Japanese Ware that a flagship of the Russian Navy has been sunk.   The name of the flagship lost in the Russo-Japanese War was the “Knyaz Suvorov,” named after Generalissimo Alexander Suvorov, Count of Rymnik, Count of the Holy Roman Empire, Prince of the Kingdom of Sardinia, Prince of the Russian Empire, and the last Generalissimo of the Russian Empire.  Suvorov was one of Russia’s greatest military commanders.   In terms of tactics employed on the battlefield, U.S. General George S. Patton was sometimes compared with Suvorov.

Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate - Currently 0ver 400 parishes of the Russian Orthodox church in Ukraine have signed a petition to the Eastern Council of Orthodox churches for the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox church to stand trial for his support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Bucha mayor said that 85% of bodies being unearthed or found were killed by bullets.

The secretary for the Ukraine’s National Security Council said that in the first days of the war there was gunfire around the office as Ukrainian police and soldiers liquidated attacking Russian operatives.

Ukraine’s prosecutor general announced that as of yesterday 6,673 war crimes were registered, 3,040 cases of treason, 575 individuals were charged and that 198 children were killed and 355 were wounded.

Yesterday Russia claimed that two Russian villages in Belhorod Oblast, on the border with Kharkiv Oblast were shelled by Ukrainian forces.  Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council claims that Russian forces are responsible and are developing justification for their invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine’s intelligence service said first sightings were made of forces relocated from Northern Ukraine to Southeast Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Russia will attempt to rush through adoption of children forcibly deported from Ukraine.  The Ukrainian government estimates that over 800,000 Ukrainians have been forcibly deported to Russia and amongst them approximately a third are children.  Many of these children were taken from orphanages or hospitals.

Ukraine’s parliament passed a law yesterday that equates the Z and V symbols of the current Russian invasion with swastika and hammer and sickle.  This makes them illegal and their use a criminal offense in Ukraine.

The Parliament passed a law that the current Russian invasion is an act of genocide against Ukrainians.  In related news President Zelensky said Russian genocide in Ukraine makes peace negotiations difficult to continue.

Ukraine’s government has registered 76,700 notices of property damage or loss filed by Ukrainians through the governments e-portal.  Based on filings, which are not complete, 219,600 people have become homeless.  37,550 residential addresses no longer exist, and 3,600 cultural heritage require complete or partial restoration.

According to the UN approximately 30,000 people are returning to Ukraine from refuge abroad.

Daily Bulletin of Ukraine’s General Staff:

·       Russia is facing a lack of interest in its current military conscription campaign in South Russia and Northern Caucuses.  The reason is the reluctance of the population of this region to take part in hostilities.

·       Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russian forces are trying to complete the preparations for a new offensive, and they are expanding their aviation group and their command-and-control system

·       Russia is training of additional units from the Northern Fleet of the Russian Federation and the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District, which are being given equipment and ammunition from warehouses and long-term storage facilities.

·       Russia has lost more than half of its personnel in two occupying units of the Russian Federation stationed in Crimea: in the 126th Separate Coast Guard Brigade (Perevalne) and the 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade (Sevastopol).

·       Documents found in abandoned Russian attack equipment left in Chernihiv Oblast reveal combat order issued to the commander of the 96th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade from the headquarters of the 1st Tank Army of the Western Military District on the eve of the war. He received the order and an accompanying map on the evening of 23 February.  The 8-page document defines the stages of the offensive and the tasks for the brigade personnel.  According to the order, "the most dangerous group is deployed on the Chernihiv front."

·       Ukraine and Russia conducted a prisoner exchange of 30 for 30.  Half of the returning Ukrainians were civilians.

·       Russian forces launched ground attacks on Rubuzhno, Novotoshovskoie, and Marianka that were repulsed.

Russian special forces are undertaking terrorist acts inside of Russia to discredit Ukraine according to Ukrainian intelligence services.

A group of independent Ukrainian experts proposed 8 cardinal changes NATO should adopt based on the experience of the Ukraine – Russian war.  These are:

·       Adopt a clear unambiguous statement that NATO defends democracy and democratic principles of human rights and freedoms as the basis for world order.Therefore, the NATO Strategic Concept 2030 should:

o   (1) emphasize that any democratic European state that is subject to such unlawful pressure can count on the relevant support of the Alliance. 

o   (2) clearly define that NATO relations with other states depend on adherence to democratic principles, but not only security needs, thus not allowing perpetrators to have their way.

o   (3) find ways to be active in defence of these principles and values if violated by third actors, minimizing the chances of politically-motivated blocking from within, or getting bogged down in discussions of possible actions.

·       Policy towards Russia cannot be ambiguous – clear conditionality rather than dialogue and deterrence

·       Differentiation of partnerships – not regional partnership programs but structured programs to increase interoperability and enhance the strategic view of partnerships

·       Open Door policy is not enough – once a partner

·       The Black Sea is an integral part of the NATO space

·       Smart security concept – multi partner theatre interoperability and shared resources.

·       Cyber is the fifth domain of warfare

·       Resilience priority – protection of infrastructure in all member states responsibility of all members not national states

European bus service, Flixbus, is resuming service to a number of Ukrainian cities.

KHARKIV

The Kharkiv military administration reports that 503 civilians have been killed in the Kharkiv region during Russia’s full-scale invasion, including 24 children.

Over the last twenty-four hours Russians launched 34 ballistic missile strikes destroying civilian targets.  Artillery strikes were directed at Zolochiv killing one and wounding 8 civilians.  Artillery shelling of the Nemishliansky district of Kharkiv left 3 dead and 10 wounded.

Fighting continues in and around Izium.  Ukrainian forces destroyed a bridge with a column of Russian vehicles heading to Izium.

Ukraine’s 501st Separate Marine Battalion was recently able to "ground" a Russian Orlan-10 drone. This occurred near Balakallia..  The Ukrainians waited in hiding and ambushed Russians coming to retrieve the drone killing two.

DONBAS

In Luhansk constant shelling by mortars and multiple rocket launcher systems. The most difficult situation is in Zolote.

Despite the lack of humanitarian corridors, 400 people have been evacuated.

Seven ground attacks in Donbas were repulsed.

In the Donetsk region, Russian troops continue to attack the entire front line: there is shelling of Avdiivka, Ocheretynska, Marinka, and Toretsk.  11 civilians were wounded within one day.

Residential buildings and infrastructure were destroyed along the line of demarcation. 34 objects were reduced to rubble in 24 hours  (including 22 residential buildings).

The situation in Mariupol has not changed: the blockade and shelling by aircraft and artillery continue. The Russians are not letting people out of the city.

Russians are asking the civilian population to tie a white ribbon on their arms.  This is the sign used by the Russian army and can be mistaken for the real enemy by Ukrainian soldiers.  This is reminiscent of real segregation and the transformation of Mariupol into a real ghetto for Ukrainians like the Nazis did in Lviv and Poland.

Deputy Mayor of Mariupol said that Russian forces are actively cremating bodies in the city using seven portable crematoria.

NORTHERN UKRAINE

On 13 April, a tractor with a trailer hit an anti-tank mine in the village of Nova Basan, Nizhyn district. The driver died on the spot.

Russians shelled recently returned Ukrainian border crossings in Chernihiv and Sumy.  Russian shells shelled the town of Velyka Pysarivka near the border of Sumy and Horodnia near the border of Chernihiv.  Border guards in both Oblasts report the continued presence of Russian military equipment near the border.

Russia sent two rockets against Kyiv and one against Bila Cherkva.  No injuries only damage to buildings

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Ukrainian authorities advised that Russian forces continue trying to mobilize men in occupied Zaporizhia to serve in the Russian army without much success.

Ukrainian forces were able to liberate several communities in Kherson Oblast yesterday.  The commander said, “necessary measures were taken in advance to identify and suppress firing command posts, firepower and other important enemy targets. After that, the assault units carried out offensive operations.”

A cruise missile hit a non-residential building in Sinelnikov, Dnipro Oblast, destroying it without any casualties.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis