This essay wanders quite a lot. There are items I could agree about but several half-truths get in the way. At the moment Russian finances are seen in trouble, discounted oil has caused revenue drops and the sanctions are finally hitting the economy. See https://www.statista.com/statistics/1009056/gdp-growth-rate-russia/ and https://www.newsweek.com/putin-debt-budget-deficit-economy-2023-1779571. Even more behind FT paywall that I won't get into now. The fact that Russia needs to use Iran and N Korea to evade sanctions and buy kit says internal issues. And now Iran is trying to relocate drone making given their inability to operate free of attacks.
The US war machine has begun a real ramp-up that can become substantial given the current noise in Congress. Beware of politicians words bot matching actions. RTX shares now above 2019 values. As the sense of urgency increases, US arms makers can ramp. The profiteer noise will increase but politicos will nod all the way to the bank.
Wars are logistics and the west is still a sleeping giant.
Those who understand nuclear weapons know they only have political utility. The obvious disaster from them has no military purpose and once unleashed cause such secondary damage to the side that used them that the use case is but reckless. Should Russia use some small device in Ukraine their oil field would likely disappear. But we do hope things remain sane. Just as Trump's military was ready to warn China, we might expect the Russian military to remain sane.
A writer such as this Semmelweisz has an obligation to get his facts correct. The number of absolutely untrue and unbelievable claims in the paragraphs following "In Ukraine: the nexus" make me disinclined to go any further.
I know what losing looks like. I was in Vietnam as the US lost its grip in 1972. I read the news, followed the story, talked to the grunts and Vietnamese alike. The sense that we would not prevail was pervasive.
This situation is very different. The sources I follow, among them Bob Homans whom I post, have a consistent track record for accurate reporting and fairly accurate predictions. Morale here in Kyiv is high. Young men are not being swept off the streets and into the army. There appear to be enough soldiers without that. Every new tactic Russia tries appears to me to fail, including the most recent meatgrinder in Donetsk oblast.
I've read enough to convince myself. You are an intelligent, inquisitive fellow. I hope you manage to convince yourself of that which I believe. Whatever the case, I'm not going to invest a great deal of time in convincing you. Follow the sources - MacGregor, Lira, RT on one side, Homans, Slavsquat and others' sources on the other, an draw your own conclusions. Please do continue posting. Others may have more time to respond than I.
I tend to agree with you. The Russian invasion of Ukraine occurred long after the norms of international behavior changed to make altering international borders by force criminal. So the "remember what happened in the 11'th century..." is not an acceptable argument. But the global stakes here are very high. Probably even higher than with the Covid scamdemic. Even Musk's rocket ship to Mars won't save him or the other trillionaires in the next twenty years if the nukes start flying.
Totally agree. Putin is attempting to use nuclear blackmail. Ukraine has the delicate task of pushing Russia off of its territory without tempting him to escalate to nuclear. He is an unstable actor, and there is not evidence that there are cooler heads around him.
While I think that Russia is so far overextended that they would collapse even if Ukraine ceded some territory, sentiment in Ukraine and now NATO would never allow it. We need to stick with a simple argument: borders are sacrosanct. Period.
I'd be interested in your take on this post: https://veryslowthinking.substack.com/p/ukraine-ytd-backtest?sort=new
This essay wanders quite a lot. There are items I could agree about but several half-truths get in the way. At the moment Russian finances are seen in trouble, discounted oil has caused revenue drops and the sanctions are finally hitting the economy. See https://www.statista.com/statistics/1009056/gdp-growth-rate-russia/ and https://www.newsweek.com/putin-debt-budget-deficit-economy-2023-1779571. Even more behind FT paywall that I won't get into now. The fact that Russia needs to use Iran and N Korea to evade sanctions and buy kit says internal issues. And now Iran is trying to relocate drone making given their inability to operate free of attacks.
The US war machine has begun a real ramp-up that can become substantial given the current noise in Congress. Beware of politicians words bot matching actions. RTX shares now above 2019 values. As the sense of urgency increases, US arms makers can ramp. The profiteer noise will increase but politicos will nod all the way to the bank.
Wars are logistics and the west is still a sleeping giant.
Those who understand nuclear weapons know they only have political utility. The obvious disaster from them has no military purpose and once unleashed cause such secondary damage to the side that used them that the use case is but reckless. Should Russia use some small device in Ukraine their oil field would likely disappear. But we do hope things remain sane. Just as Trump's military was ready to warn China, we might expect the Russian military to remain sane.
A writer such as this Semmelweisz has an obligation to get his facts correct. The number of absolutely untrue and unbelievable claims in the paragraphs following "In Ukraine: the nexus" make me disinclined to go any further.
I know what losing looks like. I was in Vietnam as the US lost its grip in 1972. I read the news, followed the story, talked to the grunts and Vietnamese alike. The sense that we would not prevail was pervasive.
This situation is very different. The sources I follow, among them Bob Homans whom I post, have a consistent track record for accurate reporting and fairly accurate predictions. Morale here in Kyiv is high. Young men are not being swept off the streets and into the army. There appear to be enough soldiers without that. Every new tactic Russia tries appears to me to fail, including the most recent meatgrinder in Donetsk oblast.
I've read enough to convince myself. You are an intelligent, inquisitive fellow. I hope you manage to convince yourself of that which I believe. Whatever the case, I'm not going to invest a great deal of time in convincing you. Follow the sources - MacGregor, Lira, RT on one side, Homans, Slavsquat and others' sources on the other, an draw your own conclusions. Please do continue posting. Others may have more time to respond than I.
I tend to agree with you. The Russian invasion of Ukraine occurred long after the norms of international behavior changed to make altering international borders by force criminal. So the "remember what happened in the 11'th century..." is not an acceptable argument. But the global stakes here are very high. Probably even higher than with the Covid scamdemic. Even Musk's rocket ship to Mars won't save him or the other trillionaires in the next twenty years if the nukes start flying.
Totally agree. Putin is attempting to use nuclear blackmail. Ukraine has the delicate task of pushing Russia off of its territory without tempting him to escalate to nuclear. He is an unstable actor, and there is not evidence that there are cooler heads around him.
While I think that Russia is so far overextended that they would collapse even if Ukraine ceded some territory, sentiment in Ukraine and now NATO would never allow it. We need to stick with a simple argument: borders are sacrosanct. Period.