1:45 PM Tuesday. The Russian armored column appears to be stopped in Ivankiv, about 20 miles northwest of Kyiv. No word of any fighting there.
There is fighting reported in Brovary, 5 miles to the east, from which I have heard the explosions over the last couple of days. I still cannot believe that the explosions represented targets of military value. If there is fighting there, it would be armor and small arms.
There are apparently 200 helicopters poised in Bokov airbase in southern Belarus. I can't find it on a map. Gary in London reports that Russia has quite a bit of aircraft in reserve. That has to be true – we haven't seen them here. I credited the strength of Ukrainian air defense, but it could also be that Russia didn't want to commit them.
This may be the calm before the storm. They obviously have not given up on their plans to conquer Kyiv.
One of you wrote to ask why Ukraine was not already attacking the armored column coming from Belarus. Of course we don't know what is happening at this minute – perhaps it is. Let me offer some guesses.
In war you want to let the enemy get fully committed to it's battle plan so it has as little wiggle room as possible once you counter attack. The closer the column gets to Kyiv
o the farther they are from their sources of supply
o the harder it is to retreat
o the closer Ukraine is to its logistical base
In the Revolutionary war they said of the of advancing British soldiers "Don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes." We may be in that situation.
I have not heard much about Ukrainian artillery in this war. I expect artillery would be effective in countering this Ukrainian armor. Artillery has a longer-range than tank weaponry. Although I am sure that the Russians have anti-artillery weaponry, it takes time to set up, and targeting is always a complex process. I am sure it is more so when you are moving.
Man-carried anti-tank weapons are most effective when fired from ambush. You would set the ambushes up in places you control - closer to Kyiv.
To repeat an earlier point, the objective in stopping a convoy like this should be to disable the lead vehicles, forcing the others off the road. Eddie and I traveled that road a couple of years ago. It is bounded on the east by the 40 mile long Kyiv Sea. It runs through low ground. You would let the convoy advance to the point at which it was most vulnerable before attacking.
I'm watching the news to see when it starts. Assume you are doing likewise, and we both have the same information.
The few writers who see the nuances are shouted down as "Putin lovers." Fortunately, some like Matt Taibbi write very clearly and (as a longtime Moscow correspondent) know the subject. Here he is today.
7:15 AM. News of a 40-mile long column of armor coming down from Belarus. Photo on a highway. Looks to me like desperation. Huge target. Largely confined to the roads - can't operate well in the mud off to the sides. Can be blocked if bridges are blown, roads bombed out, lead vehicles destroyed.
Troop morale has to be low. They have to be figuring it out by now.
Lots is unclear in the fog of war, but it looks to me like a desperation move. Russian despots have always been careless of human life - including that of Russians. See the history of World War II. This is like sending raw recruits with wooden rifles to defend Stalingrad.
I'm curious, has any guerilla war started? Seems like demoralised Russian troops, strung out across hostile territory should be vulnerable to hit and run attacks and IEDs.
1:45 PM Tuesday. The Russian armored column appears to be stopped in Ivankiv, about 20 miles northwest of Kyiv. No word of any fighting there.
There is fighting reported in Brovary, 5 miles to the east, from which I have heard the explosions over the last couple of days. I still cannot believe that the explosions represented targets of military value. If there is fighting there, it would be armor and small arms.
There are apparently 200 helicopters poised in Bokov airbase in southern Belarus. I can't find it on a map. Gary in London reports that Russia has quite a bit of aircraft in reserve. That has to be true – we haven't seen them here. I credited the strength of Ukrainian air defense, but it could also be that Russia didn't want to commit them.
This may be the calm before the storm. They obviously have not given up on their plans to conquer Kyiv.
One of you wrote to ask why Ukraine was not already attacking the armored column coming from Belarus. Of course we don't know what is happening at this minute – perhaps it is. Let me offer some guesses.
In war you want to let the enemy get fully committed to it's battle plan so it has as little wiggle room as possible once you counter attack. The closer the column gets to Kyiv
o the farther they are from their sources of supply
o the harder it is to retreat
o the closer Ukraine is to its logistical base
In the Revolutionary war they said of the of advancing British soldiers "Don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes." We may be in that situation.
I have not heard much about Ukrainian artillery in this war. I expect artillery would be effective in countering this Ukrainian armor. Artillery has a longer-range than tank weaponry. Although I am sure that the Russians have anti-artillery weaponry, it takes time to set up, and targeting is always a complex process. I am sure it is more so when you are moving.
Man-carried anti-tank weapons are most effective when fired from ambush. You would set the ambushes up in places you control - closer to Kyiv.
To repeat an earlier point, the objective in stopping a convoy like this should be to disable the lead vehicles, forcing the others off the road. Eddie and I traveled that road a couple of years ago. It is bounded on the east by the 40 mile long Kyiv Sea. It runs through low ground. You would let the convoy advance to the point at which it was most vulnerable before attacking.
I'm watching the news to see when it starts. Assume you are doing likewise, and we both have the same information.
The few writers who see the nuances are shouted down as "Putin lovers." Fortunately, some like Matt Taibbi write very clearly and (as a longtime Moscow correspondent) know the subject. Here he is today.
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/putin-the-apostate?utm_source=url
I also, as you know, trust Glenn Greenwald. Two journalists who have not sold out.
7:15 AM. News of a 40-mile long column of armor coming down from Belarus. Photo on a highway. Looks to me like desperation. Huge target. Largely confined to the roads - can't operate well in the mud off to the sides. Can be blocked if bridges are blown, roads bombed out, lead vehicles destroyed.
Troop morale has to be low. They have to be figuring it out by now.
Lots is unclear in the fog of war, but it looks to me like a desperation move. Russian despots have always been careless of human life - including that of Russians. See the history of World War II. This is like sending raw recruits with wooden rifles to defend Stalingrad.
I'm curious, has any guerilla war started? Seems like demoralised Russian troops, strung out across hostile territory should be vulnerable to hit and run attacks and IEDs.
Thank you for your updates!