On being wrong. Dead man walking
20220227
One of you readers, of the liberal persuasion, wrote to ask:
"But biowarfare set up by Dr. Fauci? Really? Put your money where you mouth is and prove it. You were spectacularly wrong on the invasion, you believe wild theories about COVID and vaccines. Now you want us to swallow this tale?"
I have been wrong on many things about this war. I did not expect Putin to start it. I did not expect the Ukrainians to show this much resolve. I did not know that the NATO provided munitions would be so effective against the Russians. I did not know that NATO AWACS would be effective in jamming Russian communications from standoff positions outside of Ukraine.
On the other hand, I did predict that NATO would not provide much concrete support. Interesting that offers are pouring in now that Ukraine seems to have the upper hand.
You have to have a philosophy about being wrong. I answered this acquaintance:
I'm a scientist / statistician / programmer. Our lives are making mistakes, identifying them, correcting them and moving on. I don't have much use for people who cannot recognize their mistakes.
This is a gentleman who is never going to confess that he was wrong. The evidence is pouring in that he was absolutely wrong about the Covid vaccinations. If the evidence shows that the biological warfare labs are real, he will never admit it.
I am very happy to be proven wrong about the NATO provided armaments and the Ukrainian resolve. I will write what I think. In that connection, I find that Amazon has taken down my review of Alexander Dugin's The Fourth Political Theory. I was pleased with it, and repost it here for you.
In my view Putin is a dead man walking. He cannot survive this. He must be forced from power, and is unlikely to enjoy a comfortable retirement. If that's his objective, he had better learn Chinese.
Speculating on what comes next gives me a range of options for being wrong. Let me start.
Once Putin is gone, his memory can afford to be quickly erased. The Europeans can recognize that they do indeed need Russian natural resources, and Russia does indeed need imports from Europe. They can put this chapter behind them.
Ukraine, and especially Pres. Zelensky, are standing tall. Zelensky has expressed his contempt for the fecklessness of his supposed allies in NATO. Zelensky absolutely does not need NATO. Russia will not be a threat for at least a generation. Ukraine can defend itself, and it can afford to let other European nations likewise look to their own defense. Ukraine can thank them for their weaponry, without which this victory would have been impossible, without committing itself further.
The neocons in Washington are down to a single enemy – China. The Chinese are not given to rashness and stupidity. They will incrementally tighten the screws on Taiwan just like they did Hong Kong and Macau, knowing that the United States does not have the stomach to push a confrontation.
This real crisis has put the manufactured crises of climate change in Covid in the shadows. The popular unrest, instantiated by the truckers all over the world, will continue to rise. The politicians who imposed the Covid mandates and draconian green policies will fade quickly.
My interest, as I often write, is the environment in which my family grows up. In a couple of weeks, once this war is over, I think they can look to a decade of relative peace. Its poverty and political uncertainty have spared Ukraine the structural problems that affect most of the countries in the West. I have long written that I found the social capital here very agreeable compared to the United States or Western Europe. As we can all plainly see, the Ukrainians have strong will and resiliency. I would credit best to their homogeneity and traditional morality. In any case I'm glad to be raising a family here.
That's the news from Lake WeBeGone, where the strong men are incredibly grateful to stronger men who are carrying the battle, the good looking women are smiling, the smart young man is gathering memories that will last a lifetime, and Zoriana is bugging me every two hours to play dominoes.
12:00 I still hear explosions - probably missiles - from the east. More and more difficult to believe there are worthwhile targets over there. It may well be that they are just blowing off ordnance. Don't want to return to port with unexpended rounds when this fiasco is over.
My daughter loved playing dominoes with us. She was always one for dominoes, cards and board games with parents and friends. Her crew in the neighborhood, now scattered to various ACC and SEC institutions of higher learning, still convene on holidays to play Sorry, A**hole (card game) and Parcheesi. Sometimes she and her BFF will play bridge with us. Keep on playing.
I can't imagine what those in Ukraine are dealing with. It seems so surreal. I would not have imagined this 3 years ago. And the chatter in the neighborhood is filled with thoughts of Ukraine.
Like Fred Rogers once said (Mr. Rogers Neighborhood) he took comfort from his own Mom's words..."When I was a boy and would see scary things in the news, my mother would say to me ' Look for the helpers. you will always find people who are helping. '"
Pres Zelensky has risen in my eyes as a true courageous helper. Nice Babylon Bee reference, too!