First, Germany does not have an army. It was Angela Merkel's policy to rely on US forces in
Germany to protect it. The Germans allowed their army to wither, and the new government at the start of the war realized that Russia has ambitions to take most of Europe. Putin himself stated that he wanted to restore the boundries of the Soviet Union, and that means taking back all the Baltics, all of East Germany, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia, and Austria. But Putin's plan all along has been to cross Germany to the Rhine to establish a proper Russian border. Most people scoff when reading this, but Putin has stated many times that this is the goal. When Olaf Shulz came back from Moscow before the war started, he met with his government and they announced that they were spending 100 billion Euros to bring their army back to life. They also stated that they would spend the full 2% of budget from that point in the future that NATO desires.
Second, in order to understand Germany, you have to understand that there are conflicting forces within the German state. Some, and this is many Germans, want a relationship with Russia which they prefer over the US. They made a lot of money in Russia and some people have called this collaborative relationship the Schroderization of German politics. Gerhard Schroder, the former Chancellor has been co-opted by Putin and was a member of the board of Gazprom. The Germans actively undercut the independence of Ukraine by building the Nord Stream pipelines, in effect telling Putin that they would support Russia against Ukraine. Putin started this war as the completion of Nordstream II was completed, assuming I assume that the Germans would no longer need the extensive pipeline system that flows through Ukraine and thus would not support Ukrainian defense. There are at least two parts to the Russian gas deal. One is simply greed on the part of the Germans. Gazprom offers the best price available and Germany has built its industrial might on cheap Russia gas. Second, the Germans have been trying to be politically correct since the end of WWII and the latest idiocy is going green. Germany does have wind, but the country is not a feasible location for solar energy. Before the war started, Germany had the highest costs per energy unit in all of Europe, and now the prices are much higher and going still higher. Personally, I was stunned at their stupidity before the war when they shut down nuclear power plants at a time when it was obvious that something was going on. I didn't think that Putin would start a stupid war, but Germany had been begging for more gas and Putin would not sell them more even though the capacity was there. He was obviously using it as leverage. And something that most people don't know: Putin has a doctorate degree from some University in St. Petersburg, and he wrote his thesis on using energy resources as political power. I actually doubt that he wrote the thesis himself, and my sources tell me that it was largely plagiarized, but it exists and Putin has tried to use Russia gas and oil for political purposes as long as he has been in power. Ukraine had no problems with natural gas supplies until the Orange Revolution in 2005, but Putin has turned off the gas several times in winter to try to break Ukraine. In addition, he has been looking for other means to get the gas to Europe since 2005. There is more than enough capacity for all of Europe in the Ukrainian pipeline system, but Putin wanted to bypass Ukraine so that he could use gas as extortion in order to control the Ukrainian people.
Finally, many people bring up the idea of NATO pushing closer to Russia's borders and thus provoking Putin. First of all, no country would want to join NATO unless there was a reason, and the reason that most countries in Eastern Europe wanted to join NATO is to protect themselves from Russia. They certainly wouldn't have joined NATO if Russia was a friendly neighbor, and we can see from Russia's actions that they do not have a reputation for being friendly. Consider the Russian influence in Moldova, Russian troops stationed for the past 30 years on Moldovan territory. Consider the invasion of Georgia, the seizure of Crimea, the invasion of Donbas, the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Lately, there was an invasion of Kazakhstan when a revolution broke out there. In the past, Russia has captured a vast chunk of Finland, the Baltics, Ukraine, and other territories from Japan. It's no surprise that countries neighboring Russia wanted to join NATO. It was for their protection, not a provocation.
I would love to give this two or three hearts. Please consider writing a guest post for this blog. You deserve a broader readership than a mere comment will provide.
I'll consider it. Just recently I was listening to Jimmy Dore, who is right on with the vaccines, but totally wrong about the war. It turns out that I was communicating with a Russian troll who revealed himself at the end of a belligerent series of exchanges by including details that almost no one would know outside of Russia or Ukraine. I think he enjoyed frustrating me, and his English was pretty good.
"using energy resources as political power" - that's straight out of Dugin, from 1997. "t should be noted that Dugin does not focus primarily on military means as a way of achieving Russian dominance over Eurasia; rather, he advocates a fairly sophisticated program of subversion, destabilization, and disinformation spearheaded by the Russian special services, supported by a tough, hard-headed use of Russia's gas, oil, and natural resource riches to pressure and bully other countries into bending to Russia's will. Dugin apparently does not fear war in the least, but he would prefer to achieve his geopolitical goals without resorting to it. ... The Moscow-Berlin Axis - Within the territorial sprawl of Eurasia, Dugin's program focuses on the formation of three key axes: Moscow-Berlin, Moscow-Tokyo, and Moscow-Teheran. With regard to the future of Europe, Dugin writes: "The task of Moscow is to tear Europe away from the control of the U.S. (NATO), to assist European unification, and to strengthen ties with Central Europe under the aegis of the fundamental external axis Moscow-Berlin. Eurasia needs a united, friendly Europe" (369). In advocating this path, Dugin appears to be influenced by the writings of the European New Right, which from the 1970s on, argued for "the strict neutrality of Europe and its departure from NATO" (139). The basis of the Moscow-Berlin axis, Dugin writes, will be "the principle of a common enemy [that is, the United States]" (216).
In exchange for cooperating with Russia in this project, Dugin proposes that Germany be given back "Kaliningrad oblast' (Eastern Prussia)" (228). As a result of a Grand Alliance between Russia and Germany, the two countries will divvy up the territories lying between them into de facto spheres of dominance. There is to be no "sanitary cordon." "The task of Eurasia," Dugin emphasizes, "consists in making sure such a [sanitary] cordon does not exist" (370). Russia and Germany together, he insists, "must decide all disputed questions together and in advance" (226).
The integration of swaths of Western and Central European territory into a German sphere of dominance will be encouraged directly and abetted by Eurasia-Russia. The formation of a "Franco- German bloc" especially is to be supported (171). "In Germany and France,'" Dugin asserts, "there is a firm anti-Atlanticist tradition" (369). Germany's influence likely will spread to the south--to Italy and Spain (220). Only Britain, "an extraterritorial floating base of the U.S." is to be cut off and shunned (221).
Moving eastward, Dugin proposes offering Germany de facto political dominance over most Protestant and Catholic states located within Central and Eastern Europe. The "unstable" state of Finland, which "historically enters into the geopolitical space of Russia" is seen as an exception (316). In this instance, Dugin proposes that Finland be combined together with the Karelian Autonomous Republic of the Russian Federation into a single ethnoterritorial formation "with maximal cultural autonomy, but with strategic integration into the Eurasian bloc" (371-372). The northern regions of Finland, Dugin adds, should be excised and donated to Murmansk oblast'." https://tec.fsi.stanford.edu/docs/aleksandr-dugins-foundations-geopolitics
On the subject of the Baltic states, Dugin proposes that Estonia be recognized as lying within Germany's sphere. A "special status," on the other hand, should be accorded to both Latvia and Lithuania, which suggests that they are to be allocated to the Eurasian-Russian sphere. Poland, too, is to be granted such a "special status" (372).
Excellent analysis! The conflicted Germans who refused to actually engage in Afghanistan tells it's own story. They seem to now be discovering many policy failures as their well respected industrial base is failing.
I might add that 50% of Germany's GDP is based on exports, and their two largest markets are the US and China. The US has made decisions to exclude German products from the US, not openly but by not negotiating a trade deal with the EU. China is a failing economy doomed I believe to decades of recovery after their debt bomb explodes. In the Merkel past, Germany used the US and refused to spend the 2% mandated by NATO for mutual security. Trump pointed this out in a rather crude and inaccurate manner a few years ago, but in essence he was right and it has not gone unnoticed by Washington. They warned Germany not to become dependent on Russia.
As to MacGregor and the rest of American "conservatives", they seem to have swallowed Dugin's maskirovka - the Fourth Political Theory - hook, line, sinker, reel, and rod: "Foundations of Geopolitics is by far Dugin’s most important work. Dugin himself describes it as an “indispensable guide for all those who make decisions in the most important spheres of Russian political life – for politicians, entrepreneurs, economists, bankers, diplomats, analysts, political scientists, and so on.” In FoG, Dugin outlines his ‘Neo-Eurasianist’ geopolitical strategy, which includes a multitude of instructions on how to subvert, manipulate, and conquer various countries in order to create a Eurasianist empire.
As Dugin said, the book is highly influential among Russian elites, including the military, who used it as a textbook in their Academy of the General Staff. It was co-drafted by Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the International Department of the Russian Ministry of Defence. After writing FoG, Dugin was hired as a guest lecturer by the military, to explain his geopolitical Neo-Eurasianist theory to Russian officers and the likes. Seleznyov, a former Russian State Duma speaker and a buddy of Dugin, urged that FoG should be incorporated into the Russian school curriculum.
The most important thing about FoG is that it is, essentially, straight-to-the-point and completely “mask-off,” which you’ll see when we get into the contents of the book in the following sections. Fourth Political Theory, on the other hand, couldn’t be more different. You may have seen 4PT being praised by various nationalists in the West, as it has been heavily marketed to Westerners by Arktos Media (which publishes and translates Dugin’s work for Western consumption) and other “New Right” or “Alt-Right” influencers. 4PT is not designed for Russian consumption, but to be read by hapless Western nationalists. Dugin’s aim with 4PT is to ideologically subvert nationalists in the West, making them more malleable and likely to assist (passively or actively) him in achieving the political goals he laid out in Foundations of Geopolitics. 4PT is overflowing with psychobabble, verbose gobbledygook, and complete bastardizations of various historic right-wing thinkers — particularly notable is the manner in which Dugin mutated and completely inverted the Traditionalist School of thought. 4PT will be quoted throughout this piece, but for an idea of the sort of nonsense included in the book, chapter 13, “Gender in the Fourth Political Theory,” is devoted to arguing in favor of a-sexual transgenderism. Behind the shoddy and transparent mask of phony “Traditionalism,” nothing separates Dugin’s Fourth Political Theory from the extant ideology of the New World Order* that he claims to oppose.
* Often labeled as “Neo-Liberalism,” though I personally believe that this label is inaccurate and insufficient.
In summary:
FoG is Dugin’s political strategy document, in which he outlines highly detailed plans on how to create a Eurasian empire by subverting foreign nations, it was written for Eurasianists, to benefit Eurasianists. 4PT is an implementation of FoG’s political strategy, in that 4PT is a subversive book written for Westerners and disseminated in the West, to channel Western nationalism towards Eurasianist ends.
In brief:
FoG = Mask Off = Duginism-For-Me (For Eurasianists) = Influential among elites of Russia.
This was back before I actually read parts of FoG, got my ass kicked out of bed, and changed my mind about what was going on in Ukraine - I got suckered, too...
I agree with your thoughts on the writings of Douglas MacGregor. When he says that Ukraine cannot possibly prevail against Russia, he should be reminded of the American Revolution.
Who would have thought a ragtag army of American colonists could prevail against the finest army and the richest country in the world? And yet they did, financed (in part or in whole) by the government of France. Over the course of the war, it turned out a determined citizen army, familiar with the land on which they were fighting, and loyal to a cause that was worthy of their sacrifice, won out in the end and formed a wonderful new country to take its place in world.
Russia is certainly not England at the height of its powers, so Douglas MacGregor should reconsider.
Ukraine should take some inspiration from this part of America's history
I don't understand McGregor's positions. I know he has been a favorite pundit on Tucker. I often wonder if he and I are digesting the same news. The Russians have proved their incompetence from the first days of the war and continue to show that going forward. While certainly they can muster enough forces to win a war of attrition no modern war is fought on those terms because the human cost would not be acceptable. Given the logistics difference between the west and Russia, Russia cannot win except if the political will in the west evaporates (it did so in Vietnam and Afghanistan).
So the grind of war continues. Much of Ukraine has been destroyed in Russia's efforts to demoralize but that seems a failure as stuff is rebuilt and restored. From all appearances the Ukrainian will to fight remains strong and perhaps even getting stronger.
Nobody knows what Putin will do to avoid the inevitable. The threat of nuclear escalation is certainly high but Putin knows very well how weak Russia actually is and we don't. Does he not care about his country? I do hope that by Spring he decides he has cleaned up enough Nazis so he can declare victory and withdraw.
First, Germany does not have an army. It was Angela Merkel's policy to rely on US forces in
Germany to protect it. The Germans allowed their army to wither, and the new government at the start of the war realized that Russia has ambitions to take most of Europe. Putin himself stated that he wanted to restore the boundries of the Soviet Union, and that means taking back all the Baltics, all of East Germany, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia, and Austria. But Putin's plan all along has been to cross Germany to the Rhine to establish a proper Russian border. Most people scoff when reading this, but Putin has stated many times that this is the goal. When Olaf Shulz came back from Moscow before the war started, he met with his government and they announced that they were spending 100 billion Euros to bring their army back to life. They also stated that they would spend the full 2% of budget from that point in the future that NATO desires.
Second, in order to understand Germany, you have to understand that there are conflicting forces within the German state. Some, and this is many Germans, want a relationship with Russia which they prefer over the US. They made a lot of money in Russia and some people have called this collaborative relationship the Schroderization of German politics. Gerhard Schroder, the former Chancellor has been co-opted by Putin and was a member of the board of Gazprom. The Germans actively undercut the independence of Ukraine by building the Nord Stream pipelines, in effect telling Putin that they would support Russia against Ukraine. Putin started this war as the completion of Nordstream II was completed, assuming I assume that the Germans would no longer need the extensive pipeline system that flows through Ukraine and thus would not support Ukrainian defense. There are at least two parts to the Russian gas deal. One is simply greed on the part of the Germans. Gazprom offers the best price available and Germany has built its industrial might on cheap Russia gas. Second, the Germans have been trying to be politically correct since the end of WWII and the latest idiocy is going green. Germany does have wind, but the country is not a feasible location for solar energy. Before the war started, Germany had the highest costs per energy unit in all of Europe, and now the prices are much higher and going still higher. Personally, I was stunned at their stupidity before the war when they shut down nuclear power plants at a time when it was obvious that something was going on. I didn't think that Putin would start a stupid war, but Germany had been begging for more gas and Putin would not sell them more even though the capacity was there. He was obviously using it as leverage. And something that most people don't know: Putin has a doctorate degree from some University in St. Petersburg, and he wrote his thesis on using energy resources as political power. I actually doubt that he wrote the thesis himself, and my sources tell me that it was largely plagiarized, but it exists and Putin has tried to use Russia gas and oil for political purposes as long as he has been in power. Ukraine had no problems with natural gas supplies until the Orange Revolution in 2005, but Putin has turned off the gas several times in winter to try to break Ukraine. In addition, he has been looking for other means to get the gas to Europe since 2005. There is more than enough capacity for all of Europe in the Ukrainian pipeline system, but Putin wanted to bypass Ukraine so that he could use gas as extortion in order to control the Ukrainian people.
Finally, many people bring up the idea of NATO pushing closer to Russia's borders and thus provoking Putin. First of all, no country would want to join NATO unless there was a reason, and the reason that most countries in Eastern Europe wanted to join NATO is to protect themselves from Russia. They certainly wouldn't have joined NATO if Russia was a friendly neighbor, and we can see from Russia's actions that they do not have a reputation for being friendly. Consider the Russian influence in Moldova, Russian troops stationed for the past 30 years on Moldovan territory. Consider the invasion of Georgia, the seizure of Crimea, the invasion of Donbas, the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Lately, there was an invasion of Kazakhstan when a revolution broke out there. In the past, Russia has captured a vast chunk of Finland, the Baltics, Ukraine, and other territories from Japan. It's no surprise that countries neighboring Russia wanted to join NATO. It was for their protection, not a provocation.
I would love to give this two or three hearts. Please consider writing a guest post for this blog. You deserve a broader readership than a mere comment will provide.
I'll consider it. Just recently I was listening to Jimmy Dore, who is right on with the vaccines, but totally wrong about the war. It turns out that I was communicating with a Russian troll who revealed himself at the end of a belligerent series of exchanges by including details that almost no one would know outside of Russia or Ukraine. I think he enjoyed frustrating me, and his English was pretty good.
"using energy resources as political power" - that's straight out of Dugin, from 1997. "t should be noted that Dugin does not focus primarily on military means as a way of achieving Russian dominance over Eurasia; rather, he advocates a fairly sophisticated program of subversion, destabilization, and disinformation spearheaded by the Russian special services, supported by a tough, hard-headed use of Russia's gas, oil, and natural resource riches to pressure and bully other countries into bending to Russia's will. Dugin apparently does not fear war in the least, but he would prefer to achieve his geopolitical goals without resorting to it. ... The Moscow-Berlin Axis - Within the territorial sprawl of Eurasia, Dugin's program focuses on the formation of three key axes: Moscow-Berlin, Moscow-Tokyo, and Moscow-Teheran. With regard to the future of Europe, Dugin writes: "The task of Moscow is to tear Europe away from the control of the U.S. (NATO), to assist European unification, and to strengthen ties with Central Europe under the aegis of the fundamental external axis Moscow-Berlin. Eurasia needs a united, friendly Europe" (369). In advocating this path, Dugin appears to be influenced by the writings of the European New Right, which from the 1970s on, argued for "the strict neutrality of Europe and its departure from NATO" (139). The basis of the Moscow-Berlin axis, Dugin writes, will be "the principle of a common enemy [that is, the United States]" (216).
In exchange for cooperating with Russia in this project, Dugin proposes that Germany be given back "Kaliningrad oblast' (Eastern Prussia)" (228). As a result of a Grand Alliance between Russia and Germany, the two countries will divvy up the territories lying between them into de facto spheres of dominance. There is to be no "sanitary cordon." "The task of Eurasia," Dugin emphasizes, "consists in making sure such a [sanitary] cordon does not exist" (370). Russia and Germany together, he insists, "must decide all disputed questions together and in advance" (226).
The integration of swaths of Western and Central European territory into a German sphere of dominance will be encouraged directly and abetted by Eurasia-Russia. The formation of a "Franco- German bloc" especially is to be supported (171). "In Germany and France,'" Dugin asserts, "there is a firm anti-Atlanticist tradition" (369). Germany's influence likely will spread to the south--to Italy and Spain (220). Only Britain, "an extraterritorial floating base of the U.S." is to be cut off and shunned (221).
Moving eastward, Dugin proposes offering Germany de facto political dominance over most Protestant and Catholic states located within Central and Eastern Europe. The "unstable" state of Finland, which "historically enters into the geopolitical space of Russia" is seen as an exception (316). In this instance, Dugin proposes that Finland be combined together with the Karelian Autonomous Republic of the Russian Federation into a single ethnoterritorial formation "with maximal cultural autonomy, but with strategic integration into the Eurasian bloc" (371-372). The northern regions of Finland, Dugin adds, should be excised and donated to Murmansk oblast'." https://tec.fsi.stanford.edu/docs/aleksandr-dugins-foundations-geopolitics
On the subject of the Baltic states, Dugin proposes that Estonia be recognized as lying within Germany's sphere. A "special status," on the other hand, should be accorded to both Latvia and Lithuania, which suggests that they are to be allocated to the Eurasian-Russian sphere. Poland, too, is to be granted such a "special status" (372).
Excellent analysis! The conflicted Germans who refused to actually engage in Afghanistan tells it's own story. They seem to now be discovering many policy failures as their well respected industrial base is failing.
I might add that 50% of Germany's GDP is based on exports, and their two largest markets are the US and China. The US has made decisions to exclude German products from the US, not openly but by not negotiating a trade deal with the EU. China is a failing economy doomed I believe to decades of recovery after their debt bomb explodes. In the Merkel past, Germany used the US and refused to spend the 2% mandated by NATO for mutual security. Trump pointed this out in a rather crude and inaccurate manner a few years ago, but in essence he was right and it has not gone unnoticed by Washington. They warned Germany not to become dependent on Russia.
As to MacGregor and the rest of American "conservatives", they seem to have swallowed Dugin's maskirovka - the Fourth Political Theory - hook, line, sinker, reel, and rod: "Foundations of Geopolitics is by far Dugin’s most important work. Dugin himself describes it as an “indispensable guide for all those who make decisions in the most important spheres of Russian political life – for politicians, entrepreneurs, economists, bankers, diplomats, analysts, political scientists, and so on.” In FoG, Dugin outlines his ‘Neo-Eurasianist’ geopolitical strategy, which includes a multitude of instructions on how to subvert, manipulate, and conquer various countries in order to create a Eurasianist empire.
As Dugin said, the book is highly influential among Russian elites, including the military, who used it as a textbook in their Academy of the General Staff. It was co-drafted by Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the International Department of the Russian Ministry of Defence. After writing FoG, Dugin was hired as a guest lecturer by the military, to explain his geopolitical Neo-Eurasianist theory to Russian officers and the likes. Seleznyov, a former Russian State Duma speaker and a buddy of Dugin, urged that FoG should be incorporated into the Russian school curriculum.
The most important thing about FoG is that it is, essentially, straight-to-the-point and completely “mask-off,” which you’ll see when we get into the contents of the book in the following sections. Fourth Political Theory, on the other hand, couldn’t be more different. You may have seen 4PT being praised by various nationalists in the West, as it has been heavily marketed to Westerners by Arktos Media (which publishes and translates Dugin’s work for Western consumption) and other “New Right” or “Alt-Right” influencers. 4PT is not designed for Russian consumption, but to be read by hapless Western nationalists. Dugin’s aim with 4PT is to ideologically subvert nationalists in the West, making them more malleable and likely to assist (passively or actively) him in achieving the political goals he laid out in Foundations of Geopolitics. 4PT is overflowing with psychobabble, verbose gobbledygook, and complete bastardizations of various historic right-wing thinkers — particularly notable is the manner in which Dugin mutated and completely inverted the Traditionalist School of thought. 4PT will be quoted throughout this piece, but for an idea of the sort of nonsense included in the book, chapter 13, “Gender in the Fourth Political Theory,” is devoted to arguing in favor of a-sexual transgenderism. Behind the shoddy and transparent mask of phony “Traditionalism,” nothing separates Dugin’s Fourth Political Theory from the extant ideology of the New World Order* that he claims to oppose.
* Often labeled as “Neo-Liberalism,” though I personally believe that this label is inaccurate and insufficient.
In summary:
FoG is Dugin’s political strategy document, in which he outlines highly detailed plans on how to create a Eurasian empire by subverting foreign nations, it was written for Eurasianists, to benefit Eurasianists. 4PT is an implementation of FoG’s political strategy, in that 4PT is a subversive book written for Westerners and disseminated in the West, to channel Western nationalism towards Eurasianist ends.
In brief:
FoG = Mask Off = Duginism-For-Me (For Eurasianists) = Influential among elites of Russia.
4PT = Mask On = Duginism-For-Thee (For the enemies/subjects of Eurasianists) = Promoted in the West by the Alt-Right, New Right, and Identitarians (specifically European Identitarians)." https://streamfortyseven.substack.com/p/heres-a-little-article-by-aleksandr
This was back before I actually read parts of FoG, got my ass kicked out of bed, and changed my mind about what was going on in Ukraine - I got suckered, too...
I agree with your thoughts on the writings of Douglas MacGregor. When he says that Ukraine cannot possibly prevail against Russia, he should be reminded of the American Revolution.
Who would have thought a ragtag army of American colonists could prevail against the finest army and the richest country in the world? And yet they did, financed (in part or in whole) by the government of France. Over the course of the war, it turned out a determined citizen army, familiar with the land on which they were fighting, and loyal to a cause that was worthy of their sacrifice, won out in the end and formed a wonderful new country to take its place in world.
Russia is certainly not England at the height of its powers, so Douglas MacGregor should reconsider.
Ukraine should take some inspiration from this part of America's history
I don't understand McGregor's positions. I know he has been a favorite pundit on Tucker. I often wonder if he and I are digesting the same news. The Russians have proved their incompetence from the first days of the war and continue to show that going forward. While certainly they can muster enough forces to win a war of attrition no modern war is fought on those terms because the human cost would not be acceptable. Given the logistics difference between the west and Russia, Russia cannot win except if the political will in the west evaporates (it did so in Vietnam and Afghanistan).
So the grind of war continues. Much of Ukraine has been destroyed in Russia's efforts to demoralize but that seems a failure as stuff is rebuilt and restored. From all appearances the Ukrainian will to fight remains strong and perhaps even getting stronger.
Nobody knows what Putin will do to avoid the inevitable. The threat of nuclear escalation is certainly high but Putin knows very well how weak Russia actually is and we don't. Does he not care about his country? I do hope that by Spring he decides he has cleaned up enough Nazis so he can declare victory and withdraw.