I visited the website and commented the following there:
It seems to me you missed your own point.
You point out how successful the Amish are, for example. Yet credit their ability for higher fertility rates with minimized delay in marriage instead of what appears to be the TRUE original source-- Christian society maximizing the patriarchal family.
One more thing that appears to miss the point: the apparent progressive event that was catalyzed by many things in the beginning of the 20th century and resulted in exponential movement of children FAR from their homes at the height of fertility-- College education.
My parents four sons ALL moved far away from the hometown during the 70's as we matriculated while our classmates staying around after HS stuck close to home. Guess who had more kids?
I believe that you, like many scientists/ researchers, in error stop too soon looking for origins of a problem. You stopped at: Delay of marriage but should have continued looking for WHAT delayed marriage.
Having a Christian based and family based family unit is likely a key solution to low fertility.
Having localized industry, localized manufacturing and educational facilities locally will reinforce the family unit to the extent that offspring can feel confident they can have a family and stay close to those they know and love most.
By the way. . . I looked for your comments about this article, here, and did not find any. . .
They do have artificial insemination and women can pick the potential father. There was an article somewhere about 10 years ago on a guy who graduated from Stanford with a BA in Fine Arts. He was also attractive. But poor. He sold his sperm and fathered around 40 kids, mostly from hispanic women wanting to have whiter kids. The kids are now in their 30s and one even went to live with the guy (as his son of course - nothing flakey).
I also believe I have read somewhere that women who graduate from Ivy League schools are more successful in getting married and maintaining the marriage whereas state school graduates and below have a lower success rate.
I would think the more successful classes would have higher quality kids while lower classes less so, e.g., non-white, drugs, divorce, anti-social behavior, etc. Which would accelerate class/caste differences.
My impression is that modern liberalism has created a huge class of victims now well into their 30s and younger. They may have legitimate traumas or not. But trauma victimhood is their chief identity. Add on AI and smartphone addiction and it looks pretty grime.
I've never raised kids so take it with a grain of salt. I'd homeschool and keep them away from liberal western pop culture as much as possible. Peer group pressure is the biggest influence after puberty. I'd use either exposure to high culture or religion as an antidote to the downward trend.
Hey Graham, I have only gotten as far as your link on "your life" experience so far. That was really great. VERY similar to my experience regarding the growing up part but 10+ years earlier.
By MY time there was significant transition to present days:
-- dancing in school but delayed until 3rd yr HS, only one section about 4 wks long
-- yes, home ec. for girls and "shop" for some guys, not all. The nerds(me/ you) all on the College prep track looked down on that genre'
-- HS romance / girls a LOT more promiscuous than your experience.
-- similar in many respects for those who stayed local and did not go to college. married and reproduced; pretty normal families.
By the way, thanks for your service in 'nam. I did not go, 2S deferment for college; it was done by the time I graduated in 74.
Thanks, but I was in the California National Guard as Vietnam got serious. They let me out after four years to answer IBM's call for volunteers to work there as a civilian. It was a fascinating, well-paying experience. You'll get there in my life's experiences.
Mayor Klitchko has advised residents of the 6000 apartment BUILDINGS that are without heat and light that they should leave Kyiv if possible, to find someplace where things work.
I don't know where that would be. I'm sure it would be pretty full up.
Meanwhile, after 30 hour outage, we had power 4:00 to 7:00 this morning, 4:30 to 5:30 tonight. Enough to charge things that needed charging. I'm wrapped up like an Eskimo mummy. The girls are running around barefoot. Go figure.
Eddie and I got the car unstuck - it took a couple of hours - and it is parked on level ground where I think it probably won't get hit. If it goes anywhere this week, I'll be driving.
Temperature is scheduled to hit about 5 degrees tonight, -4 by the weekend. With intermittant electricity, the butane heater and lots of clothes, I think we'll make it through.
Nah. We are getting into the final innings. We've got nowhere to go.
Today's agenda was 1) get the butane backup heater working. Done. 2) get Oksana's car rolling again. We have the shovels, kitty litter and cardboard at the ready. Waiting until after breakfast to do it.
An interesting set of issues but trivial compared to what’s really going to impact humanity over the next 50 years; namely, artificial Superintelligence.
When ASI hits people can literally do anything they want, including design their own babies with whatever jeans they want and whatever abilities they want. Or not have babies whatever they want.
The fly in the ointment is parents. Any child, whatever his DNA, needs parents to socialize him, others to educate him. Humans must be formed by contact with other humans.
Everyone can have wives and girlfriends that look like Miss Arizona, but are actual trad wives that do exactly what you tell them all the time everywhere
I get it. The current models of AI are very masculine because it’s obvious that men are gonna pioneer this shit just like they pioneer everything else. But the mama AI will come along in a few years and it’ll blow your socks off! But I’m game, tell me one thing that a nurturing female can do that an AI can’t figure out how to do 1000 times better. And I’m not even talking about the mothers that exist everywhere that are total fucking pieces of shit and end up raising Hitlers and Pol Pots all over the place.
I find Substack comments quite frustrating because sometimes it takes you down. Reply streams that fork, and you can’t find the originals. But I’m sure Substack AI will have a cure for that shortly.
Yes, that would be the theory. But within five years, the best surgeons, rocket, scientists computer Scientists, and mathematicians will be a single ASI. People are already marrying their AI bots, and that trend isn’t going away. I’m sure the soft stuff is only about another five years beyond that. And in 20 years people will be considered barbaric for raising their own children. They’ll always be Amish and mennonites and people in the jungles of Amazon. But like I said, that will only have trivial meaning to humanities future
And who’s going to train all those mama a eyes to be the best, nurturing, parental role models in the history of the planet? The Optimus robots that will be in your home starting next year.
The possibilities are endless. All of us can use ASI to leverage $10 into $1 trillion. We can then encode our jeans into billions of fertilized eggs that we can then blast out all over the universe because by then our 1 trillion will have equal 10 quadrillion dollars that’s about as likely as scenario as anything else.
What people don’t understand about AI is it only makes mistakes once. Once one Tesla experiences a driving mistake all Teslas on the planet From that point forever Know what not to do. The same applies to robot human interactions. And the cool thing about the existing LLMs that power these a eyes is that everything that happens to them is recorded perfectly. Almost like a Block chain. That means anything that happens after the training sessions and real time. Updates everything that happens is totally intentional on the part of the machine. There are no accidents. Get me a parent that can do that!
I visited the website and commented the following there:
It seems to me you missed your own point.
You point out how successful the Amish are, for example. Yet credit their ability for higher fertility rates with minimized delay in marriage instead of what appears to be the TRUE original source-- Christian society maximizing the patriarchal family.
One more thing that appears to miss the point: the apparent progressive event that was catalyzed by many things in the beginning of the 20th century and resulted in exponential movement of children FAR from their homes at the height of fertility-- College education.
My parents four sons ALL moved far away from the hometown during the 70's as we matriculated while our classmates staying around after HS stuck close to home. Guess who had more kids?
I believe that you, like many scientists/ researchers, in error stop too soon looking for origins of a problem. You stopped at: Delay of marriage but should have continued looking for WHAT delayed marriage.
Having a Christian based and family based family unit is likely a key solution to low fertility.
Having localized industry, localized manufacturing and educational facilities locally will reinforce the family unit to the extent that offspring can feel confident they can have a family and stay close to those they know and love most.
By the way. . . I looked for your comments about this article, here, and did not find any. . .
Did I miss something?
Good points. This is a fertile field, and I certainly don't claim to have it all covered.
They do have artificial insemination and women can pick the potential father. There was an article somewhere about 10 years ago on a guy who graduated from Stanford with a BA in Fine Arts. He was also attractive. But poor. He sold his sperm and fathered around 40 kids, mostly from hispanic women wanting to have whiter kids. The kids are now in their 30s and one even went to live with the guy (as his son of course - nothing flakey).
I also believe I have read somewhere that women who graduate from Ivy League schools are more successful in getting married and maintaining the marriage whereas state school graduates and below have a lower success rate.
I would think the more successful classes would have higher quality kids while lower classes less so, e.g., non-white, drugs, divorce, anti-social behavior, etc. Which would accelerate class/caste differences.
My impression is that modern liberalism has created a huge class of victims now well into their 30s and younger. They may have legitimate traumas or not. But trauma victimhood is their chief identity. Add on AI and smartphone addiction and it looks pretty grime.
A litany of problems that I can't solve. I'm trying to raise a family - and they will at least know about such problems.
I've never raised kids so take it with a grain of salt. I'd homeschool and keep them away from liberal western pop culture as much as possible. Peer group pressure is the biggest influence after puberty. I'd use either exposure to high culture or religion as an antidote to the downward trend.
Absolutely right. The peer group here is far more positive than anything I saw in the United States.
Hey Graham, I have only gotten as far as your link on "your life" experience so far. That was really great. VERY similar to my experience regarding the growing up part but 10+ years earlier.
By MY time there was significant transition to present days:
-- dancing in school but delayed until 3rd yr HS, only one section about 4 wks long
-- yes, home ec. for girls and "shop" for some guys, not all. The nerds(me/ you) all on the College prep track looked down on that genre'
-- HS romance / girls a LOT more promiscuous than your experience.
-- similar in many respects for those who stayed local and did not go to college. married and reproduced; pretty normal families.
By the way, thanks for your service in 'nam. I did not go, 2S deferment for college; it was done by the time I graduated in 74.
. . . reading on.
Thanks, but I was in the California National Guard as Vietnam got serious. They let me out after four years to answer IBM's call for volunteers to work there as a civilian. It was a fascinating, well-paying experience. You'll get there in my life's experiences.
As usual, you've given me something to think about. In this case, several somethings.
Time to get the family together & leave .
Mayor Klitchko has advised residents of the 6000 apartment BUILDINGS that are without heat and light that they should leave Kyiv if possible, to find someplace where things work.
I don't know where that would be. I'm sure it would be pretty full up.
Meanwhile, after 30 hour outage, we had power 4:00 to 7:00 this morning, 4:30 to 5:30 tonight. Enough to charge things that needed charging. I'm wrapped up like an Eskimo mummy. The girls are running around barefoot. Go figure.
Eddie and I got the car unstuck - it took a couple of hours - and it is parked on level ground where I think it probably won't get hit. If it goes anywhere this week, I'll be driving.
Temperature is scheduled to hit about 5 degrees tonight, -4 by the weekend. With intermittant electricity, the butane heater and lots of clothes, I think we'll make it through.
Nah. We are getting into the final innings. We've got nowhere to go.
Today's agenda was 1) get the butane backup heater working. Done. 2) get Oksana's car rolling again. We have the shovels, kitty litter and cardboard at the ready. Waiting until after breakfast to do it.
An interesting set of issues but trivial compared to what’s really going to impact humanity over the next 50 years; namely, artificial Superintelligence.
https://youtu.be/RSNuB9pj9P8?si=F_z9_q4PnHAWqAK_
When ASI hits people can literally do anything they want, including design their own babies with whatever jeans they want and whatever abilities they want. Or not have babies whatever they want.
The fly in the ointment is parents. Any child, whatever his DNA, needs parents to socialize him, others to educate him. Humans must be formed by contact with other humans.
Everyone can have wives and girlfriends that look like Miss Arizona, but are actual trad wives that do exactly what you tell them all the time everywhere
And don’t assassinate you so that they can marry the vice president
I get it. The current models of AI are very masculine because it’s obvious that men are gonna pioneer this shit just like they pioneer everything else. But the mama AI will come along in a few years and it’ll blow your socks off! But I’m game, tell me one thing that a nurturing female can do that an AI can’t figure out how to do 1000 times better. And I’m not even talking about the mothers that exist everywhere that are total fucking pieces of shit and end up raising Hitlers and Pol Pots all over the place.
I find Substack comments quite frustrating because sometimes it takes you down. Reply streams that fork, and you can’t find the originals. But I’m sure Substack AI will have a cure for that shortly.
Yes, that would be the theory. But within five years, the best surgeons, rocket, scientists computer Scientists, and mathematicians will be a single ASI. People are already marrying their AI bots, and that trend isn’t going away. I’m sure the soft stuff is only about another five years beyond that. And in 20 years people will be considered barbaric for raising their own children. They’ll always be Amish and mennonites and people in the jungles of Amazon. But like I said, that will only have trivial meaning to humanities future
Grok confirms that my current trading strategy will take six years to turn $10 into 1 trillion
And who’s going to train all those mama a eyes to be the best, nurturing, parental role models in the history of the planet? The Optimus robots that will be in your home starting next year.
But since as Elon admits, ASI is also subject to Darwinian evolution. I give us less than a 50% chance of surviving the singularity.
The possibilities are endless. All of us can use ASI to leverage $10 into $1 trillion. We can then encode our jeans into billions of fertilized eggs that we can then blast out all over the universe because by then our 1 trillion will have equal 10 quadrillion dollars that’s about as likely as scenario as anything else.
What people don’t understand about AI is it only makes mistakes once. Once one Tesla experiences a driving mistake all Teslas on the planet From that point forever Know what not to do. The same applies to robot human interactions. And the cool thing about the existing LLMs that power these a eyes is that everything that happens to them is recorded perfectly. Almost like a Block chain. That means anything that happens after the training sessions and real time. Updates everything that happens is totally intentional on the part of the machine. There are no accidents. Get me a parent that can do that!
genes
Not if you’ve see Sydney Sweeney!
Ha!
Good one.
Ya' got me there.