Bob Homans Sitrep April 21

20220421

Ukraine – 4/21 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
April 21, 2022

More Weapons

Today, President Biden approved another $800 million weapons package for Ukraine, including 72 additional 15mm howitzers, 144,000 rounds of ammunition, trucks designed to haul the howitzers, more tactical and Switchblade drones, and spare parts.   Ukraine has also received spare parts for its fighter aircraft needing repair, allowing them to put an increased number of planes in the air.  

There is no mention of the following weapons that Ukraine has previously requested:

·        Fighter aircraft – There are rumors that Ukraine is receiving fighter aircraft, most likely MiG 29’s from an un-named country.

·        Multiple rocket launchers, including the GRAD missile system.

·        Armored personnel carriers IAPC’s).   On a webinar yesterday, there was a discussion between 2 former armored cavalry officers about Ukraine getting the M-113 APC from the US.  The M-113 was placed into service by the U.S. Army in 1962.   What Ukraine really wants are Bradley Fighting Vehicles, more advanced than the M-113 with a bigger main gun.

Personally, I don’t understand the Administration’s strategy in shipping weapons to Ukraine.  The equipment listed above has already been requested by Ukraine, therefore why hasn’t it been shipped previously and if not shipped, why not? 

The Ukrainian Army has the Russian Army on the ropes.  The U.S. should immediately supply Ukraine with whatever is necessary to push the Russians out of Ukraine.  Since the start of the war, the Ukrainian Army has defeated the Russians in every encounter that has taken place.   Therefore, it is impossible to argue that the Ukrainian Army isn’t capable.

In his remarks today, Pres. Biden said, “Putin will never succeed.”   Why does it seem so difficult for Pres. Biden to say that the main strategic goal of the United States is for Ukraine to win, and that the United States will do what is necessary to ensure Ukraine’s victory?  

Pres. Biden also announced that the U.S. is providing $500 million in additional financial aid to Ukraine, and they will be asking Congress for a supplemental to the $13.6 billion in assistance already appropriated to Ukraine.  

Biden also announced that Ukrainian refugees would no longer have to present themselves at the southern border, in order to claim refugee status.   They can also claim refugee status at international airports.

4/21 Sitrep (my comments in Bold Face)

INTERNATIONAL

Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoigu reported to Putin that Mariupol is captured.  His report didn’t include that over 2,000 Ukrainian forces control city districts and are ambushing the Russians.

Crypto exchange Binance will restrict access to users from Russia.  Accounts of Russian users whose total value of crypto assets exceeds 10,000 euros, can only use the output function.

Russia has rejected the proposal of the Secretary General of the United Nations, to introduce a 4-day "Easter humanitarian pause" in Ukraine.  The Russian spokesman said the truce is "a desire to give the Kiev nationalists and radicals a respite so that they can regroup."

The United States imposed sanctions against the Russian Transcapitalbank (TCB), associated oligarch Konstantin Malofeev and 635 other Russian citizens, 40 organizations and includes Central Bank officials.

The Pentagon said that the United States has begun to send to Eastern Europe howitzers intended for Ukraine.

Switchblade manufacturer gave Ukraine a hundred of Quantix Recon UAS as a gift.  

US Deputy Secretary of State said that NATO is prepared to aid in evacuation of civilians from Mariupol but that following each time an agreement is reached Russia torpedoes it.

President Joe Biden met with the country's top military leadership last Wednesday, and they discussed plans to increase military aid to Ukraine.

G7 countries promised Ukraine $24 billion, and further sanctions on Russia.

Almost 42% of Japanese support increased sanctions against Russia and Belarus.  Yesterday Japan revoked Russia’s most favored nation trade status.

Le Pen supported Macron's actions to counter Russian aggression, but against the embargo on Russian energy resources.

Latvian Prosecutor General says there are legal grounds for Putin to stand trial for war crimes

Demonstrations in support of Ukraine were held in Lisbon, Jena and at a Bulgarian resort - Sunny Beach.

Turkey is not yet ready to provide Ukraine with equivalent to model 5 of the NATO Treaty security guarantees. 

EU Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Head, argues that Europe is now in danger.  He said, “the current situation around Ukraine the most serious security crisis in Europe "since the Second World War."  He advocated a coordinated increase in defense spending by member countries of the community.

8 out of 10 parties in Finland's parliament are ready to support the country's accession to NATO

Russian foreign minister said Ukraine must take into account Moscow’s legitimate demands for there to be peace.

German Foreign Minister expects that Germany will stop importing Russian oil by the end of 2022.  She also said Germany wants to stop gas imports from Russia, we better do it today than tomorrow

Montenegro bans Russian propaganda media Russia Today and Sputnik due to EU sanctions

The British Lawn Tennis Association (LTA) officially announced that Russian and Belarusian tennis players will not be able to take part in its tournaments, including Wimbledon.

Indian steel company Tata Steel has ended cooperation with Russia.

Russia test fired the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk cosmodrome yestereday.  Putin commented that the Sarmat ensures the safety of Russia and will make rabid countries who are trying to threaten it think twice.

Israel will send helmets and body armor to Ukraine.

The International Monetary Fund is discussing Ukraine's request for financial aid of $5 billion a month.

According to Bloomberg a growing number of Kremlin officials believe that the continuation of the war will lead to a long-term isolation of Russia, and destroy its economy

Latvia plans to stop Russian natural gas import as of the January 1st 2023

Poles removed three monuments honoring Russian soldiers in three different cities of Poland.

The government of Crimea threatened to revoke its former prosecutor general’s government awards for lightly criticizing the symbolic use of the Z-symbol.

Russian crude exports by naval vessels fell by another 25% since the start of April.

⚡️ G20 members condemn Russia's war in Ukraine after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and others walk out during a speech by the Russian delegate, Reuters reports

The Irish Prime Minister assured that Ireland fully supports the imposition of tougher sanctions against Russia and Ukraine's accession to the European Union.

⚡️Map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine according to British intelligence as of April 20.

NATIONAL

A video showing Chechens firing at Ukrainian forces was interrupted when a Ukrainian mine hit them.

Ukraine is preparing for negotiations with Russia to repatriate approximately 50,000 Ukrainians forcibly deported to Russia, many of them unaccompanied children. 

The UN estimates that 5 million Ukrainians fled the country to escape the war, and 7 million people have become internally displaced.  Ukraine’s border officials say 1.1 million have returned from abroad to date.

The United States began training for the Ukrainian military on how to use American howitzers.

Ukraine’s security agency, the SBU, uncovered an organized group of military and government employees that had been stealing military equipment for over ten years.  The agency estimates that the value of munitions and parts exceeds $200 million.  The armaments and parts were handed over to the military after their seizure.

Ukraine has fielded 20 more fighters because of parts donations, according to the Pentagon.

Fishing and tourist excursions in the Danube delta have been banned because of health and security risks, including floating mines.

Russia is supporting its ground offensive in Eastern Ukraine with increased air activity.  The Russians are bombing from 5,000 meters and higher, using dumb bombs, to avoid stingers, starstreak, and other handheld anti-aircraft missiles.  However, bombing from that altitude with dumb bomb is not effective.   

If this information is correct, then the Russians still are unable to support its armor with tactical air support, and it is likely that armored columns operating in Eastern Ukraine are not receiving necessary infantry support.   This is the same situation that Russia was faced with in its assault against Kyiv, with likely the same result.   Additionally, it is unlikely that Russia has improved its tactical communications capability in the few weeks since they were driven out of the territory around Kyiv.  Not having reliable tactical communications makes the conduct of war of maneuver, that the pundits say will be common in the open country of Eastern Ukraine, very difficult.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense daily:

Russian forces continue to carry out missile and bomb strikes on military and civilian infrastructure throughout Ukraine.

In the Kherson region, Russian forces continue trying to organize forced mobilization of the population for the war with Ukraine. They have blocked humanitarian aid to the region.

In the village of Zolota Balka, Kherson Oblast, representatives of the Russian occupation troops held a meeting with the local population, where they announced that there would be no more "green corridors", people were forbidden to leave the village. In addition, they warned that in the event of shelling of their positions by units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian soldiers would begin shelling the settlement.

Over the past 24 hours, nine Russian attacks have been repulsed on the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, one tank, ten armored vehicles and two vehicles, one artillery system, two units of special engineering equipment, an anti-aircraft missile system and a Russian ammunition depot were destroyed.

According to Ukraine’s secretary of the National Security Council Russia, has enough reserves to attack for another 3–4 weeks.  He said,"we have no right to underestimate the enemy. Russia is a big country and has many people, but it doesn't quite have a lot of intelligence."

According to the Pentagon over the past 24 hours, Russia has brought four more battalion tactical groups into Ukraine, and over the past week - 17 BTGs. In total, according to US estimates, there are now 82 BTGs in Ukraine.  The initial invasion began with 120 BTGs.

DONBAS

Four buses managed to evacuate civilians from Mariupol last night.

Russian forces tried to gain footholds in Rubizhno, Novotoshkivske and Popasno unsuccessfully.

April 20 2 civilians killed, and 8 wounded in Donbas.

Ukrainian Intelligence released a recording of a conversation between occupiers that were discussing an order to not take prisoners and kill anyone they captured.

The Luhansk Military administration said that the situation in Popasno is very difficult as Russian forces in large numbers are trying to enter the city.  The city is constantly being shelled and street fighting is everywhere.  Civilians remaining in the city have not been able to leave bomb shelters for the last two days.

The Luhansk Military administration said that they have lost half of the territory in the Oblast but remain in control of the administrative border with the rest of Ukraine and population centers.  The administration continues to advise that the remaining 70,000 civilians evacuate.

The Russian appointed mayor of Mariupol plans a victory parade on May 9.

In Mariupol, 91-year-old Vanda Obiedkova, who survived the German occupation, died. “At the age of 10, she was hiding from the Germans in a basement in Mariupol. 81 years later, she died in the basement of the same city, hiding from Russian troops” – press release from the museum of the Auschwitz concentration camp.

Soldiers of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade, together with other units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard, successfully carried out a joint special operation to evacuate border guards and police officers to the Azovstal plant.  500 soldiers were freed from encirclement at the plant.

KHARKIV

As a result of shelling there were numerous fires throughout Kharkiv yesterday.

Emergency services and territorial defense forces recovered the bodies of 112 victims from the rubble at 40 sites.  At the same time 59 people were rescued reported State Emergency Service of Ukraine

Russian forces launched unsuccessful ground attacks Staraya Hnylytsia and Dovhenke (Kharkiv Oblast). The enemy retreated with losses.

Russian forces are regrouping near Izium after three days of unsuccessful attacks.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces shelled the village of Vysokopillia, Beryslav district, Kherson Oblast.  Villagers reported that Russian soldiers loot, mock, kill and kidnap people.  They are forced to constantly hide in cold basements without food and medicine.

Russian forces shelled Zelenodilsk in Dnipro Oblast with ballistic missiles.  People and houses were not hurt.  Communications have been restored.

Ukraine strengthened the border with Transnistria in order to prevent the penetration of Russian sabotage groups

According to Ukrainian intelligence the Russians are planning to hold a referendum in the Kherson region on April 27, on a weekday.

In the area of Oleksandrivka, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed two observation posts of the Russian army. The enemy suffered losses in equipment and manpower.

On the night of April 20, Russia launched rocket attacks on Mykolaiv.  Today the center of Mykolaiv was attacked with "Tornadoes"- prohibited cluster munitions. One girl was injured. There are no more victims.

During the day, a cruise missile hit the Bashtanska support hospital and destroyed it.  The head of the Mykolaiv Military administration said they will salvage equipment that survived and deploy the hospital in another place.

Russian forces are using a children’s camp in Kherson as a base for ballistic rocket launchers.  Observers posted a video of a rocket launch from the camp.

A Russian sympathizer, pegged to be the Russian chief of Police in Kherson, was found shot to death in his car this morning.  No one has claimed responsibility.

REST OF UKRAINE

Rescuers found a 800 kg aerial bomb in Irpin yesterday and will detonate it today.

Rescuers dismantled the rubble of buildings in Borodyanka, Kyiv Oblast, and found the bodies of 41 people.  Concurrently police discovered two more graves in Borodyanka with the bodies of nine local residents. In one grave they found the bodies of two men aged 35 and a 15-year-old girl, in the other were four men and two women. According to Police the bodies of some of those killed bear signs of torture.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis