Ukraine – 4/16 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
April 16, 2022
Observations
Doomsday Articles - A friend of mine recently suggested that all the doomsday articles by the pundits, about Ukraine’s ability to resist the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are in fact designed to motivate Ukraine’s Western supporters to deliver more weapons to Ukraine in the fastest possible time. One example are the articles making of Gen. Dvornikov, Russia’s new commander, as some sort of irresistible force. If instead the pundits were extolling Ukraine’s accomplishments or discussing Dvornikov’s weaknesses as a commander of which there appear to be several, it might result in the West becoming complacent, and reluctant to supply Ukraine with the heavy weapons necessary to defeat Russia. Food for thought.
Delay Delay
According to some reports, Russia has postponed its invasion of Eastern Ukraine for 2 weeks. Since Russia was pushed out of the area around Kyiv, all the talk has been of the “re’s,” re-positioning, re-aligning, re-arming, re-organizing, re-orienting, etc. If the report of the 2-week delay is true, then it pushes Russia up against their self-imposed deadline of May 9th, to achieve a victory in Ukraine in time for Victory Day.
From my understanding, many of the units that Russia is “re-positioning” from Belarus to opposite Donbas, have been decimated. According to the International Study or War (ISW), these units will have to be re-populated by new conscripts, by reserves who seem to be reluctant to sign up, or likely both, or re-integrated with other units that have similarly decimated. ISW estimates that this process could take several weeks, or even several months.
There is a solution to Russia’s possible dilemma. In addition to May 9th, the other major holiday on the Soviet calendar was Nov. 7th, the celebration of the Russian Revolution. On Nov. 7th, 1941, the Germans were at the gates of Moscow. That didn’t deter Stalin. They had the military parade, as usual, and immediately afterwards the participants marched directly from Red Square to fight the Germans. Lacking a victory to celebrate, perhaps the Russians will do the same on May 9th, 2022, or at least try. The distance will be greater. In 1941 the Soviet soldiers only had to march for 20 miles or so, before encountering the enemy.
4/16 Sitrep
INTERNATIONAL
Russia’s intelligence service, the FSB, requested additional budget for mortuary services. The service did not expect the cost to increase as rapidly as it did.
Yesterday a Pentagon spokesman said that the first arms shipment from the additional $800 million allocated for Ukraine will arrive in the next 24 hours.
The UN estimates that 4,796,245 Ukrainians have sought refuge outside the country and 215 000 international citizens have left as well.
Germany’s chancellor plans to provide an additional 2 billion Euro of assistance to Ukraine, of which 1.4 billion will be for arms.
Russia has halted all tank manufacture because of financial difficulties and lack of parts.
UNICEF delivered yesterday 15 ambulances and 20,000 emergency medical kits to Ukraine.
Great Britain may take on transit of natural gas to Europe as the EU cuts back on deliveries of Russian gas.
US government sources confirmed that Ukrainian rockets hit the Russia’s battle cruiser “Moskva.” After being hit, Moskva tried to return to Sevastopol under its own power, but had taken on too much water, likely became unstable, and sank. Apparently 450 members of the crew out of 500, including the Commanding Officer, were lost. The survivors were rescued by a Turkish ships that had responded to an SOS.
Demonstrators in Vienna took to the streets to protest against rape of Ukrainian women by Russian soldiers. Yesterday there was a demonstration in London protesting the Russian invasion.
Russia claims that 58 sailors were rescued from the Moskva but has not said anything about the others. The complement of the Moskva could have been anywhere from 510 to 700 personnel.
Yesterday the mayor of Paris visited Kyiv and the two cities signed a sister agreement.
Russia threatened undetermined harsh reactions against the United States of America and all other countries for arming Ukraine to withstand the Russian invasion.
The IMF increased emergency financial assistance for Ukraine to $1.4 billion and opened a donor accountant to pool funds from donor countries that are assisting Ukraine.
Georgia’s ruling party, “Dream”, sent a group of parliamentarians to Ukraine and warned that its delegation may face provocations from the Georgian opposition party, “United National Movement”. The UNM is led by former Goergian President, Sakashvilli, who is currently awaiting trial in a Tbilisi jail. Sakashvilli is a functionary in Ukraine’s current government and has a tight relationship with President Zelensky.
Gazprom’s natural gas exports fell by 26.4% in the first quarter of this year in comparison to the same period last year.
The fifth largest global agricultural input company “FMC” has ceased its Russian operations.
Ukrainian refugees demonstrated in Berlin demanding that German publisher “Die Welt” release the Russian journalist, Marianna Ovsianka. Ovsianaka was hired by Die Welt after escaping from Russia following her protest of the Russian invasion on Russian national television. Prior to fleeing Ovsianokova was part of Putin’s propaganda machine.
The New York Times says that in the current round of military aid the United States will provide Ukraine with surface-to-surface rockets designed to kill naval vessels.
German Christian Democrats issued a statement yesterday through Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that criticized the German government for not providing adequate support to Ukraine.
80 km traffic jams are appearing on the Polish Belarus border as Russian and Belarus truckers are attempting to leave the EU. One EU sanction that goes into effect at midnight tonight is a ban on the movement of goods by Russian and Belarus trucks in the EU. Those that don’t make it through will see the vehicles and goods arrested.
Retired head of German Intelligence warned yesterday that Russian intelligence services are likely to increase the level of effort in Europe because of the war.
NATIONAL
Ukraine’s government initiated an infrastructure and housing reconstruction program. The first priority of the program is demining. The head of Kyiv oblast administration estimates demining the Oblast will take up to a year.
Ukraine released Ukrainian military casualty figures – 2,500 to 3,000 killed and 10,000 injured. Many of the injured are in critical condition and until their condition is known it is hard to predict the true dead count.
Russia is losing a billion USD a day according to a Ukrainian economist.
Ukraine’s Health Minister reported that 22 hospitals have been destroyed and another 308 are suffering various degrees of damage.
Ukraine’s intelligence service intercepted and released a conversation between Russian soldiers who took part in firing on a Russian village in Belgorod Oblast. The purpose was to blame the attack on Ukraine. Seven Russian civilians were killed.
In another released conversation Russian soldiers discuss torturing and shooting Ukrainian civilians.
Ukraine’s government and the UN initiated joint support payments to internally displaced persons in Ukraine. Each IDP will receive the equivalent of $80 a month for the next three months.
The UN estimates that 1,982 have been killed in Ukraine. 716 were killed in Donbas; of those killed 511 were men, 323 women, 34 teenage girls, 56 teenage boys, 72 children, and 986 adults whose sex is unknown. 2,651 wounded civilians.
Daily Bulletin of Ukraine’s General Staff:
· 22 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups are centered around Izium whose goal is to encircle Ukrainian forces in Donbas
· Russian forces continue regrouping around Kharkiv
· Russian forces in Donbas continue trying to take Popasno and Mariupol
· 10 ground attacks in Donbas were repulsed
· Russian vessels continue shelling Mariupol
· Artillery shelling of Ukrainian positions in Donbas continues without interruptions
· On the southern front Russians are regrouping and fresh reinforcements continue arriving from Crimea. The goal is to counterattack to retake all of Kherson oblast.
· A fighter jet, one helicopter, three tactical drones and two cruise missiles were destroyed by Ukrainian air defenses.
KHARKIV
Yesterday’s attack on Kharkiv killed 10 civilians including a 7-month-old baby, 42 wounded of which 9 children.
Head of Kharkiv Oblast administration said that Russian forces are pulling back from Kharkiv and moving in the direction of Izium. He said that there are noticeable arrivals from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts.
Following the sinking of the Moscow, the quiziling head of Kypiansk municipality in Kharkiv Oblast fled with his family to Russia.
Russia deported 100 civilians from Izium to Russia.
DONBAS
Russian soldiers riddled two buses with evacuating civilians leaving Starobelsk wounding and killing. Count is unknown.
Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, and Kreminae were the main artillery targets in Luhansk Oblast. Fires followed shelling, two dead and five wounded.
NORTHERN UKRAINE
As of midnight last night 900 bodies of civilian dead have been recovered in Kyiv Oblast.
Approximately 40 to 50 persons are returning to Kyiv daily.
Approximately 60% of damaged electricity infrastructure in Kyiv Oblast has been repaired.
Numbers of people looking for rental housing increased by 40% month over month.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Russian rockets hit the sorting center of Nova Poshta in Mykolaiv. Nova Poshta is a Ukrainian courier delivery service.
Municipal water service is absent for over 4 days in parts of Mykolaiv city and people are starting to draw water directly from the Bug river which flows through Mykolaiv.
As a result of rocket attacks on Mykolaiv yesterday 15 wounded, 4 dead, and one person died after picking up a cassette from a cassette bomb.
Some civilians are evacuating from Kherson by driving through Crimea and on to Georgia.
Two rockets hit an abandoned poultry farm outside of Dnipro destroying it. The owners said this will save them demolition costs.
Odesa is starting to remove tank and movement barriers in the city and is sending the barriers east to assist in Ukrainian forces in Kherson.
Russian rockets hit the municipal airport in Oleksandrivka, Kropyvnichki Oblast causing damage to airport infrastructure.
Russian rockets hit farm buildings in Poltava Oblast killing one person.
Ukrainian air defense destroyed four cruise missiles that were targeting Lviv.
Russia is regrouping the Black Sea Fleet after the sinking of the Cruiser Moskva. Aerial photographs show that 39 military vessels are now crowded around Sevastapol. According to reports, vehicles belonging to the crew of Moskva are still in the parking lot.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis
In reply to Mr Brogard: Remember, this was written in 1997: "Next comes the Ukrainian question. The sovereignty of Ukraine is such a negative phenomenon for Russian geopolitics that, in principle, it can easily provoke an armed conflict. Without the Black Sea coast from Izmail to Kerch, Russia gets such an extended coastal strip, really controlled by someone unknown, that its very existence as a normal and independent state is called into question. The Black Sea does not replace access to the "warm seas" and its geopolitical significance drops sharply due to the stable Atlanticist control over the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, but at least it makes it possible to secure the central regions from the potential expansion of Turkish influence, being extremely convenient, reliable and an inexpensive border. Ukraine, as an independent state with some kind of territorial ambitions, poses a huge danger to the whole of Eurasia, and without a solution to the Ukrainian problem, it is pointless to talk about continental geopolitics at all. This does not mean that the cultural, linguistic or economic autonomy of Ukraine should be limited, and that it should become a purely administrative sector of the Russian centralized state (as, to some extent, was the case in the tsarist empire or under the USSR). But strategically, Ukraine should be strictly a projection of Moscow in the south and west (although more details about possible models of restructuring will be discussed in the chapter on the West). The absolute imperative of Russian geopolitics on the Black Sea coast is the total and unlimited control of Moscow along its entire length from Ukrainian to Abkhazian territories. It is possible to divide this entire zone on an ethno-cultural basis as much as you like, granting ethnic and confessional autonomy to the Crimean Little Russians, Tatars, Cossacks, Abkhazians, Georgians, etc., but all this only with absolute control of Moscow over the military and political situation. These sectors must be radically divorced from the thalassocratic influence coming from the west and from Turkey (or even Greece). The northern coast of the Black Sea should be exclusively Eurasian and centrally subordinate to Moscow..." https://n01r.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Foundations-of-Geopolitics-Geopolitical-Future-of-Russia-Alexander-Dugin-English-auto-translation-with-appended-original.pdf
And that last bit, written 25 years ago, is being carried out today. Crimea was the first chunk to be bitten off, now it’s Donetsk, Zaporhizia, and Kherson Oblasts, after that Odessa. Moldova appears to have been placed within the Moscow-dominated Eurasian sphere of influence. If this analysis is correct, then Romania is next, followed by Bulgaria - but Ukraine is the keystone. It should now be obvious - from this book written 25 years ago (whose full English translation I just found - French and German are easy, but Russian is hard work...) - that the outrage over the US-funded biological warfare labs and everything else was just a convenient pretext for something that was planned out decades ago.
So what Moscow really has in mind is the re-construction of the old USSR, which loss Putin has been wailing about for the past 30 years. As to Zelenskyy and the current Ukraine government, sure, it's a crooked deal, like any other centralized, powerful government, where the citizens don't normally have much if any firepower - and if you don't have firepower and the will to use it, you don't have power. The only limitation effective against governments comes down to raw force, it's the only thing they understand, whether it's a native parasite or a foreign invader. But Ukraine has relatively prospered since 2014, while the citizen/serfs of Russia have been getting hind tit - and less of that as time goes on. Usually the more repressive the government, the greater the corruption and robbery...
all looks like madness to me and cynical arms and other profiteering by the 'supporting' nations.
it is all clear and obvious and deliberate fueling of the 'go to war' mantra rather than any 'go to talks' mantra.
It is clearly in the interests of the USA etc. to sell, give promote their arms, see them in action, disrupt Europe, diminish Russia, etc.
But how much in the interests of the Ukrainian people is it?
Nearly 5 million of them refugees now? That's in their interest?
And what's the plan? Ukraine is going to defeat Russia? What - invade and conquer Russia?
Or it is going to drive Russians out of Ukraine? And have a perpetual conflict on the borders like an active North Korea/South Korea thing?
Which, in fact wouldn't be far from what they already had in the Donbas completely illegally and in contradiction of the Minski agreements.
And while all this goes on the Ukrainian people are profiting
And the Ukraine is profiting as it becomes an American satrapy, like Vietnam, relying on 'free' influx of materiel and funds and an ever continuing war?
And Zelensky and all become entrenched?
And Russia gets driven back behind an Iron curtain where it of necessity either grows stronger and more independent or dies ?
And who in reason would expect a resource rich nation with vast lands spanning the globe and 150 million patriotic and fiercely capable people is going to die?
So who's the loser out of all that?
Ukraine.
You get lying thieves in charge of a country and no good comes of it.
To see this current debacle as 'good' is ludicrous.
And seen as 'good' it is. Prime time viewing. An orgy of hate, everyone reveling in rolling around and hating the Russian people.
The Russian people.
People.
Who, as is the usual, as it happening in Ukraine, have bugger all say in anything that is happening.
It is all as farcical wicked and nonsensical as the whole covid thing.
All around the world people lolling around on their armchairs and sofas, goggling at the tv, clapping their hands with glee, watching death, mutilation and murder and applauding stoking the fires....
All supported, condoned by people who should know better.