Bob Homans May 21

20220522

Ukraine – 5/21 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@roberthomans
May 21, 2022

An Afternoon at the Opera

The Kyiv Opera re-opened this afternoon, for the first time since the War started, with the performance of “The Barber of Seville.”

Snipers at Work

This is an article from today’s Washington Post, about a sniper team operating in Donbas.  They are graduates of Wild Fields, the same sniper school from where my friend and her comrades in the all-women sniper team graduated, the same group to which many of you kindly contributed.   As the article mentions, they are all volunteers who act under orders from the Ukrainian Army; they pay for their own guns.  It is unclear how much of the $40 billion in assistance that Pres. Biden just signed will go to volunteer groups such as these.

Melitopol

Yesterday I included a link to an article about occupied Melitopol that appears in the latest edition of the “New Yorker.”   In light of yesterday’s editorial in the New York Times, that it may be necessary for Ukraine to cede control of some of its territory to Russia, the following paragraph from the article shows why such an outcome will never be recognized by Ukraine, or the people who live in the ceded Ukrainian territory:

“Melitopol is an agricultural center, known for its honey and deep-red cherries, and its population is largely Russian-­speaking. But in recent years, Fedorov told me, as the city attracted funding from the European Union and unveiled a series of urban-renewal projects—a new ice rink and public swimming pool, a state-of-the-art infectious-­disease clinic­—its identity had become less and less tied to Russia, let alone to the long decades of Soviet rule. Fedorov himself, a triathlete with a boyish smirk, close-cropped brown hair, and jutting ears, embodied a new generation of democratic leaders in Ukraine. He won a seat on Melitopol’s city council in his early twenties; in 2020, at the age of thirty-­two, he was elected mayor. “People stopped living in the past and started to believe in the future,” he said.”

I think Mayor Federov may have a future in national politics in Ukraine.

I have a friend, an American, who lived in Melitopol for many years, and he and his Ukrainian wife owned property there.  He always told me that the people there had strong leanings toward Russia, to the point that it sometimes made him uncomfortable.   According to Ivan Federov, the Mayor Melitopol quoted in this article, this has now changed and citizens of Melitopol consider themselves more Ukrainian.   What are the reasons for the change?

·       Decentralization – Cities and towns throughout Ukraine now benefit from Federal revenues being returned to cities and towns, to spend as they see fit.   It is almost certain that Melitopol’s new ice rink, public swimming pool and infectious disease clinic were paid for by proceeds from decentralization, perhaps combined with money from the EU.   Citizens know where the money comes from.

·       Since 2014 the citizens of Melitopol has seen the corrosive effects of Russian rule on nearby occupied Donbas.

Russia can occupy cities like Melitopol but they don’t have enough troops to hold them, and they cannot stop the desire of most of the residents to stay as part of Ukraine.    More than anything else, decentralization has provided residents of Melitopol tangible benefits of being part of Ukraine.   Decentralization serves as a potent weapon helping to keep Ukraine intact, and possibly serve as a beacon for occupied Donbass and Crimea.

Even if there is a ceasefire, partisan activities in and around Melitopol that are already beginning will accelerate, and there isn’t much Russia or the collective West, especially those who suggest appeasement, can do to stop it.   The original strategy of the U.S. was to give Ukraine weapons that can be used by small units, acting as partisans after Kyiv fell in 3 days.  In other words, no reason to provide Ukraine with 155mm howitzers that they won’t be able to use.  Even though the assumption underlying the strategy has proven to be dead wrong, the strategy itself has worked and will continue to work inside temporarily occupied Ukraine.   Macron and Scholz should remember this, every time they pick up the phone and call Putin, asking Putin to agree to a ceasefire.

5/21 Sitrep (my comments in Bold Face)

What’s next?  Following his re-election Macron continues pursuing a Russian policy that seeks to balance threats with appeasement.  Germany’s Russia policy is similar and if the New York Times editorial from the day before reflects America’s Russia policy then next may be Minsk 3.  The difference between Minsk 1 and 3 is that if 1 was to stop Russia’s military then 3 is to stop Ukraine’s.  What's common to all the Minsk agreements is they appease Russia by giving it control over parts, if not all of Ukraine.

The origin of the western alliance Russia policy is policy makers, steeped in Soviet and Russia studies, and the absence of a Ukraine policy.  Western policy makers are blind to Ukraine, to Serbia, most of Africa, and to other countries which have been historical subjects of imperial control. Even today's superpower does not have distinct and tailored foreign policies for all 193 country members of the United Nations. This makes it easier for policy wonks, at the same time leading to poor advice for political decision makers.

Poor advice from a biased historical perspective producing bad decisions is the essence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Macron, Scholz, Biden and the rest of them are ill advised to deal with Ukraine through the prism of French, German, American, and the rest’s historical Russian policy.  This leads to a repetition of past mistakes leading to future wars.

Instead of more of the same political leaders need at least once in a while to do things differently. Best example is Alexander the Great and the Gordian knot.  Alexander, knowing the myth that the person who solved the puzzle knot would conquer Asia, understood that failure to do so would affect his and his opponent’s army morale.  Rather than following the path of his predecessors and failing, he took out his sword and cut the knot in half, thereby untying it. This story is also probably a myth, but its message is clear.

Appeasing Russia as in Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014 and Syria 2015 proved to be a policy failure.  Repeat appeasement now and the west will fail again. 

INTERNATIONAL

New York Times:  U.S. Senate Minority Leader said that a new U.S. aid package to Ukraine could help reopen the Odesa port.  “The Ukrainians are trying to go on the offensive. And I think this package of weapons is designed in such a way as to give them what they need now, not only to win a ground war but also, hopefully, to have some influence on reopening the port of Odesa, because the lack of Ukrainian food will be reflected throughout the Middle East and Africa.”

The Guardian:  The United Kingdom initiates a discussion on the re-equipment of Moldova with the weapons « to NATO standards».  The British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs offers to protect another country - a potential victim of Russia.

Reuters:  Germany and Italy allowed companies to open ruble accounts to buy Russian gas.

Politico:  The US is pushing Taiwan to learn from the Ukrainians how to resist a bigger enemy - in case China does want to seize the island.

The British prime minister called on the Turkish president to resolve the differences with Finland and Sweden before the June NATO summit.  The leaders also agreed to work together to unblock grain supply channels from Ukraine.

Italian Foreign Minister said that Italy has developed a plan aimed at creating a "lasting peace" in Ukraine. The plan includes four steps:

1. ceasefire

2. negotiations on the international status of Ukraine,

3. bilateral agreement on Crimea and Donbass

4. multilateral agreement on peace and security in Europe."

ANSA:  European Union foreign policy chief said on Friday that the EU has "taken note" of the plan.

Pentagon:   On Monday, May 23rd representatives of 40 countries of the world will meet again at the Ramstein air base to discuss military assistance to Ukraine.

●        The Pentagon said there were no indications that Russia had used laser weaponry in Ukraine.  "We don’t have any indication of the use of lasers, at least weaponized lasers, in Ukraine. Nothing to confirm on that."

Publicist Valery Solovey: “Putin decided on a military operation after participating in a ceremony with shamans.”  There were two rituals - one in Bocharov Creek, and the second in the Altai Territory.  And those who inspired him to invade, who convinced him to cancel the original plan of Gerasimov, paid dearly for this.

Social Media: In The Hague, every day a giant Ukrainian flag  20 meters long and 4 meters high is hung out in front of the Russian embassy.  Local residents organized a neighborhood patrol to keep an eye on the flag all day, as someone removed the previous flags. 

Reuters:  U.S. President and his new South Korean counterpart will search for ways on Saturday to break a diplomatic stalemate with North Korea, as they worry Kim Jong Un could lash out with new nuclear tests -

CNN:  $40bn Aid to Ukraine will be signed by visiting US President in South Korea

Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation:  Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Garry Kasparov were recognized as "foreign agents"

Lithuania will stop using all types of energy from Russia - gas, oil and light. Imports of Russian electricity to Lithuania will be suspended from May 22, Lithuanian transmission system operator Litgrid has announced.  As of today, the country has stopped cooperating with the Russian supplier in the region, the Inter RAO group of companies.

The Washington Post:  The new assistance package for Ukraine, which was approved yesterday by the US Senate and Congress, includes Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine.

Canadian Foreign Ministry: Canada added new Russian oligarchs to its sanctions list.  The additions includes the head of Russian Railways Oleh Belozerov, the former head of 'Uralchem' Dmytro Mazepin and his son Nikita, as well as entrepreneurs Gleb and Ksenia Frank, David Davidovich, Oleksandr Lebedev and Yulia Matvienko.

Reuters: Spanish Foreign Minister - Spain supports Ukraine's accession to the European Union and is waiting for the June report of the European Commission

G7 finance ministers joint statement:  ⚡️The G7 countries will allocate $19.8 billion to Ukraine as financial support.

Financial Times:  Russian President declared that Russia is under unrelenting cyber-attacks, but that it is successful in beating them.  Concurrently the President said more needs to be done to protect Russian cyber space and called on the government to create a cyber defense agency.

Turkish Administration:  Sweden supplied weapons to terrorists who carried out terrorist attacks in Turkey.

 U.S. State Department:  Turkey’s approach to Sweden and Finland joining NATO is not a bilateral issue between Washington and Ankara.  Washington was speaking with Ankara, and it remained confident that the dispute would be overcome.

The President of Ukraine met with the heads of Ireland’s upper and lower house of Parliament yesterday in Kyiv.

●        Ireland supports Ukraine's accession to the European Union and will continue to provide Ukrainians with comprehensive assistance.

Foreign ministers of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic and Donetsk People’s Republic met with the North Korean ambassador in Moscow.

Russian Prime Minister: Work on the de-dollarization of the economy remains the focus of  Russian authorities.

Reuters:  China is slowly increasing its oil purchases from Russia. It is taking advantage of cargoes that Western buyers refused because of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the contracts were terminated .

The Washington Post:  Ex-Chancellor of Germany Schroeder notified Rosneft that he can no longer serve as Chairman of the board of directors.

The New York Times Editorial: Russia,"however shabby and inept it may be", is still capable of inflicting countless destruction on Ukraine and is still "a nuclear superpower” with a resentful, fickle despot (Vladimir Putin - ed.) who does not show a special propensity for a negotiated settlement."

Deputy Head of the Russian National Security Council: "Sanctions against Russia will be in effect for decades, it's not even connected with a special operation, so you need to rely only on your own strength."

European Commission President:  "The EU has transferred to Ukraine a new tranche of macro-financial assistance in the amount of 600 million euros."

Russian Defense Minister:  "Against the background of the intention of Sweden and Finland to join NATO, 12 military units and subunits will be formed in the Western Military District by the end of the year."

●        He said that 1908 people surrendered at Azovstal. In addition, 177 civilians left the enterprise, including 85 women and 47 children.

Russian State Duma: A draft law to abolish the age limit for military service is under review.  This includes conscripting people over 40 years old. The website of the State Duma states that this "will allow the Russian Armed Forces to use the talents of older professional specialists".

Polski Times: Polish President;  "I would like it (the war - ed.) to end with Ukraine returning all its territories within internationally recognized borders. This is very important for me, the security of Poland and for the future, because in a political sense it meant Ukraine would have won the war."

Serbian President said after meeting with the European Council President; "Serbia aspires to be on the European path, and our goal is full membership in the European Union."

The American manufacturer of aluminum products Arconic intends to sell its business in Russia.

Dutch internet corporation Prosus will continue its Ukraine e - market operations, OLX Group, but is looking for a buyer for its majority stake in the Russian Avito Internet site.

NATIONAL

British intelligence:  The effectiveness of the Russian Armed Forces may suffer further if they continue to lose UAVs at the current rate. In the Russian-Ukrainian war, UAVs played a key role for both sides, although they were vulnerable to downing and electronic interference.

●        Russia tried to implement the concept of a "reconnaissance strike", which is developed in Syria when using reconnaissance UAVs to determine the targets of attack by combat aircraft or artillery. But the Russian Armed Forces probably lack UAVs for this task due to the limitations of its production capacity.

●        Russian aircraft continue to avoid flights over Ukrainian territory due to the threat from Ukrainian air defence systems.

Bureau of Economic Security:  Ukraine seized Russian and Belarusian assets with a total value of more than 30 billion UAH.  Statement made during a meeting with representatives of the European Union Advisory Mission Ukraine (EUAM).

Institute for the Study of War:  Russian sources may overestimate the number of Ukrainian defenders who left "Azovstal" to increase the number of Russian prisoners of war in exchange or not admit that only "hundreds" of Ukrainian soldiers managed to defend the factory for a long time.

●        Russia tries to disrupt the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkiv by attacking the villages liberated by Ukraine. Thus, Russia wants either to gain time for the withdrawal and redeployment to other areas of the offensive or to strengthen defensive lines north of Kharkiv.

●        Russian forces are focusing on strengthening existing defensive lines and creating additional defences along the Southern Axis.

●        According to analysts, this probably indicates that Russian troops are preparing for heavy fighting in southern Ukraine.

Prime Minister of Ukraine Ukrainian farmers have already managed to sow more than 10 million hectares with spring crops.

General Staff of the Armed Forces:

●        According to available information, near the community of Yaremivka, Russian troops are trying to build a pontoon crossing across the Severskyi Donets River.

●        In the Lyman and Severodonetsk directions, the Russian army fired at the positions of Ukrainian units in the areas of the settlements of Lyman, Siversk, Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.

●        In the Novopavlivsk, Kryvyi Rih, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia directions, Russia continues shelling of Ukrainian troops. The Russian Federation continues engineering work on equipping the second line of defense.

●        In the Chornobaivka area, the Russian troops moved about 130 units of military equipment as part of the refurbishment of units that suffered losses.

●        In the Bessarabian direction, Russian special services are taking measures to destabilize the situation in the region.  Bessarabia is the region of Ukraine that follows the Black Sea Coastline between Odessa and the Danube Delta.   Information about the mining of social infrastructure facilities and so-called government institutions in the cities of Moldova: Tiraspol, Bendery, Dubossary and Rybnitsa has been disseminated again.

●        The Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled 11 Russian attacks in Donetsk and Luhansk alone over the past 24 hours; and destroyed eight tanks, three artillery systems, ten units of armored combat vehicles, three special armored vehicles and six units of Russian automobiles.

●        The Armed Forces of Ukraine liquidated dozens of units of military equipment, three dozen vehicles and munitions warehouses, which the Russian Army used as a military base near Izium.

National Bank of Ukraine:  May 21 the bank canceled exchange rate restrictions.  Restrictions on setting the rate at which banks debit funds in hryvnia from customers' accounts are also lifted if customers use hryvnia cards abroad.

The Wall Street Journal:  Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry:  Ukraine will fight until all the Russian troops are expelled from its territory. Its only borders are the ones from 1991.

●        The short-term successes of the occupiers in Donbas are not important:

●        “Somewhere they will succeed, and somewhere they will fail, but it does not matter at all, because Russia will eventually lose, and Ukraine will regain everything their temporarily lost territories. It will be done by force - exclusively by force, because there is no other way"

Commander of the "Azov" regiment:  "Civilians were evacuated; the seriously wounded received necessary assistance and they were evacuated with subsequent exchange and delivery to Ukrainian territory. The process continues regarding the dead. But I hope that in the near future, relatives and all of Ukraine can bury their warriors."

Security Service of Ukraine:  Secured the release of a soldier’s son from captivity.  The Russian military demanded the son spy on the Armed Forces of Ukraine.  How this was done is not mentioned.

DEEP STATE MAP WITH AND WITHOUT RUSSIAN BATTALION TACTICAL GROUPS

This map illustrates the fact that there are large areas within the parts of Ukraine shown in pink, that are not controlled by Russia but are either contested or controlled by Ukraine.   If that was not the case, there wouldn’t be so much Russian military activity shown in the pink portions of this map.    Ukrainians will not put down their arms, as part of any ceasefire agreement.  Instead, Ukraine will either keep fighting in regular units, or as partisans.  Either way, Ukraine will contest Russian control throughout the area marked in pink, ceasefire or no ceasefire.

KHARKIV

Kharkiv Mayor:  Kharkiv subway should resume passenger transportation on May 24

Center for Emergency Medical Assistance: 8 people, including an 11-year-old child, were injured as a result of a rocket attack on the center of Lozova city, Kharkiv region.  The rocket hit the community cultural and recreation center.

LUHANSK

Luhansk Regional Military Administration:  Russia destroyed 348 infrastructure facilities, and stopped the activity of 3,408 enterprises of the Luhansk region

●        The Russian military shelled a school in Severodonetsk where people were hiding. At least three people died. The police of the Lugansk region are trying to transport people to another shelter.

●        In the region, more than 11 thousand houses were destroyed by the Russian army, of which almost 3,200 are high-rise buildings.

●        Yesterday 38 people were evacuated from the Luhansk region, 12 of them children.

●        Those who stay in the region are advised to remain in shelters.

●        The task of the Luhansk region is to hold the enemy as long as possible.

●        The counteroffensive may begin in June

●        There are fights in the vicinity of Sievierodonetsk in the Luhansk region. Six dead and some people wounded due to shelling. Russian troops are destroying Sievierodonetsk, like Mariupol. They have turned Popasna to dust.

DONETSK

National Police.  Over 24 hours, the Russians destroyed 19 residential buildings in the Donetsk region - there are dead and wounded.  They bombarded 13 settlements: Soledar, Bakhmut, Siversk, Avdiivka, Lyman, Marinka, Romanivka, Bakhmutske, Khrestyshche, Donetske, Kalynove, Sydorove, New-York.

Russian troops killed and wounded civilians. Thirty-four civilian objects were destroyed.

Adviser to the mayor of Mariupol: Over the past two weeks, the number of people in the Bezimenne and Kozatske filtration camps in the Novoazovsk district has grown from 2,000 men to 3-4,000. Russian soldiers continue the practice of taking men out of Mariupol to these filtration camps.

●        Russian authorities today completed the removal of the rubble and the removal of the bodies of the dead from the building of the Drama Theatre destroyed by a Russian mega bomb in March.  “Now we will never know how many Mariupol civilians were actually killed by a Russian bomb in the Drama Theatre. The dead are buried under unmarked numbers in a mass grave in Manhush, a suburb of Mykolaiv."

●        Russians unsuccessfully resumed attempts to supply water to Mariupol - the city is again flooded in the streets.

SOUTH OF UKRAINE

Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration: Confirmed information about explosions in Mykolaiv.

Telegram Channel:  Mayor of Energodar:  During these three days, about a thousand cars from different settlements of Zaporizhzhia and other regions of Ukraine gathered near Vasilyivka.  Now about 100 of them have been able to leave the place where they were held by the Russians and go to their destination.

Social Network: Shows hoisting the Ukrainian flag over the Kherson railway station.

Operational Command Pivden (South):  In Kherson, patrols have been intensified and the number of Russian checkpoints has increased. The Russian military has blocked all exits to the territory controlled by Ukraine. They are trying to send everyone who wants to go to Crimea as the only possible direction.

●        Another missile attack in the Odesa region. The missile hit and completely destroyed a toilet for beach goers.  Missile cost $6 million, beach toilet cost $2,000.

●        A Russian missile hit one of the port infrastructure facilities of the Odesa region. As a result a fire broke out, rescuers are working there. There is no threat to the life and health of the civilian population in the nearest settlements.

REST OF UKRAINE

Operational Command Pivnich (North).  Russian artillery shelled the border areas of the Chernihiv and the Sumy.

●        There were six attacks in the direction of the settlement Kucherivka from the territory of Russia. There are no casualties among the personnel and equipment.

Poltava Regional Military Administration:  Russian rockets hit an infrastructure facility in the Poltava region.

Mayor of Malin:  3 civilians were injured as a result of a Russian missile attack on Malin day before yesterday, Zhytomyr region. An infrastructure facility and more than 100 residential buildings were damaged.

President's Office: Demining of the Kyiv region had been fully completed, and the electricity supply to this region had been restored by 100%.

Ministry of Internal Affairs:  In the Kyiv region, 13 victims of sexual crimes committed by Russians have sworn criminal complaints.

Social Networks: In one of Kyiv’s districts, a mural with "Saint Javelina" is under creation.

Kyiv Administration:  Yesterday morning explosions in Kyiv did not lead to emergency situations.  Air defense forces worked, now the city is calm.

Mayor of Kyiv met with diplomats from 23 countries who returned to Kyiv to work.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

www.ubn.news