Bob Homans May 17

20220518

Ukraine – 5/17 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
May 17, 2022

Re-Thinking in China

This article was written by Gao Yusheng, a retired Ambassador of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), who was PRC Ambassador to Ukraine from 2005 to 2007, and previously, PRC Ambassador to Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.  

“The article makes the following conclusions.  Ambassadors in China usually don’t publish without pre-clearing. Moreover, there are three messages implied here and reported as if speaking like a Chinese person:”

1. “We were wrong; the Russian army’s lousy performance in Ukraine proves that post-soviet Russia didn’t really modernize; therefore, where are we Chinese on real modernization?”

2. “Russia would like to stop the war, but its enemies (Ukraine, NATO, EU?) don’t want and fight may go as far as to cause the fall of Russia. We have to reach a ceasefire as soon as possible to prevent possible chaos at our borders.”

3. “Beware rearmed Japan. Mao and Deng welcomed the US in Asia to put a lid on Japanese ambitions/fears. Now, this lid has been removed, and we are about to face a belligerent Tokyo, something we have dreaded for a long time.”

From my reading the article, it seems clear that Putin sold Xi what we in America call a “bill of goods,” when they met in Beijing in early February at the start of the Winter Olympics.   Putin likely agreed with Xi’s request not to start the invasion of Ukraine until after the Olympics ended because, after all, the war will only last for 5 days, therefore the 3-week delay, bringing the invasion into Ukraine’s “mud season” and thereby limit the ability of Russian armor to maneuver, won’t matter.

The PRC has (or had) major investments in Ukraine, is a major buyer of Ukrainian grain and oilseeds, and Ukraine is a major cog in PRC’s “Belt & Road” Initiative.   It is hard to see how the PRC would support a Russian invasion of Ukraine, if they hadn’t been convinced that Russia would hold a parade in Kyiv on or before March First, marking Ukraine’s “liberation.”

5/17 Sitrep (my comments in bold face)

INTERNATIONAL

Pentagon: American howitzers M777 help Ukrainian defenders to strengthen the counteroffensive. Thereupon has given the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) “a fresh impulse”. A representative of the Pentagon added that the M777 is not the only weapon that allows the AFU to carry out an effective counteroffensive.

●        The US military ordered the production of more than 1,300 Javelin anti-tank missiles. Part of them Ukraine will receive.

Corriere della Sera:  German Federal Ministry of Finance, confirmed the possibility of transferring frozen assets of Russia to Ukraine "I am open to an international discussion on the question of confiscating the assets of the Russian central bank," he said.

The Prime Minister of Estonia called on world leaders to refrain from calling Putin, explaining that it is pointless to talk to a war criminal.   An interview with the Prime Minister of Estonia appears in today’s NY Times.    It is becoming increasing clear that the locus of the EU’s moral if not economic power has moved from Brussels, Paris and Berlin, to Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius, Warsaw, Prague and Bratislava.

The EU is preparing for a full disruption of Russian gas supplies, says the policy document due to be adopted on 18 May.

«Kommersant»  A third of hotels and guest houses may not open in Crimea in the summer.Hoteliers are frightened by the reduction to 30-40% of the projected load for the summer, and they cannot attract holidaymakers by further lowering prices under conditions of inflation.

Financial Times:  IMF calls for urgent financial support to Ukraine. A senior IMF official told Financial Times that Ukraine’s partners urgently need to provide funding to fill the funding gap and prevent «serious macro destabilisation.

The Guardian:  Putin has become so personally involved in the war in Ukraine that he makes operational and tactical decisions "at the level of a colonel or brigadier general."

Bratislava TV channel Markiza:  The National Crime Agency, which is part of the Slovak police, detained and accused the former chairman of the country's Supreme Court, ex-head of the Ministry of Justice Stefan Garabin, who expressed approval of the actions of the Russian Federation in Ukraine".

EU diplomat:  The EU will help Ukraine to export grain from storage to Europe, including by sea, to make room for a new crop.

●        If Serbia wants to become a member of the European Union in the future, it must impose sanctions against Russia. The EU expects membership candidates to fully harmonize their foreign policy with the EU.

Yle:  Finnish craft brewery Olaf Brewing has released a beer in support of the country's accession to NATO - a new drink called Otan Olutta.

Reuters: Israel is ramping up offshore natural gas production and aims to reach an agreement to supply it to Europe in the coming months.

Tverskoy Court of Moscow:  The court fined Radio Liberty 18 million rubles for failing to remove "fakes" about what is happening in Ukraine.

El Pais: The European Commission is ready to finance the construction of new oil pipelines to Hungary so that it withdraws the veto on the imposition of an oil embargo against Russia.

Deputies at the Council of the State Duma decided on withdrawal of Russia from the Parliamentary Conference of the Baltic Sea.

British Ambassador to Ukraine: In the capital of Scotland, one of the streets was renamed in honor of the Ukrainian President.

Ministry of Finance of Ukraine: Ukraine and Japan signed an agreement to provide Ukraine with a $100 million loan on favorable terms.

Latvian Foreign Minister: Latvia suspended the 13th article of the agreement with Russia on memorials and monuments. A corresponding note has been sent to the Russian embassy in Riga.

International Olympic Committee:  Russia and Belarus were not allowed to participate in the tender for the acquisition of television rights to show the Olympic Games in 2024 and 2028,

Prime Minister:  The Swedish government has officially decided to join NATO.

British Greenpeace activists prevented the Andromeda tanker, carrying, presumably, 33,000 tons of Russian diesel fuel, from mooring in Essex.  The tanker turned around and is now anchored near Margate. Police began arrests in connection with the incident.

The Russian government allowed the production of cars without anti-lock braking system, airbags and vehicle stability control system.  According to media reports, due to sanctions, manufacturers no longer have access to some systems, in connection with which a corresponding resolution was adopted. It is valid until February 1, 2023.   Another possible reason for the resolution is that the associated computer chips, along with computer chips usually found in washing machines, are instead being used in guidance systems for cruise missiles.

Shell gas stations in Russia have completely stopped selling fuel. Shops and cafes are still open, a company spokesman told the media.

Relatives of the defenders of Mariupol gave a press conference in Turkey and asked Erdogan to involve China in rescuing fighters from Azovstal.

Another video appeared on social networks which allegedly depicts the transfer of Iskanders by Russia to the border with Finland against the backdrop of the country's entry into NATO.

Austrian and Estonian foreign ministers:  The sixth package of sanctions against Russia will be ready "in the coming days.” Austrian Foreign Minister clarified that the new package of sanctions would be 'very significant' but that there was still "a certain need for discussion." According to him, the entire Russian military complex will be subject to future sanctions.  At the same time, Estonian Foreign Minister hopes that an embargo on Russian oil will be included in the sanctions package.

Aktuality:  The Ukrainian military is already being trained on the Slovak Zuzana 2 self-propelled guns, despite the fact that an agreement on their sale has not yet been concluded.  This information was confirmed by the country's Minister of Defense.

Video from social networks.  In Berlin, a Ukrainian chained herself to a post, demanding to save the defenders of Mariupol. The girl says that she will not budge until the Ukrainian fighters are pulled out of Azovstal.

 The summit of the leaders of the countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has begun in Moscow.  Lukashenko announced a dangerous tendency to "dismember" Ukraine, referring to the desire of the Poles to enter the western regions under the guise of peacekeepers.  He also said NATO is aggressively building up its muscles, pulling in neutral countries and acting on the principle "who is not with us is against us".

●        A whole series of joint military exercises of the CSTO will be held in autumn, their number will expand - Putin.  Commenting on the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO, noted that Russia has no problems with these countries, their entry does not create a threat, but will cause a response.  Putin said that he would inform the CSTO leaders in detail about the progress of the "special military operation" in Ukraine behind closed doors.

●        Armenian Prime Minister criticized the CSTO for its actions during the conflict with Azerbaijan in 2020.  According to him, Armenia asked for help from the CSTO, but there was no response. Armenia also asked not to sell weapons to Azerbaijan, but the CSTO members also ignored this request.

Reuters:  Turkey is ready to send gas from the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe as an alternative to supplies from the Russian Federation.

Russian hackers Killnet announced the launch of a global cyber-attack on the US, UK, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Romania, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland and Ukraine.

Press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation:  The membership of Ukraine in NATO differs from Finland and Sweden in that Kyiv has a "territorial dispute" with Moscow.

European Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy:  The EU got all th of Ukraine's responses to the EU questionnaire.  According to him, the European Commission is preparing an opinion for the European Council on Ukraine's application to the EU.

The United States intends to ratify Finland's accession to NATO by autumn.  This was stated by the leader of the Republican minority in the US Senate Mitch McConnell at a briefing with Finnish President Sauli Niiniste.

Associated Press: McDonald's announced that it has made a final decision to leave Russia, the company's business in Russia will be sold. The company said that against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, maintaining a business in Russia is "more inappropriate and does not correspond to the values ​​of McDonald's".

The European Commission predicts a surge in inflation in the Russian Federation this year to 20.5%, in 2023 - at the level of 10%.  In addition, the fall in Russia's GDP in 2022 is projected at 10.4%.

Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs: The member of Pussy Riot Stein, who escaped from Russia, has been put on the wanted list. The search is conducted as part of a criminal case against her for calling for mass protests in 2021.

Demonstrations in support of Ukraine: Tokyo, Bangkok, Sofia

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister: Moscow would not "simply put up" with the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO.  Sweden's and Finland's plans to join NATO is a mistake "with far-reaching consequences".

Mejlis of the Crimean Tatars: On the night of May 16, unknown people "painted" the building of the occupation administration in Yevpatoriya in occupied Crimea with yellow and blue paint.  

NATIONAL

Deputy Minister of Energy:  Export of Ukrainian electricity may replace 17% of Russian natural gas consumed in the EU countries

British Intelligence Update:

●        Russia has likely resorted to an increasing reliance on indiscriminate artillery bombardment due to a limited target acquisition capability and an unwillingness to risk flying combat aircraft routinely beyond its own frontlines.

●        Scouts cite the example of the Chernihiv region, where Russians destroyed or damaged 80% of residential buildings or about 3,500 buildings.

●        The scale of this damage indicates Russia's preparedness to use artillery against inhabited areas, with minimal regard to discrimination or proportionality, experts say.

●         In the coming weeks, Russia is likely to continue to rely heavily on massed artillery strikes as it attempts to regain momentum in its advance in the Donbas.

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister: Ukraine will establish a Fund to Assist Women held in Russian captivity and Children who lost their parents during the War.

The EU has agreed to 500 million euros of new aid to the Ukrainian military. Thus, the total amount has already reached 2 billion euros. According to the Vice-President of the European Commission, this is only the "tip of the iceberg". Because EU member states, in addition to allocating these funds, are doing much more for Ukraine without a request to reimburse assistance.

211 people from Azovstal were taken to Olenevka, where they will wait for the exchange of prisoners of war.  53 seriously wounded soldiers were taken to the hospital in Novoazovsk.

Crimean Tatar Leader:  We manage to ransom Zaporizhie and Kherson activists from Russian invaders. “Now the question is how to take these activists out. Well, thank God, traditional Russian corruption saves us a little there: we manage to “buy out” some of our fellow citizens. Starts at $250 and up. So I managed, for example, to ransom 7 people.

American Foreign Policy Magazine:  Three Mi-17 helicopters arrived in Ukraine from the United States to carry out combat missions.

Ministry of Defense General Staff: The enemy is trying to restrain the offensive of the Defense Forces north of the Kharkiv city and prevent them from reaching the State border of Ukraine.

●        The efforts of the enemy aviation are focused on the destruction of objects in the Eastern Operational Zone and industrial facilities in the depths of the territory of Ukraine.

●        Defense Forces of Ukraine destroyed a field munitions base in Davydiv Brid.

●        In Mariupol, the enemy concentrated his main efforts on blocking and defeating our units in the area of the Azovstal plant. The Russian Federation continues massive artillery and air strikes.

●        In the Donbas on May 16, Ukrainian troops repulsed 11 Russian attacks.  The following were destroyed: 1 Tor anti-aircraft missile system, 5 tanks, 6 artillery systems (of which 3 MLRS), 12 armored vehicles, 1 enemy vehicle, 1 Su-25 aircraft, 3 Orlan- ten".

●        On May 16, the air defence units of the Ground Forces and the Air Force hit five air targets: a Su-25 aircraft, three operational-tactical UAVs and a cruise missile.

US Chargé d'Affaires:  Lend-lease is just a procedure to speed up the supply of weapons. So, of course, lend-lease will not lead to any insane debt for Ukraine after the war.

 'North' operational command:  For the second time in the last 3 days, the Russian troops fired on border settlements in the Chernihiv region.  Shelling was recorded in Mykolaivka. About 30 explosions were made in three hours; 7 explosions were recorded in the area of the Hremiach settlement. According to preliminary data, it was a mortar.

Prosecutor General of Ukraine:  Law enforcement officers identified 45 Russians who committed war crimes on the territory of Ukraine. Three of them are already in court.

●        announced the arrest of the assets of the Russian oligarch Mykhailo Fridman in 'Alfa-Bank' for more than 12.4 billion hryvnias.

●        A six-year-old girl was seriously wounded as a result of a morning missile strike by Russian troops in the Odesa region

Die Welt: Ukrainian Foreign Minister The Ukrainian economy suffers more from the war than the Russian one from sanctions.  "While the sanctions are very important and effective, they will not be able to stop the Russian war machine as long as Europe continues to buy Russian oil and gas.".

The Economist: Ukraine Finance Minister - If the Russian war against Ukraine continues for another 3-4 months, "painful measures" may be needed to support the economy, in particular, a significant increase in taxes, 

Ukraine Business News:  The National Bank of Ukraine is considering the return to the floating exchange rate.  Since the war started, the National Bank of Ukraine fixed the exchange rate at – UAH 29.25 / $ 1. The situation on the market has started stabilizing enough for the NBU to return to the floating exchange rate.

Ukraine Business News:  The National Council for the Recovery of Ukraine from the Consequences of the War created an advisory council that includes:

●        Professor of Political Science at Stanford University Michael McFaul,

●        Director of the EBRD Matteo Patrone

●        Former Finance Minister of Slovakia Ivan Miklos

●        Yuri Gorodnichenko, Professor of Economics at the University of California Berkeley;

●        Tymofiy Mylovanov, President of the KSE;

●        Francis Fukuyama, Professor at Stanford University;

●        Arup Banner, Regional Director of the World Bank,

●        Deputy Executive Director from Ukraine in the IMF Vladyslav Rashkovan

●        CEO of Naftogaz Yuriy Vitrenko.

Company commander of the Belarusian battalion Kastus Kalinovsky Pavel "Volat" died in the war in Ukraine while freeing one of the settlements from Russian troops.

Ukrainian Ombudsman:  The Russians are distributing 5-year-old products and expired medicines to the residents of the Kherson region as "humanitarian aid".  "At the same time, in exchange for them, they demand passport data, lists of pensioners, social workers and people simply living in a particular community."

Presidents’ Office:  The Armed Forces of Ukraine will be ready for an active counter-offensive by mid-July.

●        The Kremlin's statement about "territorial disputes" over Crimea indicates that the Russian Federation is morally preparing the population for the surrender of the peninsula.

●        There is three weeks of drinking water left in occupied Donetsk.  For this reason Russian troops will try to take Slavyansk to restore water supply.

Ukrainian Interior Ministry: Most of the Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine are from Buryatia, Tiva, North Ossetia and other territories far from the capital.  The smallest number of dead Russians are from Moscow and St. Petersburg. The authorities of the Russian Federation are doing this deliberately in order to prevent unrest in the largest cities.

●        The Russians have been instructed to prepare Energodar and the Kherson region for a "referendum", planned in a couple of months.

Verkhovna Rada Committee on Humanitarian and Information Policy: Journalists and media organizations have been officially urged to use the term 'Rashism',  The committee also proposed to include it in terminological Ukrainian language dictionaries.

Constitutional Court:  The Communist Party of Ukraine has finally ceased to exist in Ukraine.

USA Charge d'Affaires in Ukraine:  Ukraine has a chance to become a NATO member without the Membership Action Plan stage - like Finland and Sweden.  She noted that the MAP is a mechanism for a Member State to achieve the requirements for interoperability, and if any State already meets all the requirements, the Membership Action Plan becomes redundant.

Social Media: After Ukraine's victory at Eurovision 2022, the Kyiv-Ivano-Frankivsk train was named "Stefania Express". And in the city of Kalush in the Carpathian region, the train is now greeted with an appropriate song.

Institute for the Study of War:  The Russian army lost 485 soldiers and more than 80 pieces of equipment while trying to cross the Seversky Donets river.

●        Russian Army is frightened for Belgorod  Russian troops near Kharkiv are afraid of Ukrainian troops moving into the zone with which the artillery will reach the outskirts of Russian Belgorod.

●        In order to prevent this, the Russian army is notably trying to hold the border and prevent Ukrainian troops from advancing further north, which is different from previous Russian withdrawals from around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy earlier in the war.

●        Analysts suggest that the Russians might alternatively hope to conduct a counter-counter-offensive to push back south toward Kharkiv, although such an effort is highly unlikely to succeed.

State Security Service: Another intercepted phone conversation of Russian soldiers; “the war in Ukraine is hell. I dream about surviving, retiring from the army and never returning to Ukraine.”

●        Russian rocket artillery deliberately destroyed residential high-rise buildings in Kharkiv.  A Russian soldier captured in Kharkiv suburbs told the service.

●        The Service blocked production at a Dnipro plant, which was going to resume supplies for the Russian military-industrial complex

KHARKIV

Community Head:  Russians shelled the village Pechenegs near Kharkiv. As a result of the shelling by the Russian troops, 4 fires broke out in the village. One man died, another was injured.

Izium City Council: Some residents of Izium, Kharkiv, who were deported by the Russian military to Russia, were able to return to Ukraine through the countries of the European Union.

LUHANSK

Social Media: In occupied Donetsk and Luhansk, relatives of those forcibly mobilized staged public protests.  They are unhappy that men are sent to fight against their will. They also complain that the Russian army, after the retreat, abandoned "mobiles" in the Kharkov region.

●        In the Luhansk region, the Russians are taking away land and property from Ukrainian farmers, for refusal - execution.

Luhansk Regional Military Administration:  In the Bilohorovka area, the Russians lost about 100 pieces of equipment and more than 1,000 soldiers.

●        Russian troops launched artillery strikes on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk - fires in the buildings of the scientific association and residential areas. The State Emergency Service is working on the spot

●        Russian troops are shelling Severodonetsk non-stop. At least 10 people died. It is extremely difficult to check the area because of new shelling.

●        ⚡️Armed Forces of Ukraine dislodged occupiers from near Hirske and Syrotyne in the Luhansk region

●        The Russians suffered numerous casualties near Sievierodonetsk and retreated.

DONETSK

Donetsk Regional Military Administration: The Russians are in a hurry to destroy the evidence of their crimes in occupied Mariupol.  Russians began to dismantle the rubble of hospital №3, where the maternity hospital and the children's department are located, which they bombed back in March.

●        Russians killed 9 civilians in Donbas on May 16. Another 6 people were injured.

Russians promise the residents of occupied Mariupol 500,000 rubles for damaged property and 3 million rubles for the dead.  At the same time, the "authorities" do not accept applications for compensation without indicating that the housing "was destroyed by the Ukrainian military".

Adviser to the Mayor:  In Mariupol, the Russian military in April gave each resident one set of food aid calculated to provide calories for three days.

●        In 24 hours, Russians illegally deported 340 people from Mariupol to Russia, 52 of them children

Sky News:  Published a drone photo showing fresh graves in a cemetery near Mariupol. There are so many dead civilians that they are buried in trenches.

Video from social media:  A huge fire in Bakhmut (Donetsk region) after shelling by Russian troops.

In the afternoon, a Russian shell hit a warehouse in the Kharkiv region, where, according to preliminary information, ammonium nitrate was stored.  The explosion in the Kharkiv region does not pose a threat to the local population. 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

From the Institute of the Study of War (May 16) – “Frictions between Russian occupation administrations and pro-Russian collaborators is growing in occupied areas of Ukraine. The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian forces are having serious conflicts with collaborators due to interpersonal power conflicts.4   A well-known collaborator in Zaporizhia accused the Russian-installed governor of the area of stealing his 10,000-ruble compensation. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryshchenko additionally
claimed that relatives of those mobilized into the forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) are holding a mass protest against mobilization in Donetsk City. While ISW cannot independently verify these claims, such discontent amongst occupation elements suggests a general lack of planning by Russian authorities in occupied areas, now compounded by increasingly evident Russian losses.”

Operational Command Pivden (South):  The likelihood of missile strikes and landings in Odesa remains high. There are two ships with cruise missiles on board and six large landing ships in the Black Sea. The Russian troops are also trying to organize the supply of equipment to the Serpents' Island

●        The Ukrainian military destroyed an X-type cruise missile fired by a Russian fighter jet in the direction of Odessa.

Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration:  The collaborators staged a showdown with each other quarrelling over payments for May 9.  Thus, one of the collaborators, Vladimir Rogov, accused the self-proclaimed "governor" Yevgeny Balitsky of "losing" the promised payments by May 9 - 10,000 rubles each, on the way from Moscow to Melitopol.

●        According to local residents, in Energodar, the Russian military today went from apartment to apartment and took men away, tied their hands and took them away in an unknown direction. There are now reports of six abductees. During the crimes, the Russians kept all those living in apartments at gunpoint.

The head of the Gornostaevskaya community of the Kherson region said that Russian troops had left it.

Mayor:  There will be no drinking water in Mykolaiv for several more months.  According to him, technical water from the Southern Bug River will flow from taps of inhabitants of Mykolaiv at least two more months.

Odesa Regional Military Administration: ⚡️Serpents' Island (also called “Snake Island”) can be liberated from Russian troops soon.

REST OF UKRAINE

Social Media: In the center of Kyiv someone placed an inscription taped to the sidewalk.  "If you know someone who was killed by Putin, you can buy a flag and place it here." The lawn on the Maidan behind the inscription is covered with flags.

Lviv Regional Military Administration:  The Russian Army fired again at a military infrastructure facility in the Yavoriv district.

●        ⚡️During the night, the Russians launched a missile attack on the infrastructure of the regional branch «Lviv Railway» in the Yavoriv district.

●        The explosion damaged the railway infrastructure. There is no information about the injured or dead, 

Chernihiv Regional Military Administration This morning, Russian troops launched missile strikes on the Desna village in the Chernihiv region, killing and injuring a number of people.  Details later. 

Sumy Regional Administration: Russian troops launched a missile attack on Okhtyrka village of the Sumy region this morning.  Five rockets hit residential buildings and a kindergarten. Also, the windows in a church were shattered. Five people were injured. In one of the houses, people are blocked under rubble

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

www.ubn.news