Bob Homans May 12

20220513

Ukraine – 5/12 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
May 12, 2022

Today, at 5PM Eastern Daylight Time, I’ll be giving a talk about Ukraine to my Harvard College Class, during our weekly Class Zoom call.   It is the third time that I have given such a talk.  For better or worse, I’ll keep my comments to a minimum.

5/22 Sitrep (My comments in Bold Face)

Riding the coat tail of sensation.  After eleven weeks of a very visible and broadly reported war a certain numbness is starting to set in.  

Fatigue not only in Ukraine but globally is growing.  Concurrently attitude to the never-ending shock and horror has solidified into a platform ripe for political posturing.

Starting in the second or third week of this war a number of informational dimensions started limiting analytical discourse.  For one it was clear that Russia was driven by an imperialistic nineteenth century messianic vision of endless expansion without consideration of consequences.  For another broad rejection of vows taken after WWII.  Germany started reluctant rearming and adopted a warlike stance.

Most remarkable was the speed with which domestically inverted right-wing isolationism exemplified best by Trump, Le Pen and Putin lost national traction.  Citizens in multiple states discussed a foreign policy stance.  What is to be done about the war became topical in venues ranging from La Scala to Yankee Stadium and Wimbledon.

This intimate personalization brought on by an endless stream of horror in public media and fed by daily, almost hourly, pronunciations by Zelensky, transmuted foreign policy into a morality play. National governments were forced by public social consciousness to address the universal struggle between good and evil.

There are historical examples of the appearance of media messaging energizing events into black and white choices.  The printing press and the wars between reform and reformation; public radio and the fight with Nazism, and most recently rock music and the confrontation between peace, love, and the post WWII world order.  Historically as the net cast by media messaging grows wider issues become more simplified. 

In Ukraine, the morality play is occurring within the cultural horizon cast by one of the twentieth century’s most popular epics, “The Lord of the Rings”.  Ukraine’s internal dialogue about the war does not include Russia or Russians.  The dialogue is of Mordor and Orcs and their complete annihilation.

The simplicity of understanding which is driving current political decision-making carries dangers.  The gravest of these is that the right side only makes right decisions.  No debate allowed with apostles, only blind faith.  The folly in this is that fighting a war, economic development, political union, or other national acts are nuanced, complex and most definitely not simple. 

For example, the Ukrainian government, which didn’t believe that Russia would be so stupid as to invade, is currently spending money on a highway near my dacha.  The highway in question is in good condition and requires no work.

Ukraine’s government budget up to February 24, 2022 was focused on national scale road construction projects.  More could have gone to defense.  Stronger defenses as of that date would have meant less need for defense aid; also fewer dead and less horror.  But redirecting the budget means admitting it was not oriented in national interest.  Admitting mistakes and taking corrective action is not in the purview of those who are right by definition.

In my opinion the biggest mistake Ukraine has made since the start of the war was to fail to block the entrances from Crimea into Ukraine Proper.  The entrances consist of 2 isthmuses, one pointed east toward Berdyansk, and the other pointing toward west toward Kherson,  making it very easy to destroy and block road and rail links.  I have driven over the latter; it’s possible to see water on both sides of the road.   It would’ve been possible to dig a big ditch across the road.

Instead, Russian troops moved into Kherson Oblast from Crimea nearly unopposed.  They took the main bridge across the Dnieper and captured Kherson, almost without a fight.  Ukrainian troops had to fall back, to protect Mykolaiv and block Russia’s crossing of the Southern Bug River.  Kherson is now in Russian hands and with it, control of the mouth of the Dnieper River.  Russians are talking about annexing Kherson Oblast to Russia, without a referendum.   There are now Ukrainian counter offensives from Mykolaiv Oblast heading south toward Kherson, plus partisan activity inside the city.  

INTERNATIONAL

Kyodo News: On Thursday, May 12, the Japanese government decided to freeze the assets of Russian largest bank 'Sberbank' as well as 'Alfa-Bank', the largest private bank, for Russian aggression against Ukraine. In addition, Tokyo will prohibit Japanese individuals and companies from making new investments in Russia that will give them 10 percent or more. Loans with a maturity of more than one year are also subject to the ban.

Washington Post:  The US administration has developed instructions for sharing intelligence with Ukraine to avoid escalating tensions between Washington and Moscow. Specifically, the recommendations set out two broad bans on the types of information the United States can share with Ukraine.

The Guardian:  European Commission President - The Russian Federation is today the most direct threat to the world order due to the barbaric war against Ukraine and its disturbing pact with China. 

Expressen:  Sweden will apply to NATO on May 16.

Politico:  The liberal group Renew Europe in the European Parliament proposed to expand the sanctions list.  They want to add ex-Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schroeder to the list.  The former German chancellor holds senior positions in the Russian energy companies Rosneft and Gazprom.  He refused to sever relations with Moscow.

Ulusal Kanal:  The United States sent an official statement to Greece with a request to allow the deployment of F-35 and F-15 fighters on the territory of the island of Crete.  Athens is already preparing a response.  The United States also requires Greece to send weapons to Ukraine.

C-SPAN The US Congress passed a bill that will help Ukraine reduce its external debt.  The law provides benefits for a period of 7 years.  It also talks about facilitating the attraction of financial assistance from abroad.

Washington Post:  US Secretary of Commerce Due to sanctions, Russia uses chips from refrigerators and dishwashers in military equipment.

Human Rights Watch:  Russia used at least six types of cluster munitions against Ukraine.

Presidents of Poland and Slovakia will jointly tour Western European countries to convince their leaders to support the idea of granting Ukraine candidate status for EU membership.

Social Media: A resident of Dolinsk (Sakhalin), cut a "Z" symbol on an advertising poster.  The former police officer faces a fine for discrediting the Russian army.

State Department:  The United States will help Ukraine until the war stops -

Daily Express:  Russia positioned all of its missile carriers near Ukrainian borders.  Massive rocket attacks expected -

RosSMI:  Russia imposed sanctions on more than 30 companies from the European Union, the United States and Singapore in response to sanctions imposed on it.

British Prime Minister:  “The Russian attack on Ukraine changed the European security formula, changed our reality and our future. We are witnessing the end of the post-Cold War era, and the attack on Ukraine, sadly, has opened a new page.”

The Times:  Russia is attacking satellites in Earth orbit that transmit and receive GPS signals, thereby disabling even ordinary smartphones.

The International Nuclear Energy Agency:  Confirmed that Ukraine is in no way developing nuclear weapons.  “Of course, the IAEA firmly denies this ... We do this on the basis of facts, since it is possible to conduct inspections and objectively confirm that nuclear materials are not subject to modifications.”

Russian TV personality and publicist Alexander Nevzorov expressed his conviction that Russia has no future.  "The West still does not fully understand what absolute evil Ukraine is currently fighting.  It does not understand that if Ukraine were a little less resistant, then these missiles would already be flying over Rome and Paris," he added.

CNN: After two days of sharp decline, oil prices rose sharply amid information about negotiations on an embargo on Russian fuel, writes

The Russian Federation has approved a list of legal entities subject to Russian retaliatory sanctions. Most of the 31 companies on the list are subsidiaries of 'Gazprom' in Europe.

CNN:  US Joint Chiefs of Staff - Russian usage of hypersonic weapons in Ukraine had no "significant or decisive consequences".  “Apart from the speed of the weapon, in terms of its impact on a given target, we don’t see any really significant or game-changing effects to date…”.

The New York Times The meeting of EU ambassadors in Brussels on the issue of the embargo on Russian oil ended without any result today again.  According to the publication, attempts to approve the embargo again ran into fierce resistance from Hungary.

AFP:  German Chancellor It may take about 100 years for Ukraine to overcome the consequences of a long full-scale war.  “Those who live in Germany know that we still find bombs that fell during World War II... Such wars have long-term consequences - all the shells launched now can remain in the soil for years”, – he explained.

Social networks:  Unidentified people doused the Polish Embassy in Moscow with red paint.

Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb said that the country has "a 99.9% chance of joining NATO".  The decision was supported by the prime minister and the president of the country, who made a written statement on this matter.

Vice President of the European Commission: Ukraine needs 500-600 billion Euros to restore the infrastructure destroyed by the Russians.  According to him, the EU will provide great and very significant support for these reconstruction needs.

Ukrainian Ambassador to Prague:  The Senate of the Czech Republic recognized the war crimes of the Russian army as genocide of the Ukrainian people.

International Labor Organization:  Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, almost 5 million people have lost their jobs.  The organization estimates that if the fighting escalates, job losses will rise to 7 million people.

Slovak Radio:  Slovak Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister insists on granting the republic a three-year transitional period to join the embargo on oil imports from the Russian Federation, if it is introduced by the EU.

Russian Defense Ministry accused the American pharmaceutical giants Pfizer and Moderna of participating in "US military biological activities in Ukraine."

DW:   Turkey expects 100,000 tourists from Ukraine this year. In 2021, there were 2 million Ukrainian tourists.

Financial Times:  Brussels plans to allocate 195 billion Euros to wean the EU from Russian sources of energy.

Ministry of Defense of Kazakhstan:  Representatives of Kazakhstan and Turkey signed an agreement on military cooperation.

Russian Foreign Ministry: "The Polish ambassador was told that after the attack on the Russian ambassador, Moscow is waiting for an official apology from the leadership of Poland and demands to ensure the safety of employees of Russian foreign missions."

The President of Czech Republic:  Allowed 103 citizens of the republic to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

British Prime Minister:  The United Kingdom has signed an agreement on mutual security guarantees with Finland and Sweden.

European Business Association:  Sales of cars in Russia in April 2022 fell by 78.5%, compared to April 2021.

Politico The European Commission will present a legal proposal in two weeks to make evading sanctions an EU crime.

Süddeutsche Zeitung: The yacht of Russian billionaire, Putin’s ally, Farhad Akhmedov was detained in the port of Hamburg.

UN Secretary-General:  During his visit to Austria, called for an end to Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine.  "This senseless war must end."

Spokesman for the President of the Russian Federation:  Putin has no plans to impose martial law in Russia amid a special operation in Ukraine.

·       Russian annexation of Kherson must have a clear legal basis.

Hirado hu: Hungarian Foreign Minister said that Budapest is ready to support the oil embargo against Russia, if it applies only to oil delivered by vessels.

Russian Foreign Minister:  The goals of the Special Military Operation are to protect the residents of the Donbas from the Kiev neo-Nazi regime and to ensure that the West does not pose a military threat to Russia's security from Ukraine.

·       Russia does not want war with Europe but it is the West that says that Russia must be defeated.

Ukraine Support Tracker:  Estonia and Latvia have already given Ukraine almost a third of their defense budgets.

NATIONAL

British Intelligence: Ukrainian forces continue counterattacks north of Kharkiv, recapturing several cities and villages in the direction of the Russian border.  Transfer of Russian forces to the Donbas makes the units stationed in the Kharkiv region vulnerable to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.  Despite the success of the Russian Federation in the encirclement of Kharkiv in the initial stages of the conflict, the Russian troops withdrew units from the region to reorganize and replenish their forces after heavy losses.  Now the Russians are likely to deploy a barrier on the eastern bank of the Seversky Donets River to protect the western flank of the main Russian forces and the main supply routes for operations in the Izyum region.  The withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kharkiv region is a tacit admission of Russia's inability to capture key Ukrainian cities, where limited popular resistance was expected.

Minister of Finance:  The World Bank will provide Ukraine with about $200 million monthly.  The money will be used to pay civil servants and teachers. 

CNN provided video from surveillance cameras, in which the Russian military shot two unarmed civilians in the back.  Before that, they searched the Ukrainians and made sure that they were unarmed and civilians.  This happened on March 16 in the Kyiv region.

President's Office:  The Chinese leadership held consultations and concluded that Ukraine, as a result of this war, can return all its territories, including Crimea and Donbass.

Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources:  Stated that it has documented 231 environmental crimes by the Russian army.

Deputy Prime Minister Ukraine offered to exchange seriously wounded soldiers from Azovstal for captured Russians.  According to her, there are no clear agreements yet.

Ministry of Infrastructure:  Ukraine and Poland have agreed to simplify the passage of cargo at the border, which will speed up the flow of humanitarian and other goods.

Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine maintains that the war has moved into the second phase, where Ukraine will face an extremely difficult and lengthy stage of struggle until the territories within internationally recognized borders are completely liberated.  She added that the Russian Federation, thanks to the existing stocks of mainly Soviet weapons, can afford to wage a "long intensive war".

·       The Armed Forces of Ukraine have already begun to use the weapons that the allies provided to Kyiv, including American howitzers.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister:  Ukraine invited Germany to take part in the restoration of one of the regions affected by Russian aggression.

Spiegel Online:  The Bundeswehr (Armed Forces of Germany) began training Ukrainian military on Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer guns.

Ministry of Internal Affairs:   Germany will contribute to the creation of a joint European mission for demining in Ukraine.

Ministry of Digital Development Ukraine: has entered the top 20 countries in the world in terms of data ecosystem development.  He specified that by the number of points Ukraine is level with Australia and Finland.

Kyiv School of Economics:  Losses from the destruction of 27 oil depots in Ukraine amount to $227 million as of May 10.  The total amount of documented damage as a result of Russian aggression is more than $94.3 billion.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:   Russia plans to seize Kyiv in the future, create a new state entity and include it in the Russian Federation.

·       The operation to de blockade the Ukrainian military in Azovstal in Mariupol will require the efforts of a large number of troops and may lead to significant losses.

·       The community of Pytomnyk in Kharkiv region was liberated.

·       In Donetsk region, the enemy is focused on gaining full control over the Rubizhne city and conducting an offensive in the direction of the Lyman settlement.

·       The enemy is trying to hold positions on the right bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. He also continues to prepare for an offensive in the directions of the settlements of Kurakhove and Novopavlivka

·       Russian troops carried out assaults on Orekhiv and Toshkivka in Luhansk region, but they failed.

·       In Mariupol, the main efforts of the Russians are focused on blocking and trying to destroy Ukrainian units in the area of the Azovstal plant.

·       Since the beginning of the war, 788 cruise and ballistic missiles have been fired from Russia and Belarus at Ukraine.  During May alone, 49 missile strikes were recorded from Russian territory.

·       Ukrainian defenders today repulsed 5 Russian attacks in the "Shid" (East) operational-tactical group.

·        The military liquidated up to 250 Russian soldiers, 6 tanks, 1 infantry fighting vehicle, 2 armored personnel carriers, 2 armored combat vehicles and 7 ATTs, and also destroyed an ammunition depot and an observation post.

·       Russian troops carried out artillery shelling of Gorodnyansky district of Chernihiv region and launched an air strike on a settlement in the Shostkinsky district of Sumy region.

BFMTV  Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine:  Half of the soldiers defending Azovstal were seriously wounded. They need immediate medical attention.

National Guard of Ukraine:  501 National Guard soldiers have died, 1697 have been injured since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion.

National Police:  Since the beginning of the war, 88 groups of saboteurs have been exposed and 757 suspects have been detained. Of these, 676 people were transferred to Ukrainian Intelligence.

·       Since the beginning of the war, 33 people have died as a result of Russian shelling of evacuation columns, including five children.  Law enforcement officers have recorded 45 such attacks since the opening of "green corridors", 74 criminal cases have been opened.

Gas Transportation System of Ukraine:  In occupied Ukrainian territories, without authorization Russian military blocked the valves of the Shebelynka-Novopskov gas pipeline, through which gas was transported to the gas pipelines of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

British Ambassador to Ukraine visited Irpin, tweeting it was a horror story.

State Border Guard:  Ukraine has restored control over a 1,200-kilometer section of its border, two-thirds of which is the border with Russia.

Military Intelligence:  Intercepted communication of Russian Forces indicates that Russian soldiers demand that the command keep their participation in the invasion secret as they fear they may lose.

·       In Trostyanka, Sumy region, investigators found Russian military documents confirming Russia's intentions to seize all of Ukraine.

·       Ukrainian courts seized 126 cars, 3 plots of land and dozens of buildings worth 80 million hryvnias, which belong to the enterprises of relatives of former MPs Viktor Medvedchuk and Taras Kozak.  Both are charged with treason.

Security Service of Ukraine, 6 Russian soldiers were sentenced to 8-15 years in Ukrainian prisons for war crimes.

KHARKIV

Kharkiv Regional Military Administration:  Wednesday morning, Russian troops shelled the villаge Novyi Merchyk in Bohoduhivskyi region.  One person injured.

·       Russian troops stopped shelling Kharkiv for the second day.  But, at the same time, they continue to strike at other settlements in the region.

·       The invaders fired at the village of Mala Danylivka from multiple launch rocket systems. This morning the enemy launched a missile attack on Derhachi. Unfortunately, one person died, 3 injured".

In Donbas, Russian occupiers blocked access to Facebook and Instagram.

Luhansk Regional Military Administration:  The Russians have become more active, they are trying to break into Severodonetsk, completely capture Rubizhne, cut off the Lugansk region from the "mainland", taking control of the Lisichansk-Bakhmut highway.  The key word is "trying".

·       The humanitarian situation in the Luhansk region is on the verge of catastrophe, and it is difficult to bring humanitarian aid because of the shelling.  Mobile communication does not work, so the region is cut off from information from the outside.

·       The Russians also pumped out gas at the distribution station in Novopskov and turned off the taps, which will leave the entire region without gas in a couple of days.

·       Russian troops have taken control of the village of Voevodivka

Donetsk Regional Military Administration As a result of shelling by Russian troops, 2 civilians of Donbas were wounded today: in New York and Novoselovka. 

Ukrainian artillery destroyed the Russian pontoon bridge on the Siverskyi Donets river and smashed Russian military equipment of the Russian Federation.

Adviser to the mayor of Mariupol:  Ukrainians who fail Russian filtration are held in confinement, receive a bottle of water for a dozen of people daily. Food is not every day. Toilet - once a day. Outdoor walks are not included. All this is accompanied by lengthy interrogations, torture, threats of execution and coercion to cooperate.

·       People are taken to the premises of the former correctional colony No. 52 in Olenivka village, Donetsk region, or to the 'Izolation' prison in Donetsk. They are kept there for at least 36 days.  The prison premises are overcrowded - with a limit of 850 people, at least 3 thousand are kept there. Mostly from Mariupol and the Mariupol district.

Russian shelling in Kramatorsk damaged a train full of ammonium nitrate fertilizer releasing toxic fumes.  The city military administration asks to limit amount of time spent outside and close the windows for a day.

·       Ukrainian soldiers have chemical poisoning symptoms after shelling by Russians of the ammonium nitrate train.

Azov Regiment in Azovstal: Mariupol, reports that 38 flights over the territory of the Azovstal plant over the past 24 hours, including 4 flights of strategic bombers.  Russian troops continue to carry out daily assaults with infantry support.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:  The threat of a Russian landing near Odesa from the Black Sea remains.

·       At least fifty sea-based missiles are ready for a missile strike. The Russian ship group is in constant readiness.

Mykolaiv regional council:  On Wednesday as a result of Russian attacks in Mykolaiv area nine people were wounded.

Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration:  Russian soldiers are disobeying orders, they don’t want to go to the “meat grinder” - this is a mass phenomenon on all fronts.

Institute for the Study of War:  Russians can resume the offensive to capture all of Kherson if they succeed in regrouping.

The quisling Kherson military-civil administration will ask Putin to include the region in Russia.

·       In occupied Kherson region, mobile communications and the Internet constantly disappear.  The Russian military is deliberately blocking the ability of people to receive news and communicate with each other.  Russia can only impose their “achievements” in an information vacuum!  But now the Security service of Ukraine, together with mobile operators, are working on sending a signal to the Kherson region, so this plan of the occupiers will collapse.

Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration

·       Russians fired on the Dnipropetrovsk region three times today from 'Hrads’, there are damages, but no one was hurt.

·       Russians fired banned cluster munitions at the solar power plant in Maryanske.  And in the village of Velyka Kostromka, a house was damaged.

Zaporozhie Regional Military Administration: 

·       Russian troops shelled houses in a village near Zaporizhzhia.

·       Russian troops launched 18 missile strikes on the village of Kamyshevakha.  60 homes were damaged. One person died, three were injured

Ukrainian Intelligence prevented a terrorist attack in Zaporizhzhia and detained its perpetrator.  The attacker turned out to be a resident of Dnipro, born in 1966. He wanted to sow chaos and panic in Zaporizhzhia and planned a crime at a crowded facility in the city center. The man made the explosive device himself and disguised it as a crutch.

Krivoy Rih Regional Military Administration:  Night shelling by the Russian troops, including the use of prohibited phosphorus and cluster munitions.  At about 07.00 in the morning, the city of Zelenodolsk was hit by ballistic rocket systems.  Damage is being specified.  1 dead - civilian, 1 wounded - also civilian.

REST OF UKRAINE

'Segodnya':   Russian-made trains will be removed from the Kyiv subway.  In total, 821 carriages currently operate on the Kyiv subway. 726 in different years were manufactured at factories located in the Russian Federation. The International Association of Public Transport promises to help with the modernization and replacement of trains.

Prosecutor General of Ukraine:  The first Russian soldier will appear in court for the murder of a civilian in the Sumy region.

Chernihiv Regional State Administration: Wednesday morning, Russian troops shelled the Chernihiv region with mines. The attack was carried out from the territory of Russia.

Nizhyn Mayor:  A monument to Soviet policemen is being demolished in Nizhyn, Chernihiv region. 

Social Media Russians shelled of the city of Novgorod-Seversky, Chernihiv region.

Poltava Regional Military Administration:  The region was hit by a missile attack from a Russian aircraft: details of destruction and victims is being clarified.

·       At night, Russian missiles hit Karlovka: infrastructure has been destroyed.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

www.ubn.news