Bob Homans March 5

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Ukraine – 3/5/23 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
March 5, 2023

Timothy Ash’s Latest Blog – “Time is Not on Putin’s Side”/Substack

Personally, I have never particularly understood the narrative du jour, that time is on Putin’s side.   One thing that has not really changed since before the start of Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine – the Russia–centric narrative coming from the pundits.   The narrative that time is on Russia’s side is only the latest example being put forward by the same pundits who said that Ukraine would surrender in 5 days.

Timothy Ash does a great service in his latest blog, by blowing verbal holes in the pundits’ latest narrative.   I saw another example of this narrative today, where a journalist from a national newspaper argued that Russia’s use of prisoners as “cannon fodder,” as they’re doing around Bakhmut, would exhaust Ukrainian forces and adversely affect Ukraine’s ability to conduct offensive operations.   This is an incredible statement, because:

·       The journalist is suggesting that Russia major offensive weapon, one that will turn the war in their favor when all their other capabilities of waging war have failed, consists of nothing more than 50,000 untrained prisoners.

·       The journalist is suggesting that Bakhmut is the only battle that is currently taking place, effectively ignoring battles around Kreminna, Avdiivka, Vulhudar, the latter being a battle that Ukraine won decisively, the drone attacks on territory inside the Russian Federation, and long-range rocket attacks that have destroyed Russian installations near Mariupol.

In his blog, Ash also mentions a subject that I have brought up several times since before Russia’s latest invasion started, that Ukraine will never accept loss of territory and they will continue to fight.   As Ash states –

“I would argue that Ukrainians will likely continue to fight, even if Western support slows. They will continue to fight as simply they have nowhere else to go. They are fighting for their land and people. Putin has made clear he does not respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, it’s right to exist or that of the Ukrainian people to exist. So, Ukrainians have no choice but to resist, and Putin would face a nightmarish scenario of trying to take and hold Ukraine, against bitter partisan opposition likely for years to come. Russia would be bogged down in bitter fighting for years, if not decades to come.   This is Ukraine’s State of Israel moment, and like with Israelis, Ukrainians feel they simply have nowhere else to go.”

And –

“I can construct a scenario where Ukraine fails in its counteroffensives and then 2-3 years down the line Western support is pulled back and Russia then takes the advantage over Ukraine. But it would be a long haul for Russian troops, and it’s hard to see the long war narrative being appealing to Moscow. The long haul means years of conflict for Russia, as noted above millions of casualties, no hope of sanctions moderation, economic decline, guns versus butter economic choices, collapsing living standard, out migration, a skills shortage, productivity decline if not collapse. It means rising social problems, rising crime, and likely rising divisions within society and across the Federation - risks of centrifugal forces with new independence movements emerging in the South. Sure, this can be met with yet more repression, but that likely just means more outmigration, further economic decline. Rinse, repeat.”

Beyond a “State of Israel” moment, it is a moment reflecting back into Ukrainian history, at least to Ukrainian partisans who fought the Soviets for over 7 years after the end of WW-II.  They did it without any Western support.   A similar undertaking today would continue to have substantial support, from Poland, the Baltics, the Nordic countries, plus the Ukrainian Diaspora living throughout Europe, the United States and Canada.  

In a sense, the West has “nowhere to go,” either.  I think Pres. Biden has made the same assessment, by his gesture to go to Kyiv at some personal risk to himself.

For Russia, the situation in which they will find themselves will be similar to the American folk tale the “Tar-Baby,” with Russia as Br’er Rabbit, and Ukraine Br’er Fox.   As Wikipedia aptly describes the tale, “In modern usage, tar-baby refers to a problematic situation that is only aggravated by additional involvement with it.”

Ash concludes –

“Putin would be a fool to extend this conflict beyond this year, and I would still argue that his preference will be to try and conclude a peace deal this year - he would love a ceasefire to freeze current territorial settings, but Ukraine will never do that. Ukraine wants a lasting peace, with Russian forces ousted from Ukraine and sufficient security guarantees extended to provide a deterrence against a future Russian attack. Ukraine will resist a ceasefire and frozen conflict for more substantive peace talks, but I don’t see the long war threat from Putin being at all realistic. It surely brings more threats to Putin’s power, than actually trying to cobble together some peace deal now.”

I agree with Ash, that the war will end in 2023.  There will be a peace deal but only after Ukraine wins on the battlefield.   The threat to Putin from extending a fight that Russia will be seen to have lost will then come from within Russia, and the only choice left to Putin will be agree to Ukraine’s 10-Point peace deal, or something very similar, along with substantial security guarantees for Ukraine similar to what exists with Israel.

News From the Battefield

Both “Reporting From Ukraine” and the “Latest Denys” focus on Bakhmut.  Previous reports have suggested that Ukraine has been withdrawing troops from Bakhmut for the past few weeks, especially from the eastern bank of the river that bisects Bakhmut and where Ukraine blew up one of the two bridges it destroyed yesterday.  

Ukraine has reportedly brought up reserves, likely to help man the defense line Ukraine is building on high ground west of Bakhmut, that “Reporting From Ukraine” describes here.   In a previous post, “Reporting From Ukraine” stated that Ukraine had used HIMARS rockets to destroy Wagner Group ammunition dumps that had likely been recently replenished with additional artillery shells supplied by the Russian Defense Ministry.

3/5/23 Sitrep (my comments in bold face)

Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon March 3 to 12:00 noon March 5, 2023

Abbreviations:

RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine

RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders

INTERNATIONAL

March 5

10:37 AM RTL Nieuws: The Netherlands is investigating 45 criminal cases to circumvent EU sanctions against Russia.

·       29 out of 45 open proceedings are related to violations of import and export sanctions. In particular, Dutch law enforcement officers stopped the supply of drones and microchips to the Russian Federation through third countries. Other investigations involve violations of financial constraints.

09:36 NBC: The first pilots from Ukraine arrived in the United States to train themselves in the control of the F-16.

·       U.S. authorities approved the visit of 10 Ukrainian pilots to the United States this month.

·       Now we are talking about simulators of these fighters, the number of pilots is small, but this is the first such trip.

09:06 CNN: China's defense budget increased to $224 billion in 2023.

·       China has unveiled its annual military budget for 2023, which will increase by 7.2% to about 1.55 trillion yuan ($224 billion), according to the draft report.

08:00 The transfer of fighters to Ukraine is only a matter of time, says Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins in an interview with Spiegel.

00:50: A student from the Netherlands in support of Ukraine on February 24, 2023 rode a bicycle of 365 kilometers, symbolizing the year of Russia's war in Ukraine.

·       Now the Dutchman has collected more than 7800 euros, the amount is growing almost daily, because the fee is still open.

·       The funds raised by the Dutchman will be directed directly to the Zeilen van Vrijheid Foundation, a charity that supports brave doctors, ambulance services and hospital staff in Ukraine so that they can save as many lives as possible.

March 4

22:40 Reuters: Iran has guaranteed its readiness to cooperate with the IAEA.

·       According to the publication, Iran intends to allow the agency to carry out inspection and monitoring activities. The terms will be agreed at a later date.

21:19 Ceske Noviny: Newly elected Czech President Petr Pavel plans to visit Ukraine in April this year.

19:49: 90 American Stryker combat vehicles for Ukraine have already arrived in Germany, — Military Agenda.

19:29: The United Kingdom has decided to double the promised number of Challenger 2 tanks for Ukraine, said The Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom Vadym Prystaiko.

·       "We were promised 14 tanks, and as a result of the visit of President Zelenskyy, it was agreed that this number would double," Prystaiko said.

15:13: Saudi Arabia has sent $100 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which includes powerful generators, warm blankets and hygiene products, the President's Office said.

2:58 The Economist: China is furious at Russia over their discussions on arms sales being made public.

·       According to the publication, China wanted any support for Russia to remain secret, because it knows that support for the Russian Federation would undermine its claim to be a neutral mediator. Namely, this is exactly what China indicated in its "peace plan", which was published on February 24.

09:54 Der Spiegel: The decision to build a Rheinmetall tank production plant in Ukraine may be made in the next 2 months

·       "The Rheinmetall plant can be built in Ukraine for about 200 million euros," said the head of the company Papperger.

08: EU will send 5700 solar panels to Ukraine, says European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. This is only the first batch of a wider supply of solar panels within the framework of providing Ukraine with renewable energy sources.

00:41: Biden prepares replacement for General Mark Milley

·       According to the NYT, Biden may soon announce a candidate for chairman of the Committee of Chiefs of Staff instead of Gen. Mark Milley.

·       His powers expire in the fall of 2023. Currently, he is also a member of the contact group on the defense of Ukraine in the "Ramstein" format from the United States.

March 3

23:41: The International Gymnastics Federation has extended a ban on Russian and Belarusian athletes participating in its competitions.

·       However, it is noted that "the federation will constantly monitor the overall situation and may change this decision, depending on the development of events."

23:27 Reuters: If China puts up weapons to Russia, it will be an absolute "red line" and the EU will respond with sanctions, a senior European Union official said.

·       "The comments echo the statements of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday, who warned Beijing against providing such assistance to Moscow," the agency writes.

22:54: U.S. President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met Friday at the White House.

·       Both leaders praised each other's support for Ukraine and pledged to continue to support Ukraine as long as necessary.

22:12 El Pais: Ukrainian refugees in Spain have not yet received cash assistance of 400 euros per month due to bureaucracy.

·       Payments have not yet been made in the regions of Valencia, Catalonia and Madrid, the publication writes.

·       In these regions, there are more than two-thirds of the 168 thousand Ukrainians registered by the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

21:45: Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with prosecutors general from international institutions and partner countries of Ukraine.

·       "True justice will come when all those responsible for the crimes of aggression are brought to justice under the law," the president wrote.

20:36: The United States imposes sanctions on 6 Russian citizens working in the Russian justice system.

·       The corresponding list is published on the website of the US Department of Finance.

19:34: The United States is allocating a new $400 million military assistance package to Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

·       The new US military assistance package for Ukraine will include missiles for MLRS HIMARS, Bradley IFVs, howitzers, ammunition and tank bridgelayers.

19:07: Two men accused of selling aviation technology to Russian companies circumventing sanctions have been arrested in the United States.

·       This was reported on the website of the US Department of Justice.

·       "The company also provided services for the repair of equipment used in Russian-made aircraft," the Ministry of Justice added.

16:29: Ukraine has sent more than 100 tons of humanitarian aid to Turkey for families affected by recent earthquakes, says Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.

14:26 Financial Times: The EU plans to send scarce munitions to Ukraine in the coming weeks.

·       The publication reports that all EU countries, except Denmark, have joined the project of joint procurement for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

12:11 Bloomberg: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrives Friday in Washington, D.C., where he will hold talks with U.S. President Joe Biden.

·       The meeting will discuss support for Ukraine and the actions of China, which, as the United States fears, could provide military assistance to Russia.

NATIONAL

March 5

11:42 Ukrenergo: There is no shortage of electricity capacity for the last 3 weeks and is not predicted for the near future.

·       The volume of electricity produced is enough to meet the needs of all consumers in the country.

·       Due to gusty strong winds, damage in the networks of regional power distribution companies and the associated temporary cessation of power supply are possible.

09:50 Operational Command South: Natalia Gumeniuk, a spokeswoman for OK South, warned of the threat of targeted missile attacks

·       Natalia Gumeniuk noted that the number of missile carriers on combat duty in the Black Sea, including the presence of underwater ones, indicates Russia's preparations for a missile attack.

07:09 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

·       "Over the past day, the enemy launched 6 missile and 24 air strikes, carried out more than 65 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems, in particular on civilian infrastructure. There are civilians killed and wounded.

·       The enemy focuses its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsky directions. Last day, our defenders repulsed more than 130 enemy attacks in these areas."

·       In the city of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region, Russians use civilians as a "human shield."

·       In particular, in order to shoot down weapons that are intended for military facilities of the Russian Federation, their troops place their air defense systems among residential areas of the city.

·       The Russian army is losing control on the battlefield over the so-called "Cossack battalions", - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

·       In particular, around Vuhledar, the Russian Cossack battalion "Step/Tiger" performs tasks, the command of which is extremely dissatisfied with the leadership of the Russian Armed Forces and neglects interaction with units of the Russian army.

·       During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces inflicted 18 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the Russian Federation, as well as 2 strikes on anti-aircraft missile systems, 1 - on the ammunition depot and 1 - on the road bridge - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

·       Also, Ukrainian defenders shot down 4 reconnaissance and strike UAVs of various types.

·       During the day, units of the missile forces and artillery struck 3 areas of concentration of Russians, 2 positions of anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as 2 EW stations.

March 4

23:15: As of March 5, Ukrenergo did not impose restrictions on electricity consumption.

·       This allows you not to turn off the lights in Kyiv, Kyiv, Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk regions. However, due to damage to Ukrenergo's networks, scheduled outages are possible in some energy centers if electricity consumption increases.

21:00: Today, Olena Zelenska took part in the panel "Combating sexual violence as a weapon of war" at the United for Justice forum.

·       "I told the participants about the shocking cases of abuse of the Russian military against Ukrainians.

·       Because the most important thing for us now, except to provide psychological assistance to everyone and everyone, is to guarantee them justice: offenders will be punished," she wrote.

20:43: The Verkhovna Rada will consider the return of a surcharge of 30 thousand hryvnias to the military, regardless of the place of service.

·       The relevant bill has already been registered in the Verkhovna Rada.

18:33 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on March 4:

·       "During the day, the enemy inflicted 4 missile and 10 air strikes, carried out 4 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems.

·       In particular, in residential buildings and civilian infrastructure of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population."

·       "The enemy focuses its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsky directions.

·       It continues unsuccessful offensive operations in the area of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka and Vuhledar."

·       "In the temporarily occupied Horlivka, Donetsk region, from March 5, Russians plan to start another wave of mobilization of local residents to the ranks of the Russian occupation forces.

·       All heads of educational institutions were given a written instruction from the Russian occupation administration to register men from 1995 to 2005."

·       "Forced passportization of the population of the temporarily occupied and occupied territory of Luhansk region continues.

·       Thus, the occupiers imposed restrictions on free movement between settlements for all civilians who do not have a passport of a citizen of the Russian Federation.

·       Starobilsk, Rubizhne and Stanytsia Luhanska fell under the restrictions."

·       "In the temporarily captured by Russia city of Enerhodar, at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, there is now a catastrophic lack of professional workers who can ensure the life of a nuclear power plant.

·       The Russian occupiers employ persons without appropriate education and experience at nuclear power plants, which can lead to unpredictable consequences."

·       "During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces inflicted 12 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers, as well as 2 strikes on anti-aircraft missile systems and 1 - on the enemy's ammunition depot."

18:08: Registration of school graduates for the national multidisciplinary test will begin in April.

·       This was announced by Deputy Director of the Ukrainian Center for Educational Quality Assessment Tetiana Vakulenko.

·       According to her, registration will take place in electronic format, so participants will need to upload their documents to a special service. There will be no submission of documents by mail.

17:17: Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke at a meeting of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of Ukraine.

·       "Today we not only summarize the key results of the work of state institutions and local authorities during the most difficult year for our state - the year of the war, but also determine solutions to make our state even stronger," the president wrote after the meeting.

16:57: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, together with President of the European Parliament Roberta Metzola, talked to students of higher education institutions in the Lviv region.

·       "Because of the war, Ukraine faced the need to renovate the educational network, primarily in the affected regions.

·       The educational space and educational process in Ukraine should become more modern," the President wrote.

16:25: Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny met with the Chief of the Defense Staff of the Canadian Armed Forces, General Wayne Eyre.

·       "We discussed the issue of supplying military assistance: weapons and ammunition.

·       Canada and Ukraine will continue to develop cooperation in the field of security and defense," Zaluzhny wrote.

13:25: Special forces of the SBU Special Operations Center "A" burned 8 more units of enemy equipment overnight: 5 tanks, 2 infantry fighting vehicles, one truck with ammunition, the SBU said.

13:01: In the Black Sea, 16 Russian ships are on alert, of which 3 are carriers of cruise missiles "Kalibr", the total volley of which is 16 missiles.

·       According to the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russians also deployed 1 ship in the Sea of Azov, and 10 in the Mediterranean, of which 5 are carriers of "Kalibr" cruise missiles, the total volley of which is 72 missiles.

·       "There can be a threat at any time," yurii Ignat, a representative of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said about the situation at sea.

·       "Missile launches can be carried out from any sea - Azov or Black, without leaving the bay. The reports say that they went to sea. Whether they came out or did not come out - they are constantly there, and therefore there can be a threat at any time - this is how this information should be perceived," said Yuri Ignat.

11:29: Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with President of the European Parliament Roberta Metzola in Lviv:

·       "Thank you for your leadership in supporting Ukraine from the first days of this terrible war and the important decisions taken by the European Parliament."

·       He noted that Ukraine seeks to complete the implementation of the recommendations of the European Commission as soon as possible and start negotiations on joining the EU this year.

11:12 Ukrenergo: There has been no shortage of capacity in the power system for 21 consecutive days and is not currently predicted.

·       Ukrenergo's repair crews will begin additional repairs at power facilities in the Odessa region tomorrow, which will increase the reliability of power supply to the Odessa region. Therefore, during Sunday, as well as on Monday, temporary restrictions on consumption are possible.

09:05 Financial Times: Ukraine has asked the EU to send Kyiv 250,000 artillery shells a month, citing a letter from Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov.

·       "If we were not limited by the number of artillery shells available, we could use all the ammunition, which is 594,000 shells per month.According to our estimates, for the successful completion of tasks on the battlefield, the minimum need is at least 60 percent of the complete ammunition, or 356,400 shells per month," Reznikov concluded.

08:35: Head of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola arrives in Kyiv

·       "It's good to be with those who have sacrificed everything for our values. With Europeans whose home is the European Union," she wrote on Twitter.

·       She met with the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Ruslan Stefanchuk.

07:25 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

·       "Over the past day, the Russian Federation has carried out 32 air and 6 missile strikes, carried out 84 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems, in particular, on civilian infrastructure.

·       The enemy focuses its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsky directions. Last day, our defenders repulsed more than 150 enemy attacks on them."

·        In Simferopol of the temporarily occupied Republic of Crimea, the Russian occupation authorities, fearing the intensification of the pro-Ukrainian movement, are creating so-called "voluntary wives", - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

·       It is known that due to the war in Ukraine, there is a certain shortage of law enforcement officers, therefore, in addition to patrolling the city, one of the tasks of these units should be to identify correctors and saboteurs.

·       The Russian occupation army suffers significant losses in manpower every day, - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

·       Recently, one of the hospitals in the city of Gorlovka received instructions to increase the beds for receiving wounded Russian servicemen.

·       Last day, Ukrainian aviation inflicted 14 strikes on areas of concentration of Russian personnel and military equipment, as well as 2 - on anti-aircraft missile systems in firing positions. Also, Ukrainian defenders shot down a Su-34 aircraft and 8 reconnaissance and strike UAVs of various types, - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

·       Units of rocket troops and artillery, in turn, hit the control point, 3 areas of concentration of Russians, an ammunition depot, 2 fuel depots, as well as an electronic warfare station of the Russian Federation.

00:54: IDPs in Ukraine can receive assistance from the Norwegian Council

·       The amount of assistance is 6660 UAH. and will be paid within 3 months for 2220 UAH. for each family member, but not more than five people. The priority is to provide assistance to the most vulnerable categories of the population.

·       Payments will be made to a bank account or via a MoneyGram transfer for people who do not have a bank account. Registration will last until March 20.

00:06 Foreign Minister: To date, 29 countries are already part of a coalition that supports the creation of a special tribunal for Russia.

·       "If at the beginning the conversation about the tribunal did not arouse much enthusiasm and was abstract, now we have already built a coalition of countries that is working substantively on the parameters of the future tribunal."

March 3

22:25: The Cabinet of Ministers supported the confiscation of Viktor Yanukovych's property in favor of the State Property Fund.

·       This was reported by the press service of the State Property Fund.

·       According to the department, an apartment and two parking spaces in Kiev, three buildings, a residential building and two land plots in Donetsk, non-residential buildings in Yalta, the ship "Brig" and two cars are transferred to their management.

21:32: The commander of the Eastern Group of Forces, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, works in the units that are currently defending Bakhmut.

·       This was reported by the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

·       "The Russian occupiers threw the most trained units of the Wagner PMC and other regular units of the Russian army to seize the city. Intense fighting is taking place in and around the city itself," the statement said.

20:49: Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the participants of the United for Justice conference in Lv’iv.

·       "Let today here in Lviv sound and support all that we still lack, so that one day we can absolutely exhaustively say: the killers are punished, the dignity and honor of the people are protected, the harm is compensated, justice has won."

18:41 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on March 3:

·       "During the day, the enemy launched 30 air and 6 missile strikes, carried out more than 20 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems, in particular, on civilian infrastructure.

·       The enemy focuses its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Kupyansk, Liman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsky directions."

·       "In Luhansk region, the so-called occupation authorities continue to put pressure on the local population, in particular on the least protected strata.

·       In the settlements of the Svatovsky district, the invaders deprived people of the opportunity to receive pensions and other social benefits by disconnecting ATMs."

·       "Pensioners and other categories of the population in need of social protection are invited to receive cash payments on certain days.

·       However, because of such an organization, people for the most part are physically unable to receive money."

·       "During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces inflicted 5 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers.

·       Also, our defenders shot down an enemy Su-34 and ZALA-type UAV.

·       "During the day, units of rocket troops and artillery hit the control point, 3 areas of concentration of the enemy, an ammunition depot, 2 fuel depots, as well as an enemy EW station."

18:20: Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Gukstra and Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu.

·       "We discussed the importance of further increasing sanctions pressure on Russia," the president wrote after the meeting.

17:47: Ukraine uses its own-made Vilkha-M MLRS, whose guided missiles have a longer range than HIMARS.

·       This was stated by First Deputy Chairman of the National Defense Industry Association Ivan Vinnyk.

·       "The Vilkha-M has a range of 110 km and a warhead weighing 220 kg, which can hit targets with great accuracy," Vinnik said.

·       These are the weapons that may have been used by Ukraine to destroy Russian troop concentrations and ammunition dumps near Mariupol, because they were out of range of HIMARS missiles currently in Ukraine’s possession.  If so, the following is true:

o   No portion of the “land bridge,” constituting temporarily occupied territory between the mouth of the Dnieper River and Mariupol are beyond the range of Ukraine’s long-range missiles.

o   The restriction placed by the US, on using HIMARS to strike territory within the Russian Federation, does not apply to missiles produced by Ukraine.  

o   Additionally, this restriction has never applied to Crimea, which is temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory.

17:32: Russia is currently unable to produce A-50 radar aircraft, said Andrei Yusov, a spokesman for the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.

·       "There were about 10 different modifications of such aircraft in total. Another thing, not how many of them there are, but the ability to produce them.

·       As of today, the degraded industry of the Russian Federation is not capable of producing new similar aircraft with similar tasks," Yusov said.

·       According to a recent report by Denys, Russia only has 6 operational A-50 aircraft in its inventory.

17:17: Diia, Ukraine’s app that allows Ukrainian citizens to use digital documents in their smartphones instead of physical ones for identification and sharing purposes, has launched a survey in which Ukrainians are asked to choose a new name for the Southwestern Railway by March 10.

·       There are four options: the Kyiv Railway, the Metropolitan Railway, the Central Railway and the Northern Railway.The Southwestern Railway is the name of the times of the Russian Empire, when Ukraine considered it the southwestern part.

16:40: "Ukrainian team" opens a collection for 100 domestically produced kamikaze drones. These "evil birds" will carry not only explosives on their wings, but also your personal wish

16:16: The SBU exposed a dealer who offered the leadership of the State Geocadastre a UAH 1.5 million bribe for "resolving" a court dispute.

·       The attacker asked officials to agree to poor-quality computer equipment that he provided to them. Thus, the businessman wanted to illegally receive UAH 38 million, which were provided for in the tender.

15:54: Within the framework of the "OKO za OKO" initiative, UAH 260 million has already been accumulated for 20 SHARK reconnaissance complexes for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

·       The goal of the OKKO and Come Back Alive project is to purchase 25 reconnaissance complexes with a total value of UAH 325 million. This amount will include the purchase of 25 cars with a control point for complexes, 75 unmanned aerial vehicles and 25 launchers.

15:30: The "black box" from the helicopter that crashed in Brovary with the leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs on board was deciphered in France, the data has already been handed over to the investigation, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

·       All materials from the "black box" have been preserved, there are "very high-quality" results of assessing the technical condition of the helicopter, he added.

15:17: The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the downing of the plane over Yenakiyevo.

·       "The Su-34 fighter-bomber was destroyed. It happened at about 1:30," the statement said.

15:11: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, together with Latvian President Egils Levits, signed a joint declaration certifying Latvia's support for Ukraine's full European and Euro-Atlantic integration.

·       "Only with Ukraine in its composition, the European project will become truly perfect. Only with Ukraine in its composition, NATO will become a truly strong defender of the peoples of Europe and all our common values," the President of Ukraine wrote.

14:56 Ukraine or Russia: who is better in the drone war?

·       Maria Berlinska, head of the NGO "Aerial Intelligence Support Center", told who and why she is winning the "drone war" today and what to do about it

·       Professional review from expert Maria Berlinska 👉full video :

13:06: Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed ex-head of Ukrzaliznytsia Oleksandr Kamyshin as his freelance adviser.

12:45: Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the wounded servicemen in the hospital and presented them with awards.

12:38: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, together with Latvian President Egils Levits, honored the memory of fallen Ukrainian soldiers in Lviv.

·       "We honored the memory of our fallen heroes together with Olena Zelenska, President of Latvia Egils Levits and First Lady Andra Levite.

·       We will never forget the defenders who gave their lives for our freedom and independence," Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Mordor - russia

March 5

11:26: The Russian economy will not be able to ensure the conduct of an aggressive war in Ukraine in three months, - The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.

·       "Russia has spent a huge amount of human resources, weapons and materials. Its economy and production are unable to cover these losses. She changed her military chain of command. If the Russian military does not achieve its goals this spring, Russia will run out of its instruments of war," Kirill Budanov said.

11:09 British intelligence: Due to lack of ammunition, the Russian command sends mobilized to storm with sapper shovels.

·       The intelligence believes that the lethality of the MPL-50 shantz weapons among the Russian troops is highly mythologized, and their constant use as a weapon emphasizes the brutal and low-tech hostilities of the Russians, which began to characterize most of the war.

08:49 Institute for the Study of War: The Russians have achieved some tactical success in some areas in the Bakhmut area, but they are unlikely to be able to surround the city in the near future.

·       Experts believe that the advance of the Russians as a result may lead to the retreat of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the city, but it will be a controlled retreat, and a decision on this has not yet been made. Ukrainian defenders control the defensive lines in parts of Bakhmut's districts and will not allow themselves to be surrounded in the coming weeks.

00:30 Defense Express: Russia hit Ukraine for the first time with new bombs planning to weigh 1500-kg

·       The UPAB-1500V is a dangerous weapon. The bomb is equipped with an inertial and satellite navigation system and has a warhead weighing 1010 kg. It is controlled, designed to hit highly protected objects at up to 40 km, for which the carrier must rise to a height of 14 km.

00:02: According to RosSMI, today in the village of Hvardiiske, near Simferopol, air defense forces shot down Ukrainian drone.

March 4

16:41 Bloomberg: Russia, bypassing sanctions, receives key technologies for the war in Ukraine through third countries.

·       According to the publication, modern chips and integrated circuits produced in the EU and other allied countries are supplied to the Russian Federation through Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Kazakhstan.

16:14 Social Networks: In the Simferopol district of the temporarily occupied Crimea, the sounds of explosions are heard.

12:46: Russia has lost more than 200,000 people, killed and wounded 1800 officers, said NATO Europe commander Christopher Cavoli, stressing that "the scale of this war is incredible."

·       He also said that Russia has already lost more than 2000 tanks and, on average, the Russian army produces more than 23,000 artillery shells a day.

11:59: In Belarus, training has been extended until at least March 13, — monitoring group "Belaruski Gayun"

·       Training in the Republic of Belarus continues continuously from April 29, 2022. Despite this, the monitoring group notes that the Belarusian military is not ready for an offensive and open intervention in the war.

March 3

23:12: Russians dug hundreds of kilometers of trenches along the beaches in Crimea

·       "Trenches about 200 km long were dug by the invaders along the Crimean beaches," wrote Vladislav Nazarov, the speaker of ok "South".

·       At the same time, he added that in the video you can see the trenches of Russians in Evpatoria.

22:44 Bloomberg: Russian oil and gas revenues in February fell by almost half compared to last year.

·       According to the publication, basic oil and gas revenues in Russia this year were projected at the level of 8 trillion rubles, but due to losses they will be no higher than 6 trillion rubles.

·       To compensate for these losses, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation sells yuan and gold from the National Welfare Fund.

15:45 British intelligence: Russia lost 5 thousand armored vehicles in the war with Ukraine.

·       "This is probably due to the inability of Russian industry to produce high-tech systems on a large scale - a problem exacerbated by the action of international sanctions," the British Ministry of Defense said.

14:06: The events in the Bryansk region, Russia are evidence that, probably, the people of Russia are beginning to wake up against Putin's bloody dictatorship, said Andrei Yusov, a spokesman for the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.

·       Yusov also noted that for more than a year of war, none of the declared goals of the so-called "svo" has been fulfilled.

·       Transnistria is a rashist enclave that Putin can use for various kinds of provocations and to destabilize the security situation in the region, Yusov said.

13:52: Belarusian partisans from BYPOL handed over to the SBU a unique video from the same drone that blew up a Russian DRLO A-50 aircraft at the Machulyschi airfield.

·       According to sources, all the performers of this special operation were able to leave Belarus, taking with them flash drives with records.

13:21: In Krasnodar, Russia, a fire on the territory of a flight school, according to local media.

·       Residents claim to have heard explosions. The press service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations said that "there was a fire in the field." We are waiting for official information.

KHARKIV

March 5

10:05 Kharkiv RMA: Yesterday, a 65-year-old man was killed by a shell hitting a residential building.

·       At least 5 residential buildings, utility buildings, educational buildings and a maternity hospital were destroyed.

·       This morning, the Russians again shelled Kupyansk. Damaged transport infrastructure.

March 4

12:16 Kharkiv RMA: Last day, the border settlements of Kharkiv, Kupyansk and Chuhuiv districts of the region again suffered from shelling by Russians.

·       In the village of Berestovo, a 52-year-old civilian man hospitalized in a state of moderate severity was injured in the shelling.

·       This morning, a 37-year-old civilian man was killed in the village of Chaykivka. He blew up on the stretch.

10:57: SBU detains two more collaborators assisting Russians in Kharkiv and Donetsk regions

·       One of the detainees is a resident of the Izyum district, who participated in the construction of Russian checkpoints, repaired armored vehicles and helped "quarter" Russians in the homes of local residents who left for other regions of Ukraine.

·       The second is a resident of Lyman, who offered local residents to receive benefits in Russian rubles, compiled lists of beneficiaries and formed an appropriate base for Russians.

LUHANSK

March 4

21:36 Luhansk RMA: Near Kreminna, the Russian army is trying to push Ukrainian defenders, but there are no breakthroughs along the front line.

13:42: The SBU reported suspicion to 27 "deputies of the people's council of the LPR" who organized a pseudo-referendum in Luhansk region, the SBU reported.

·       In September last year, they voted for the so-called "law on the referendum on joining Russia as a subject of the Russian Federation."

·       After that, "officials" publicly called on local residents to participate in a fake plebiscite.

DONETSK

March 5

11:57 Donetsk RMA: In the morning, the Russians used S-300 anti-aircraft missile in a surface-to-surface mode, on the Grishiny Pokrovsky TG — damaged 7 houses. Another 6 houses were damaged in Myrnohrad territorial community,

·       At night, Avdiivka suffered 2 massive shelling, and the next morning — shelling from Grad rockets. In Kurakhove, 1 person was wounded, 9 houses were damaged; another 3 houses and a school were damaged in Kurakhivka. A man was wounded in Lastochkin.

00:16: There is no mass withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Bakhmut, - representative of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiy Cherevyi

·       "The fighting in Bakhmut is more on the outskirts, and the city itself is controlled by the Ukrainian Defense Forces: the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Border Guard Service and the National Guard," he said.

March 4

15:28: The Armed Forces of Ukraine used drones to track down and destroy 25 Russian attack aircraft in the Bakhmut direction, the State Border Guard Service said.

2:41: Bakhmut remains a priority target for the enemy. But the experience of the Armed Forces of Ukraine allows us to rebuild the defense and continue to resist, said Serhiy Cherevatyi, spokesman for the Eastern Group of Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

·       According to him, the situation around Bakhmut is currently difficult, but under control.

·       "For the enemy, this city is a priority target, but our command and personnel are doing everything to defend this settlement and at the same time inflict maximum losses on the enemy," Cherevaty said.

12:31 British intelligence: Ukraine strengthens the Bakhmut area, where fierce fighting continues, with elite units.

·       In the past 36 hours, two key bridges in Bakhmut have been destroyed, including a vital bridge connecting the city with the last major supply route from Bakhmut to the city of Chasiv Yar.

·       Regular Russian army and Wagner Group forces have advanced further into the northern outskirts of the city, which is now a Ukraine-held frontier vulnerable to Russian attacks from three sides.

10:41 Donetsk RMA: published the aftermath of yesterday's and today's Russian shelling of the Donetsk region.

·       Kamyshivka, Avdiivka, Kurakhove, Kurakhivka, Chasiv Yar, Seversk and other settlements came under attack.

·       2 people were injured, residential buildings, industrial facilities, medical facility were damaged.

10:29 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Sloviansk, Donetsk region.

10:11: Commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Viktor Khorenko checked the work of subordinate units defending Bakhmut and involved in combat work in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

·       "All units of the USN of Ukraine involved in the defense of Bakhmut clearly fulfill the tasks. Our soldiers continuously work in extremely difficult conditions and do everything to reduce the number of enemy forces every day," Viktor Khorenko said.

09:38 Donetsk RMA: On March 3, it became known about 2 more residents of the Donetsk region killed by the Russians: in Maksimilyanovka and Seversk.

08:50 Institute for the Study of War: Ukrainian forces are apparently preparing for a controlled withdrawal of troops from some areas of Bakhmut.

·       Footage released on March 3 confirms that Ukrainian troops destroyed two important bridges in the Bakhmut area – one across the Bakhmutivka River in the northeastern part of the city and one on its way to the village of Khromove, west of Bakhmut.

ZAPORIZHIA

March 5

08:34 State Emergency Services: The death toll from the shelling of Zaporizhzhia has risen to 13 people, including an 8-month-old child.

·       SES officers rescued 11 people. During the analysis of the destroyed structures of the house, rescuers pulled four cats and a dog out from under the rubble.

March 4

22:18 Social Networks: An explosion is heard in Zaporizhia.

17:35: Today, at 4:30, during the analysis of rubble in a residential building in Zaporizhia, the body of the deceased woman was seized, according to the State Emergency Service.

·       "A total of 11 dead people have been unlocked, including an 8-month-old child.

·       Utilities have removed more than 511 tons of construction debris," the statement said.

14:27 President's Office: Russians struck the village of Maryivka in the Zaporizhia district, damaged houses.

13:33: Lights have disappeared in some areas of Zaporizhzhia, according to local media.

13:19 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Zaporizhia.

07:12 State Emergency Services: In Zaporizhia, 10 dead were blocked from under the rubble. Of these, one child - SES

·       As of 07:00 on March 4, rescuers had unlocked the bodies of three more dead residents of the house.

·       SES officers rescued 11 people. During the dismantling of the rubble, three cats and a dog were rescued. The elimination of the consequences of the Russian missile strike continues.

00:25: As of the evening, the death toll due to a blow to a house in Zaporizhia on the night of March 3 has risen to seven people, the regional State Emergency Service said. The rubble continues to be dismantled on the spot.

March 3

20:02 State Emergency Service: As of 5: 00 on March 3, rescuers had unlocked the bodies of 5 dead after a Russian strike on a residential building in Zaporizhia.

·       "The elimination of the consequences of the missile strike continues. The forces of the SES units managed to save 11 people, another 20 - to evacuate," the message says.

DNIPRO

March 5

11:25 Social Networks: An explosion is heard in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

March 4

22:55 Dnipro RMA: today the Russians shelled the Nikopol district.

·       There were damaged 11 private houses and one high-rise building, a gas station, 3 outbuildings, power lines and a gas pipeline.

·       A hotel in Nikopol was mutilated. Two people from the Chervonohryhorivska community were killed.

15:58 Dnipro RMA: Russians shelled the Nikopol region in the Dnipropetrovsk region, killing two people.

·       8 private houses, 2 outbuildings, a power line and a gas pipeline were damaged.

09:21 Dnipro RMA: At night, the Marganets community got under the artillery shooting. In the morning - Nikopol. There is destruction.

·       In Nikopol, a private enterprise, 4 houses, a broken power line were damaged. Two outbuildings were mutilated. One of them took up. People were not injured.

March 3

21:59 Dnipro RMA: Russians fired heavy artillery at the Marganetska and Myrivska communities.

·       "More than 100 shells per day. In the Marganets community, a social institution, 17 private houses, 12 outbuildings, a car, a gas pipeline and a power line were damaged. No casualties," Lysak wrote.

KHERSON

March 5

10:52 Kherson RMA: Russians shelled the territory of Kherson region 78 times.

·       The Russian army attacked residential areas of Kherson 11 times. Shells hit the state-owned enterprise and the homes of Kherson residents. 1 person died, 3 people were injured of varying severity.

10:19 Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kherson.

09:52 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.

March 4

23:55 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.

17:07 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.

11:44 Kherson RMA: Russians shelled the territory of the region 69 times.

·       They shelled Kherson itself four times. Apartment buildings and a utility company were damaged in the city. 1 person died, 10 people were injured of varying severity.

10:42 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.

March 3

23:52 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.

16:08 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.

KYIV

March 4

23:31: Storm warning in Kyiv. The KCSA reported that 94 units of road equipment treat the streets with anti-icing agents.

·       Salvo snowfalls are observed with a significant increase in wind, thunderstorm and reduced visibility

SUMY

March 4

23:45 Sumy RMA: During the day, the Russians shelled 7 territorial communities of the region: Bilopilska, Esmanska, Shalyginska, Novoslobidska, Znob-Novgorodska, Myropilska, Yunakovska. 117 arrivals were recorded - from mortars and artillery.

March 3

14:41 SBU press service: The SBU detained the priest of the UOC (Moscow Patriarchy) church, who was collecting intelligence on the defense of Sumy region for the FSB.

·       The attacker was the abbot of one of the churches of the UOC (MP) in the Shostka district of the Sumy region, who secretly cooperated with the FSB.

·       At the direction of the aggressor, he collected information about the deployment of the Defense Forces in the region. First of all, he tried to identify the locations of command posts and warehouses with artillery weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka

www.ubn.news