Bob Homans March 20

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Bob Homans' notes in bold; sources in normal font

Ukraine – 3/20 Sitrep
 Compiled By: Robert Homans
March 20, 2022

NOTE: Starting today, and thereafter, I am changing “By” to “Compiled by,” to duly acknowledge the contributions of my collaborators, all Ukrainians who are still in Ukraine, without whom I could not produce these sitreps.   This will also be retroactive, to the first day or the war, and shame on me for not doing this earlier.   For obvious reasons, I cannot include their names here.  One of them is a combatant, a volunteer member of a sniper unit.  Their bravery and loyalty to their Country is unsurpassed.  

International Coaching Federation (“ICF”) Update –

As I reported two days ago ICF Global, the umbrella organization representing the interests of professional coaches world-wide, has excluded ICF/Russia from its network of chapters.  This decision is largely the result of interventions organized by ICF/Ukraine, including my wife who is immediate past President of ICF/Ukraine.  As a result of this decision, ICF Global has deleted all references to ICF/Russia from its website, ICF/Russia can no longer use trademarks or materials belonging to ICF Global, and coaching academies in Russia can no longer extend ICF professional certifications to its students.

ICF/Russia had approximately 1,000 members.  Russian members reacted, by making posts threatening to “find a way” to illegally use ICF’s material and trademarks, and asking the question, “Why doesn’t ICF Global acknowledge the pain of Russian families who lose their sons in this war?” I would encourage those individuals to ask another question, “Who sent these boys you are so concderned about to Ukraine?”   For me, these reactions on the part of Russian coaches constitute one small example of the continued denial, on the part of many Russians, of the crimes that their leadership is perpetrating in their names.   There Is no effort, at least on the part of those making these comments, to acknowledge their complicity.

The decision of ICF Global to exclude ICF/Russia is an example of the importance of all professional associations to take similar actions against their chapters and individual members in Russia.

Covering the War –

My wife’s daughter is co-host of a 30-minute Ukrainian Language TV news broadcast produced by BBC in London.   This is her latest, produced last Friday.  It’s worth watching, even if you don’t understand Ukrainian.   This broadcast includes coverage of refugees escaping from Bessarabia, a part of Ukraine stretching from Odesa to the Danube, to Romania, and a theater performance for civilians taking shelter from Russian bombardment.

Yesterday I asked my stepdaughter how she can manage covering the assault on her own Country, especially the attacks on civilian targets and the movement of refugees, and control her emotions as well as she does.  She said that all she can do is to try to distance herself emotionally from what she is covering.

I cannot think of any anchorperson or host of a TV news broadcast, being required to do what my stepdaughter is doing, namely covering an assault on one’s own country.  When this is over, schools of journalism should be lining up to have her speak to their students.

March 20 Sitrep –

As usual, any comments I make in this Section are in bold face.   All commentary in other sections are mine.

Russia lost the first round of the information war to Biden.  The second round to Zelensky.  Biden and Zelensky won opinion prizes, and Putin won negative opinion.  Opinion influences how we perceive information, and therefore our belief of what is truth. 

The war for truth in Ukraine is being played out in the trenches of journalistic reporting, and not on the field of press conferences.  The winner of this round takes all in the information war.

Russia went into the third round with overwhelming advantages over Ukraine.  If this sounds like a repeat of the perception that Russian armed forces are superior, bear with me. 

Russia domiciled tens of thousands of expats representing leading western corporations who informed western public and corporate discourse daily for the last twenty years.  These people made money, and their employers made money.  Therefore, Russia was a good place.  Ukraine domiciled maybe a couple of thousand corporate expats who had to work hard to make money and were happy to break even.  According to well-respected commentators, business in Russia is good, and in Ukraine so so and held back by corruption and shaky institutions like the judiciary, or so the narrative went.  Russia was a safe place to do business; Ukraine not so much

In addition to multinationals corporations using Moscow as their Eastern Europe headquarters, the Eastern Europe operations of international development banks, including the World Bank Group (WBG) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) were also headquartered in Moscow.  Eastern European and Central Asian countries including Ukraine, were like planets revolving around Moscow’s Sun.  To continue with the cosmological analogy, with respect to the business world and international development banks, the events of February 24, 2022, were analogous to the “Big Bang.”

After taking office Putin directed the Federal Security Bureau (FSB), successor to the KGB, to conduct active propaganda campaigns to influence western opinions, and therefore global opinion.  Over the last twenty-two years Russia’s government bought western political parties, established global media networks, funded think tanks, created lobbying networks, hired Western professional service firms including law, accounting and public relations firms, international consultants, operated internet bot farms, and provided reports to journalists.  The Russian government owned Ukrainian political parties, media networks, and the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate in Ukraine.  Russian money paid for a significant fifth column ensconced in various Ukrainian government agencies, including the military.  The Russian corporate elite duplicated state efforts. 

From independence to the start of the war the Ukrainian government, with a brief exception from 2014 to 2016, spent over 90% of its media resources bashing its domestic opposition.  Media networks were controlled by Ukraine’s business elites who continuously bashed each other with no interest to reach out abroad.  Independent media, particularly internet media, was alive, and actively exposed government and corporate abuse.  Ukrainian lobbying abroad was to win favors for members of its corporate elite.

The nadir of Ukraine’s external communications was its failure in 2014 to explain that the Donbas breakaway regions were a creation of Russia’s Ukrainian fifth column supported by a covert invasion of Russian military forces.  The Western media narrative, reporting from Moscow and not Ukraine, was that the breakaway regions in the Donbas were ordinary ethnic Russians fighting for cultural survival against right wing ethnic Ukrainian state aggression.  Western media narrative mimicked Russian state communication.  To this day many western media continue to portray occupied Donbas as result of an internal Ukrainian civil war.

During this period, much as they tried, Ukraine was never able to fully debunk the narrative that the 2013/14 Revolution of Dignity was a Fascist coup financed by the United States.  Many Western media outlets simply repeated this narrative even though as is the case today, much of Ukraine’s leadership during this period was Jewish or part-Jewish, and the only financing from the United States likely consisted of the cookies passed out to protestors by the former Assistant Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland.

The apogee of Russian state communication was its successful intervention in the 2016 American presidential election.  Having successfully manipulated western opinion on a couple of occasions gave the Russian state a sense of hubris.  It could do as it wanted without western opposition because it controlled Western opinion, and therefore the truth.

Russia’s communication colossus was a perfect match for the perfectly gigantic Russian military.  Western commentators, so-called experts on the capabilities of Russia’s military, told of Russia’s improved command and control, tactical communication, equipment, and Russia’s improved ability to coordinate assaults between ground and air.  They predicted that Ukraine’s military would be overwhelmed. Western media duly repeated the finding of the so-called experts.

Russia’s communication machine began losing traction after the 2016 US election as its role in manipulating American opinion was exposed.  America and other western governments began reigning in the power of social media.  Russian hubris prevented it from recognizing that the Western narrative was slipping from its control.  Brexit reinforced Russia’s superiority complex.

Russia came to believe in its own superiority.  The only fly in the ointment was the dissonance coming from independent Russian media and opposition groups.  In preparation for the second invasion of Ukraine, and in the belief that it would be a three-day campaign, Russia jailed its citizens for saying and acting the way they believed.  Only approved words and actions would be allowed henceforth.  Further there was no longer a need to keep Western Media in Russia as the story on Ukraine would come from Moscow regardless. 

Russia’s military and communication victories had come where there was no opposition.  They were taken aback when Biden began shedding light on their plan.  But they still believed that they could control the narrative which is why they stripped Russian soldiers invading Ukraine of their mobile phones.  Their second shock came when Zelensky didn’t cower, and instead called them out.  The third shock came when ordinary Ukrainians, in addition to tactically outfighting Russian soldiers, showered the world with horrific scenes of Russian destruction and comic scenes of Russian incompetence. 

Information on the second Russian invasion of Ukraine is being sourced from the mobile phones of ordinary Ukrainians.  Opinion, and what people belief is truth, is starting to look Ukrainian and not like Moscow propaganda.  Partly based on this new truth, and partly to prevent Moscow propaganda from interfering in western elections again, Western governments are implementing Russia’s playbook.  They are closing Russia’s western media networks, ensuring that international expats have no reason to stay in Russia, casting greater scrutiny on party financing. 

The only communication tool governments cannot touch is stereotypes.  Truth can chip away at them until they crumble and disappear.

General - Ukraine’s ombudsman accused Russia of sending forced conscripts from the Donbas to lead attacks on Ukrainian forces and thereby providing cover for better trained Russian armed forces.  She said these untrained conscripts are being turned in to hamburger and they are being used to uncover Ukrainian defensive positions.

Ukrainian and Polish demonstrators are blocking the border crossing between Poland and Belarus for the third day in a row.  The backlog of Russian and Belarussian semi-trailers bringing products from EU countries to Russia is reported today to be 43 kilometers long.  Polish authorities are not dispersing the demonstrators.

Ukrainian intelligence reports that the Russian elite is planning to dispose of Putin.  The plans the Ukrainians uncovered indicate that the head of Russian intelligence, Olexander Bortnikov is the planned replacement.  Putin’s death is to be made to look accidental.

The National Bank of Ukraine has deprived the majority owners of Alfa Bank Ukraine, Messrs. Friedman and Avena, of their controlling rights, while leaving them with ownership.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reports that its special forces in coordination with the Georgian Foreign Legion operating in Ukraine mined a section of road and blew up an entire Russian column.  The Ministry did not disclose the location where this occurred.  All equipment and personnel were liquidated.

President Zelensky enacted a decision of the National Security Council banning the Opposition Party for Life, and three other Russian government sponsored parties.  Viktor Medvedchuk, the Leader of the Opposition Party for Life, escaped home confinement and he is now at large.  Ukraine’s parliament will meet tomorrow to decide what to do with members from these parties that were elected to the Ukrainian parliament.  We note that 20 of the 22 members of these parties are no longer in Ukraine, and that most of those missing are now in Russia.

Russia’s military command has opened an investigation and plans to lay charges against the commanders of one Tactical Battle Group that refused to continue assaulting the city of Kharkiv, after losing more than half of its soldiers and equipment.  The Russians have also opened a criminal investigation into a psychological platoon which failed to establish a Kherson People’s republic and retreated to Crimea.

Russian media personalities on 1st Russian channel are resigning in protest of the war.

Ukraine’s ministry for digitization claims that there have been more than 3,000 cyber-attacks on Ukrainian government and private servers since February 15.

Russia claims that the rocket which hit Ivano Frankivsk a few days ago was one its hyper sonic rockets. 

Skirmishes continued in communities of Makarov, Bycha, Hostomel, and Vorzel in Kyiv Oblast.  Invaders were falling back and regrouping in Brovary and Vyzhorod counties and started digging defensive trenches and erecting fortifications.  Attack troops have pulled back to support columns delivering supplies, munitions, and fuel.  The village of Demivka in the Oblast faces possible destruction because a berm holding back Dnipro river water has been damaged by Russian army vehicles.

Kyiv was hit by a one bomb today and one yesterday falling in Sviatoshyno district.  Ukrainian army and territorial defense ambushed and destroyed a platoon of Russian paratroopers last night.

The Chechen battle group has retreated from Ukraine and is back in Chechnya.  Estimates are that 70% of the force were liquidated in skirmishes in Kyiv and Zhytomir Oblasts.

Most of Chernihiv has no water, electricity or gas and shells hit an apartment building and an industrial zone.  Last night an operating hospital was hit by artillery fire was hit and patients recovering from operations and other procedures were moved from their rooms into the corridors for their safety.  The air temperature inside the hospital is 10 Celsius.

Sumy city continues to be hit by sporadic artillery fire.  The head of Sumy oblast warned turncoats currently helping Russian forces to target objectives that they all face treason charges and will be caught sooner or later.

Aerial bombardment of Kharkiv is decreasing.  Yesterday two bombs were dropped on the city and an apartment building was set on fire.  There was no artillery shelling.  Ukrainian forces in coordination with the territorial defense force counter attacked two columns outside the city destroying several tanks.

Russian forces arrested 20 Ukrainian activists in Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast, who were listed by the FSB prior to the start of the invasion for liquidation or exile to Siberia. 

Shelling of Mariinka, Toretsk and Avdiivka continued.  Invaders tried to breach defenses of these cities but were thrown back.

A column of buses to evacuate civilians is blockaded in Mariupol since yesterday.  Nonstop firing is preventing them from leaving.

A second bomb shelter in Mariupol was hit by an aerial bomb yesterday trapping civilians in the rubble.  The search for survivors continues at Mariupol’s theatre hit on Thursday night, and the school hit yesterday.

Civilians that escaped Mariupol and are waiting in villages on its outskirts for evacuation are facing the prospect of starvation.

There is an unconfirmed report that Russia has deported approximately 1,000 women and children from Mariupol to Siberia.

Rybizhno and Popasno in Luhansk Oblast were under heavy fire yesterday.  Last night Ukrainian forces eliminated two groups of Russians that managed to infiltrate Rybizhno.  12,500 civilians were evacuated from the front lines in Luhansk Oblast yesterday.

A Russian rocket hit a military barrack in Mykolaiv.  50 dead soldiers have been recovered so far from the rubble.  Military authorities fear they find many more bodies.

Over the last twenty four hours Mykolaiv has been repeatedly hit by rocket attacks.

Russian forces blocked a column carrying food and medicine from travelling to Kherson.  Yesterday was third day in a row the column carrying was not allowed to pass through Russian lines.  The mayor of Kherson issued a plea to allow the column to enter the city.

Explosions were heard throughout Kherson Oblast last night.  The humanitarian situation is rapidly deteriorating due to dwindling supplies of food and medicine.  The situation is critical in locations where there are Russian soldiers as they looting indiscriminately.  Russian soldiers have started to force drivers to hand their vehicles over to them or be shot.

Russia’s marines that had been based in Crimea are back at their bases.  More than a third of the platoons that took part in the invasion of Kherson will not be able to return to the invasion as they have lost between 60 and 90 percent of their personnel.  Russia’s marine command opened 22 criminal cases against marines who signed statements that they refuse to go back to Ukraine and fight.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense issued a statement today that it believes the Belarussian army may attack Volyn Oblast in the next few days.

A grain store in Korosten, Zhytomir Oblast, was hit and set on fire last night.  The blaze was extinguished and fortunately the store was empty at the time of the attack.