Bob Homans March 17

20220317

Bob Homans' additions are in bold.  His source is in light type.

Ukraine – 3/17 Sitrep
By Robert Homans
March 17, 2022

Correction – Yesterday I stated that the amount of the additional security assistance from the United States, announced yesterday by President Biden after Pres. Zelenskyy’s speech to a Joint Session of Congress, was $800 billion.   It is $800 million.  Hope springs eternal.

Churchill –

“What kind of a People do they think we are?”  After Pres. Zelenskyy’s speech yesterday to a Joint Session of the U.S. Congress, there have been several video clips played on American news outlets, of P.M. Winston Churchill’s speech to the U.S. Congress on Dec. 26, 1941.   This one is my personal favorite, because it speaks directly to Ukrainians and, through Churchill’s use of the word “them,” also refers to the Russian People.  I used this video in an email I recently sent, where I described several brave Ukrainians, all friends of mine, who risked their lives during Euromaidan to throw out a treasonous President.  Since then, I’ve added several new recipients, so it’s worth including here.   The clip ends with a remark, “if we had done more…..,” which is as relevant today as it was when Churchill spoke these words over 80 years ago. 

Putin’s Victory Remarks –

Last February 26th, there was published in Russian news outlets victory remarks to celebrate Russia’s victory in Ukraine.   The full text is attached, in both the original Russian and in English.   My thanks to one of the recipients for translating and sending to me.   Because of the disjointed grammar he believes that Putin wrote this.   After February 26th came and went, without a Russian victory, the article was deleted from all Russian media outlets. 

Asset Seizures & Reparations –

Yesterday, a yacht belonging to the fugitive Viktor Medvedchuk was seized by Croatian authorities.  Medvedchuk is the Leader of the pro-Russian opposition Party in the Ukrainian Parliament called “Opposition Party – For Life.”   Apparently, the value of the yacht is at least $150 million.   A second yacht, belonging to a sanctioned Russian oligarch is stranded in Norway.   The reason – due to sanctions, suppliers of fuel and other consumables refuse to service the yacht.

Yesterday, in a webinar with Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Makarova, and Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Indiana), the question of whether reserves belonging to the Russian Central Bank, reserves now frozen in in foreign banks, can be used as an offset against any demand for reparations from Russia that Ukraine is expected to make.   The amount of frozen reserves is more than $300 billion.   Both Ambassador Makarova and Rep. Spartz are well-placed to offer their expertise.  Before she became Ambassador, Makarova was Finance Minister of Ukraine.  Rep. Spartz sits on the House Judiciary Committee which, among other things, has money laundering under its purview.

3/17 Sitrep

As usual, any remarks I add appear in Bold Face.

This morning at 9:00 am a moment of silence was observed.  From this day forward Ukraine will have a moment of silence in memory of those killed in this war at 9:00 am.

As expected, Ukraine and Russia are seeking to enter into a peace agreement which in essence is a fig leave for Russian capitulation.  The agreement published yesterday int the Financial Times is the Russian proposal and does not represent Ukraine’s proposals.

One of Russia’s proposals is for Ukraine’s neutrality and a reduced size of its armed forces.   Anyone who thinks Ukraine should agree to reducing its armed forces doesn’t remember history, specifically Russia’s breaking of its agreement to assure Ukraine’s territorial integrity, contained in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum where Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear arsenal inherited from the Soviet Union, the 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea, the Spring 2014 occupation of a large portion of Donbas (reduced in size by Ukraine’s counterattack during the Summer), and today.  

If any Ukrainian president ever agreed to limit the size of its armed forces, he or she would almost certainly be removed forthwith.  The Ukrainian people have found their voice.   Instead, Ukraine should follow the lead of Israel, by arming itself to the teeth and, like Israel, the West should provide all necessary assistance.   I am sure Russia knows this, thus the demand that Ukraine reduce the size of its armed forces.

Putin issued another version of why he started this war yesterday.  His latest version is that he did this to ensure that Russia remains Russia.  He’s down to tautologies.  Gone are his explanations of they made me do it.  Latvia’s Minister of Foreign affairs recommended that Putin’s war crime trial be held in either Kharkiv or Mariupol. 

Yesterday the International court in the Hague ordered to halt the war.  The prosecutor for the International Criminal Court has sent an official letter to the Russian government requesting an explanation for the invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine’s government continues to implement fundamental changes to Ukraine’s institutional structure.  We mentioned changes to government procurement which occurred earlier, and yesterday a more fundamental change was introduced but not yet adopted or implemented.

Domestic Concerns - Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers proposed abolishing the Value Added Tax (VAT) and replacing it with a 2% tax on turnover.  If this change occurs, it will have a fundamental impact on business climate and corruption.   The advantage of a VAT, and why it has become very popular, is that it is very difficult to manipulate.   Not so with a flat tax on reported turnover.

Ukraine’s VAT currently accounts for 40% of budgetary revenues and is a major source of government corruption.  This proposal will not receive due scrutiny during the war.  Our opinion is that fundamental institutional change is needed but after the war when there is time to debate and consider impacts.  Excluding society from participation in making fundamental changes is not appropriate.

Ukraine simplified customs procedures for the import of gasoline and diesel from the EU. 

Healthcare - Yesterday Ukraine’s Minister of Health, Victor Liashko said that in 20 days 117 hospitals had been hit by enemy fire, 7 cannot be restored, 43 ambulances have been hit by rifle and artillery fire, 103 volunteer doctors from abroad are working in Ukraine, and 109 sick children have been evacuated to Poland for further treatment.   One of the major hospitals in Mariupol has been captured by the Russians, and its staff taken hostage.  The Russians are now using the hospital for firing positions.

Agriculture – There have been reports of Russian troops blowing up grain elevators, destroying combine harvesters and other agricultural equipment necessary for both sowing and harvesting, and engaging in an entirely different type of sowing – sowing landmines in fields, thus preventing their use.   Ukrainians now refer to Russian troops as the “horde,” an extremely derogatory term in the Russian language, and for good reason.

Russian Losses - The Pentagon issued a press release that raised its estimate from of Russians liquidated in Ukraine from 4 – 6 thousand, to more than 7,000.  When wounded and captured invaders are included the Pentagon estimates that more than 15% of the invasion force is no longer operationally capable and another ten percent require reequipping and additional manpower.  Ukrainian army estimates are more than twice as high as Pentagon estimates.

Additional Air Defense - The US and Britain plan to immediately provide Ukraine with more advanced anti-aircraft systems.  Their arrival would end all speculation of whether Russia could achieve air superiority.   

There are also ongoing discussions with Slovakia, to supply Ukraine with the S-300 antiaircraft system.   S-300s are already in Ukraine’s inventory, so they can be immediately deployed.   The S-300s will go a long way to counter Russia’s high-flying bombers, and the cruise missiles that Russia is using to assault Ukrainian cities.  

The U.S. has announced that it intends to place Patriot missile batteries along Poland’s border with Ukraine.   Patriots have a dual use.   In addition to shooting down aircraft, the Patriots’ radar systems have an effective range of 500 miles, that would include all of Ukraine.   The Patriots can provide Ukraine with early-warning radar information on flights of Russian aircraft.  However, there is a risk that a Russian plane being “painted” by Patriot radar, may shoot back thinking that they are about to be fired upon.

Ukrainians Returning to Fight - Ukrainian customs reports that more than 310,000 men have returned to Ukraine to fight.   If this information is correct, and the 310,000 new arrivals are deployed into the field, that would more than double the original size of Ukraine’s ground forces.   It is likely that these men will join the territorial defense forces, where they get 2 weeks of training by active-duty soldiers.   Judging from the performance of Russian  soldiers, the  training is likely of better quality than the training received by Russian soldiers over a far longer period.

The Ukrainian Association of Scrap Metal Dealers is gearing up to process destroyed and abandoned Russian Military equipment.   Russian armor captured intact is  incorporated into  Ukraine’s armed forces.

Kyiv was hit by sporadic artillery, rocket and cruise missile fire.  The enemy is facing active engagement in Irpin, Bucha, and in Barishivka, and Brovary counties outside of Kyiv.  Over the last twenty-four hours they have lost a few kilometers in Brovary county and not been able to advance in any direction. Ukraine’s army destroyed the Command Center for Eastern Russian Region, and 35th Russian army in Ukraine near Kyiv. Gary in London sent this link

The city of Chernihiv was under sporadic shelling.  There were no attempts yesterday to take the city and the enemy has retreated from its outskirts.  The mayor reported that 52 civilians were killed yesterday by enemy fire.  This includes ten people in a queue waiting to enter a store to buy bread.  Ukrainian artillery fire destroyed a Russian Fuel and Munitions base north of Chernihiv.

The city of Kharkiv came under sporadic shelling yesterday.  Active battles are continuing in Izum and Chuhuyev.  Medical workers collecting dead civilians and military personnel reported two instances yesterday of corpses that were mined.  Sappers were called in to remove the mines.  Velyka Danilivka Khakiv Oblast was hit by artillery fire. Gary in London sent this link of a destroyed column.

The city of Sumy was under sporadic shelling yesterday.  There were no attempts yesterday to take the city.  The enemy has retreated beyond the range of roaming Ukrainian defenders.   There have been recent reports from the Sumy Region of Russian soldiers commandeering private residences, and stealing food, vehicles, etc.   Another example of “the horde.”

Rybizhno, Popasno, and Severodonestk in Luhansk oblast were shelled all last night.  27 buildings were destroyed in Rybizhno.

Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, started yesterday with sporadic shelling which increased to continuous shelling last night and this morning is under constant ballistic rocket attacks.  Mariinka has been subject to sporadic shelling for the last 24 hours.

The mayor of Mariupol said that 80 to 90 percent of the cities civilian infrastructure has been damaged.  He said that the city is surrounded by 14,000 elite Russian forces whose goal is to level the city with the ground to gain its surrender. 

The Russians hit Mariupol’s theatre yesterday with an aerial bomb destroying the building.  The building was marked as a childrens bomb shelter.  There were no casualties but the evacuation from the shelter is still not complete.

Russian occupational authorities n Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast have cancelled all Ukrainian language instruction in schools under their control.

Melitopol’s mayor was released from Russian custody and he vows to return and restore a Ukrainian administration.  He was released in exchange for POWs.   Perhaps the POWs are safer staying in Ukrainian  custody, especially after Defense Minister Shoigu announced that all Russian POWs would be given dishonorable discharges.

Kherson Oblast which is fully occupied by Russian forces remains under active counterattack.  Fighting is reported from all locations in the Oblast.  The invaders are not allowing aid into the Oblast, food is becoming scarce and power and gas outages are widespread.  Municipal authorities remain independent and citizens in all communities, regardless of size continue to demonstrate against the invaders.  In Skadovsk six demonstrators were wounded and one killed at a peaceful demonstration.

Russian colonists who were brought in to occupy Crimea after Russian annexation in 2014 are reportedly leaving en masse.  In the last week more than 5,000 apartments and houses were put for sale and civilian convoys are crossing the bridge over the Straight of Kerch to Russia.  Rouble devaluation has cut the value of this housing in half.  A prolonged lack of buyers and continued growth in supply will lower values further.  Crimea’s return to Ukraine may meet some of the demand to replace housing destroyed by indiscriminate Russian destruction of civilian infrastructure.

Fighting in Mykolaiv Oblast has moved away from the city outskirts to center of the Oblast.  Ukrainian forces continue to push invaders back to Kherson.

This is an excellent article from the Wall St. Journal describing a Russian defeat at the town of Voznesansk, in Mykolaiv Oblast.   Loss of this town, and a strategic bridge across the Southern Bug River, would have opened access to the South Nuclear Power Plant, attacking Odesa from the rear, and possibly cutting off all Ukrainian forces operating in Southern Ukraine from the rest of the Country.   Ukrainians defeated the Russians using only rifles, RPG’s and Javelin Missiles, and without the benefit of tanks and APCs.   One Russian  soldier was captured by an old lady.  She had to call the City Office for assistance.

I will be happy to send to anyone who cannot open the article due to a paywall.

Russians hit three commercial vessels registered in Panama yesterday in the Black Sea.

Russian soldiers abandoned their equipment and munitions in a confrontation with Ukrainian forces in the forest on the border of Zhytomir and Kyiv Oblast.  Equipment included an armored personnel carrier, a howitzer, and a truck full of munitions.  The equipment is fully operable. 

The city of Berdichiv 50 km south of Zhytomir was hit three times by rockets destroying one apartment building and damaging two others.

Sarny, 90 km north of the city of Rivno was hit by a rocket yesterday.  The rocket missed the military base there and caused no damage to military or civilian infrastructure.  

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/