Bob Homans January 31

20230201

Ukraine – 1/31 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
January 31, 2023

George Kennan

Someone sent me this article, from a recent edition of “Foreign Affairs,” entitled “Kennan’s Warning on Ukraine – Ambition, Insecurity and the Perils of Independence.”   I’m probably way over my head here, but I have some observations about this article.

In death, George Kennan, our premier expert on the former Soviet Union and, later, the Russian Federation, seems to have become the “go to” person for people, like the author of this piece, who would like to dilute Ukraine’s status as a free and independent country, if for no other reason to mollify Russia and Putin.   I am not sure Kennan, the author of the famous “Long Telegram,” and our Containment Policy directed at the former Soviet Union, leading directly to our support of struggling governments of Greece and Turkey in the late 1940s, would be entirely comfortable with being placed in this position by others who have their own agendas that may not be entirely consistent with Kennan’s.

The author believes that, for Kennan, like Putin, Russia and Ukraine are inseparable.  He states, “two problems identified by Kennan three-quarters of a century ago have persisted, particularly in the minds of Russian leaders. Kennan doubted that Russians and Ukrainians could be easily distinguished in ethnic terms.  He wrote in a State Department memo that “there is no clear dividing line between Russia and Ukraine, and it would be impossible to establish one.” Second, the Russian and Ukrainian economies were intertwined.”    Both theories are now in the process of being scrutinized.

As to the first, it is true that Russians and Ukrainians are both Slavic peoples, but culturally they are separate and come from different traditions.   At least 2 generations of Slavic scholars appear to agree with the author of this article, that there is “no clear dividing line,” but now this idea is being questioned by a new group of scholars, including Timothy Snyder, Serhii Plokhii, and others.    In his recent course at Yale, “The Making of Modern Ukraine,” Snyder argues that Ukrainians come from the same Western traditions, including the Reformation and the Renaissance, as the countries of Europe.   Snyder goes on to argue that these traditions didn’t touch Russia which, according to Snyder, remained a derivative of Mongolian influence.

As to the second, not even Lenin, Bukharin and Stalin believed that that Russian and Ukrainian economies were intertwined, at least at a basic level.   For all 3, the question always was how to use the wealth generated by independent Ukrainian farmers to grow the proletarian, industrial economy that needed to be established as a conditions for achieving a communist society.   The policy swung between letting independent Ukrainian farmers keep the benefits of their wealth, on one side, keeping property but confiscating wealth, called “pumping over,” in the middle and, on the other end of the spectrum, the confiscation of both property and wealth of Ukrainian farmers, leading to the establishment of collectives and, eventually, the 1932/33 Famine.   However, all 3 agreed that the economies in Ukraine and Russia were different, and they were intertwined only as a means by which the Soviet leaders could use the wealth of Ukraine to achieve Communism throughout the Soviet Union.   Somehow, I wonder if someone as perceptive as Kennan would’ve missed either or both distinctions.   Conveniently, the author doesn’t define what Kennan meant by a “dividing line” between Russia and Ukraine, whether it includes not just ethnic, but also, economic, cultural, and linguistic “dividing lines.”

The author goes on to say, “Since 1991, Ukrainians have struggled to establish a territorial and ethnic dividing line while forging economic independence from the Russian behemoth. Moscow has undermined these efforts by encouraging discontent in the eastern Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine, fomenting independence movements and now officially annexing four breakaway regions.”   The author conveniently doesn’t mention that in December 1991, a referendum was held throughout Ukraine, on whether to join an independent Ukraine or stay with the Soviet Union.   By large majorities, every Ukrainian oblast except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea voted in favor of independence, and in Crimea it was 54% in favor of joining Ukraine and in Sevastopol City, with a majority of the population ethnic Russian, it was 57%.   In Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts it was 83%, in Zaporizhzhia Oblast it was over 86%, and in Kherson Oblast 90%.  These are the 4 oblasts, plus Crimea, that Russia claims to have annexed. Since 1991, and especially since 2014, Ukrainian identity has only solidified, including in the 4 oblasts Russia has “annexed.”   

Based on the facts on the ground, “a federation allowing for regional autonomy in eastern Ukraine and perhaps even in Crimea could help both sides coexist,” as the author claims that Kennan saw as a solution, could not exist today.   It failed in 2014 & 2014, in the form of Minsk I and Minsk II and, since 2014, it offered Russia the opportunity to prepare for invading the remainder of Ukraine.

The author states, “the realities of demography and geography dictate that Russia in the long run will remain the principal power in these often tragic “bloodlands.” For the sake of both regional stability and long-term U.S. security, Washington needs to sustain a hardheaded, clear-eyed empathy for the interests of the Russians as well as of the Ukrainians and other nationalities.”  The “Bloodlands,” as defined by Timothy Snyder in his book “Bloodlands – Europe Between Hitler and Stalin,” includes Poland.  I doubt that Poland would agree that Russia should be the “principal power.”  I wonder if the author is prepared to describe Russia as a colonial power, including under its rule many ethnic groups with the “Great Russians” as a minority.   Somehow, I think Kennan wouldn’t have hesitated to make such a characterization. 

I am sorry that Kennan is no longer with us, so that it would be un-necessary for others to speak on his behalf, and that he could speak for himself.

The Bakhmut Meatgrinder

Both “Reporting From Ukraine” and the Latest Denys describe the deteriorating military and humanitarian situation in Bakhmut.   “Reporting From Ukraine” believes that Ukraine has been preparing for an organized withdrawal for some time.    Rather than relying only on maps, this video account from “France 24” describes the situation inside of Bakhmut.   

One Ukrainian soldier inside Bakhmut describes the Russians attacking Bakhmut as “cockroaches,” that continue to come forward despite efforts to kill them.   F-16s would be nice, but perhaps a better weapon to use against “cockroaches” would be the A-10 “Warthog.”   Pres. Biden announced that the United States wouldn’t be supplying F-16s to Ukraine.   Perhaps the United States could supply the A-10s directly and, as the Lates Denys surmises, the United States could supply F-16s to Europe, to replace F-16s that Europe would supply Ukraine.

Just a thought.

1/31 Sitrep

Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon January 30 to 12:00 noon January 31, 2022

Abbreviations:

RMA = Regional Military AdministrationSBU = Security Service of Ukraine

RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders

INTERNATIONAL

January 31

11:55: Canada proposes to recognize PMC Wagner as a terrorist organization*

·        This was stated by New Democratic Party MP Heather McPherson

·        "Given information about violations of the Russian-backed Wagner group of human rights and attacks on civilians in Ukraine, as well as in other parts of the world, the House of Commons calls on the government to immediately recognize the Wagner group as a terrorist organization," the text of the resolution reads.

11:46: Today, during the visit of Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov to Paris, the possibility of transferring fighter jets to Ukraine is likely to be discussed —.*

·        According to the publication, in addition to a meeting with the Minister of the Armed Forces of France Sebastien Lecornou, the topic of which will be the Mamba SAMP/T air defense system from France and Italy, Alexey Reznikov will also have a meeting with President Emmanuel Macron. Its topic will actually be the supply of F-16 fighters to Ukraine.

10:43: The United States and South Korea have agreed to expand the scope of joint exercises in 2023, according to a statement by the heads of the Ministry of Defense.

10:31: Iran's Foreign Ministry responded to statements by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken regarding the threat of the country's nuclear program.

·        "The U.S. government should take into account the legal and international responsibility of its threats against the Islamic Republic and should think more about the political implications of such provocative statements," Iranian Foreign Minister Nasser Kanaani said in a statement.

09:59 DPA: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine a condition for starting negotiations with Russia.

·        During a press conference with Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, Scholz also stressed that no peace agreements with Russia would be concluded behind the backs of Ukrainians.

09:38 The Washington Post: British former Prime Minister Boris Johnson believes that Putin dared to invade the Ukraine because he knew that it was not going to join NATO, and if the West had the determination to bring Ukrainians to the Alliance, this war would have been avoided.

·        "Ukrainians should be given everything they need to end this war as soon as possible, and start the process of Ukraine's admission to NATO, and start it now," Johnson emphasized.

09:28 France 24: Norwegian Defence Minister Bjorn Arild Gram announces "as soon as possible" the provision of part of the Norwegian Leopard 2 tank fleet to Ukraine.

·        The publication notes that Norway has 36 Leopard 2 tanks.

09:22 The Times of Israel: The Israeli Defense Ministry has handed over to the emergency services of Ukraine three additional bulletproof ambulances Mercedes Sprinter, equipped with armor from the Israeli company Plasan Re'em.

·        The cars are also equipped with a defibrillator, a heart rate monitor and an oxygen supply system.

08:50: The White House explained Biden's statement that the United States would not send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.

·        National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby said that "a lot of assistance is now being provided that will be sent in the coming weeks and months" and that Ukraine needs this spring.

08:29: U.S. Transportation Command sends the first batch of Bradley infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine as part of military assistance from the United States, - Pentagon

08:29: The lower house of the Canadian Parliament unanimously supported a resolution to send a proposal to the government to officially recognize PMC Wagner as a terrorist organization. The corresponding statement was made to the session hall by New Democratic Party MP Heather McPherson.

00:11: The IOC responded to criticism of Ukraine and some other countries for the proposal to allow athletes from Russia under a neutral flag at the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris

·        "The IOC strongly rejects this and other defamatory statements. They cannot be the basis of any constructive discussion."

January 30

11:55: The Netherlands is ready to consider a request for deliveries of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.

·        This was stated by Prime Minister Mark Rutte during a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron in The Hague.

·        Rutte clarified that the Netherlands had not yet received a request from Ukraine for the supply of the F-16.

11:21 : Joe Biden says the U.S. will not supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, — AFP.

23:17 Rolitico: Stoltenberg wants to extend his nato powers

·        The publication, citing a high-ranking diplomat, writes that Stoltenberg wants to stay. In addition, many believe that extending the tenure of the NATO Secretary General is now more optimal than the election of a new person. In particular, Stoltenberg is perceived as a high-ranking official who can maintain composure in crisis situations. His current term expires at the end of September.

22:56: During a meeting with Iceland's Permanent Representative to the Council of Europe, Mrs. Ragnhildur Arnliotsdottir, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets discussed the deportation of Ukrainian children to the temporarily occupied territories and to the territory of Russia under the guise of evacuation or rehabilitation

·        Ms. Ragnhildur promised to work out all the information provided with her team and do everything possible to ensure that everyone knows about the situation with Ukrainian children, in particular, during the Fourth Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Council of Europe, which will be held in Reykjavik on May 16-17, 2023.

22:36 BFM TV: French President Emmanuel Macron has not ruled out supplying fighter jets to Ukraine, stressing that there is nothing prohibited in this.

·        At the same time, he added that military assistance to Ukraine should not be "escalatory" and "weaken the French army."

·        "We will consider this on a case-by-case basis," Macron added.

22:26: The first 60 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles went to Ukraine - US Department of Defense

·        The cargo, which contained more than 60 Bradley, left the shores of North Charleston, South Carolina on January 25.

22:15 The Wall Street Journal: South Korea has refused to send lethal weapons to one of the parties to the conflict in Ukraine because it is prohibited by law.

·        President Yun Suk El reportedly responded to NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg during his visit to Seoul to call on Seoul to provide weapons to Ukraine.

·        At the same time, the publication noted that South Korea had signed major agreements on the supply of hundreds of tanks, aircraft and other weapons to Poland.

21:53: The European Union has added to the sanctions list the Iranian state corporation HESA, which produces drones, Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, helicopters, as well as Kowsar and Saeqeh fighters.

·        The official EU magazine says that the company has been sanctioned for transferring its equipment used in the war against Ukraine to Russia. She is also responsible for supplying the Russian army with kamikaze drones.

21:43: Ukraine does not know the cause of the explosions at Iranian facilities.

·        This was stated by spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Nikolenko, commenting on media reports that the Ukrainian attorney in Tehran was summoned due to comments from the Ukrainian side on recent events in Iran.

21:33: France and Australia have agreed to supply Ukraine with 155-mm shells for artillery, the country's defense ministers said.

·        The first deliveries of multimillion-dollar aid are scheduled for the first quarter of 2023. Assistance will be regular, one of the ministers said.

20:35: Olympic boxing champion Wladimir Klitschko has appealed to IOC President Thomas Bach not to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to attend international competitions.

·        "Today, the Russians are Olympic champions in crimes against civilians. They have a gold medal for the deportation of children and the rape of women. You cannot place your Olympic emblem on these crimes, because you will become an accomplice to this disgusting war," Wladimir Klitschko stressed.

19:44 Radio Liberty: The European Union should agree on a new package of sanctions against Belarus over participation in Russia's war against Ukraine this week.

·        The journalist also said that the tenth sanctions package against Russia should be presented in about two weeks.

19:30: Challenger tanks will arrive on the front lines in Ukraine by summer or May this year, British Defence Minister Ben Wallace said.

17:54: Iran and Russia have consolidated their banking systems after the West massively disconnected those countries from the SWIFT system, Reuters.

·        Now, to transmit interbank messages, they use their own system. About 700 Russian banks and 106 foreign banks from 13 countries will be connected to this system, said Mohsen Karimi, deputy head of the Central Bank of Iran.

17:27 Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto: Finland will continue to join NATO with Sweden for now, despite problems in negotiations with Ankara and Turkey's hints that Finland's bid is ready to ratify sooner.

·        He noted that both NATO and individual member states also stressed that it was best for Finland and Sweden to become members of the Alliance at the same time.

16:29: Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Andrei Kostin is on an official visit to the United States of America, the Attorney General's Office said.

·        During the visit, Andrei Kostin will hold a series of high-level meetings to continue US support, to ensure prosecution for international crimes, the creation of an International Tribunal for the leadership of the Russian Federation, and the construction of a compensation mechanism for victims of aggression.

16:55: Lukashenko arrives on an official visit to Zimbabwe.

15:54: Croatian President Zoran Milanovic claims that the West has taken Kosovo from Serbia and, at the same time, Crimea will never become Ukrainian again.

15:44: Russia is preparing for a new attempt to seize the entire Ukraine, we see it, says NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during a speech at the CHEY Institute for Advanced Study in Seoul.

·        "We see that they are preparing for a new offensive, that they are mobilizing more soldiers, more than 200 thousand people, maybe more. They are actively building up weapons and ammunition," Stoltenberg said.

·        North Korea supplied PMC Wagner with missiles for russia's war with Ukraine.

15:24: Serbia will participate in the restoration of cities in Ukraine after the end of the war, says Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić at a joint press conference with his Czech counterpart Milos Zeman.

·        According to him, Serbia has equipped Ukraine with humanitarian aid by all means and intends to continue this in a large amount.

13:25: Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas criticized the International Olympic Committee's decision to allow Russian and Belarusian citizens to participate in the 2024 Olympic Games under a neutral flag.

NATIONAL

January 31

11:36: Ukraine needs up to 200 F-16 fighter jets to fully protect the sky – Minister of Defense

·        According to him, it is necessary to create up to 5 tactical aviation brigades with one type of western-style multipurpose aircraft - the F-16 will be the most likely candidate to replace Soviet fighters.

11:27 Ukrenergo: Electricity consumption continues to grow due to cooling. There is a significant shortage in the power system.

·        All regional power distribution companies have been brought to consumption limits, which are valid during the day. Given the trend towards increased consumption, there is a danger of exceeding limits in the regions and applying restrictions.

10:54: Quantum-Systems GmbH has announced the supply of 105 additional reconnaissance UAVs with a long Vector flight duration for military support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The order is financed by the German government, - the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.

·        In addition, in order to further support Ukrainian forces, Quantum-Systems also announces the opening of a Vector operator training center in Ukraine. This facility will also become a local hub for the purchase of spare parts and repair services.

07:09 Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

·        "During the past day, the enemy inflicted 3 air and 4 missile strikes. He carried out more than 60 shellings from the MLRS on residential buildings in the cities of Kherson and Ochakov. There are casualties among civilians.

·        The enemy continues to conduct offensive operations in the Liman and Bakhmut directions, suffering heavy losses. Conducts unsuccessful offensive operations in the Avdiivka and Novopavlovsk directions. In the Kupyansk and Zaporozhye directions, it defends the previously captured frontiers.

·        There is a disbelief of the personnel of the Russian Federation's units in the decisions of their own military-political leadership and the exhaustion of personnel from the intensity of hostilities

·        Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repulsed Russian attacks in the areas of the settlements of Novoselovskoye, Bilohorivka, Luhansk region and Yampolivka, Dispute, Krasnaya Gora, Paraskoviyivka, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Ivanovske, Avdiivka, Vodiane, Pervomaiske and Vuhledar in the Donetsk region,

·        The Russians continue to suffer heavy losses and have begun to use additional civilian medical facilities to house wounded Russian soldiers

·        In the city of Luhansk, on the territory of the maternity hospital of the city hospital No. 3 and the maternity hospital of the regional hospital, Russian troops deployed a "field hospital" where Russian servicemen are treated. Due to the use by the enemy of two maternity hospitals for the treatment of wounded Russians in the city, it is possible to take birth only in the Luhansk regional perinatal center, where there is a catastrophic lack of places and risks and unfavorable conditions for childbirth are created.

January 30

23:06: The Ministry of Defense has been instructed to open prices for food and goods for the army.

·        According to the Prime Minister of Ukraine, it will be "an updated system that will ensure secrecy and public control over procurement."

·        To do this, a separate working group has been created to consider the possibility of creating a separate section in Prozorro for military needs.

22:46: G7 ambassadors reminded Ukraine of the need to approve the state anti-corruption program.

·        "This will strengthen Ukraine's resilience during the war and will be another step towards its European future," the ambassadors said.

22:05: The State Emergency Service is actively training civilians in mine safety, said Head of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine Serhiy Kruk.

·        "We have everything from the process of training, advanced training of our employees to a variety of applications for citizens that function in phones. We protect people, we work with them in these matters. We have several safety classes and classrooms for teaching children in schools, and throughout the country," said Serhii Kruk.

21:08: Responsible Country project identifies the best charitable and socially significant projects last year https://delo.ua/business/vidpovidalna-krayina-408560/

·        80 largest companies in the country took part in the project.

·        Favbet Foundation won the nomination of charitable foundations, which, among other things, helps refugees inside Ukraine and abroad.

20:01: Ukraine has launched a telephone application "Digital Cotton", which helps to ddos-it Russian sites.

·        The developers talked about the details: the application is easy to use, works in the background of the smartphone (so far only for Android) and does not overheat it.

·        "Every Ukrainian can help Ukraine's IT army attack the enemy," the developers note.

·        Details: https://www.uabavovna.com/#download

19:15: 32 million hryvnias of Russian businessman Oleg Deripaska arrested in Ukraine.

·        At the request of the Prosecutor General's Office, 32 million people were arrested. UAH. Ukraine's largest producer of metallurgical alumina and aluminum hydroxide, owned by a sanctioned Russian oligarch.

·        The Prosecutor General's Office does not indicate which enterprise is in question, but it is known from open sources that such a manufacturer is the Nikolaev Alumina Plant.

18:40: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

·        The enemy continues to conduct offensive operations in the Liman, Bakhmut, Avdievsky and Novopavlovsk directions. In other areas - defended.

·        Russian troops launched 4 missile strikes during the day. They also carried out more than 10 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems on civilian infrastructure of the city of Ochakov in the Mykolaiv region.

·         According to available information, in local schools in the settlements of the Kakhovka district, Russians prohibit schoolchildren from studying online according to the Ukrainian program.

·        Local teachers refuse to teach children according to the Russian program, because of this, Russians threaten to forcibly take children to the so-called "study" deep into the temporarily occupied Kherson region, as well as to Russia and the occupied Crimea.

·        In the village of Tavria, Skadovsk district, Kherson region, in the premises of a kindergarten, the Russians deployed a "field hospital" where Russian servicemen are treated. It is overflowing with heavily injured Russian military.

·        During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine inflicted 4 strikes on the areas of concentration of the enemy, and units of rocket troops and artillery hit 3 control points, 4 areas of concentration and 2 ammunition depots of Russian troops.

18:24: In the 7 months since Ukraine introduced the visa regime with Russia, only 12 Russian citizens have received visas to enter the Ukraine, said Head of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine Andriy Demchenko.

·        "Almost all of these 12 Russians crossed the border and entered the Ukraine. These were women, children and the elderly who received a visa and went to Ukraine for humanitarian reasons. We are talking about reunification with families or with their loved ones," Demchenko said.

·        At the same time, he noted that the presence of a Ukrainian visa does not guarantee the right to cross the state border of Ukraine. The final decision is already made by the border guards.

14:09: Volodymyr Zelenskyy paid a working trip to the Mykolaiv region.

·        "We discussed the operational situation in the south of Ukraine, the consequences of Russia's missile and drone attacks. We also considered the state of the region's energy infrastructure, the means of its protection and the pace of recovery," the president wrote.

·        Volodymyr Zelenskyy, together with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, visited wounded Ukrainian defenders in one of the hospitals in Mykolaiv.

·        "From the first days of a full-scale invasion, Denmark has been helping Mykolaiv and supporting the city. Today, together with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, we visited the Mykolaiv Sea Commercial Port," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

·        Individual heat station, which is equipped with an installation for purification and distribution of water in Nikolaev. This project was implemented with the assistance of Denmark, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

·        Volodymyr Zelenskyy, together with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, inspected the building of the Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration, partially destroyed by Russian rocket attacks.

·        Volodymyr Zelenskyy: "Today's visit of Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to Ukraine is an important symbol of Denmark's unwavering and strong support for our struggle for freedom and our common European values."

·        Denmark became one of the first partner countries to accept the offer of our state to take patronage over the reconstruction in Ukraine, in particular the city of Mykolaiv, - Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

·        "I am grateful to the coalition government of Denmark for creating a separate fund to help our country. One of the key areas of his work should be reconstruction. I believe that together we will be able to return peace and development to Mykolaiv and the entire region," the President of Ukraine added.

13:16 Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine: The aggressors have no place at the Olympics.

·        "Russia won 71 medals at the Tokyo Olympics. 45 of them were won by athletes who are also members of the Central Sports Club of the Russian army. An army that commits atrocities kills, rapes and loots. This is who the unconscious IOC wants to put up under a white flag and allow them to compete," the minister wrote on Twitter.

13:05 Polish Prime Minister: Poland can hand over its F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine if such a decision is supported by NATO.

·        "As it was a few months ago in the context of the MiGs, so too will any other air force be implemented and possibly transferred in coordination with NATO countries. Here we will act in full coordination," Morawiecki said.

12:35: Iran summoned the Chargé d'Affaires of Ukraine in Tehran, writes Al Arabiya.

·        The reason is Ukrainian comments on the drone strike on a military plant in the central Iranian province of Isfahan.

12:45 Institute for the Study of War: Delays in providing Ukraine with the necessary military assistance by the West, including tanks, have limited the ability of the Defense Forces to carry out large-scale counter-offensive operations.

·        The main conclusion of the report is that Ukraine needs to provide all the necessary funds for the offensive as soon as possible, otherwise the war will be delayed again.

12:24: SBU detains Russian agent who corrected missile strikes on Kharkiv

·        According to the investigation, an unemployed local resident turned out to be hostile to Russia, whom a representative of the Russian Federation involved in illegal activities in November last year. He collected information about the locations and routes of movement of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city.

12:14 Operational Command South: In the Black Sea, Russian troops are holding 11 ships, including two surface and one underwater missile carrier. The total volley of "Calibers" - 20 missiles.

·        In the Sea of Azov, one enemy ship monitors the surface situation.

MORDOR (Russia)

January 31

10:20: The SBU exposes an agent of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (better known as the GRU) who worked for Russian intelligence in the eastern regions of Ukraine

·        The attacker was a deputy of the Seversk City Council from the "OPZZh" party banned in Ukraine.

·        Since October last year, he has been collecting intelligence on the deployment of units of the Defense Forces in the Bakhmut district. He also transmitted the coordinates of local critical infrastructure facilities, including power generating enterprises.

10:11. British intelligence: Over the past three days, the Russians have moved from probing attacks around the cities of Pavlovka and Vuhledar into a more coordinated assault and moved the front line a bit.

·        "There is a realistic possibility that Russia will continue to achieve local success in this sector. But it is unlikely that it has enough untapped troops in the area to achieve an operational, significant breakthrough."

09:04: The Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced the start of new exercises with Russia. We are talking about "staff trainings", within which they will plan the "use of troops" of the two countries.

·        "During the week, representatives of the military departments of the two states will work out the issue of joint planning of the use of troops based on the experience of armed conflicts in recent years," the statement said.

08:42 Institute for the Study of War: Russia is likely to carry out an offensive in the Luhansk region in the coming months.

·        Such assumptions were made by analysts after the statement of NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg that Russia was not ready for peace talks. Also, the data of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report on the strengthening of the Russian army in the Donbas.

January 30

23:46 Defense Express: The Russians have turned the abandoned airfield in the temporarily occupied Berdyansk into their own base for helicopters and continue to use it.

23:34: Traitor officers from Crimea were notified of suspicion of treason.

·        According to the SBU, after the seizure of a military unit in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the chief of staff and the group commander refused to be relocated to the controlled territory and swore allegiance to Russia.

·        As it turned out, it was these military who are behind the use of the UR-77 Meteorite installation in the urban quarters of Mariupol. They face a sentence of up to 15 years in prison.

14:53: Russia has deployed new troops to Belarus. Other units that were trained returned to Russia, SBGS spokesman Andriy Demchenko said.

·        "The situation on the border with Belarus remains fully under control. Of course, this direction is quite tense, there are about 9 thousand Russian troops in Belarus," he said.

2:43 : Former FSB officer and former defense minister of the so-called "DPR" Igor Strelkov-Girkin said that statements about the breakthrough of Russian troops in Vuhledar "were as he expected lies."

·        According to him, Russian soldiers had problems in the Donetsk direction. The offensive in Marinka also stopped.

13:49 Bloomberg: Russia has spent 50 years creating an energy market in Europe. Putin destroyed it in less than 50 weeks.

·        The publication notes that it will be almost impossible to replace the logistics chains of the energy market, which have been built for decades.

13:38: Pro-Russian Telegram channels spread fakes about provocations by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council.

·        The occupiers' report refers to the intentions of the Ukrainian military to shoot civilians by dressing in the uniform of the Wagner PMC in order to accuse Russia of war crimes.

·        According to the enemy, executions are planned in cities on the contact line — Chasiv Yar, Lyman, Bakhmut, Kostiantynivka.

KHARKIV

January 31

08:56 Kharkiv RMA: Last day, Russians shelled Kupyansk, Vovchansk, Strelecha, Dvorechnaya and other border settlements in Kharkiv, Chuhuiv and Kupyansk districts.

·        As a result of the shelling of Vovchansk, unfortunately, a 62-year-old civilian was killed. An 83-year-old woman was injured. Hospitalized in a state of moderate severity.

January 30

12:55 Kharkiv RMA: Today, at about 10:20 am, the enemy again shelled the city of Vovchansk, Chuhuiv district.

·        The shelling killed a 62-year-old man. In addition, an 85-year-old woman was injured.

LUHANSK

January 31

DONETSK

January 31

11:05 Donetsk RMA: Vuhledar community suffers in Volnovakha direction: 4 shellings in Novoukrainka, intense fire in Vuhledar. There was no information about the victims.

·        In Donetsk sector, the day before, 1 person was wounded in Kurakhove, 2 high-rise buildings and 3 private houses were damaged in the city. At night and in the morning, 2 shellings of Avdiivka took place - without casualties.

·        In the Gorlovka direction, the Russians launched a missile strike on the Ivanopillya of the Konstantinovskaya community — 3 private houses were damaged.

·        Another 2 houses were damaged on the outskirts of Chasovy Yar. The situation in the Soledar community is tense: 1 house in Vasyukivka and several houses in Paraskoviivka were damaged. In Toretsk, the Russians targeted the building of the mine, without casualties.

·        In total, according to Reuters, the Russians wounded 3 residents of the Donetsk region for a day.

January 30

17:15 Donetsk RMA: Kurakhove is under fire again - 1 person is wounded.

·        "This afternoon, the Russians targeted a residential area — a 5-storey building, a 2-storey building and 3 private houses were damaged."

14:22 SBU press service: According to the SBU, Russian agents who "leaked" the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donetsk region will be held behind bars for up to 10 years.

·        The perpetrators collected intelligence for the aggressor on the deployment and movement of units of the Defense Forces in the front-line areas of the Donetsk region.

·        First, they were interested in the positions of Ukrainian defenders in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

·        In addition, they transmitted to the enemy the location and information about the technical condition of critical infrastructure facilities in the region.

15:34: Advisor to the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko showed what the Kalmius district looks like in the temporarily occupied city.

·        "The private sector has been completely destroyed, high-rise buildings in which people continue to live have been broken," Andryushchenko said.

ZAPORIZHIA

January 31

January 30

18:09: Russia currently does not have the resource for a full-fledged offensive in the Zaporozhye direction, says Yevgeny Yerin, spokesman of the Tavria group of troops.

·        The spokesman also said that in the area of Gulyaipol and in some other areas of the front, Russians tried to storm in groups of about 10 people to improve the tactical situation, but Ukrainian positions remained with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

DNIPRO

January 31

09:12 Dnipro Regional Council: At night, the Russian army struck the Myrivska community in the Nikopol district. They beat with heavy artillery, firing about ten shells.

·        As a result, three private residential buildings were damaged, and two outbuildings and power lines were also affected. The survey of the shelling areas continues. People are unharmed.

January 30

17:21 Social Networks: The sounds of explosions were heard in Dnipro.

KHERSON

January 31

09:48: According to Kherson RMA, Russians shelled the territory of Kherson region 54 times.

·        Kherson itself was shelled by the Russian army 7 times. No civilian casualties were recorded last day.

00:53: russia is NEVER here: a mural with such an inscription was created by an artist in Kherson

·        Rivne artist Konstantin Kachanovsky depicted a girl erasing the coat of arms of Russia – a golden double-headed eagle, and on the side there is an inscription: "Russia is NEVER here."

January 30

20:50 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.

19:24 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Stanislav, Kherson region.

12:49 Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.

MYKOLAIV

January 31

January 30

00:46: Volunteer Olesya Rudchenko shared a photo of a destroyed house in Mykolaiv, where a clock still hangs on the surviving wall after a Russian rocket hits.

ODESA

January 31

VINNYTSIA

January 31

CHERNIHIV

January 31

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://cutt.ly/Blyskavka

www.ubn.news