Bob Homans April 28

20220429

Ukraine – 4/28 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
April 28, 2022

Natalie Jaresko

Natalie Jaresko is the former Finance Minister of Ukraine.   She spoke this morning at a webinar put on by the U.S. – Ukraine Business Counci (USUBC).   I am not going to go into detail here, as those of you who are interested can watch the entire webinar on USUBC’s YouTube Channel.

Here are some highlights from the webinar:

·       Banking System Remains Strong - Compared to the 2008 Financial Crisis and early 2014, at the end of the Revolution of Dignity and Russia’s invasion of Crimea, today Ukraine’s banking system is in a strong position.   Today, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has $28 billion in hard currency reserves, compared to approximately $3 billion in early 2014.   The banking system is far stronger than in 2014 when former NBU Governor, Valeria Gontareva, and her team had to shut down over 90 banks, as well as nationalizing Privat Bank which, at the time of its nationalization accounted for 38% of Ukraine’s retail deposits.  When the war ends, this will form a strong basis for increased extensions of personal and business credit.

·       The Currency is Stable – In the 2008 Financial Crisis, the value of Ukraine’s currency, the Hryvna (UAH), fell from UAH 8 to $1.00 to UAH 14 to $1.00.   Exchange rate decreases took place throughout the day.   Ukrainians with car loans or home mortgages payable in hard currency, but had Hryvna income, often walked into banks and dropped their car keys on the counter.

·       Decentralization, Pushing Public Revenues Down to Local Levels, is Working – This provides local officials with far more flexibility in how to spend revenues, and provides local citizens with more transparency.

These are 3 examples of the strong fiscal management in the 8 years since the Revolution of Dignity.

The Economic and Fiscal Impacts of the War:

·       Government Operations - Ukraine needs $5 billion/month, simply to pay the costs for the State medical system, including medicine, hospitals and salaries for medical professionals, military costs, including salaries for service members, pensions, and other forms of support, and operating and maintaining infrastructure, including the State Railroads.   All other government expenditures have been frozen for the duration of the war.

·       Sovereign Debt Repayment – Repayments are currently frozen, but the obligations have not yet been restructured.

·       Reconstruction – Estimated to be $700 billion - $1 trillion, and the war is still going on.   Sources of funding could include frozen Russian Central Bank assets, approximately $300 billion, excise taxes on the export of Russian energy, and the private sector.

For more of Natalie Jaresko’s comments, please watch the USUBC’s YouTube Channel.

Natalie Jaresko said one thing that has stayed with me.   She said that she expects to see increases in investment in Ukrainian military technology, with the Neptune Missile that sank the Russian cruiser “Moskva” as one example of Ukraine’s technology proficiencies, but this example only begins to describe the opportunity that will become more evident after the war is over and Ukraine wins.

Anyone who has followed this war, and/or has spent time in Ukraine, has seen the creativity and resourcefulness of Ukrainians in action.   Perhaps, before the war, apart from the IT Industry where the capability of Ukrainians is well-known, this was masked by continual discussions on politics, examples of corruption, Kyiv traffic to name 3.   During the war what Ukrainians have accomplished when they have the right tools is evident for everyone to see.  

One specific example has been crowdfunding.  In the first few years after the Revolution of Dignity, crowdfunding played a huge role in the re-constitution of the Ukrainian Army, in everything from logistics to first aid, to camouflage gear, to small arms.   The reason I was happy to help my friend raise $10,000 for her volunteer unit that provides support for the Army and territorial defense, is that she knows how to productively put that assistance to work.  

After the war, my fondest hope is to see Ukrainians put the resourcefulness that they are showing in defeating the Russians on the battlefield to work in in the private sector.   I also hope that non-Ukrainians come to understand what a huge opportunity this resourcefulness will offer, once the shooting stops.

However, these developments will be limited, unless Ukraine reforms its court system, especially in resolving commercial disputes and protecting property rights.   Property rights includes not just ownership of land, real property and equipment, but the rights of creditors necessary to protect their interests, critical to successfully extending the huge amount of commercial credit that will be necessary when the war is over.

For those who do want to support Ukraine my advice, based on my own experience, is to find a group that is involved something like in territorial defense, or a group that is producing camouflage gear, first-aid equipment, etc., get to know who they are, and support them.   I’m not suggesting that giving to a large charitable organization is a bad idea, but in my experience at least, the impact of your giving is far greater when you find groups such as what I’ve described.

4/28 Sitrep (my comments in Bold Face)

I am aware that many of the recipients of this daily forward it.  One of those people has a following of over 1,500 daily recipients including elected and serving government officials.  I condone this practice.

I give all the recipients permission to forward without asking.  If you want, I can add people to the list.   I’d be happy to do the same.

Another issue is providing recipients with information about Ukraine assistance projects/funds.  There are at least 14 individual recipients actively assisting Ukraine/Ukrainians. 

However, this is not a fund-raising effort or newsletter.  I’m sorry but I am not accepting or sending out advertisements no matter their nobility.  

I don’t accept any third-party solicitations either.   If I see a particularly worthy solicitation, offered by someone whom I know personally, I will include it as I have already done.   Email recipients have responded to this solicitation by donating over $10,000.

Here is another -

https://welcome.us/

.    It is a website that I heard about from Natalie Jaresko, former Finance Minister of Ukraine.   It helps connect Americans with Ukrainians who are coming to the United States to flee the war.   I have already signed up.

INTERNATIONAL

The war in Ukraine is affecting global food security.  An excellent overview of how that is happening and countermeasures was published in today’s Financial Times.  https://ig.ft.com/ukraine-war-food-insecurity/ To the best of my knowledge the FT provides access to its War in Ukraine and Covid stories as a public service so you should be able to read this if you are interested.

Demonstrations in support of Ukraine yesterday Dublin and Moscow.

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services: In two days, more than 4 thousand Americans have applied to sponsor Ukrainians who want to come to the States as part of the Unite for Ukraine program.

Reuters:  Exxon Mobil Corp said on Wednesday that its Russian arm, Exxon Neftegas Ltd, has declared force majeure on Sakhalin-1 operations due to sanctions on Russia that are making it increasingly difficult to ship oil to customers.

Helsingin Sanomat newspaper:  Finland refused to pay for Russian gas in rubles.  "We do not agree with the payment in rubles, this can be seen as blackmailing Russia and as part of the geopolitical efforts of the Russian Federation," says Minister for European and Corporate Governance Tuppurainen.

BBC News: US special envoy for international justice:  "The Russian military shot dead Ukrainians who tried to surrender near Donetsk.  We have reliable information about this."  "The world is watching, and you will be held accountable."

Reuters:  Human rights lawyer Amal Clooney on Wednesday urged countries at the United Nations to focus on international justice for war crimes in Ukraine so that evidence does not lie in vaults, as happened with victims of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria.

Onet:  Poland extended for 60 days the deadline for the payment of assistance to refugees from Ukraine.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki declared the country's complete independence from Russia and its gas:

White House Press Secretary:  White House plans to submit proposal to Congress for long-term aid package for Ukraine.   Today, President Biden sent to Congress a request for $33 billion in additional aid to Ukraine, including military, economic and humanitarian aid.   The measure will provide funds until September 30th, the end of the Fiscal Year.

Spiegel:  Germany will allocate additional 20 million euros for cultural support to Ukraine.  "The Russian war of conquest is to destroy the culture and identity of Ukraine.  Therefore, we are doing everything possible to protect Ukrainian cultural sites from Russian destructiveness,” German Minister of Culture.

Daily Sabah:  Moscow handed over an American, former Marine Trevor Reed, to Washington in exchange for Russian pilot Kostiantyn Yaroshenko yesterday.

Reuters:  On Wednesday, April 27, the Parliament of Canada unanimously voted that the actions of the Russian Federation in Ukraine should be called genocide.

Krasnoyarsk Legislative Assembly in Russia plans to replenish its food reserves with looted agricultural products from Ukraine, according to its website.  The documents outlining the plan were later removed from the site and the government there claimed it had been hacked.

Slovak Prime Minister:  Slovakia proposes to permanently abolish duties on Ukrainian exports to the EU

Bloomberg:  The EU may cancel all fees and quotas on exports from Ukraine.  The announcement of such a decision may happen as early as this week.  In particular, this will include the temporary cancellation of existing tariffs and quotas on steel, manufactured goods and agricultural products, which are not yet covered by the EU trade agreement with Ukraine.

The House of Representatives of the US Congress passed bill HR 6930, which provides for the confiscation of assets of Russian sanctioned legal entities and individuals.  417 US congressmen voted in favor.

·       The Rules Committee is now meeting to consider S/ 3522: Lend-Lease Law for the Defense of Democracy in Ukraine of 2022. Lend-lease is the transfer of ammunition, equipment, food and strategic raw materials on a gratuitous basis.

US Secretary of State:  “Washington aims to provide the Ukrainians with everything they need to push the Russians out of the country.  Should Ukrainians take actions that go beyond their borders?  My own view is that it is vital for them to do whatever is necessary to defend against Russian aggression.  And the choice of tactics in this case is their own decision.”

·       Lifted several restrictions on the transfer of intelligence information to Ukraine -

·       The United States is exploring possibility of including the Russian Federation on its list of countries sponsoring terrorism.

·       Offered a $ 10 million reward for information leading to the arrest of GRU hackers.

·       "For every tank that the Russians had in Ukraine, we, together with 30 allies and partners, were able to provide 10 anti-tank systems. For every aircraft that the Russians sent into the airspace, we provided 10 of this or that anti-aircraft ammunition."

Israeli authorities canceled mass parades and marches on May 9th.

Russian Presidential Speaker: ”Putin did not agree to the evacuation of Azovstal in Mariupol during negotiations with UN Secretary General António Guterres”.

Business Insider:  Brazil will provide 300,000 shells for German Gepard anti-aircraft cannon tanks

Reuters: ”Shell” will no longer accept Russian oil in any quantity, including blends

President of Moldova Maia Sandu acknowledged the lack of a combat-ready army in the country and promised to fix it:  "For 30 years, the Moldovan army has been left without military equipment and is not combat-ready.  Now we are aware of the consequences".

People are leaving en masse from the unrecognized Transnistria.  The government there has announced a general military mobilization of all males between 18 and 60.  By virtue of having at least 1 Romanian grandparent, around 20% of the population of Moldova, around 4 million, hold Romanian passports allowing them to enter the EU. 

Gazprom which was to have completed restructuring Moldova’s gas debts by May 1 has stopped communicating with Moldovagas.  There is a possibility Moldova may be cut off from Gas supplies on May 1.  Yesterday Gazprom cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, because they refuse to pay for gas in Roubles.

Neue Zuercher Zeitung: As part of sanctions, Switzerland arrested more than $9 billion worth of Russian assets.

Putin: "If someone wants to intervene in the situation in Ukraine from outside and creates a strategic threat, our retaliatory strikes will be lightning-fast."

Belarus introduced the death penalty for an attempt to commit an act of terrorism. 

COTY, the French cosmetic giant, owner of Max Factor and other labels is cutting off business in Russia.

Indonesian President, Joko Widodo, invited Zelenskyi to the G20 summit.

Australia will send six howitzers and ammunition to Ukraine. In addition, Australia is sending $65 million worth of humanitarian aid and at least 70,000 tons of thermal coal.

NATIONAL

Ukrainian Prime Minister, in an op-ed for “The Economist”, specified that in six weeks of hostilities, the damage to the country exceeded $500 billion.  According to him, by the end of this year, Ukraine's GDP could fall by 30-50%, and the total damage to Ukraine from the war in the long term could rise up to $1 trillion.

In May Russia intends to hold a referendum on the annexation of occupied Donbas the Russian edition of Meduza reports, citing sources in the Kremlin.

Ukraine Minister of Defense:  "There are several difficult weeks ahead.  Russia has accumulated forces for a large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine and is intensifying the offensive, but assistance to Ukraine will grow."

Ukrainian Foreign Minister:  Russia has been expelled from the World Tourism Organization.   "The only direction of travel for Russian war criminals should be The Hague".

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

·       Yesterday in Kherson oblast Ukrainian forces destroyed two Russian ammunition depots in Molodetske and Velyka Oleksandrivka.

·       Yesterday Ukraine’s anti-aircraft forces hit eight air targets: one aircraft, one cruise missile and six operational-tactical UAVs.

·       Yesterday in Donbas six attacks by the Russian army were repulsed, five tanks, one artillery system, twenty-two armored vehicles, one car and one anti-aircraft gun were destroyed.

·       Russian forces are attempting to attack Severodonetsk from Lyman and Orikhiv.

·       Russian forces started to use the Melitopol airfield for basing and flying Su-25 attack aircraft, Ka-52 attack helicopters and Mi-8 transport and combat aircraft.

·       Russian forces in Zaporizhia entrenched themselves in Tavrycheske, actively shelling Ukrainian troops near Oleksandrivka and Nova Zoria, and building up in Stanislav and Molodetske, rocket and artillery units.

·       Ukraine eliminated Russian intelligence officer Vladimir Gutsov with the call sign "Putin".

·       Russia has halved its stock of missiles.  It will take years to restore the stock due to the sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation.

·       In Belgorod, near the border with the Kharkiv, the Russians deployed a battery of the Iskander-M missile system.

·       Fighting is expected to intensify in the direction of Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv.

·       The military-political international organization, which includes Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan, does not express a desire to participate in the war against Ukraine.

President’s Office:  Near and including Izium, Kharkiv region, Putin's troops occupied 20 sq. km.  “The army operation has been going on since April 4 there and Russian forces advanced 12-17 km.  In the Soviet Union, they would have been shot for such a war.”

·       By end of May will be armed to engage in broad scale offensive.

Russian journalists showed an allegedly destroyed Ukrainian tank, but they forgot to airbrush out Russian symbol Z on the tank.

Yesterday a meeting of the Ukrainian Congress of Local and Regional Authorities discussed post-war reconstruction.

Ukraine needs to provide almost 600,000 apartments to provide internally displaced people with housing.  More than 2 million people have changed their place of residence, that is, they are considered temporarily displaced persons.

Ukrainian Intelligence Service:  Clergy of the Russian Orthodox Church in Russia received clear instructions to agitate the parents and relatives of young Russians, imploring them to get their children to enter into military service

DONBAS

Luhansk Regional Military Administration

·       Dead bodies remain on the streets of some cities. Because of the shelling, it is impossible to take away the dead.

·       Russians are terrorizing the population.  Soldiers rape women, threaten mothers with the murder of children, forcing them to "spy".

Donetsk Regional Military Administration

·       Yesterday one resident of Mariinka was killed, 8 more were wounded because of shelling by Russian forces.

·       Russia plans to annex Mariupol to the Russian Rostov region, children are already being forced to write in notebooks that they live in Russia.

Russian soldiers took out seven original works of art from Mariupol, which were kept in local history and art museums.

Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights:  The Mariupol field hospital is on the verge of closing.  Because of the long siege and the constant shelling of Russian aviation and artillery, it is impossible to replenish the stocks of medicines - painkillers, antibiotics, drugs for anesthesia. People with severed limbs, shrapnel and ball wounds have to go through surgery under the light of a headlamp.

In Mariupol, Russian forces opened a military hospital inside a maternity hospital.

KHARKIV

Kharkiv Regional Military Administration:  

An Izyum resident, died during a battle with Russian soldiers.  Izyum saboteurs entered battle with Russians on the outskirts of the city. Izyum residents managed to destroy at least a dozen Russian soldiers according to a participant.

Barvinkove:  Russian shelling set a fire broke at a tire plant.

Russian troops attacked Chuhuiv, two civilians were injured.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

The authorities of the temporarily occupied part of Kherson announced that the region from May 1 "is becoming the ruble zone."  Media reports reference a statement made by the self-proclaimed deputy head of the military-civilian administration of the region Kirill Stremousov.

Kherson was shelled from Russian controlled city of Оleshki.  Subscribers report that Russian TV channels stopped working after explosions in Kherson

Nova Kakhovka, Kherson, locals took down the Russian flag and raised the Ukrainian one.

In temporarily occupied Kherson, local residents went to a rally in support of Ukraine and against holding a referendum on the creation of 'Kherson People's Republic' under occupation authorities.  The rally was broken up by Russian soldiers firing smoke and stun grenades onto the crowd.  4 Injured.

The Russian appointed government of Kherson Oblast denies it is planning a referendum on the creation of a new puppet state.

Odesa Regional Military Administration: ”Russia is shelling Odesa region with missiles for the sake of at least a small "victory" by May 9th”.

Zaporozhia Regional Military Administration:  Russian troops are forcing the employees of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to hang a portrait of Putin.  Also the staff is forced to take part in the organization of celebrations on May 9 in Enerhodar. Near Enerhodar  local residents report continuous bursts of automatic weapons.

·       Due to damage to the high-voltage line, Zaporizhzhia NPP was transferred to a lower power level and provides power only for its own needs -National Nuclear Power Generation Company

Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration:  A water treatment unit is being delivered from Zhytomyr to Mykolaiv, a city that has been without water for two weeks! Russian soldiers damaged two networks that provided Mykolaiv with water. The unit filters all contaminants in the water. It has 3 degrees of purification and a water flow of 33 liters per minute!

REST OF UKRAINE

Kryvi Rih Regional Military Administration:  "Enemy troops are successfully restrained on the far perimeter. Nearest points of clashes are 50 km away from the city and beyond."

·       "Yesterday afternoon, the populated areas on the border of the Kherson region and the Kryvyi Rih region were shelled. Velyka Kostromka on the border with Kherson region was hit with cluster bombs three times. There were no victims."

The Italian humanitarian organization CESVI intends to contribute to the restoration of Bucha.

Canadian CBC:  In Bucha Russians killed people according to pre-compiled lists.  The Russian were looking for activists, Joint Forces Operation participants and officials.  It is probable that the lists of surnames were created with the help of local collaborators.

Yesterday Russia claimed "the destruction of a large batch of ammunition", in Zaporizhia.  However the Zaporizhzhia Region Military Administration said Russia’s missiles struck an idle enterprise, which was recently in Russian ownership.  The media fake has nothing to do with reality.

Last night a powerful fire resulted from Russian shelling in Zelenodolsk, Dnipro Oblast.

Russian projectiles hit an abandoned industrial area in Sinelnikov Dnipro Oblast.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis