Bob Homans April 2

20220403

I didn’t receive a sitrep yesterday, April 1

Ukraine – 4/2 Sitrep
Compiled by Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
April 2, 2022

4/2 Sitrep – (My comments - Bob Homans - are in bold face) 

Belgorod “Attack-“ A major fuel depot in Belgorod, 20 km from Ukraine’s border with Russia, and 60 km from Kharkiv, was hit by rockets fired from helicopters.  The origin of the helicopters is unknown.  Russia is accusing Ukraine of the attack, but Ukraine has made no comment.  The Belgorod fuel depot is the main supplier of fuel to Russian forces attacking Kharkiv and Donbas.  Its destruction will cause problems for attacking forces.

Peter Zwack, US Army BGEN (Ret), is a CNN military analyst.   He was the Military Attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow until the Spring of 2014.   On last night’s CNN Program “AC-360,” Gen. Zwack described Belogrod as a critical road and rail junction near the Ukrainian border, where all Russian troops who are reportedly transiting from positions north of Kyiv to new positions in Eastern and Southern Ukraine must go through.   Gen. Zwack said that he was in Beogrod in the Spring of 2014, when the city was full of Russian troops preparing to support actions in Donbas.

The latest anecdote in Ukraine.  Pensioners that captured and are keeping more than three Russian arms will lose their utility subsidies.

Breaking Stockholm - Putin is stuck in the Stockholm Syndrome, defined as a “coping mechanism to a captive or abusive situation where, over time, the captives develop positive feelings toward their captors.”  Moscow captured, colonized, and controlled Ukraine for over 400 years but, in the end, Moscow was rejected.  Moscow is shaped by its master slave attitude toward Ukraine and thus Moscow has never acknowledged Ukraine as a Nation.

Some Ukrainians who associated themselves with the captor found fulfillment in emulation.  And if not fulfillment power over their own, better pay and access to the world through Moscow.  Without collaborators Moscow could not rule.

Putin’s experience is that everything is to serve Moscow, as Moscow is the true creator.  Not serving Moscow, or leaving its orbit, is equivalent to Lucifer trying to usurp God.  If it’s not mine, then it has no rights.  If it’s mine, then its only right is to serve.  Collateral damage in the war for right doesn’t exist. 

Putin, in his head, is not losing the war.  He is not getting bad advice.  He is stuck in believing that everything is to serve Moscow.  This does not square with the facts.  His destiny is failure.

Ukrainians, even collaborators, have universally stopped believing that Moscow is their destiny.  Ukraine’s destiny is now its own and it will win.

Suspected Belarus Sabotage - In the last three days there have been two derailments of trains in Belarus carrying Russian military equipment.  The map below shows Belarus locations of military derailments from February 28 to March 28, 2022 (see map below).  

War Crimes - Ukraine’s Prosecutor General has registered 3,701 war crimes and 2,507 national security crimes from the start of the invasion.  They have also registered the killing of 153 children and wounding of another 245.

Kazakhstan - Kazakhstan announced yesterday that it supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and is against the war.  This bold policy statement will not go down well in Moscow.   Several months ago Moscow intervened in Kazakhstan to support the current President, so their announcement of support for Ukraine is even more significant.   In addition, there is a large Russian speaking minority in Kazakhstan, mostly living in the northern part of the Country, closest to Russia.

New Attacks Against Kyiv - The Pentagon believes that the current retreat from Kyiv is temporary, and that Moscow will attack the city once it pulls additional forces to Belarus.  Moscow committed 100 out of 170 Battalion Tactical Groups it has to the invasion.  Half of them are destroyed or no longer operational.  

Some of these formations are already committed to Eastern Ukraine.   It is unclear where Russia will get the additional troops to immediately recoup the losses it has already incurred in and around the Kyiv Theater of Operations.   Possibilities include:

·        The Russian Draft.  Yesterday, Putin signed an order drafting 135,000 Russians for military service.  However, they will have to go through at least 4 months of training prior to becoming combat ready.   However, according to reports many draftees have already indicated their refusal to fight in Ukraine.

·        Syrian Mercenaries - 300 Syrian mercenaries reached Moscow and are being prepared for action against Ukraine.  Russia planned to recruit 20,000 Syrians. 

·        South Ossetia – South Ossetia is a breakaway republic of Georgia.  A group of 2,000 South Ossetian soldiers on their way to the front has been reduced by 300 Ossetians who got off the train and are on their way home.

NATIONAL

      Anonymous announced that it hacked the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate, and will shortly be releasing 15 gigabytes of confidential information, hopefully including the Church’s complicity in laundering money for previously sanctioned members of the Russian Government and oligarchy, as well as including Putin.  They also hacked Russian manufacturers of ballistic missile systems.

      The United States will help Ukraine to acquire additional Soviet-Era tanks following Germany’s move to provide Ukraine with armored equipment.  Australia is providing Ukraine with Bushmaster armored carriers and arms.  Germany provided Ukraine with a list of arms and munitions for it to select what it needed most.

      The first known death caused by radiation from Chernobyl was announced yesterday.  It was a Russian soldier who spent three weeks in Chernobyl.  In addition to him, there are another 26 soldiers in intensive care because of radiation poisoning, and another 73 have been hospitalized.  The Soldiers were living in Dugouts around the sarcophagus.  While evacuating the area the soldiers looted the administration building and the workers’ hotel.  They took computers, dishware and other consumer goods.

      Yesterday Ukraine’s parliament passed laws banning Russian political parties and statements or speech that praises Russian neo-fascism or totalitarianism. 

      Ukraine’s government dropped all taxes, duties and tariffs on goods and parts used in making military equipment.

      Russians continue to kidnap local government officials.  In the last forty-eight hours two city councils have been abducted, and four mayors.

      UNESCO says that over fifty internationally recognized and protected historical monuments and buildings have been damaged since the start of this war.  Another 85 historical monuments of national significance have also been damaged by the war.

      Yesterday Ukraine’s military command said that retreating Russian forces are regrouping and may be able to counterattack in a couple of weeks.  The Pentagon and British intelligence agreed with these conclusions and said that most of the forces retreating from Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblasts will be repositioned in Southeastern Ukraine. 

      Yesterday, Gerard Depardiu, the Oscar and Cannes winning actor\who was made a honorary Russian citizen by Putin, denounced the war and renounced his Russian citizenship.

      Ukrainian impounded 12 Russian transport airplanes stranded in the country.

      From the beginning of the invasion six grain elevators have been destroyed.  Ukraine is starting to export grain through Romania and Poland.  However, these routes will not affect global supply or Ukraine’s large grain reserves.  Spring sowing has started in 21 Oblasts.

      A Ukrainian general in its intelligence service, who was likely a Russian agent, tried to flee the country using false documents which listed him as an ordinary agent.  He was arrested at the Hungarian border and is in custody.

REGIONAL

This is an excellent series of maps, appearing in today’s New York Times, showing the attempts by Russia to encircle and eventually occupy Kyiv.   Some orientations and observations, based on my having lived in Kyiv:

·        On the first map, showing the outline of the City of Kyiv, we live toward the upper left-hand side, not far from the forested area where I used to go cross-country skiing.   The road that has the 90-degree bend is Kyiv’s Ring Road.   The destroyed shopping center is located 10 minutes’ walk from where we live.

·        On the first map, Obolon is located just above the letter “K” in KYIV, along the Dnieper River.  On the 2nd day of the war a Russian tank column entered Obolon, was trapped and then destroyed.

·        The attacking helicopters, shown in the first picture, are flying over what is called the “Kyiv Sea,” formed by a hydroelectric dam that is just to the right of the picture.   They are likely flying over the City of Vyzhgorod, just north of Kyiv located at one end of the dam.   My wife’s brother and his family live in Vyzhgorod, but they have now relocated to a place located around 70 miles southeast of Kyiv.

·        Peremohy Avenue, mentioned on one of the later maps, is shown on the first map leading out of Kyiv to the west.  It is the main route from Kyiv to Chop, on Ukraine’s border with Slovakia.   On the 2nd day of the war Russian columns were able to move into Kyiv using Peremohy Ave., and from the north into Obolon.

·        A later map shows possible Russian invasion routes into Kyiv.   They are marked by yellow arrows.   4 of the yellow arrows come from the west and are aimed at the forested area near where we live.   The roads are well defined, and they would be potential shooting galleries for Ukrainian forces hiding in the forest.  If the Russians could even get through the forested area, to get to the center of Kyiv they would have to go down Prospekt Svoboda, a broad thoroughfare bordered by tall apartment buildings – another shooting gallery.   A later map shows Ukrainian counterattacks going through the forest.   I understand that the forest is now full of unexploded ordnance, making future cross-country skiing a dangerous proposition.

·        Bridges Across the Dnieper – A later map shows 4 bridges, all still intact but, I assume are wired with explosives.   These bridges govern any Russian attack on Kyiv from the east.   As the article mentions, on the other side of the Dnieper there is a steep bluff, preventing any Russian armored attack from the east.   In 1240AD, the bluffs were the major defense line protecting Kyiv from attack by the Mongols.  Instead, they went around to the south, attacked Kyiv from the rear, and sacked the City.

      Ukrainian armed forces liberated Borodianka, Ivankova, Demidov, Dymer, Litvinovka, Gavrilovka, Kozarovychi, Zhovtneve, Glybovka, Iasnohorodka, Talakyn, Sukholyche, Gavronshchyna, Makovyshche, Shestovyche, and Nykolaevka in Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblast.

      In Kyiv 154 apartment buildings, 20 homes, 27 kindergartens and 44 schools have been damaged by Russian rockets and cruise missiles.

      Internet and mobile phone communications have been restored to Irpin and Romanivka thanks to Starlink.

      During March Ukrainian sappers destroyed more than 10,000 mines and unexploded ordinance in Kyiv Oblast.

      The head of Chernihiv administration said that Russian forces are retreating, and restoring communities and demining is amongst the administration’s prime objectives.  Yesterday two columns of volunteers carrying humanitarian aid to Chernihiv were torn apart by Russian machine gun fire.

      The head of Sumy Oblast said that Russian forces are starting to dig defensive positions and look like they will establishing occupation lines.

      Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian transport helicopters near Kharkiv using hand held anti-tank rockets. 

      The mayor of Kharkiv said that all utility and communal payments from February 24 to the end of the war will be written off.

      The city of Izium remains the hottest battleground in Kharkiv Oblast. 1300 people were evacuated from the city in the last twenty four hours.  4 Russian tanks and 2 personnel carriers were destroyed there.

      Ukraine’s military command acknowledged it has lost control of Izium.  It said that small groups of military continue to selectively ambush and counterattack Russian forces there and the supply lines to the city.

      Kharkiv’s Karazin University can no longer operate and is considering relocating parts of its programs to other Ukrainian cities.

      The communities of Saltkov, Piatukhatki, Alexsiivka, Kholodna Hora, Velyka Danilivka, and Derhachi in Kharkiv Oblast are under sporadic artillery, mortar, tank and aerial fire.  Russia launched over 170 ballistic rockets at these communities.

      The communities of Novoselivka, Novobakhmytivka   Donetsk oblast came under artillery and mortar fire. 

      The Red Cross convoy of humanitarian aid for Mariupol that had Russia’s agreement was turned back by Russian forces.

      Over the last forty-eight hours 3000 civilians were evacuated from Mariupol.

      Mariupol city council said that the attack on the city is equivalent to genocide, that the Russian army should be charged with war crimes, and that Putin is a war criminal.

      The communities of Severodonetsk, Rubizhno, Lisichansk, Kremina, Hirske, Berezova and Toshkivka in Luhansk oblast came under artillery, mortar and rocket fire in the last forty-eight hours.

      Ukraine’s military effectively employed a newly delivered British surface to air missile system, Starstreak, to shot down a Russian helicopter near Luhansk yesterday.

      1300 civilians have been evacuated from Lisichansk in the last 48 hours.  The evacuation convoy halted three times to remove newly placed vehicle mines.  Another 300 were evacuated today.

      The oldest districts of Severodonetsk were targeted in the attacks on that city, and municipal garages and workshops were severely damaged.

      The day before yesterday six attacks were beaten back in Luhansk Oblast.  Russians are preparing two massed attacks at Popasne and the area between Kremenoi and Rubezhno in Luhansk Oblast. 

      The Governor of Odesa Oblast announced that Russia has begun mobilizing its army in Trans Dniester in preparation for a possible attack on Ukraine.

      A prisoner of war exchange – 86 for 86 took place yesterday in Zaporizhia.

      Russia is rolling out a massive propaganda campaign in Kherson and Zaporizhia regarding discrimination against the Russian language.  Practically everyone in these Oblasts speak mostly Russian.  The campaign includes calls to create new “Peoples” republics and holding a referendum to legitimate these republics.

      Russia is not allowing citizens evacuating Melitopol to travel to Ukraine.  At the same time Crimean authorities have said they will not accept refugees from Ukraine.

      All the school personnel from directors to janitors handed in resignations saying they will not work with occupiers.  Yesterday they were told the city has a newly appointed mayor and municipal employees must work with him or resign.

      Russian authorities also appointed a new mayor in Kakhovka who was immediately greeted by a large scale demonstration asking him to leave.

      Ukraine’s military command indicated that over the last twenty-four hours Russia has directed rocket attacks against Poltava and Dnipro.  Civilian infrastructure was damaged in the city of Dnipro and a gas station in Kryvii Rih, Dnipro Oblast.  Two people were injured.  Ten rockets were launched against Dnipro Oblast, four of which were intercepted.  Six rockets were launched at Poltava and Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, hitting civilian infrastructure and no one was wounded or killed in these attacks.

News today – My wife’s brother reported that his son-in-law was drafted into the Ukrainian Army.  He reported for duty today.   God bless him.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

https://play.tavr.media/radiobayraktar/