Bob Homans April 11
Ukraine – 4/11 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
April 11, 2022
You will note that except for instances where the President of the Russian Federation takes an action attributed to him, such as appointing a new commanding general for the War in Ukraine, or purging senior intelligence officials, we do not use his name. You won’t see “Putin did this” or “Putin launched an artillery attack against Kharkiv,” or “Putin shot innocent civilians in Bucha,” to use 3 examples. Putin didn’t do these things. Individual Russians did them, either on their own volition or under orders. Therefore, there is no reason to attribute these acts to anyone other than the individual Russians who did them and, because of intercepted cell phone conversations, Ukraine knows their identities.
At the end of WW-II, General Eisenhower ordered the residents of towns near concentration camps like Dachau and Buchenwald, to be marched through the camps, so that no one who lived in those towns could deny responsibility or knowledge of what went on. Thanks to cell phone intercepts, Ukraine knows the identities of family members of Russian soldiers, those who encouraged their loved ones to engage in looting, and often rape and killing.
4/11 Sitrep – (my comments are in Bold Face)
Putin replaced the general in command of the Ukrainian war with General Dvornikov. Dvornikov is known for ordering the butchering of civilians in Grozny and Aleppo. US National Security Advisor said he expects the new commander will focus Russian attacks on destroying civilians and civilian infrastructure. Ukraine’s foreign minister commented saying Russia keeps coming up with new plans, but we have our own plans.
It seems to us that Dvornikov might not be the right person for this job. Aside from butchering civilians in Aleppo and Grozny, where is Dvornikov’s relevant military experience? If it is to be successful, Russian offensive operations in Eastern Ukraine will require someone experienced in tactics, including quick decision-making under uncertainty, directing coordination between air, armor, and infantry, all of which are necessary conditions for operating in the open country of Eastern Ukraine.
Russia’s success in Eastern Ukraine will require a commanding general experienced in delegating authority. There is yet to be a Russian general who has shown himself as a successful delegator of authority, meaning giving responsibility to subordinates and providing sufficient support to subordinates to ensure their success. Gen. Dvornikov is hardly the equivalent of Norman Schwarzkopf, David Petraeus or H.R. McMaster, yet the types of skills shown by these 3 commandeers combat conditions similar to those in Eastern Ukraine will be necessary if Russia is to succeed in their plans. In our opinion, if Gen. Dvornikov is a marketable security, he’d be a “short.”
Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine are in a race to see which country can reposition forces from Northern Ukraine to strengthen forces in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. To move from Belarus, where defeated Russian forces retreated after their debacle around Kyiv, to points in eastern or southern Ukraine, seriously depleted Russian forces that have pulled out of the Kyiv Region will have to make a journey of over 1,000 miles.
Russian authorities raised the threat level in Kursk Oblast, which borders Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, to the second out of three threat levels in expectations of attacks from Ukraine. Ukraine destroyed munitions and fuel bases in neighboring Belgorod Oblast with a rocket and helicopter attack. Ukraine also destroyed two munition bases, one in Luhansk yesterday, and one in Donetsk four days ago.
Russia is issuing Russian passports to Ukrainian civilians forcibly deported from Ukraine. Over 80 percent of deported Ukrainians are women and children, and the remainder are pensioners.
Demonstrations against the war in Ukraine were held in Vienna, London, Helsinki, Leipzig, Munich, Amsterdam, and Dortmund.
Police forces from several US cities are donating protective military gear, helmets, boots, armored vests, and so on, to Ukraine. This is unprecedented and has raised questions in the US media regarding domestic police roles in international conflicts.
Finland and Sweden are ready to join NATO this summer. Washington sees this as a direct consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The Prime Minister of Finland, Sanna Marin, said that the country is ready to quickly give up Russian natural gas and oil
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer is scheduled to visit Russia on Monday, April 11. The purpose of the visit was mentioned as an attempt to "build bridges". According to sources, Nehammer hopes to "try everything to get a little closer to peace” - he believes that this requires not only phone calls but also personal meetings. When he returns to Vienna, perhaps Chancellor Nehammer can persuade former Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissel, who invited Putin to her wedding several years ago, to resign from the Board of Rosneft, and all other Russian State-Owned companies on which she may serve. The same applies to other Austrians.
As a result of Western sanctions, Russia's economy is likely to soon cease to be one of the world's largest economies - US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.
In the near future, Lithuania will organize military exercises for the Ukrainian military which will help them prepare for working with Western equipment.
Russia's first (since 1917) foreign default looks virtually inevitable - in particular, the Russian Treasury has stopped paying dollar debts from Russian accounts in U.S. banks, according to Bloomberg. Larry MacDonald, my neighbor growing up, once gave me a framed Tsarist war bond for my birthday. I still have it. If I remember correctly today, April 11th, is Larry’s Birthday. Perhaps someone can get me a bond from the Russian State Railroad System, whose bonds go into default today, so I can reciprocate.
Pope Francis has called on Moscow and Kyiv to conclude an Easter truce in Ukraine. “Let the Easter truce begin. But not to rearm and resume the battle, but to achieve peace through real negotiations," he said.
France is ready to "go further" and ban Russian oil - said the Minister of Finance and Economy Bruno Le Maire.
The German District of Herford stopped issuing car license plates containing the letter "Z", which is one of the symbols of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Global Initiative "Tribunal for Putin" has documented 1188 episodes of Russian war crimes committed in Ukraine.
Belarus Minister of Economy said western sanctions are destroying key economic sectors.
Japanese pharmaceutical companies Takeda Pharmaceutical and Astellas Pharma have stopped development and investment activities in Russia.
Turkey intends to launch a new airline to enable Russian tourists to come to Turkey. Last year 2 million Russians holidayed in Turkey.
Great Britain delivered 177 powerful emergency electrical generators out of a planned 500 to Ukraine Yesterday.
Slovakia may deliver Soviet Mig 29 fighters in addition to Zuzanna Howitzers to Ukraine.
Ukraine created a Canadian military battalion to accommodate the thousands of Canadian volunteers coming to fight the Russians.
Due to Russia’s failed "special operation" in Ukraine, Putin is purging the 5th Service of the FSB, responsible for intelligence and analysis of Ukraine. In particular, the head of the unit Sergey Beseda was transferred to a pre-trial detention center, his phone has been switched off for two weeks. According to the investigative journalist Hristo Grozev, some of the 150 officers of the 5th Service have been detained, some have not been detained yet, but no longer work for the FSB.
Germany’s foreign minister said today that Ukraine needs heavy weapons, immediately. Creative ways to supply Ukraine with this weaponry must be implemented without delay.
A platoon of French Gendarmes arrived in Lviv this morning. They will be documenting war crimes evidence.
Ukraine’s intelligence service intercepted a telephone conversation between Russian soldiers that retreated from Ukraine and were dislocated on Ukraine’s southeastern border. The soldiers say they will refuse to return to Ukraine because as their comrades were being liquidated nothing was done. They said they are tired of the reference to their Battalion as the dead man’s Battalion.
Russian mobile operators Rostelecom and Transtelecom will not be able to maintain their mobile networks because parts from Ericsson and Nokia are now banned from export to Russia.
Finland’s postal service cut off operations with Russia.
Australia will provide Ukraine with 20 million dollars of anti tank rockets and launchers.
Europe’s largest poultry farm in Chornobaivka, Kherson Oblast, lost 4 million birds as result of losing electricity. Chornobaivka airport, used by the Russian’s as strategic base, suffered 13 Ukrianian attacks that successfully forced the Russians to abandon their plans for the airport. AVANGARDCO IP, the owner of the poultry farm, is one of the World’s largest egg producers.
In Ukraine, 183 children were killed by Russian invaders, and more than 342 wounded. The data is not final as they do not include those who died in Mariupol and other places where active hostilities are taking place.
Ukraine’s Human Rights Ombudsman reported Russian committed atrocities yesterday:
· In the villages of Yahide and Lukashivka in the Chernihiv region, the bodies of people shot by Russians were found in the Church of the Ascension, where the invaders set up headquarters.
· In Irpin, a 20-year-old pregnant girl lost a child after she was raped by the Russian occupiers
· In the village of Makariv in the Kyiv region, an 80-year-old man died after torture, the Russians cut off the old man's hands in front of his daughter
· In the Kherson region, the Russian military decided to beat a 60-year-old man in front of his daughter with butts and sticks
Priests of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate have been collecting signatures to an Appeal to the Council of Primates of the Ancient Eastern Churches to judge the actions of Patriarch Kirill non-Christian. As of 1 a.m. on April 11, 2022, the appeal has been signed by 191 priests from different dioceses of the UOC-MP.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense daily bulletin:
· There is a high possibility of Russian false flag actions in Trans-Dniester, a sliver of territory located between Moldova and Ukraine, occupied by Russian “peacekeepers.”
· Russia continues to regroup its armies and further attacks are anticipated.
· The enemy will continue to strike Ukrainian transport infrastructure facilities to disrupt the supply of goods to the front.
· The invaders continue to partially block Kharkiv. Shelling continues in some areas of the city
· The enemy unsuccessfully attacked Dovgenke and Dmytrivka, northeast and northwest of Kharkiv respectively, and very close to the Russian border, and they retreated to previously occupied positions. This is evidence by controlling these 2 towns, Ukraine has expanded the territory around Kharkiv under its control.
· In Donetsk direction, the enemy continues to focus on taking control of Popasna, Rubizhne, Nyzhne, Novobakhmutivka, Vysokopole, Trudoliubivka and Mariansko, as well as the establish full control over the city of Mariupol.
· The enemy tried to storm Zolotoye but was unsuccessful.
· In Mariupol, with the support of artillery and aircraft, the occupiers continue to storm the areas of the Azovstal plant and the seaport
· In Donbas, Ukraine forces repulsed four enemy attacks, destroyed 5 tanks, 8 armored units, 6 vehicles and 8 enemy artillery systems.
· Ukraine’s air defense destroyed 11 air targets:
o one Su-34 fighter bomber;
o four helicopters (Mi-24, Ka-52);
o three tactical level drones;
o three cruise missiles (X-59).
Russia has assembled no fewer that 32 Su-27 fighter bombers, several IL76 paratrooper transports, and other aircraft in Voronezh based on review of satellite photos provided by Photo Labs.
Russia may divert forces attacking Izium to attack Dnipro according to New York Times.
Ukraine’s electronic civilian identification and documentation system raised 250 million UAH in support of the army.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy pessimistic scenario is that Ukraine may only sow 70% of its normal area under cultivation.
Ukraine’s government has released a billion UAH for reconstruction: - 400 million Kyiv Oblast, 250 million each Chernihiv and Sumy Oblast, and 100 million Zhytomir.
Ukraine’s secretary of the National Security & Defense Council said that Ukraine has information on all able bodied men, including oligarchs and politicians, who fled the country illegally. At the start of the war Ukraine passed a law making it illegal for men between the ages of 18 and 60 to flee.
Ukrainian authorities were able to evacuate 2,824 people from the combat zone on April 10, most of them from Zaporizhzhia region
Some foreign guests visited Ukraine in private, in particular on Saturday the former US Secretary of Defense met with Ukrainian authorities in Kyiv.
KHARKIV – I will use separate maps for Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts
As a result of the shelling of Kharkiv region this Sunday, 10 people were killed, including one child, and
11 others were injured
⚡️ The head of the Kharkiv OVA Oleg Sinegubov: "In different areas of the city we record slow-moving mines. These are the Industrial district, Kiev, Nemyshlyansky, etc. Ammunition with a plastic body, small size weighing about 1.5 kg. Scattered in the yards and residential streets. In no case do not take such ammunition in your hands, do not approach them, do not try to eliminate them yourself. "
In the Donetsk region on April 10 as a result of Russian shelling two people were killed, four were wounded
Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko said that on the advice of the military administration he left the city, but is unable to return.
As a result of a missile strike by the Russian Federation on the railway station in Kramatorsk on April 8, 57 people were killed and 109 wounded
Ukraine’s border forces beat back an attack on Luhansk’s border with Russia destroying one howitzer and killing several attackers.
There is a high probability that Russian troops will use phosphorus munitions in Mariupol, according to British intelligence. "The previous use of phosphorus munitions by Russian troops in the Donetsk region increases the possibility of their future use in Mariupol, as fighting for the city is intensifying," - said in a statement on Twitter
On the night of April 11, a railway station in eastern Ukraine came under fire from the Russian army, the second one after Kramatorsk. No one was injured, the railway continues to work on schedule
Our defenders destroyed a Russian ammunition store near the occupied settlement of Luhansk region. "We have a small victory - what would have been killing our people, was burning for 2.5 hours today" - said the head of the Luhansk Military administration.
The British Ministry of Defense, based on intelligence, reported the mass grave of Ukrainian civilians in the village of Buzova near Kiev
On a municipal beach in Chernihiv, pyrotechnics have seized 6 shells from a Russian Uragan multiple rocket launcher system
A Kyiv monument has been de-russified. Municipal authorities removed the names of Russian and Belarus cities that suffered severe damage in WWII. Instead the monument now recognizes the heroism of Kharkiv, Kherson, Chernihiv, Mykolayiv, Volnovakha, Okhtyrka, Bucha, Irpin, Gostomel and Mariupol
Ukrainian law enforcement officers have confirmed the death of 1,222 residents of Kyiv region at the hands of the Russian invaders.
Over the past 24 hours in Kyiv region electricity was restored in 12 settlements and gas supply - in 16 settlements, demining continues. Also 18 modular homes were erected in cities worst damaged by Russian occupiers to house rescue personnel still taking apart rubble of demolished buildings.
In Kyiv, business is returning to normal. On Saturday, April 9, more than 900 grocery stores, 35 markets and about 460 coffee shops worked in the city
Kyiv’s mayor expects that Russian’s will try again to take the city.
Ukrainian forces found another civilian mass grave in Byzovaia near Kyiv with 50 bodies.
Mykolaiv was hit by rocket fire yesterday causing a massive explosion. The explosion in a wooded area outside the city started a forest fire which was later extinguished. The rockets destroyed two hangars of a large Qatari Agro Holding, with over 200,000 hectares, Continental Farmers.
Russian occupiers in Kherson fired live ammunition at protestors in Kherson and are arresting demonstrators. Fortunately no one was injured.
In Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, two dozen Russian soldiers dressed as civilians came out on the city square waving Russian flags. At the same time Russian soldiers cordoned the square in Nova Kakhovka to prevent Ukrainian demonstrators from expressing their demand that the Russians leave.
Cities and towns in Dnipro, and near its administrative borders are erecting defensive earthworks in expectation that Russia may try a second round of ground attacks on the region.
The chairman of the Dnipro regional council declared that rocket attacks which destroyed Dnipro’s airport made April 10 the most difficult day for the region since the beginning of full-scale invasion of Russian armies.
As a result of Russian missile strikes on Dnipro, its international airport was completely destroyed, 6 rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine were injured
Rockets also hit a grain elevator Zvonetsky, Dnipro.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
"information on all able bodied men, including oligarchs and politicians" - Might be helpful in managing the nominal corruption that had existed. Hopefully will be administered wisely.
''where is Dvornikov’s relevant military experience? ''
Looking back at Russian history, even the most successful generals, such as Zhukov, had the primary tactics of massed artillery followed by mass waves of armour and infantry. Subtlety doesn't come into it. I think that the Russians are going to try to win in East Ukraine through the use of overwhelming firepower and mass numbers. The regime obviously doesn't care about it's own casualties, let alone the devastation caused.
The glimmers of hope are that Russian soldiers are less willing to be sent into the meat grinder than they were under Stalin and that the economy might be stuttering too badly, if even the mobile phone networks start to fail then it might be impossible for Russia to sustain the campaign after a certain point in time.