8th day – still quiet. Homans' excellent sitrep. Covid meltdown. Book review

20220303

All quiet Thursday morning. Didn't hear any missile attacks last night.  My friend Gary in London, who follows the war closely, alerted me to a mutiny among the Russian Marines.

Russians did make a little progress, finally taking Kherson, the key bridge crossing in the South. Gary says that the bridge has been taken and retaken so many times it is scarcely usable, though Russian engineers can probably use the sturdy remaining supports to improvise something. Gary says that the only Russian advance around Kyiv was in Brovary to the east, from which I have been hearing missile strikes for several days. Littwack (below) seems to have the same assessment of the huge armored column that I do.

The grocery stores have been closed for a couple of days. Whether or not Kyiv is completely surrounded, there is no normal delivery of groceries. The civilian population could be getting hungry.

I wrote Bob Homans yesterday that I had reposted his excellent sit rep.  He didn't respond – I'm sure he has better things to do. I am posting it again today. I expect he would be glad to get more readers – write to me and I'll send you his contact information.

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Ukraine – 3/2 Sitrep
Rep. Victoria Spartz
Edward Luttwak
The Russian Column
By: Robert Homans
March 2, 2022

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Indiana) – Rep. Spartz is the first naturalized American citizen from Ukraine to be elected to the U.S. Congress.  Yesterday, prior to President Biden’s State of the Union Address, Rep. Spartz gave an emotional speech to her Republican Party colleagues.    

Rep. Spartz was elected in 2020.   Since then, I have been following Rep. Spartz on Twitter.   Over the last several months Rep. Spartz has become increasingly involved in Ukraine matters, meeting with Pres. Zelenskyy when he was in the U.S. last year, and recently traveling to Ukraine with a Congressional delegation.  

I wasn’t always this way.  Early last year I was contacted by former Member of the Ukrainian Parliament, who was in Washington for meetings on Capitol Hill and with the Biden Administration.   I asked her if she was planning to meet with Rep. Spartz.   Her answer was, “Who’s that?”   I assume that that the Ukrainian Embassy was involved in the planning of her visit.   It seems this oversight has now been corrected.  

Rep. Spartz comes from a region of Ukraine called Chernigiv, not far from where Ukraine, Russia and Belarus meet.   Chernigiv contains a large number of old churches and monasteries, several centuries old.  They’ve survived a violent history.  As Rep. Spartz described, Chernigiv is now under heavy assault from Russian forces.

Edward Luttwak – Last night I participated in a Zoom call with noted military expert Edward Luttwak along with Vladislav Davidzon a Ukrainian journalist.   The call was organized by Tablet Magazine (https://www.tabletmag.com/).  I follow both Lutwak and Vlad on Twitter, and I know Vlad personally.   Here is some of what was discussed:

·       Mud – This time of year, before sowing begins, Ukrainian fields are extremely muddy, forcing Russian columns to stick to paved roads, making them easy targets for Ukrainian anti-tank rockets.  Apparently, the mud is forcing large Russian column north of Kyiv to advance 3 abreast along the highway (more on the column later), preventing ability to maneuver to avoid strikes by anti-tank missiles

·       Low Morale Among Russian Troops, Especially Draftees – Probably adding to the low morale is the fact that enlistment periods for many of the draftees ends on March 31st.  They are facing extension of their enlistment period, death or injury, or both.

·       Economic Sanctions – By themselves, economic sanctions won’t help stop the war, at least in the short term.  What could happen is the people around Putin, many with substantial interests in the West, could decide that Putin has become too much of a liability.   As Luttwak said, “it only takes one person to follow Putin into the Kremlin Men’s Room.

·       Nukes Not a Worry – Luttwak said that Russia has controls over its nuclear arsenal similar to what exists in the U.S.   The military won’t allow Putin, or those around him, to use nuclear weapons.

·       No Flattening of Kyiv or Kharkiv – Luttwak said that any order to destroy either city would be a “red line” for those around Putin.   He said that this was acceptable in the 2nd Chechen War, when Russia flattened Grozny, but for Kyiv or Kharkiv.

·       Cyber Attacks – Luttwak said he expects cyberattacks against the West to take place.  However, according to this very interesting article in the NY Times, we have better cyber defenses, and we are sharing with Ukraine.   This is probably one reason why in Ukraine the lights are still on.

·       Weapons Deliveries From NATO Countries – Luttwak said that they’re increasing, and Ukraine is able to distribute the weapons to frontline units within 24 hours after their arrival in Ukraine.

·       Pres. Zelenskyy – Both Luttwak and Davidzon agreed that Zelenskyy’s status has risen far above any other Ukrainian political leader, and that the 73% of Ukraine’s electorate who voted for Zelenskyy “got it right.”  Davidzon said that the U.S. had pressured Zelenskyy to establish a “War Cabinet,” including members of his Party and opposition parties.   Apparently, Zelenskyy declined.   Instead, his stature has risen so far above the other political leaders that he’s effectively established a unified leadership, without having to establish a war cabinet.

·       Effect of Television – Davidzon said that all the broadcast television stations, including stations owned by opposition figures, are now solidly behind the government.   NOTE: after the television tower was hit yesterday, the broadcast stations are all back in commission.  Davidzon said that the stations were referring to Russian troops, as “the horde,” using a Mongol word now incorporated into Russian.   When Ukrainians meet Russian troops, they are also referring to Russian as the horde.   He said that this must un-nerve Russian troops, who were told that they’d be greeted by garlands of flowers.  

·       Urban Tactics – Luttwak said that the urban tactics used by the Russians, sending tanks and APC’s into urban areas with no infantry support, is a recipe for disaster.  So far, that has proven to be the case.  Tanks are picked off, occupants of APC’s get out of their vehicles, and they are immediately hit by small arms fire and Molotov cocktails thrown by civilians.  Indeed, the Russians have still not taken any major urban areas in Ukraine. 

·       Collective Memory of Stalin – The current brutality displayed by Russia is like gasoline poured onto the embers of the collective memory of Stalin, including the famine.  The Russians are seen as destroying what Ukraine has built up over the last 30 years of independence.

·       Dead Russians – Luttwak thinks that the Russian body count that has been gathered by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is high but, at the same time, when the boys aren’t returning home will cause opposition to the war in Russia to build.

Luttwak believes Ukraine will win, eventually.   No one, not even Luttwak, is willing to predict how the war will end.   Always the optimist, I think it will end sooner rather than later.

The Russian Column – The 40-mile-long Russian column of tanks, APC’s and other vehicles has been effectively stranded outside of Kyiv for 2 – 3 days.  There have been problems with fuel, Russian soldiers punching holes in gas tanks, and other delays.  The question I am asking myself is why Ukraine doesn’t hit the column.   Ukraine has destroyed several Russian armored columns, primarily using aircraft and drone strikes.   Ukraine has recently taken delivery of additional Turkish drones.  Why not this column.  I have two theories:

1.      That Ukraine has concluded that the benefits of destroying the column with the resulting great loss of life to soldiers who might be ready to defect or surrender, aren’t worth the cost of infuriating Putin even further than he already is?

2.      That the column containing a relatively small number of infantry, 40,000 by Luttwak’s estimate, doesn’t constitute a threat to Kyiv.

Any thoughts?

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Meanwhile, the Covid debacle goes on. The CDC changed its mind about the seriousness of the disease. This is why people trust the CDC so much.  Political????

Here is a well researched article on the adverse effects of the vaccines.

Amazon no longer provides a list of all my reviews. I compiled something almost complete in 2018. I'll work on it today and post it.

That's the news from Lake WeBeGone, where stronger men are fighting to keep me free, the good looking women are also taking up arms, and the above average children are having a longer than average sleep, giving me time to get this blog out.

Graham