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Feb 25, 2022·edited Feb 25, 2022Author

9:45 – went for a walk with Eddie and Zoriana. The smaller of the mom-and-pop stores was open. It was quite a crowd, the two in front of us were buying their 100 g of vodka to start the day. That's what you do in a war. We bought onions, which we had neglected yesterday, the last of the milk, some soda pop and sweets.

We are hearing the deep rumble of occasional explosions in the distance. Also the sharper crack of artillery or antiaircraft, not whatsoever consistent. It sounds like sporadic resistance.

There are quite a few people walking on the streets. Relatively few cars, but our bus is running.

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I appreciate your writing Graham, and I send every good wish for you and your family's safety.

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Ukraine should align with neither. The US got us into a fight with Russia. Russia obliged. A pox on both of them. Ukraine can go it alone.

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3:00 PM. Bill Mauldin had a good discourse on the sounds of war in Up Front. Whistling, zinging, whooshing shells. It has been 50 years since I listened to same in Vietnam, but this is what I think I hear. I compared notes with Gary, a real combat vet from Vietnam.

As noted earlier, isolated, deep booms. Probably sappers blowing things up. Sharp reports, a bit higher pitch. Cannons or anti-aircraft. Just a few, this morning. Long, rumbling booms. Probably bombs, a long ways off and now a couple of hours ago.

It is quiet now. Oksana told me that the tanks are in Obolon, the fashionable north part of town on the west side of the river. The main drag is well suited to tank traffic - it is the route of the annual independence day parade. From there it is two or three miles to the center. No intervening bridges that could be blown. Little time to have laid anti-tank mines, and no soft ground to bury them. Resistance, if any, would probably be TOW missiles and the like. Bottom line: would not be surprised if the Russians were approaching the center about now.

Oksana says that Kadyrov, the ruthless Chechan leader, will spearhead the troops entering Kyiv. The thought sends fear through women and children. Though I cannot totally discount it, my sense is that Russia will do all it can to avoid civilian casualties for the sake of world opinion, and these soldiers will have better things to do than mess with civilians on the sidelines.

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Feb 25, 2022Liked by Graham Seibert

thanks for the updates. Whoever presides over the could use your advice. Seems our weaknesses probably helped set the time table for this move, although Putin seems on a path awaiting only such opportunities. the presence of tanks and quiet is a good sign. govern but not destroy.

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divisions over wide range of issues; cut back on energy which if produced could keep Europe off Russian supplies. and early faillure of new administration. timid approach to bully with real power, for example.

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not a question i have thought much about. My first thought is with whom are rhey most codependent? In this world, who gains or loses from what they produce? The EU is closer and no doubt a major trading region. China isn't next door but they are a major user of grains. After examining mutual interest, one might ask what is their power vis a vis Russia? Or the reverse, what is in the vital interest of Russia.

Given proximity, linguistic and historical connections and likely interest of Russia, ties with Russia seem logical. Then there is that yearning for freedom and security which might be best off with a more distant partner whose interest in the world being freer and with more open interaction ... and with considerably power when they can be enticed into action...

being of the freer, i would recommend the US BUT this may well antagonize ones dominate neighbor.

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I have seen nothing that would prompt the West to attack Russia. Putin senses danger I do not think are real. So it looks like a Russian initiative to protect against an imagine threat.

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a diversion from a tough political atmosphere at home might make this war a welcome relief, but a cause? I see no lasting gain for the US in this. As Graham notes below Ukraine would be best off without entanglements with either of three that I can see, China included. Russia achieved his goal of keeping Ukraine out of nato without incursion.

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9:00. Another 7 explosions in the distance, after a long lull. But Grandma and Grandpa just took a taxi home from the hospital where he got kidney dialysis. Stopped at the grocery store on the way home and came home loaded. Go figure.

Quiet evening at home playing dominos. Our babysitter is halfway to Poland. The stress got to her. That's it for today. More tomorrow.

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I can report the same quietness from the city center, all shops are closed and even our online steak shop will not deliver. Everybody we know, except you has run. We remain in our mostly empty building playing classical music. Sadly we don't know where to pick up our assigned weapons, and although the defense ministry has asked citizens to prepare Molotov cocktails, we don't have the Ingrediens so we are opting for Pisco Sours in our own brand of scorched earth policy to leave nothing for Ivan. Hope to see you Friday my good friend at our usual business round up. Wars come and go, music is forever

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Stay strong and head down.

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