Ukraine is saying the things that the West wants to hear. Ukraine wants to be part of NATO. We want to be part of the European Union. I hope it is just hot air for western consumption.
Russia's military has been coasting on their Soviet legacy for 30 years. You can see it in the obsolescence of the Soviet military machine, however much of it there might be. The Russian Federation will simply never have the wherewithal that the Soviet Union had to design and manufacture all of that material.
The conclusion of this war will have to bring as radical of a change in Russia as the defeats of Japan and Germany did for those countries. Whether or not Russia is actually defeated and occupied, which seems unlikely, they will have to have a turnabout. There is no place in the 21st century world for a 19th century power.
Russia cannot afford reparations, and it would be unwise probably for the West to force them. We should get ironclad guarantees that Russia will not rearm and no longer be belligerent. It seems quite plausible, given the fact that Russia simply will not have the industrial capacity to rearm up to world standards if they wanted to.
Given that, why should Ukraine join NATO? Only because that's what NATO wants to hear. NATO is an enormously inefficient organization, and Ukraine will be well to steer clear of it. Say the same for the European Union.
Many parties benefit from NATO participation in this war in Ukraine. They will not easily let go. We will not be abandoned.
Ukraine is a testing ground for all sorts of new Western technologies. Norway has sent an anti-drone machine gun type of apparatus that is able to detect, track and shoot down drones. The Swedish RBS 70 laser guided anti-aircraft system has recently given Ukraine success against Russian Ka52 alligator helicopters. Laser guidance is passive – there is no signal to be jammed – and not visible to the ‘copter before the anti-aircraft rocket is launched.
Ukraine is using American made high-accuracy artillery to devastating effect. Russia has been using cluster munitions since the beginning. The US had been reluctant to provide them. Now they are here, and backed up by our greater precision artillery. Russian infantry retreating on foot were recently routed.
We are acquiring more effective missiles, the HIMARS the Storm Shadow and so on. Ukraine's homemade seaborne drones have sunk several important ships and driven the Russian fleet away from Sevastopol. The generation that appeared in summer of 2023 is capable of threatening their shipping throughout the Azov Sea, up to Rostov on Don. Our drone aircraft are recently striking air bases deep in Russia.
Mike Ryan wrote an article on network integration, connecting sensors that detect a threat or just an enemy unit, software to geolocate it, an operator to make the decision and weapons to destroy it in a matter of a couple of minutes. This is the kind of software-driven system that Western arms makers have excelled at.
Modern military doctrine, combined arms, assumes air power. What's left of Ukraine's air force consists of inherited Soviet machines. We have used them sparingly. The F16s, when and if they arrive, should significantly change the balance of power. We may get Saab Gripens from Sweden. Ukraine is by now very familiar with Russia's air defense systems. Many have been destroyed, and our pilots are prepared with countermeasures when they are targeted by those that remain.
Weakened Russian air defense, and covering fire from F16s, could make it possible to deploy tank killers such as the A10 warthog airplane, of which the US has a substantial number in mothballs. The balance of power could shift quickly, and there is only one direction it can go. Russia does not have either organic capability or the allies capable of improving their warmaking capability.
Russia is learning, but they are handicapped by not having been working on this kind of technology as diligently for as long as the west. Their vaunted T-14 Armata tank is a no-show. Their 30-year-old T90s tanks seem no less vulnerable than the predecessor T72s. Russia has no new aircraft. Their Ka52 helicopters, only a couple of decades old, can be effective but are increasingly vulnerable to Ukrainian weaponry. Russia has no new ships.
Russia does not have access to western technologies, at least not as freely as everybody else. Sanctions hurt purchases, and there is not an ongoing cross-border flow of experts. The upshot is that Ukrainian weapons are getting better faster. Without legions of military contractors such as exist in the West Russia cannot hope to keep pace.
For these military contractors it is a matter of making hay while the sun shines. After Russia is subdued in this fighting, there will not be another such war. The only potential world-class enemy is China, which is much more cautious. It is not likely that NATO’s European partners would get involved even if they did start something.
Both Russia and Ukraine have reserves. Ukraine's is the vast store of military equipment, production capacity and know-how in the west, which, so long as the west maintains the will to continue its support, require only training and delivery. Although there will be ongoing quibbling, such support appears to be in the interest of the people, the politicians, and of course the deep-pocketed defense industry in the west.
Russia's principal reserve is people. Russia has always treated its citizens as cannon fodder. Most of the obvious cannon fodder seems to have been exploited. That would be the non-Slavic peoples from Siberia, and the inhabitants of Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea. They have already mobilized them, stripped those parts of the country bare. Not only that, but these conscripts don't make very willing soldiers.
Russia is making noises about mobilizing a million troops. It is not going to happen. From this point forward they will have to get into ethnic Slavs. That will be unpopular. But the major issue is that they simply have not had the wherewithal to adequately arm the people that they have sent to the war so far. They have been losing war machinery at a pretty good clip. They will not be able field new divisions even if they conscript the manpower. They have no good options.
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The almanac says that August is a bit cooler than July, but not this year. I computed that the July average high temperature was 1° below what the almanac said. My bet is that August will be above average. We have had about three days in the low 90s and we are forecast to have another one at the end of the week. That's fine with me, it's good beach weather. Let the kids complain about heat – we will survive.
Edward was complaining all last week about his stomach hurting. It bothers him frequently, so we didn't pay much attention. However, on Thursday he had a discolored stool and on Friday the discomfort was worse. Oksana took him to the doctor.
They thought that it might be appendicitis and held him overnight for observation. Saturday morning they decided that it was. They would operate.
A funny thing happened. They said that they could do the operation the traditional way with just a simple incision and it would be covered by the government health plan. On the other hand, they could do laparoscopic surgery, which would cost about $300. Without hesitation we said, "Do it." He will recover more quickly, and it will be marginally safer.
There was a missed communication. Oksana says the young doctor who performed the surgery appears very competent but has no bedside manner. Without talking to Oksana to reconfirm, he wheeled Eddie into the OR. Where he and the traditional incision.
Oksana was rightly distressed that he hadn't even asked her. She asked me repeatedly how we should handle it. To me it was water under the bridge. It was successful, it was over, and there was not much to do about it. Things happen.
I had expected Eddie to be in the hospital overnight. No, it's apparently at least a four day stay. It was two for Eddie's roommate who had laparoscopic surgery. They are asking Oksana to spend nights with Eddie. Tonight, Tuesday, will be the fourth.
All of this is free through Ukraine's socialized medicine. Oksana marvels at how nice the people are in the hospital. Although I do not believe in socialized medicine, for the time being it seems to work here. I expect that with millions of people having gone abroad for the war, they are happy to have patients to justify their budget.
They are not shy about asking for donations. I told Oksana we can afford it. Please donate the money we saved not having laparoscopic surgery.
I note this Guardian article about the British National Health Service. We read over and over that the NHS has been deteriorating for years. It makes sense that there would be private health care providers in Britain. Yes, there are.
Apparently a sixth or more of healthcare delivered in England in Britain is done outside of the NHS. It is not only for people who have the money to pay for it, but people who have needs that cannot wait. The headline story was about a guy who needed a tooth extracted and he would've had to wait three years for the national health to do it.
Denny and my friend Dan Bryant died about a decade ago of interstitial lung disease. He had to wait so long for an appointment with the Canadian health service that the condition was inoperable by the time they saw it.
This makes me appreciate that although socialism is not a good idea, and always falls apart in the long run, we are still a little way from the long run here in Ukraine. I expect that one reason for that is that the there is a private/public mix already in effect in effect, such as this offer that we had to do it do the arthroscopic surgery. I don't know what the financial arrangements would have been. My guess is that Eddie's operation would've been done on a for-profit basis by somebody moonlighting outside the system.
I don't go to the polyclinics, paying cash for my health care. I don't like waiting in line, and the costs are reasonable. Oksana makes the decisions on a case-by-case basis for herself and the children. It's about 50-50. She knows where to go.
One of you readers recently claimed that the vaccines could be credited with having improved our public health. Though I couldn't put my hand on my sources, I recalled that in general disease went down dramatically decades before vaccines were available for such things as polio, measles and such. It was a matter of improved water, sewage and clean streets. Today I found this link about the fudging that goes on in clinical trials – see my review of Turtles All the Way down. It includes links to articles describing the adverse effects brought on by the smallpox, anthrax and HPV vaccine trials and vaccines. And now RSV, a disease I had never heard of. They have been working for decades to develop a vaccine. I am not convinced they can immunize you, but they do seem to have approval to sell you something. Stand by!
My objective in pointing these things out is not to convince you that I am always right, but rather to make you skeptical of anybody or any organization that purports to be always right. Disinformation is everywhere, including official sources. You have to be a skeptic. And scream loudly when they want to shut down “disinformation.” By my reckoning it has greatly outperformed official information over the past three years.
That's the news from Lake WeBeGone, where we are cruising into the new school year. It's a beautiful day, slightly breezy, temperature right around 80.
Beware of Blackrock. Zelensky has invited them to join the party, and they will invade Ukraine after the war in order to suck the life blood out of what is left of the country. I fear the EU and the US, which will want favors for their help, as in sweetheart deals to rape and pillage after the hostilities.
As to the NHS and the Canadian system, the governments in both countries are attempting to discourage people away from Socialized health care so that they can privatize it and their buddies in Big Pharma can cash in. Turdo in Canada is trying to alter Canada so that it can become a WEF state, so that Canadians will not have guns, cars, nationalized health care, or free and open media. Then, the next step is You vill own noting and you vill be happy. Turdo is a special buddy of Klaus Schwab and the Deputy Prime Minister, Chrysita Feedland, sits on the WEF Board of Directors. She denouncied Democratic Capitalism in a speech last week.
My experience in Ukraine was that the system is bullshit. Those doctors don't know anything but pretend that they do. I once took my daughter to the doctor who got it all wrong, and I had to convince her mother to take her to a private clinic where they managed to get it right. My knowledge of medicine saved my daughter from going through a whole series of treatments which would have been worthless but harmful at the same time.
I have no confidence at all in the Ukrainian medical system, if it is a system at all, and not just a hodge podge of old Soviet habits and ideas.
The truth is that you can't trust any of those bastards. They're all crooks looking to cash in on somebody's ill health. Health care is an oxymoron. It uses health to rip off the patients.
Hello, Graham,
I'm glad your son is recovering from his operation. And I have to say I am of the same mind when you write, " It was successful, it was over, and there was not much to do about it. Things happen." Just move on.
This may be a trivial matter, but about the A-10, which seems to be the object of much enthusiasm on the part of non-combat fliers, I suppose because of its big gun, which excites them, that airplane is obsolete and has been since the introduction of Precision Guided Munitions. The role of the "mud mover" as that type of Close Air Support asset is called can now be performed by any aircraft equipped with PGMs with no need to descend into the range of MANPADS, let alone small arms fire. When A-10s were deployed during the Iraq wars, as soon as the MANPADS began operating against them, they went right upstairs and used PGMs. The gun was just useless weight.
Sorry to drone on about this, but it's something of a family specialty. One of my grandfathers served under General George Kenney of the Fifth Air Force flying P-40Es in New Guinea during the Pacific War. Kenney is famous for asserting, "In this theater, the artillery flies!" and he was a pioneer in developing air support for troops in close combat with the enemy. Techniques he developed there were adopted and improved on by General Pete Quesada, commanding the Ninth Air Force in North Africa and Europe. Quesada later became the first commander of the Tactical Air Command.
My grandfather was again serving with the Fifth Air Force, in Japan, when the Korean War broke out and flew close air support missions flying B-26Bs as well as serving as a Forward Air Controller on the ground during the retreat to Hungnam and the evacuation.
Well, anyway, blah, blah, whatever. Please stay safe, so we can keep reading your posts!
PS: Here's a video of an F-16 far above the fighting planting a JDAM 75 meters in front of a marine unit, wiping out a Taliban position. That's modern-day CAS.
https://youtu.be/k42t9IRpaAE