War sputters on... to where? Springtime sunshine.

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I'm dictating this from my back yard. This is a lockdown day. We are not allowed to leave our property. That means that people are confined to apartments or whatever they have. We are lucky to have some land - a third of an acre, within the city limits of Kyiv but almost a mile from any high-rises.  I'm out with the three kids and we're getting some spring sunshine.

Today's forecast is only about 38°. Yesterday it went up to 52°. There are signs of spring. We have been hearing the birds for about three weeks. Two days ago we saw the crocus. Crocus is a big deal. The first flowers of spring, poking their purple heads-up, sometimes through the snow.

We have heard a few isolated missile strikes, a couple of them sounding like they came from Kyiv. As I write this, I'm hearing distant thuds, probably 15 or 20 miles away. It is, however, nothing like it was yesterday.

This underscores what Bob Homans has been saying. The Russians are simply mounting a chaotic, undisciplined attack. Start with those missiles. They are accurate enough to hit a large building, nothing much smaller. They are targeting civilian housing, causing quite a few casualties.

Guided missiles are expensive. Somebody estimated half a million apiece. Many commentators have said that Russia has a limited supply of them and cannot get more. We have been waiting two weeks for them to run out - obviously not yet.

I hear what might be bombing in the distance to the east. The Russians are said to have the ability to use strategic bombers at high-altitude, beyond what Ukrainian air defense can reach.

To repeat something I've written many times before, the fact that the missiles and perhaps bombs are the only thing we hear means that the Russians are not achieving their objective of getting within artillery range of the city of Kyiv. They are not establishing fire bases.

Bombing did not succeed when Hitler targeted London, or the United States as it threatened to bomb Vietnam back into the Stone Age. And the US could afford it.  Bombs can cause a lot of grief, but it takes troops on the ground to occupy land.

Russia using bombers against which Ukraine has no defense invites a next stage of escalation, the establishment of a no-fly zone enforced by the NATO powers. Short of that would be to bring in high-altitude anti-aircraft missiles such as the Russian Buk missile system that brought down the Malaysian airliner in 2014. I do not know why, since Russia has exported them to several other countries, they are not finding their way back into Ukraine for use in this war. Perhaps they are, and it is simply unreported. It may explain why we have not seen more bombing.

Russia has supposedly asked for smart munitions from China. It sounds to me as if the Chinese are slow rolling Russia. Not saying no, but they may well be in no hurry to deliver. This would be a classic Chinese ploy.  This war can't help China's image.

I hear a train on the tracks a little more than half a mile from our house. Trains operating means a couple of things. First of all, they are not worried about aerial attacks. In the almost 3 weeks of war, we have not seen an aerial attack here in Kyiv. More than that, it means that the bridges are still intact. Without bridges over the river and the major arterials the trains would have no place to go.

Bob Homans has noted that the mainstream media in the United States is not reading the tea leaves that are so obvious to him. The signs of Russian desperation. Let me name just a few.

Russia is dismissing prisoners of war from the Army. Taking no responsibility for them, which would mean no pensions and no veterans benefits. These people will be on their own.  Their families without income.

Russia has said that soldiers who are deserting or want to surrender will be shot. This is a Russian tactic going back to Stalingrad and presumably to czarist times. It's an indication of the traditional Russian attitude that the soldiers are expendable. Russian soldiers were formerly peasants – people who were absolute slaves until 1861, three years before Lincoln freed slaves in America.

Russia has always had a disregard for its own people. The Russian war dead in World War II numbered between 20 and 26 million, far more than even the Germans and Japanese.  The American lend lease program provided tanks, aircraft, and other weaponry to Russia in order to allow their soldiers to fight and die more effectively against the Axis.  Only the sheer mass of Russian humanity overwhelmed the Germans.

There are anecdotes such as one about a soldier who was chained to a tree so he could not leave his watch post. Ukrainians found his frozen body. That fearsome 40-mile-long column of two weeks ago has disappeared into the woods. It is no longer a fighting force. Presumably the soldiers are scrounging for food and out of gas, freezing, and will not be effective as a fighting force.

General Shoygu, the Russian minister of defense, has told Russian soldiers that it is okay to steal provisions from and shoot civilians.   This sign of desperation will certainly harden world opinion against them.

Russians have a long-standing reputation as the brutal descendants of the Mongol horde.  This war is reconfirming it. The gloves came off the iron fist when it became clear after only three days that this invasion was a blunder.

Another symptom of the terror that Russians like to inspire is their use of foreign troops. In the past it was the Cossacks – wild men from Ukraine and the Don region of Russia. Putin still has them, but instead you hear about the Chechens.

Putin oversaw two Chechen wars, which like this one were fought by brute force, little finesse and large losses of life.   However, since Chechnya was a part of Russia, and Muslim at that, the West really did not care too much.  The brutality went more or less unnoted.

There are two groups of Chechens. Many still vastly resent Russia for the destruction of Grozny, but there are also the Kadyrov Chechen soldiers that Putin uses to instill terror elsewhere. Ukrainians are gratified that they were cut to pieces in Sumy and elsewhere and are no longer a menace. Putin is threatening to use battle hardened Syrians for urban warfare. My guess is that once again the threat is a good deal more terrifying than the reality. Ukrainian cities are different than those of Syria, and these troops will be out of their element.  Moreover, the poorly paid Russian conscripts will resent fighting alongside, and teaching, the highly paid mercenaries.

The regime is lying to the soldiers who are tasked with implementing its brutality.  Russian military morale has to be rock bottom. 

Russia has long had a reputation for lying and going back on its word. They worked for 30 years refurbishing it to make them appear reliable business partners. Many companies entered Russia in that belief. They will remember this display of brutality and perfidy for a long time. Western companies are sure to come back to exploit Russian natural resources, but they are unlikely to put a lot of faith in Russian promises. Things like Northstream and so on will be undertaken very cautiously, which will not benefit the Russian people.

Streamfortyseven, who always has useful notes, posts this wonderful piece on urban warfare today. It describes the difficulties that the Russians are experiencing now in taking the cities that are quite close to the Russian border, namely Mariupol and Kharkiv, and that they will certainly face if they are ever able even to enter Kyiv. Russian soldiers have little appetite for fight already. They will have even less when they mix it up in urban warfare. The few troops who did get into Kyiv in the first days of the war have been totally destroyed.

One has to suppose that word gets around through the Russian military. Actually, because Russian battlefield communications have been so inept, Russian soldiers have been using cell phones. They talk to each other.  Intercepted calls have shared stories of the horrors.

Russia's population is 144 million, something over three times Ukraine's 40 million. However, Ukraine has the advantages of Western armament, and the fact that it is fighting a defensive as opposed to an offense war. Ukraine is fighting for its homeland. Morale here is high so far as I can see.

The markets went on a roller coaster yesterday as it looked like Putin might be on the edge of an agreement and then did not reach one, blaming Zelensky's intransigence.

We in Ukraine have been witness to Putin's style of negotiation in many areas over the years. The unsuccessful negotiations to end the war and Donbas would be one. Prior to that, we saw him play the gas card to threaten Europe with a cold winter. 2009 was indeed cold as Russia shut off gas. The tragic difference may be that this time Putin's fearful advisors shield him so well from the truth that he does not recognize a good deal when he is presented one.

Among the other anomalies of this war is the fact that refugees continue to be able to reach Poland along the M06 highway going to Chop on the Hungarian border. Also, trains carrying refugees are able to exit Kyiv through L'viv and continue on to the border. Kyiv is not isolated. If these routes are still open, presumably it is possible to bring additional arms such as anti-aircraft missiles.

Another anomaly is that American Edward Slavsquat is still able to blog from Russia.  His topic of today, the nasty vaccines, is only somewhat connected.  The corruption in Russian pharma is just as bad as in the West.

That's the news from Lake WeBeGone, where the strong man enjoyed a morning of sunshine in the yard with three children, the good-looking woman got her beauty sleep, and Grandma put together a wonderful tort for lunch.