War is a very local thing. We have no car, and public transit being out I have depended on my bicycle for transportation for this last month. The red oval on this map outlines the extent of my travels. I get out about three times a week, and walk just about every day with the children.
As I have written, we have been hearing explosions daily since the beginning. My guess is that the sound reaches us from just about the edges of this diagram. You have read about and seen horrifying photographs from Hostamel, Bucha, Irpin, Brovary and Skybyn. There has been damage in the city of Kyiv itself. The Retroville Center was destroyed. Other shopping centers have been damaged. Apartment buildings, mostly on the right bank, have been hit by missiles.
You, and especially those who are thinking about returning to Kyiv, should know something about the situation here in my small ambit. First of all, there are many things that I have not seen:
· Tanks or armored vehicles, either Ukrainian or Russian.
· Warplanes. I heard them about twice.
· Anything damaged by bombs, missiles, mortars or artillery, or small arms.
· Evidence of small arms: spent bullets or cartridges.
We have not lost electricity or Internet. The garbage is still being collected, though not as regularly. We can still get repairman. Oksana's parents can still get appointments for his kidney dialysis.
So how do we know that there is a war going on? Here are things we have witnessed:
· Checkpoints at major intersections manned by armed militiamen
· Barricades on major roads to slow down cars and prevent the passage of tanks
· Cessation of bus, jitney, metro, electric railway and other forms of transportation
· Closure of just about all businesses except for a few drug stores and grocery stores
· Curfews, 35 hours long, to enable militia to sweep the city of spies and saboteurs
· Stockouts of Coca-Cola, beef, bananas, sugar and other common items.
About half the people in our neighborhood, including most with children, are gone. The greatest numbers are in Western Ukraine, Poland and Moldova. Not a few have gone to Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, Great Britain, and even the United States. The streets and playgrounds have been empty, especially of other children.
Putin said that he is easing up on Kyiv for humanitarian reasons. There is not a humanitarian bone in that man's body, but even in his own cruel way of thinking it probably makes sense. The Russians did not have the strength to conquer Kyiv. Had they done so, they certainly would not have had the strength to hold it.
Even Putin must now realize that turning Kyivlyans into Moskals would be an impossible task. The territorial objectives that have been outlined by Putin, Alexander Dugin and others focused first on eastern Ukraine. Easing up on Kyiv will free up Russian soldiers to fight in the east. If they can get there. If Putin is to win anything in this war, it appears it will be the Mariupol to Kherson corridor. Even holding that, in the face of a very hostile citizenry and negative world opinion, would seem quite difficult. But if not that, Putin will have nothing to show for this monumental blunder.
Whatever the case, most of Kyiv is relatively undamaged and it appears increasingly likely to be safe. Business is starting to get back to normal. Taxi service has never stopped. If I needed to go someplace in town I could take my bicycle on the elektrishka, which is now free and running all day, and pedal easily from the main train station or Pochaina.
It is time for refugees to start to trickle back in from the west and to bring the city back to life.
I have mentioned that from Monday through Wednesday we heard the much more regular booms of what I assumed was outbound artillery. The last two days it came from the direction of Irpin. Wednesday I heard it from Brovary as well. I read that it was retreating Russians shelling the hell out of the hamlets they were leaving – Irpin, Bucha and Hostamel. Mainly just inflicting pain – not much military objective to destroying civilian infrastructure. I like to imagine the Russians folding like an accordion, as they are pushed from the south and can't get out of their own way retreating to the north.
Lest it seem like a contradiction, let me add that the noise was no more threatening than it has been all month, and from what I read it is Ukrainians pressuring Russians rather than the other way around. People returning now may be able to tell their grandchildren that they actually heard a little bit of the war.
I misjudged the Russians' duplicity and stupidity. First off, I did not think they would invade. Part of the problem was that I have learned to so distrust my own government that I discounted statements issuing from them. Major institutions of our government have been demonizing the Russians for the best part of the past decade for domestic political purposes.
The evil within our own government was visible. The Russian evil had been on display as well, in the Donbass in Crimea, but in the contest of lies Russia’s did not seem to be the strongest.
The Epoch Times has an article today on exactly that topic. The erosion of trust. Although their piece focuses on trust in government with regard to medical issues, it applies across the board. We have been lied to about Hunter Biden's laptop, and all of his nefarious connections within Ukraine, China and elsewhere. It is clear to everybody that the people at the apex of the American power structure do not put the American people's interests first. At best they use their positions to enrich themselves. At worst they actively serve the interests of foreign governments.
At any rate we should not, and we do not, trust them. Even when upon occasion they are not lying.
I remember Bruce Willis mainly as a smart mouthed character on some TV show in the 80s. I had not read that he announced an end to his career on account of aphasia. Steve Kirsch called it to my attention in this post in which he claims that the problem materialized after Willis accepted the Covid jab.
Kirsch asks whether there is a connection between Willis' aphasia and the injection. Nobody will talk about it. Kirsch put together statistics showing that aphasia has appeared many times more frequently in the adverse events database since the rollout of the Covid shots. He asks the reasonable question – did it happen in this case? The fact that nobody will raise the question is itself news.
Bruce Willis with aphasia is like Hugh Hefner with ED. A fate worse than death.
A few months ago, a friend a few years older than me died while shoveling snow. The story is that he just fell over and the blow to his head killed him. In a simpler time I would have accepted that explanation without question. But this is not a simple time.
Oksana is deeply troubled by reports of Russian atrocities. Gang rapes, mutilations and such. These war crimes are indeed despicable. But on the other hand, the crimes against children in the United States are equally damaging and are not only not condemned, but seem to be encouraged by the government. I'll take my chances here.
The whole family spent yesterday afternoon in the garden with a true-to-life 1812 overture playing in the background. I was trying (and largely failing) to infer some meaning to the noise. The women worked consistently, with fairly regular intermissions to sort out differences of opinion as to how it ought to be done. Eddie was asking me about the ruckus, primarily deep booms (artillery), a swooshing sound (multiple rockets – the Grad system?), and long rumbles (rockets landing? bombs?). Zoriana was proud that she had climbed clear to the top of the apple tree, from which she could supervise the whole operation.
And today we are blessed with silence. Have the Russians finally made their promised retreat from Kyiv? It seems too good to be true.
That's the news from Lake WeBeGone, where the men are strong, the women are good looking, and the children above average.
If the Russians really are pulling back from Kyiv then this will go down in history as a remarkable and great defensive victory. I just hope that the Ukrainian forces can exploit this and push back hard. A retreat under pressure is very difficult. With determined attacks, it could become a rout.
Especially appreciate the map outlining your travels during this war. Gives a good idea of just where you live in relation to downtown Kyiv and how much area you need to cover to get the everyday essentials. Keep up the good work.