The assault on Donbas has begun.
20220419
Calling it Putin's plan B would be a stretch. He needed a plan B on February 27 and did not have one. He has been making it up ever since.
The passage of time affects both Ukraine and Russia. It seems to be on the side of Ukraine:
· Armaments are now pouring in from the United States and NATO
. Ukrainians are being trained in the use of the new arms
· Russia's army has been in the field a long time and is exhausted. Morale has been low.
· Russia's replacement troops are untrained and untested
· Rains will decrease In a month or so, favoring the use of Russia's armor.
· Putin had declared May 9, the anniversary of the victory over Germany, as his goal for victory.
On March 7, as Russia's assault on Kyiv appeared stalled, I quoted the Chinese proverb that he who rides on the back of a tiger has a hard time getting off. This war is a disaster for Russia in the world, but giving up now would be a personal disaster for Putin. As long as he has the power he has to keep on pushing. It is a classic Greek tragedy.
Ukraine likewise has to stick with this to the end. Unless we have a decisive victory, Russia will be back.
For all of the sound and fury of the assault, the odds would seem to favor Ukraine. Defense is always stronger than offense. Many of the attacking units are understrength, having been sorely depleted by the fighting around Kyiv. They are not well-trained or cohesive – they include a lot of replacements, among them a large contingent of new recruits. They may be somewhat low on munitions. Some claim that with the sinking of the Moskva they have lost a measure of air defense in the southern sector. The Ukrainian defenders have surely received some shipments of javelin, panzerfaust, switchblade and NLAW antitank weapons. They may have received NATO artillery as well, some of which has a significantly longer range than Russian artillery and grad systems.
I am looking forward to Bob Homans' reports. War is always full of surprises. The Russians will certainly gain a few victories. My bottom line, however, would be that this is a Hail Mary pass on Putin's part. I do not expect that the Russian soldiers being sent into this meatgrinder are very enthusiastic about it.
Eddie and I just finished reading of Roald Dahl's miraculous escape from another military blunder, Britain's ill-advised defense of Greece in 1941. I'll be on the edge of my seat, waiting for the Sitrep from Donbas.
That's the news from lake WeBeGone, where strong men, good looking women and curious and concerned children alike will bow our heads as we say grace, with a prayer for our country, just after this is posted.
After two years of covid we in the West know for certain sure that our govts are dyed in the wool liars and would do anything rather than tell the truth.
We also know that the first casualty of war is always truth.
We also know Eisenhower's (was it?) ' military industrial complex' certainly did, does and will continue to direct US and therefore all Western policies to the exclusion of all common sense, reason and concern for people or even the nation.
We know we attacked and destroyed three nations completely without just reason.
We know we are deeply complicit in the Yemen tragedy and continuing massive war crime and we the people have virtually no say whatever.
We know our governments treat us with contempt and are running up debts that will cripple us for generations - i.e. Australia ran up half a trillion dollars in the last two years to bring us to 1 trillion dollars of debt. Nearly half our GDP.
The contempt extends to such as justifying debt levels by saying that all the other countries are doing the same or worse - i.e. 'don't complain about being hurt and mismanaged - every people are being hurt/mismanaged, some even more than you.
We know that ease and comfort, riches, makes for fat and greedy, unrealistic and unfit and that is us.
We know that deprivation, hard times, struggle makes for lean and hard and realistic and that is not us but we know where such people/countries are.
Given all that - and, of course, there's much more - we find such articles as this well worth sober consideration:
https://www.takimag.com/article/the-reality-gap/?fbclid=IwAR34ZbV5taLUL4BK0aE0RiytVb_SvKCTLEBg5qAszgfKHV7KgNtl4dHthj8
Let us hope that Putin doesn't do something really stupid - like tactical nuclear weapons. The danger is there but someday somewhere, a foolish blunder could cause awful things. I do hope that behind the scenes strong warnings are being made.