Denys Davidov provides an after-action analysis of the huge rocket attack two nights ago. Ukraine claims to have knocked down all six "hypersonic" kinzhal missiles that were sent its direction. Russia claims to have knocked out the patriot air defense system.
It appears that the patriot system was the primary target of all of the attacking kinzhal missiles. The Russians perhaps hoped to be able to overwhelm it by sheer numbers. They may have succeeded somewhat – Denys shows what appears to be an explosion at the location of the patriot system.
We learn a little bit more about how it is set up. Patriot is indeed a system, consisting of "four major operational functions: communications, command and control, radar surveillance, and missile guidance". The radars are almost certainly spread out in different locations from which they can communicate their findings, probably using triangulation to determine the speed and direction of the incoming missiles. If the Russians knocked something out, it was certainly less than the whole system.
The hardware is expensive on both sides. Russia has a limited number, and limited production capacity for kinzhals. On the other hand, the patriot system, and even the missiles themselves cost millions of dollars each. This could be a question of who has the deeper pockets.
The United States obviously has an interest in figuring out how well the patriot system works in a true wartime situation against the most advanced Russian threats. That's what it was designed for. The United States is obviously getting some return on its money and shaking down the system in actual combat.
After publishing this, I find an article that does a good job of fleshing out my intuitions.
The Russian interest would appear to be in proving to their military hardware customers that the kinzhal is a worthy weapon, as well as learning how to overcome missile defense systems. Their problem is that they have a limited inventory, though not as limited as was being advertised last year, a limited production capacity, and probably supply constraints on imported components for the kinzhal. Using six at one go seems extravagant.
Does it make sense to attack well-defended Kyiv? They will never be able to conquer the city – that opportunity vanished last year. There are not major defense production facilities that would justify the expense of an attack. There are no longer major troop concentrations that could cause large numbers of casualties. Expending all of this resource attacking well-defended Kyiv does not further Russia's military objectives.
My guess is that the United States will see to it that the patriot system is back in operation shortly. There will no doubt be some adjustments to the strategy of defending the system against such attacks. Though Russia may try again to knock it out, it seems to me to be a fool's errand. They will run out of kinzhals before the United States runs out of money.
On a side note, when a kinzhal hit outside of Lviv a month or so ago the Russians made an unsubstantiated claim to have destroyed an underground bunker killing a large congregation of senior Ukrainian and NATO officers. The claim was that the bunker was 30 meters underground. I did a little bit of research.
The United States arsenal includes bunker buster bombs, the most notable of which was the ten-ton Mother of All Bombs, GBU-43, used in Afghanistan. With 9 tons of high explosives, it is an upgrade of the 2-ton GBU-28 used in the Iraq war. These things carry more high explosives, and are designed specifically to penetrate the earth before blowing up. My guess is that the kinzhal, designed to deliver a nuclear warhead but now fitted with only 1/2-ton conventional warhead, would have a hard time taking out a well-built bunker that deep in the ground.
All of this only reinforces my conclusion that the Russian don't really know what they're doing. They are throwing everything they have at us, but not in a systematic way that is likely to lead to fulfilling their war objective of hanging onto the territory that they now occupy by military means or pushing Ukraine into negotiations that would yield that result.
In a comedy of errors, I attempted to install a VPN this week. Now that I have learned how to do shopping in the United States and get stuff shipped here to Ukraine, I wanted to look for some clothing. Most of the big retailers wouldn't let me access their sites, saying they could not sell to my overseas location.
A VPN supposedly masks your physical location, redirecting your communications from servers scattered around the world. This masking makes you uninteresting to advertisers, since they don't know where you are.
I answered in the affirmative when my credit card company asked if the charge was valid. I then tried to install the VPN. It never worked. I had a very unsatisfactory back-and-forth with the artificial intelligence of a supposed customer support site. After four rounds they finally asked how I had paid for it. Lo and behold, the transaction had not gone through!
Now, having evidence of their absolute lack of customer support, I think I'm going to forget the whole thing. Amazon allows me to log on, and they will ship to the Meest Express consolidation point in New Jersey. It may be a less than optimal solution with regard to price and selection, but at least I know how to do it.
I completed the remake of my movie "Blame Evolution for Our Distress." It is a proof-of-concept exercise. I have posted the video on Rumble with an endnote referencing the script on my web site. The script keys out to the video, using the same headers and subheads. It includes hyperlinks to book reviews and other supporting materials.
The movie is out of focus. Call it soft focus, flattering my aging hide. I had hoped to shoot it out of doors, but I have a cold and it was a rainy day. It is better than the previous version of the same video, and I expect I'll do it again sometime. But good enough for now.
In the next couple of days, I hope to give more or less the same treatment to a related video entitled The Ultimate Self-Replicator, applying what I learned doing this one. The two videos approach the subject of evolution from somewhat different angles, and I will be considering how to combine them.
Oksana did something to her thumb yesterday. It is swollen. She always asks, then just as certainly rejects my advice in favor of going to a real doctor. In this instance my advice is that the best she can do is to soak it in Epson salts and then wrap it with a splint so she doesn't injure it further. She wants to get an x-ray, on the theory that it might deteriorate if she doesn't treat it immediately. My response is that there is more risk in taking it to and from the doctor than there would be staying home and treating it tenderly.
The news from Lake WeBeGone is that Oksana is off to the doctor for at least three hours. Her mother is entertaining Marianna. Eddie is studying. Though I'm still coughing and my voice sounds rough, I'm feeling good enough to go shopping. I am off.
What's a doctor able to do for your wife's thumb? They have two basic treatments, surgery or drugs. That's it. Lots of times they can look at an X-ray or an MRI and deduce that there is damage but how do they mitigate that damage? They can't. Maybe she could get a cortisone shot, but that's more deadly than a swollen thumb.
It is possible that she poked it and has an infection. Is it red and swollen? Is it hot? If so, it is an infection, so it can be treated if it's necessary. The best thing to do is wait and day or two to see how it evolves. If it gets worse, it's time to see a professional, but not a doctor.
Yes i know that frustration Graham, you have my synpathy. My response eventually: 'What am I, a doctor?' and return to whatever i was doing.