Robert Homans 3/6. Preparations. Casting blame.

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There is a reason the father is the head of the household. I'm becoming more of an autocrat as the war gets closer.:

o   No, we so not need to worry about feeding the baby oatmeal with salt in it.
o   Yes, we are going to keep the bathtubs full so we have water to wash with.
o   No, we are not going to burn trash. We might need paper to start fires
o   We will cut firewood while it is still safe out-of-doors.
o   Yes, we are going to boil eggs while we still have power. Raw eggs would be difficult to deal with without electricity.
o   No, we do not need to wash the eggs before we put them in water to boil.
o   We will save the dry stuff – oatmeal and the like – and eat the fresh stuff that would not keep.
o   As long as it is freezing outside we will use the out-of-doors as a freezer.
o   We will finish filling the sandbags. Odds are they will wind up as a playhouse for the kids, but you never know.

Somebody needs to make the decisions. That is me. I do it in a tone of voice that doesn't invite argument, and I'm getting less and less. I am sure I have not thought of everything, but I seem to be doing most of the thinking to anticipate what might happen.

There is the rumble of bombs in the distance.  Fighting yesterday in Irpen, 15 miles NW of town.  Since the main part of the city is on the right bank, separated from us by almost a mile of river, my guess is that the invasion routes will be from that quadrant, the northwest, from the west and the south.  Artillery could set up on the left bank and shoot over our heads at the city.  It would not target military objectives but civilians.  Our greatest danger would seem to be misdirected counterfire.

American conservatives (viz, Paul Craig Roberts) are becoming unhinged to the point of almost rooting for Putin, such is their detestation of the Administration that so provoked Russia.  Wrong – there is blame to share.  Both sides need to be cool and look for a path to peace.

I'm including Bob Homans contacts.  Please ask him directly to include you in his distribution.

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Ukraine – 3/6 Sitrep
No-Fly Zone
Coverage by U.S. Media
Experience Gained From the Revolution of Dignity
Review – Where I Think We Are
How to Help

A New Source  - This is an additional report from an old friend of mine, a Ukrainian, who was an officer in the Soviet Army.  He then went to work in Moscow for an American private equity firm, after which he retired to Kyiv.   Since the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, through today, he has made significant contributions to the Ukrainian Army, both in cash and in kind, including night vision equipment and body armor.   The content of his report, although short, is significant in terms of the problems faced by the Russian army in surrounding Kyiv.

Here is what he said, as of March 5th, (my commentary in bold face):

Once again about my house in Berezivka. For whatever reason (Berezivka does not present any military value) the Russians have chosen a well-known restaurant "Bistro Pekarya" on the highway between Kyiv and Chop as their local HQ. Berezivka is a village around 40km. west of Kyiv, on the Kyiv-Chop Highway.  Chop is a major border crossing between Ukraine and Slovakia, at least an 8-hour drive from Kyiv in normal times. 

The Russians probably belong to a BTG that was partially destroyed and is now stuck between a liberated Makariv (to the West) and a blown-up bridge in Stoyanka on the outskirts of Kyiv. According to the local territorial defense, they are moving rather chaotically back and forth along this isolated part of the highway. Today several tanks reached a destroyed bridge and started shooting at some mysterious targets across the Irpen River.  The Irpin River flows north and south to the west of Kyiv. I assume the Ukrainians have blown the bridge that crosses the Irpin River, and is located on the main highway between Kyiv and Chop.  I believe that this is the same bridge that has been on yesterday’s news broadcasts in the U.S., showing civilians leaving the town of Irpin, crossing the destroyed bridge, and seeking refuge in Kyiv.  In addition, Kyiv’s commuter railway system, connecting Kyiv with northern and western suburbs including Irpin, has largely been destroyed.  Later, apparently satisfied with the results of their shooting, they backed away and disappeared. The locals are mystified by this BTG's actions.

Based on my friend’s description, it seems that this column is trapped.  They cannot go either west or north, lest they meet Ukrainian armed forces now holding Makariv, or east toward Kyiv because of the blown bridge.

                 Their command has flatly refused to let out women and children from Berezivka, even though there is no electricity and gas in the village. They are probably scared shitless by the previous partial annihilation that they had to endure there and need a human shield to protect them from the Ukrainian artillery and aviation. Ironically, when they have their morning tea at their HQ at "Bistro Pekarya", they inevitably enjoy the view of the carcasses of their own burned-out trucks and APVs. They have overstayed their welcome, and everybody waits impatiently when they run out of diesel and either surrender or get the fuck out.

                 My house (700 m or so from their HQ) has survived so far, but I still prefer to keep it as a loss on my books.

From what my friend describes here, the Kyiv-Chop Highway is now blocked.  The Russians cannot use it.   To surround Kyiv, the Russians would have to bring significant forces from the north, through Makariv, and cross the highway and continue south.  According to my friend, Makariv is now in Ukrainian hands.

The partly destroyed Russian column my friend describes is by no means unique.   There is also the 40-mile-long Russian column that is stuck around 18 km. northwest of Kyiv.   This column was also stopped by a blown bridge, aided by Ukrainian territorial defense forces hitting the vehicles both in front and in the rear of the column.  They cannot go off the road, as they’ll get stuck in the mud.  Apparently, there are around 40,000 soldiers in the column.  They were only given 3 days of rations.  The prospect that the Russian Army can surround Kyiv seems to become dimmer by the day.  

From reports I’ve seen; Russia has now committed all the forces it brought to the border of Ukraine prior to invading.   If this is the case, it is hard to see where additional Russian forces are going to come from, that are required to free up trapped columns and to continue to try to surround Kyiv.

My regular “source” –

Nuclear Power Stations - Today as of 00:00 there are no casualties at the Enerhodar nuclear power station.  Russian invaders control the administrative buildings at Europe’a largest nuclear power plant while Ukraine’s Energoatom Ukraine’s government nuclear operator continues to run the plant.  It is not clear why the invaders fired on the plant.  If anything had happened, then they would have also been affected by radioactive fallout.  The International Atomic Energy Agency, and the rest of the world were shocked by this attack and a discussion is planned to create 30 km demilitarized zones around Ukraine’s nuclear plants.

In addition to attempting to disrupt or disable the Enerhodar Nuclear Power Station, Russians surrounded Chernobyl at the beginning of the invasion.  As of yesterday, Ukrainian staff at Chernobyl remain on site and continue monitoring the plant.  The invaders are not allowing Ukrainian staff to leave or for replacements to come in.  The third round of negotiations between the Russian invading government and the Ukrainian government scheduled for tomorrow will likely have nuclear plants on its agenda.

Evacuation Corridors - The second round of negotiations held on Friday led to a cease fire agreement for Mariupol and Volnovakha.  Both cities in Donetsk Oblast are surrounded and under constant shelling and bombardment.  The cease fire agreements were to create corridors for civilians to leave these cities.  On Saturday after the escape corridors were to open, shelling of Volnovakha continued.  No civilians were able to leave. 

The corridor in Mariupol opened for two hours on Saturday and approximately 10,000 civilians were able to leave on foot.  The corridor closed after Russia resumed shelling.  The agreement was for six hours of cease fire.    There is also a report today that Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive from Mariupol.

The situation in Mariupol and Volnovakha is reminiscent of Russia’s betrayal in September 2014 at Ilichivsk.  At that time the Russians agreed to a cease fire for Ukrainian forces and volunteers to leave the city.  The Russians opened fire on the leaving soldiers and volunteers after disarming them.  The massacre at Ilichiivsk led directly to Ukraine agreeing to sign the Minsk Agreement, now known as “Minsk 1.”

Russia’s New Invasion Justification - The Russian government censors its people and constantly lies to the rest of the world.  Its latest justification for the invasion is that Ukraine has been working on developing a nuclear bomb since 2014.  Ukraine has both the material and people to develop nuclear bombs and if it so wanted could do so in 4 to 5 months. 

The South - Russia did have success on Friday/Saturday in occupying Kherson and Melitopol.  Kherson is located near the mouth of the Dniepr River.   Melitopol is located east of Khearson, toward Mariupol.  A friend of mine used to live in Melitopol, which is mostly Russian speaking.  He used to tell me that the residents were not particularly friendly toward the Central Government of Ukraine.  This sentiment seems to have changed.

Immediately upon occupying these cities in Southern Ukraine, including Kherson and Melitopol, large street protests started, and the municipal administrations refused to work under Russian control.  Today will be third day that civilians demonstrate in Melitopol, second day in Kherson, and protests are underway at earlier occupied Khakhovka.  Khakhovka, across the river from Kherson, is the site of a large dam.   It appears that “occupation” in these cities consist of a few Russian military vehicles patrolling the streets but, for all intents and purposes, these cities seem be under control of Ukrainians, likely with some presence of Ukrainian territorial defense forces.

Mykolaiv, further west of Kherson, and half-way between Kherson and Odesa, has not been taken or surrounded.  According to reports Russians attempting to take Mykolaiv have been defeated, with Russians leaving some of their equipment behind and either going back toward Kherson by foot, or toward the cities of Voznesensk and Yuzhnoukrainsk, site of the South Nuclear Power Station.   Both cities are northwest of Mykolaiv and above Odesa.

Amphibious Landings - The Russian fleet has not attempted amphibious landings along the coasts of the Black and Azov seas.  However, Ukraine’s ports remain closed and aerial bombing continues along the coast.  I have seen reports that the Russian marines embarked in 2 landing ships are resisting attempting a landing.   They would likely need at least a 3-1 advantage over defending Ukrainians, if they were to have any chance of success, and beach conditions are not conducive. 

One of the beaches mentioned as a landing site is Zatoka, a resort town southwest of Odesa.  The advantage of taking Zatoka is that it would cut Bessarabia, a region south of Odesa going toward Romania, off from the rest of Ukraine.   The disadvantage to Zatoka is that it is located on a peninsula.  Prior to a landing, Russians would first have to secure the bridge connections to Odesa, to the north, and Bilhorod-Dnister to the south.  Otherwise, Ukraine can easily isolate the landing beach.

Zatoka is the only beach in this part of the Black Sea that doesn’t have a high bluff behind the beach.   The bluffs will allow Ukrainian defenders to shoot down at the invaders.

Ukraine also has the Neptune Anti-Ship Missile, with a range of up to 300km.   I believe it was tested and deployed not long before the start of the war.  Ukraine probably only has a few Neptunes, but the Russians must be aware of their existence.   Ukraine has also asked the U.S. for Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Hospitals in northern Crimea have stopped accepting civilian patients and reports indicate that there between 1000 to 1500 wounded invaders in these hospitals.   I have seen reports that these hospitals now contain 4 – 5,000 wounded Russians, and that other patients have been moved to hospitals further south in Crimea, in Simferopol and elsewhere.

The North - Russian invaders have focused their major operational reserves in the north on capturing Kyiv and Kharkiv.  However, stiff resistance in surrounding communities has halted any advances.  Rather than fighting the Russians are conducting indiscriminate artillery shelling and aerial bombing of these communities, including Chernihiv.   According to one report, Ukrainians have driven a Russian unit that was in front of Kharkiv back over the Russian border.

The Russian forces that have been halted around these three cities, Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv.   Those caught between Zhytomir, an oblast capital located around 80 miles northwest of Kyiv, and Kyiv, and those between the border and Kyiv are facing counterattacks.  Following a press conference yesterday the reason for continued destruction of Russian forces that invaded Ukraine was made clear.  The Ukrainian army is being effectively supplemented by partisan forces, known as territorial defense forces, who are responsible for taking out stalled columns.

Aerial bombing of civilian targets, along with missile strikes, continues in all major centers across Ukraine.  Concurrently Ukraine destroyed another 4 fighter bombers and five attack helicopters.  One of the Russian bombers was destroyed over Chernihiv.  The pilot survived.  He told interrogators that he was engaged in the terror bombing over Aleppo, Syria, for which he was decorated by Bashir al Assad, Syria’s President.  He said that the purpose of his flight over Chernihiv was only for reconnaissance.  Right!

The border with Belorusia is being strengthened.  Yesterday saw an individual Belorussian soldier, and a group of three, desert and surrender to Ukraine.

Russian forces in central Ukraine have stopped advancing and are retreating to regroup.  While they’re regrouping, they are suffering heavy losses from local self-defense forces. 

Russia continues to try and cow Ukraine through indiscriminate rocket, artillery and bombing attacks but this does not appear to be working.  The invaders continue to lie regarding their intentions and justification. 

Russian soldiers are deserting in numbers and now Ukraine is planning building POW camps.

Below is entirely my commentary -

No-Fly Zone – Although a no-fly zone would be helpful, it’s worth keeping in mind the following:

·        A NFZ wouldn’t protect Ukrainian cities from missile strikes.

·        Ukraine’s air force seems to be operating at will, without a NFZ.

·        It is likely that NATO is using AWACS planes under NATO command, to jam tactical air and land communications, targeting and navigation.   This may be one explanation for why a single Ukrainian plane took out an entire Russian armored column, that was located within 15-minute flying time from Russian bases in Crimea.   Why didn’t Russian planes rise up and take out the Ukrainian plane, or why wasn’t the Russian Air Force providing combat air patrols over the column?

Returning Ukrainians – According to Ukraine’s State Border Service, approximately 140,000 Ukrainians, mostly men, have returned to fight for their country including one, a 25-year-old lawyer, who went into the Army yesterday, having returned from Poland.   In addition, there are approximately 3,000 individuals from other countries volunteering to fight for Ukraine, including former U.S. Army rangers and Royal Marines.   Net of losses, if true this influx has substantially increased the personnel strength of the Ukrainian Army, from its original complement of approximately 250,000 troops.

Coverage by US Media – I have come to largely ignore most coverage of the war by U.S. media, for two reasons.  First, the U.S. Media, and even the Biden Administration, developed a narrative that this war would be a Russian walkover.   The U.S. media seems to be having a hard time climbing down from this narrative, but in the last few days I am happy to report that they are making progress. 

I don’t believe that any of the major U.S. broadcast or cable TV networks have any reporters covering military operations.   They’re either in Lv’iv, over 300 km. from the fighting, or in Central Kyiv, broadcasting from the rooftop bars of either the Intercontinental or Hyatt Hotels.  The operative policy seems to be - don’t put the “talent” in harm’s way.

I believe that the Biden Administration was more cynical.   Without any proof on my part, perhaps the reason why the Biden Administration refused to provide Ukraine with anti-missile systems, like the Patriot Missile System, was because of their conclusion that Ukraine wouldn’t last long enough to benefit from its use.  Now, we’re seeing the damaging effects of this decision, in the destruction from missile strikes taking place in major Ukrainian cities.  Ukraine has no effective defense against missiles.

Experience Gained From the Revolution of Dignity -  In many areas, including first aid, food distribution and civilian logistical support, Ukraine is benefitting from lessons learned during the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, or Euromaidan.   During Euromaidan, protestors created makeshift hospitals in the basement of churches.  The same thing is happening today all over Ukraine.  I wouldn’t be surprised that the Army is relying on civilian groups to deliver food, spare parts and to evacuate wounded soldiers.  All this took place during Euromaidan.

How to Help – Many of you have asked about how to help Ukraine and Ukrainians.   First, on behalf of my wife and her family, especially those in Ukraine, I’d like to thank you all for your concern.   So far, everyone is safe.

All the major non-profits like the Red Cross, International Rescue Committee, and others, are now accepting donations to help Ukraine, especially the over 1 million refugees now seeking refuge within Ukraine, as well as in several other countries in Europe.

There are also organizations that are more targeted.   One example is the Ukraine Freedom Fund (https://www.ukrfreedomfund.org/en) .  It is run by a friend of mine, Andy Bain.  I believe that Andy is still in Ukraine.   Andy started UFF in 2014, during the fighting in Donbas when the Ukrainian Army was relying heavily on civilian support and crowdfunding. 

My wife and I are focused on how to help civil society groups, including professional groups and their individual members, survive during a time when few of them can work.  Over the last 30 years, Civil Society has played a critical role in Ukraine’s progress toward Free Enterprise and the Rule of Law.  Some say that Civil Society acts as a kind of shadow government in Ukraine, where civil society groups are trusted whereas government entities are not.   One of the ways we’re looking at doing this is connecting civil society groups, including professional groups, in Ukraine with counterparts in the U.S.  We are both novices in this area; we welcome all suggestions.

Western medical experts played a critical role during the 2014/15 fighting in Donbas, helping with trauma, battle wounds and addressing PTSD.  The need is now going to be exponentially larger. 

·        Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense is reviewing this number as they don’t have all of yesterday’s numbers.

·        Reporting of destroyed Drones only includes armed drones and not surveillance drones

Graham