Post from newsman friend Bob Homans

20220302

Bob has had the best summaries I have seen of this war. Let me say his name again - Bob Homans - as I pass on what he writes.

For myself, I say only that we passed another quiet night. Three missile explosions at bedtime, then silence.

Graham

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Ukraine – 3/1 Sitrep

By: Robert Homans

March 1, 2022

Before last night’s performance, the cast of the Metropolitan Opera sang the National Anthem of Ukraine, followed by a moment of silence.

Request – If anyone receiving these emails is sending them on to Fox News, I would appreciate it if they gave attribution, not for my sake but for the brave individuals who are providing me information.  Normally I would give out their names, but these aren’t normal times.   Last night, on “Fox News Primetime With Brett Baer,” Baer read word-for-word part of one of my friend’s commentaries.  I’m not sure if Brett Baer got the information from me, as my friend says them to others.   However, Brett Baer said that information he got took place yesterday, when in fact it took place on February 25th.   In these times accurate reporting is critical.   People in Kyiv rely on information, to decide whether to stay or go.

A Refugee Account – This was sent by a friend of mine, who has lived in Kyiv for roughly 30 years, he owns 2 houses in Kyiv, and he has a Ukrainian family.   He has built his whole life in Ukraine.  This is his account of his escape from Kyiv (this time, I will put any comments I have in bold face.  I will refer to the name of his Partner as “T,” and their daughter as “N”:

“N and I arrived safely to Budapest last Sunday evening.  We had originally traveled to Truskovetz (Truskovetz is near Lv’iv and is sometimes known as “Ukraine’s Baden Baden”) in Western Ukraine in the belief that we would be safe from the impending invasion and the dangers, bombings, deaths and shortages caused by the war.  We were wrong. Russian bombings fell in nearby Lv’iv, just outside Truskovetz, and other nearby areas. Emergency sirens began to sound on a regular basis. The day before we fled Ukraine, the local militia arrested a group of Chechen (looking) saboteurs in the lobby of our hotel. In the evening, Russia bombed a fuel supply depot outside Kyiv.  This is sure to accelerate the already declining fuel supplies available to citizens.  This and many other factors told us we should leave Ukraine as soon as possible.” 

“T is still in Kyiv tending to the needs of her bedridden mother. She encouraged us to leave ASAP with a call from the building’s basement where she had spent the night with over 100 others. We began to make plans to go to Poland, but in the evening, I received a call from a friend who had already been at the Polish border crossing for over 40 hours.  He expected it would take another day or two for him to get through based on the rate of processing and the number of refugees in front of him.  We decided on Hungary and targeted a rather obscure crossing point.”  

“A friend of mine in Lv’iv put us in contact with a Rotary Club contact in Truskovetz who helped us find a driver very quickly.  After he scrounged enough gasoline to get to the border, we left our hotel not really knowing what type of gauntlet we would be running through to get out of the country.  I believe our guardian angel was along for the ride. Other than delays at multiple military and local militia checkpoints along the way, we made good time and traffic was light.  Since the driver had never been nor even heard of the crossing we selected, all three of us were using google maps and other Apps as we drove.  When the driver stopped to ask directions, nobody knew about the crossing. We did eventually find it and the line of cars was maybe 3 kilometers long.  However, since N and I were to use the pedestrian processing, the driver was able to drop us near the front of the auto line.”

“The pedestrian line only had about 100 or so and we were processed in less than 2 hours.  As we completed customs, a young man approached us to ask if we needed a ride to Budapest.  This was a 3-hour drive, for free, and he offered us a room to stay with his family for a few days if we needed time to get adjusted.  We opted for a hotel, but this demonstrates the welcome refugees are getting here in Hungary.  From the time we located a driver in Truskovetz and had dinner in Budapest was less than 11 hours. For many, that time is 4 or 5 days or longer and rather hellish.  We felt very blessed.”  

“After relaxing here in Budapest for a few days and getting over a bit of shock (or at least dealing with it), we will head to Warsaw to continue our efforts to support Ukraine and get T out of Kyiv.  I have friends in Poland that will help us find a place to live and set up shop.  In short, we are safe!” 

God bless them!  Latest count is approximately 660,000 refugees.

My Friend’s Commentary Continues (March 1st) –

“Ukraine is fighting a war on two fronts.  One front is at the forge and anvil of national destiny.  The other front is dancing on the involuntary spasms of self-destruction from a failed empire.  As failure is common and desire for empire is the lure and lash of populists and autocrats, I will speak to the waves of convulsing failures stalking Ukraine.”

“Yesterday saw new developments in Russia’s conduct of the war.  The Russians have sent in more troops, and according to US government they have now committed 75% of the troops that had been amassed outside of Ukraine.  Additionally, it appears that Byelorussia will also send its troops.  The Byelorussians intend to send troops rather than conscripts.” 

Russia’s Use of Conscripts – “Probably half of the invading army, if not more, are conscripts.  I assume this because most of the interviews with Russian Prisoners of War are of young men that look to be between the ages of 18 and 20.” 

“Ukraine, like Russia and other post-Soviet countries has conscription.  The difference between Ukraine and Russia is that 80% or more of Ukraine’s armed forces consist of people that have signed a contract to serve.  In Russia the figure is more like 70% conscripts and 30% professional soldiers.  Practically all of Ukraine’s professional army has combat experience whereas few in the Russian army have this experience.  Ukraine unlike Russia has a much lower ratio of officers to fighting personnel.  It is no surprise then that the Russian’s have high numbers of casualties and limited success.” 

“The Russian command is treating its soldier conscripts as gun fodder by sending them out with limited supplies and poor instructions against professional motivated experienced soldiers.  As this has failed to work the Russian command has in addition to adding more boots has now ordered their soldiers to shoot at anything that moves.  They have now begun scorched earth.  Typically, scorched earth is by the defense not the offense.  Using gun fodder and indiscriminate attacks are Soviet tactics not those of a modern army.  The only way to stop the Soviets was to kill them and unfortunately it now appears that the only way to stop the Russians will be to kill them as well.”

Russia’s Use of Ethnic Minorities – “One interview stands out.  Early last year as Russia increased its shrill propaganda and mudslinging campaign against Ukraine, a pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian video appeared on You Tube.  The video was of a group high school students from Buryatia.  Buryatia, populated by Buryats, is across the Bering Strait from Alaska.  Buryats appear to be no different from the Aleuit of Alaska or Inuit of Canada.  The kids performed a song that started with praise of Putin and ended with details on how they would like to come to Ukraine and kill Ukrainians.”

I didn’t think this was particularly appropriate but forgot about Buryats until I saw the interview of a Buryat POW yesterday.  The Buryat looked to be no older than 18, was wounded and was clearly traumatized.  He was practically crying, apologizing and begging to go home to his mother. 

Language – “Equally unfortunate for the Russians is that the Ukrainians speak Russian and whenever the Russians get out of their armored equipment, they now hear from the locals we don’t want you here, etc.  I’m being kind in saying that Ukrainians address the Russians politely.  Imagine a 20-year-old boy hearing from a woman who looks like his grandmother to get the F**K Out is shocked.”

“Yesterday the Russians occupied Berdansk which is half of the way between Crimea and Mariupol (on the Sea of Azov).  Once the Russians broke through the organized resistance on the outskirts of Berdansk they stopped their columns in the city center on the towns square by city hall.  They asked the mayor to cooperate, but he refused and together with the rest of the administration they left city hall.  Shortly thereafter about a 1000 people began demonstrating and packed the area around the column.  They had a message for the soldiers but those neither got out, shot or did much.  All the Ukrainian flags in Berdiansk remain and I am quite sure that the soldiers are pretty much at a loss.”

Stealing an Armored Personnel Carrier – “Perhaps the funniest was when some Russians left their vehicles in rural Chernihiv to buy food at a store, a passing farmer hitched their armored personnel carrier to his tractor and took off.  Footage shows the soldiers chasing after their vehicle.”

Russians Destroying an Entire Town – “There was no other humor in the confrontations with the invaders.  The city of Volnovakha in Kharkiv Oblast which had been resisting the Russians for four days was levelled to the ground by artillery.  Russian invaders had failed to take the city, so they destroyed it.” 

Also, Near Kharkiv – “The government also arrested top officials in a small Kharkiv town that were planning to transfer control of their municipality to Russia.  Orders were issued to shot saboteurs and looters on site.” 

When looters are caught, the Ukrainian Government has turned them over to municipal self-defense forces who, in turn, chain them or tape them to lampposts using duct tape.  Signs are affixed, telling passersby why there are there.   Often, they’re the targets of missiles consisting of rotten vegetables or human excrement.

In 2014, a gang of Donetsk separatists did the same to a woman, a hairdresser by trade, who was accused of spying for Ukraine.   What goes around, comes around.

“Several communities and the government have now issued reward offers to Russians if they surrender.”

Limited Russian Advance – “The Russians continued failing to take any major objectives.  All the key cities are free and fiercely resisting.  About noon yesterday, whether in frustration, or whether Russian headquarters were frustrated, tactics changed.  Instead of simply going forward in small units, that have largely failed, the Invaders added standoff indiscriminate shelling and bombing to their approach.  Hardest hit by this new addition was Kharkiv.  Yesterday what appeared to be cluster bombs were used against a housing project.   In addition, there is evidence that Russia used thermobaric munitions against the Central Square in Kharkiv.   Thermobaric munitions are prohibited by the Geneva Conventions.  They are sometimes called “vacuum bombs,” because of the shockwave sucks air out of the lungs of anyone who is nearby.”

Chechens – “Ukrainian civilian self-defense forces also destroyed a column of Chechen fighters.  In charge of this group was the second in command of Chechnya’s military forces.  Chechens that had fled Russia after the second Chechen war have organized a fighting force which is on its way to Ukraine.  In addition to Chechen volunteers the government has waved visa and immigration restrictions on volunteers wishing to come to Ukraine and fight the Russians.  The one limitation is that foreign volunteers must have military experience.  The government has created the command structure for two legions of foreign fighters.  Not sure what the size of a legion is but I believe that there are already over 500 volunteers from abroad.”

Reverse Refugees – “Many Ukrainians who have been living in Europe are returning to fight for their country.   There are reports of individuals from other countries coming to Ukraine to fight.”

 International Criminal Court – “The government filed genocide and criminal charges against the Russians yesterday at the Hague International Criminal Court.  Not sure how they managed that as it was Sunday.”

Orthodox Church – “The head of the Russian orthodox church in Ukraine, which had been supporting the occupation of Donbas, made a statement yesterday condemning the invasion and asking Russian troops to leave Ukraine.  Concurrently yesterday civilian self-defense forces intercepted at St Michaels Ukrainian Orthodox Cathedral in Kyiv a hit squad that came to assassinate the head of the Ukrainian church. “

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

Latest Russian Casualty Figures (From the Defense Ministry) –

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense.  Soviet and Russian military losses.

Other Commentaries -

·       Air Operations – The latest tally for the MiG-29 pilot, known as the “Ghost of Kyiv,” is 18.  Ths makes him a “Triple Ace.” 

·       Air force – According to the same person, the Ukrainian Air Force is now using highways as makeshift landing fields.   These may be used to distribute the weapons coming in from NATO countries.

·       Another Armored Column Destroyed – This took place around 40km west of Kyiv.   For those of you who know Kyiv, it took place near the golf course.   This may be part of the Russian effort to surround Kyiv.

From Me –

NATO - I would still not be at all surprised if NATO gets further involved, because of three possible factors:

·       Russia has threatened to interdict weapons deliveries from NATO Countries – a possible Article 5 violation.

·       I doubt NATO countries will stand by and allow a repeat of Sarajevo or Grozny on NATO’s doorstep, Article 5 or no Article 5.

·       Flood of refugees into NATO countries.

Logistics – This is an excellent article describing in detail the causes of the logistics problems that Russia is encountering.

Alexander Ovechkin – Last night the Toronto Maple Leafs defeated the Washington Putins (I mean Capitals) 5-3.   Both Ovechkin and Kuznetsov, both Putin apologists, had bad games, each getting a “minus 4,” measuring the goals scored when they were on the ice.    Justin Holl (No. 3 for the Leafs) scored a goal and an assist, and he was named the No. 1 Star.  The goal he scored, with 1.6 seconds left in the 2nd Period, is eclipsed by goal Justin scored in the NCAA Championships, when he played for the University of Minnesota.  In the Semifinals he scored a goal against the University of North Dakota with 0.5 seconds left in the game, sending his team to the Finals. There are 2 Ukraine Connection here: 

·       Justin’s Uncle served as Head of a USAID technical assistance project in Ukraine, called the Commercial Law Center.  

·       Justin’s Aunt is Ukrainian by birth.

·       Karma IS kicking back.