Bob Homans yesterday asked precisely the question that was on my mind:
"I think, it’s probably more important to ask a simple question (which more than a few of you have already asked). The Orsk and her resting place in the Berdyansk harbor mud begs the question: Who in their right mind would tie up three big warships to a wharf in shallow water, well within the range of an enemy, who not only has everything from ballistic missiles to bombers to skin divers to limpet mines (but not yet anti-ship missiles, I guess) to attack your ships? And, what’s more, an enemy with probably hundreds of locals ready to report every movement in the port, and if all these grandmothers and spy geeks do miss something, your enemy also has access to pretty much the full intelligence collection and processing capacity of the United States?
"The snide answer to that question is: a military leadership clever enough to attempt a blitzkrieg, highly mechanized main attack right through Europe’s largest marsh, precisely at the outset of Spring thaws, that’s who. Or a military leadership that treats attack helicopters and air crews, basically, as expendable firecrackers."
I stayed at the Hotel Bristol, about a mile southeast of the wharves, when visiting the beach in Berdyansk three times in 2008-2009. The beach, like the whole Azov Sea, is very shallow. Completely protected by the Crimean Peninsula from even the small surf of the Black Sea, there is nothing to grind up the seashells. Even 200 yards from shore it isn't deep enough to swim, and the cockle and clamshells cut your feet.
My guess is that the harbor has to be dredged to accommodate ships of the size that the Russians were using. This is not a major commercial port.
One can imagine, looking at this photograph, that the hulk of a destroyed 300-foot-long ship will be very much in the way if they want to use this in the future. Which they may not want to.
Why did they use Berdyansk in the first place? It is on the wrong side of the Crimean Peninsula for launching an amphibious assault on Odessa. It appears that they would use it to land military equipment and troops that had embarked from Rostov or perhaps Sochi. Why by ship when they could move west along highways straight from Russia? Perhaps they don't have as total control of those roads through Melitopol and Kherson as they would like to claim.
Or, as Homans suggests, sheer stupidity. As he writes, the Secretary of Defense, General Shoigu, has not been seen for a couple of weeks. It may be that a delusional Vladimir Putin is directing things himself. Russia boasted to the world on Monday that they were able to move warships into Berdyansk with impunity. Pride goeth before a fall.
This is an opportunity for a riff on Ukraine's beaches. California it is not. All of the beaches are cold except in the height of summer. Yalta and Masandra in Crimea are steep, rocky beaches. Okay for sunbathing if you bring a soft mat to lie on. Not great for swimming. The water in Odessa is turbid, though the beaches are sandy. West of Odessa, in Libidivska, the beaches are sandy but lead to high cliffs only about 100 yards from the water. Though there is not enough surf for surfboarding, the wind makes the water choppy enough that it is not terribly pleasant for swimming either.
Now for the good part. The best swimming I have found is right here in Kyiv. There isn't any dense civilization north of us to bring pollution down our rivers. Our ponds, lakes and rivers are healthy. They are alive with frogs, whom we will start to hear within the next few weeks, and fish. Our local Desno River, which joins the Dnieper a couple miles to our south, has its headwaters in Russia upstream from Chernigov. It is not dammed and does not have any commercial shipping. The sandy beaches all along the rivers and lakes are crowded with beachgoers in the summer. We are fortunate to be far enough from apartments and public transportation that ours are not so overrun.
Ukrainians take more to swimming than Americans. My route of about a third of a mile to the end of the lake, then back, takes me past a couple of beaches. There are always a generous handful of people actually in the water in addition to those soaking up the sun. Though I have never figured out how it works, the water in the lake is refreshed by an underground flow from upstream, and it leaves via a sluice system leading back to the river at the other end. The top layer is warm, but standing up your feet sometimes find themselves in a current of pretty cold water.
Those are fond recollections. They will be all the sweeter this year when the war is over.
With so many people gone from Kyiv, Grandma has no trouble getting an appointment for Grandpa's kidney dialysis and other medical treatments. Not only did he get prompt and considerate attention yesterday, but Grandma was able to go to the grocery store by the hospital and bring back flour, grapefruit and other stuff we need. It is somewhat odd that the stores are out of sugar. Beet sugar is a major crop here.
That's the 9:00 a.m. news from Lake WeBeGone. Yesterday at this time we were hearing explosions. Today, silence. After posting this I am sure the above average children will be begging for the strong man to take them back down to the playground as the good-looking women busy themselves about the house.
Yeah In 1980 I went on one of those 'Tour Russia' trips (normally for 30 instead there were only 6 of us because the Russians had just invaded Afghanistan).
Anyway I was very impressed with the island recreational park in the Dnieper in Kiev. Nice river, people fishing, people playing basketball, a walking bridge...it was cool.
5:15 PM. A wonderful quiet over the whole city today. Pray to God that it might extend over the whole country.
It looks as though Putin would be satisfied with the status quo ante bellum. Ukraine, however, was vulnerable then and fears being vulnerable again.
To what? It is clear even to us former unbelievers that Russia has a strong imperialistic streak in her. What Putin has done is irrational but in keeping with Russian history. Will they be sufficiently chastened by this fiasco - as Germany was after her second war - to give it up? Ukrainians don't believe it, though IMHO we have to do so in order to find peace.