Jerking Putin Around

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This piece captures what I have been thinking and sort-of saying. It is Trump who is jerking Putin around, not the opposite.

Let’s look at the facts

What has Trump done?

• Forced down oil prices, by sanctions, jawboning, help from allies like the Saudis, crushing the shadow fleet, and giving Ukraine a green light to attack Russian tankers.

• Used diplomatic means to isolate Russia. Midwifing the peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Establishing the export corridor from the ‘Stans bypassing both Russia and Iran. The expensive campaign to keep Transnistria failed. Kazakhstan is openly resisting Russia. Even Belarus is edging away.

• Quietly helped Ukraine, providing needed armaments (though not enough) while allowing the spotlight to focus elsewhere (viz, Tomahawks)

• Used military force to cripple Russia’s allies. Knocking out Iran’s nuclear facility at Fordow, taking out Maduro.

It would be wrong to say that Trump has not helped Ukraine. However, most of the help involved third countries.

Putin is in a box

• Russia’s economy is on the ropes due to sanctions, shadow-fleet crackdown, and vast expenses

• Putin is running out of men. Russia’s traditionally inexhaustible resource of bodies is being exhausted.

• Putin has only one dependable ally, North Korea. Hungary and the Czech Republic are using him as a foil to play their own games, but remain with Europe.

• Putin’s army has burned through most of their Soviet-era equipment. It cannot be replaced even if money is found.

• Putin’s domestic allies such as Kadyrov are weakening and/or dropping away.

• The Russian population is feeling the deprivations brought by war: cold, hunger, isolation and poverty. Domestic unrest is a real threat.

In a nutshell, Putin’s regime is on borrowed time. We cannot afford to say so because it might erode the will to make the final push.

And the interests of Trump and the United States

• Terminally weaken Russia without providing Putin any excuse for nuclear escalation, fulfilling the purpose for which NATO was established in 1949.

• Minimize cost and risk to the USA from military operations.

• Have Europe finance as much as possible of its own defense.

• Stop the erosion of free speech and attacks on the right in Europe

• Cripple the leftist-dominated international organizations such as the UN, WHO, UNESCO and the like.

• End discrimination through the EU’s woke policies with regard to immigration, gender and the like.

I conclude

Ukraine’s victory is consistent but far from synonymous with Trump’s and America’s long-term interests. He should be judged by how effective he is at protecting the interests of the people who voted for him.

The view from my cold bunker in Lake WeBeGone is that things are going our way. If Trump is being parsimonious with the use of US resources, so be it. The US, like the whole world, is still living beyond its means. Gold at $5100, silver $108 as I write is a stark warning that Trump will soon have other pressing problems.

Graham