A year ago, the water carriers for Putin were vastly more numerous. Where are they now?
Three longtime Russophiles have pretty much disappeared from YouTube: Patrick Lancaster, Gonzalo Lira and Thomas Röper. Lira still posts a bit. Röper has his own Russian-hosted site. Moreover, unlike the others, he has some recent and topical news. Wrong, but recent! His only relevant headline, from October 17, claims that the US has delivered ATACMS rockets with a 300 km range (wrong so far only the 165km version has been used) and makes no mention of the devastating attacks that day on Berdyansk and Lugansk.
The Unz Review, which has long beaten the drums for Russia, has been largely silent on Ukraine in general, and very, very quiet about the progress of the war. Even Paul Craig Roberts seems to have thrown in the towel. They still point out corruption and conflicts, but they don’t write about how the war is going.
Which leaves our last rat, the indefatigable Col. Douglas MacGregor. Even he is fading. Instead of his own video on his YouTube channel, we have this podcast interview by a Klaus Bernpaintner. Kind of low-rent.
This is the fluff he writes about himself: “Colonel Douglas Macgregor Straight Calls - Analysis of breaking news and in-depth discussion of current geopolitical events in the United States of America and the world.” Wrong. It contains no breaking news whatsoever. No reference to recent events in Ukraine, or to other sources. He is so wrong on almost everything of importance as to be laughable. So, let’s laugh. I transcribed the interview and have excerpted portions below. Please, if you want total accuracy, and have the stomach for it, listen to him on YouTube.
“First I would like to update on Ukraine since the last becoming more obvious to the average person that this isn't going so well for the West."
MacGregor puts the high end of the death toll for Russia at 50,000 and 450,000 for Ukraine.
How does he know? He says “The analyst said I depend upon looks at all of the death notices in the newspapers, so obviously you have to have someone who speaks Ukrainian and Russian. [He] writes it fluently and fortunately I have that with me. You look at the death notices the obituaries, you look at the cemeteries we have seen space-based imagery of cemeteries that had been radically expanded to accommodate an additional 150,000 dead, you know that this sort of thing. You also can look at some of the reports that come in I would tell you that my experiences been that the Russians have actually been pretty straightforward and honest in their assessments.”
This defies common sense. MacGregor never, never writes about specific battles such as Bakhmut or Robotne. The world press says that Russia loses thousands of soldiers in “meat wave” attacks in these battles. If it is wrong, there should be a rebuttal.
Conversely, if Ukraine is losing such vast numbers of soldiers, where is it happening? Nothing reported!
MacGregor sees Vladimir Putin as a truth-teller. Early in the interview he says “In fact, on more than one occasion … Putin … announced numbers … actually lowballing the … the Ukrainian losses. Russian losses have never been high. They've always been modest. There have been a few days when they have been larger, but you know you're looking at less than 100,000 casualties for the entire war and of that number, perhaps less just less than 50,000 dead. Russians may have taken … killed in action … 35,000” … “What they know to be true based on overhead imagery is what about what I discussed before, and the general consensus now is it's probably between 450,000 and 500,000 dead.”
“ No one is really sure of how many are wounded. Difference between wounded on the Russian side, it would on the Ukrainian side is profound and the reason for that is it. The difference between wounded on the Russian side, it would on the Ukrainian side is profound and the reason for that is many many Ukrainians died.”
“There will Ukrainians in many cases are far more seriously wounded than the Russian soldiers and what is really tragic is that the Ukrainians don't have the capacity to evacuate [them]. They were out of medical support.
In many cases, it's gotten so bad that a Ukrainian officer or soldier who is severely wounded has to literally bribe people to put him in an ambulance and taken up into a hospital. Ukraine's always been horribly corrupt, but this is ridiculous in the middle of a war bribing the people on the battlefield that are driving ambulances to take key to a real hospital for real treatment.”
“Worse, I think the wars effectively over. The Russians not only hold the strategic initiative, but they have a force of roughly a million men now 750,000 in southern Ukraine and around Ukraine and I think that total is going to go up to about 1.2 million before they are through...
“So, the question is, so why don't the Russians attack and there are two answers to that one. First is that they haven't had to because Ukrainians have done in the favor of the impaling themselves on Russian defenses. If your enemy is dumb enough to attack you relentlessly and you occupy what are effectively impregnable defenses, then by all means don't interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake. So that's quite clear.
“ Secondly, the Russians have persistent surveillance all over the country. They have space-based intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance platforms, just as we do theirs are narrowly focused on Ukraine. They know what's happening in the country, they could see everything they can strike any target they care to whenever they want to. So, they haven't felt compelled to do very much but I think Pres. Putin has been meeting with his top generals and is close to the decision to allow the [effort] to move forward.
“The question is what is move forward [means to Putin.] Contrary to what people argued has never been interested in marching west to the Polish border. The problem for Pres. Putin and the Russians has been the unwillingness of anyone in the West to negotiate with. And the more opposition they encounter from the west ...the more land they feel obliged to take.
“They will undoubtedly seize Kharkov and they will eventually cross the river and seize Odessa. Those are historically Russian cities. They were never part of Ukraine, so one will expect that to happen. That could [happen] right now if we don't come to some sort of agreement. In other words, we and the Europeans or if were not part of it that's fine. If the Europeans do it, then the Russians will say all right.”
That’s enough to give you, dear readers, the flavor. Compare the handwaving generalities that MacGregor spews with the down-to-earth, factual analysis provided by writers Bob Homans, Mick Ryan, Sam and Lawrence Freedman, and YouTubers Denys Davydov, Reporting from Ukraine and The Russian Dude. The difference is absolutely night and day. Any reasonable person (that is asking an awful lot these days, is it not?) has to see that the Western pundits supporting Russia have a very weak case. Since the facts all go against them, they simply avoid facts, or make them up without providing links to their sources.
I have to ask, if the rats are smart enough to be deserting that sinking ship in large numbers, the crew are getting so badly mauled, and even the senior military ranks are being successfully thinned, how long will it be until the captain himself figures it out? Will there be a mutiny?
The pundits are saying that this war may drag on for another couple of years. I think that the tensions built up at the present are so high that they will be released in a shorter time than that. Exactly how I cannot predict.
If any of you readers can point me to some credible sources who are still predicting a Russian victory and/or a Ukrainian defeat, whether you believe them or not, please by all means post the links in the comments. I think that this kind of Russophile is becoming an extinct species.
That’s the news from Lake WeBeGone, where the strong man and the good-looking woman are leaving shortly to see Zoriana perform at a school production. One of the pleasures of parenthood.
By coincidence, I just listened to that interview. It's truly amazing listening to the verbal gymnastics used to somehow make it seem like Russia is winning. The idea that Russia could just take Kyiv and Kharkov and Odesa right now, but they are restraining themselves from winning and ending the war for some increasingly improbable reasons. And people still believe this. the comments section is full of people praising and thanking MacGregor. I think this might be an example of the 'backfire effect' The more reality disproves them, the more reality must be wrong.
Good article. I came to the same collusion about MacGregor in the early days of the war. The way I judge political commentary is by how detailed their responses to questions are. The more detailed the more credible (assuming the details ring true).
MacGregor seemed to be the master of the generalized answer. I'm happy to see that you've called him out.