I am amused by the speculation about Trump and Putin in Alaska

20250814

I laugh at the naysayers who predict that Putin will take Trump to the cleaners in Alaska. That Trump will be bamboozled, will give away the store.

Haven’t these people learned anything? From Trump’s two surprise victories? From his Art of the Deal? From his feinting this way and that to achieve his objectives, whether it be getting Congress to do what he wants, foreign governments to accept tariffs, illegal immigrants to stop coming? To his orchestrating statements from Hegseth, Vance, Bondi and Gabbard that point one way, then pivoting the other?

Of course he did not stop the war in 48 hours! Who could have? The important thing is that the steps he is taking to end it are far more than anything his predecessor did. He has made bold moves, such as bombing Iran’s nuclear sites, that others would not have done. He is at least talking with Putin – a necessary step. And talking about him. Sometimes positive, sometimes not, but never without some objective in mind, some gamesmanship.

To use his own metaphor, Trump is holding all the cards. Russia is exhausted. Out of cannon fodder, out of allies, out of tanks and ships, out of money and out of options.

Trump is taunting Putin. He knows the problems that Putin will face if he agrees to a cease-fire. He cannot afford to have hundreds of thousands of unwilling troops indefinitely occupy a country that manifestly does not want them. Territory that will be a huge, ongoing drain on the Russian treasury. Territory whose civilians, if offered the opportunity, will flee in large numbers to Ukraine.

Putin cannot afford the immense repairs that will be required to fix what Ukraine has damaged. He certainly cannot afford ongoing sanctions. He cannot afford to rehabilitate the broken bodies of his soldiers. There is nothing he can offer his oligarchs to buy their loyalty, which is secured now only by fear of his FSB thugs. He cannot afford to allow competent people the freedom to rebuild Russia.

In sum, Trump knows that Putin cannot afford peace. He probably cannot afford even to agree to a cease-fire. If he does, he will certainly be unable to honor it for any period of time. Whatever he does will appear to the world to be weak and duplicitous, done out of fear.

Why, then, does he oblige Putin to participate in this charade? It will be necessary, to show the world exactly who he is. Trump certainly has secondary objectives along the way. He has solidified a sanctions regime. He has broken away Russia’s allies such as Armenia and Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. He has gotten Belarus to waiver. He has been successful in getting NATO to pick up more of the tab.

Trump surely has the longer-term interests of the United States in mind. These may be better served by leaving Putin in power rather than creating a chaotic vacuum such as Obama/Hillary did with Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. Russia will surely need help with reconstruction, in exchange for which the United States could benefit considerably from Russian natural resources.

All of this is just speculation. My key question is how, after having been beaten and proved wrong so many times, in so many ways, his detractors can so boldly forecast that Trump will somehow fail in Alaska. Especially when there are so many ways to succeed. Let’s just grab our popcorn and enjoy the show.

Graham