Glad to have the opportunity for phone calls and email exchange

20220212

The topic is the supposed Russian invasion. Here is a brief letter that I wrote to my Army buddy and Eddie's namesake Edward.

Russia is conducting joint military exercises with Belarus. You are aware that the West has forced very strained relations between Belarus and Ukraine. Lukashenko, the longtime dictator, had some opposition in the last election. His opposition was strongly supported by the West.

As I have written, Lukashenko runs his own show. In particular he has not made the Covid vaccine mandatory. He in fact called them a Western scheme – quite the opposite of Russia. However, he is being forced to choose between East and West.

These joint military operations, as I understand, will be to the northwest of Kyiv. That portion of the border is called Polessia, a sparsely populated, largely swampy area along the Prypyat River. It would not be an ideal invasion route for heavy armor.

I think it is more a question of desperation in Washington. The Federal Reserve and others have a harder and harder time propping up the Dow Jones. More and more shelves are empty. Inflation is soaring, and the suppression of the population in the name of Covid is getting less and less bearable every day. The EU seems noticeably cool to the notion of an invasion. They are not evacuating their citizens.

With regard to my own situation, I do not want to flee in a last-minute panic with a whole bunch of other Americans. The evacuations from Saigon and Kabul were a mess. I can envision a typical military hurry up and wait exercise. They would almost certainly want to jab me with the poison death shot, which I regard as a demise worse than a Russian bullet. There would be a question of my family, two of whom don't have passports at this point. There would be a question of where to go. Probably stay in a hotel in Poland or something like that.

As I have written before, our house is cut off from the city of Kyiv by a river on the west and a railroad embankment without crossings on the east. To come or go anywhere we have to drive three miles south. The closest target of military significance is a railroad bridge more than a mile away. I credit the Russian military with enough competence to avoid killing civilians, especially as far out of the way as we are. As I wrote a couple of months ago going into Covid lockdowns, we have a fairly adequate supply of food and charcoal if it comes to that.

Sorting it all out, I am sure we are far better off simply staying put. This week I have stumbled across a collection of Americans in Crimea. They are doing just fine under Russian rule. See Regis Tremblay and Edward Slavsquat. The Russians were quite careful with civilians, and especially American civilians, seven years ago. I do not think would be any different.

The exchange rate is a good barometer. Yesterday it was 27.90 to the dollar, down a bit from three weeks ago. Ukrainians are not panicking. I'm going to our Toastmasters meeting with Eddie this morning and I don't think that an imminent invasion will be much of a topic of conversation. Eddie reports, however, that it was all over the TV as he just went shopping.

Good as always to hear from you. Phone number is on my web site.

Graham