Facts about the war are hard to come by. The Canadian story. Bragging about my kids.

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Happy Washington's Birthday. The first President of the United States used to be considered a hero without flaw. Still not so bad in my mind. The government for which he established so many precedents has held up for 230 years. Not a bad run.

Putin has recognized the People's Republics. He has sent Russian troops into them. It is being predictably decried by the West as a violation of the Minsk agreements and everything else.

We don't know exactly what's happening in the Donbas. American and UK members of the OSCE (organization for security and cooperation in Europe) departed in early February. The OSCE website says that there are 700 members from 40 countries in the mission. They do not state the makeup, though one gets the feeling that it is predominantly made up of countries that would be aligned with the United States.

The United States has been talking about an imminent invasion of Ukraine for four months now. Russia has been vehemently denying it. On the strength of the accusations, the United States and NATO have sent a significant quantity of modern weaponry to Ukraine.

There has been an increase in the level of conflict along the borders of the People's Republics. Each side blames the other. Without the OSCE, it is hard to know exactly what is happening. Each side will use satellite, drone and smartphone videos for its own propaganda purposes. Without neutral reportage, who’s to know?

Let's examine the motivations. Why would Russia increase the level of harassment along the border? What would its strategic objectives be?

·        It would not likely be invasion of Ukraine. The invasion maps presented by the United States assume coming  directly across the Russian border, not through the People's Republics.

·        Increased hostilities decrease the likelihood of Russia achieving its stated objectives: completion of the north stream pipeline and preventing Ukrainian entry into NATO. My recent book review indicated Russia’s interests in 2014. They have not changed.

·        Defending the People's Republics forced Russia to introduce its own troops and to recognize the republics, both of which moves provoked the predictable unfavorable responses from the world community.

·        On the other hand, Russia is witnessing unrest on the home front. There is widespread resentment of the forced vaccinations. There are political scandals. War might be a distraction.

My bottom line – increased hostilities along the border in net don't advance Russia's interests.

How about NATO and the United States? What are their interests?

·        The United States has a long-standing interest in killing the North Stream pipeline deal. Increased hostilities seem to have made this a reality.

·        United States armaments manufacturers have a strong voice in the United States government. Increased exports of weapons make them money.

·        The United States administration is beset with problems: a collapsing economy, resentment of the Covid lockdowns and other policies, an unpopular immigration policy, the collapse of civil order in the big cities, and a financial collapse. Europe has similar problems. Wars have always served as distractions.

In my analysis, United States and NATO have more to gain from an increase in the level of conflict than does Russia.

I would not be surprised to learn that Ukraine's recently delivered armaments included more accurate artillery and rocketry in addition to top-quality sniper rifles, and that those weapons were somehow involved in the border incidents. I would also not be surprised to learn that Russia has more effective countermeasures than the People's Republics.

It could make sense to send in Russian troops because (1) Russian troops would be trained in their use, (2) Russia would not want to entrust them to the hotheads they installed as leaders of the People's Republics, (3) they want to use defensive measures discreetly, so as not to reveal useful information about capability and tactics to NATO, and (4) Russia cannot afford to be seen as letting down these Russian-speaking enclaves of its own creation. If this is so, sending and Russian troops as a countermeasure is a calculated risk. It would not be necessary if Russia's intent were to invade Ukraine. If the intent is primarily to defend the People's Republics it makes a great deal of sense.

This seems to be a global war, another theater of which is Canada. The instruments of repression being brought to bear by the Canadian government are widely resented. It appears that the whole nation is rising up.  Videos from Ottawa clearly show soldiers with no insignia or name badges being used to disperse the truckers. There are reports that they spoke a foreign language among themselves, some say German. Such activity is not the hallmark of a democracy. We were outraged when the Russians used "little green men" without insignia to take over Crimea in 2014.

The Canadians themselves have concluded what was obvious to me a couple of days ago. Their truckers can force the issue by simply sitting on their hands. Use your unbiased search engine to find Bitchute Nationwide Walkout Begins Feb 21st Forward. 

It could be that the powers that be are looking over their shoulders and concluding that they are about to be overtaken by events. If they don't get a war in Ukraine shortly, they may be confronting conflicts closer to home.

Here at home, Zoriana woke up from her third day in her own new bed dry and without a diaper. Hooray! She is a happier child than she was six months ago. To some extent it is simply a matter of the phases that children go through. She absolutely demands that I play dominoes with her every night for an hour. That once again gives her exclusive attention. After that we read Hamster Huey and the Gooey Kablooie.  Also known as Calvin and Hobbes.

I bought Calvin and Hobbes for Eddie five years ago and we have read all four books, 20 years of comic strips, five or six times through. I am bored silly. Bill Watterson is a genius. He put very grown-up words and thoughts into the minds of the six-year-old child. A lot of it still goes over Eddie's head, and almost all goes over Zoriana's. What's the attraction? Why can't we move on to anything else? I think that my nightly objections, which the kids override, are part of the theater.

The kids also love to sing silly songs. Last night Oksana told me to Be Prepared. I sang Tom Lehrer's song by that title all the way through. It was the first time Eddie had heard it and he loved it. Zoriana and I still sing "Stop Look and Listen" as she practices crossing the street. This morning at breakfast we sang Little Bunny Foo Foo. It's one of the loveliest children songs going.

Little bunny foo foo,
Hopping through the forest
Scooping up the field mice,
And bopping them on the head

And down came the blue Fairy, and she said
Little bunny foo foo,
I don't wanna see you
Scooping up the field mice,
And bopping them on the head

And now I'll give you 3 more chances, (then 2, then 1)
And if you keep it up
I'll turn you into a goon! (Moral, after the last one: Hare today, Goon tomorrow)

The kids love to see Daddy hopping like a bunny and bopping field mice.

Marianna still only has one word, "Mama," but she understands everything that's going on. Marianna brought a boot as Zoriana was getting dressed to go out the door. I asked her "Marianna, where is the other one?" and she brought it over.

Eddie and I met with Victoria and Arthur again yesterday. Arthur had been assigned Alan Greenspan's History of Capitalism. That seems to me to be pretty heavy sledding for a first year student. He read the whole thing in Russian, although he says that most other students simply got the Cliff notes version from the Internet. He talked knowledgeably enough about Joseph Schumpeter to snow me, though I have to concede that's not that hard, and about Adam Smith and Karl Marx. We also talked a little bit about microeconomics – Vadim's beekeeping project and Eddie's understanding of the costs of production and the revenues to be realized.

That's the news from Lake WeBeGone, where the men are strong, the women good-looking, and the children working to convince me that they are above average.

Graham