Even the United States isn't calling it invasion. Cui Bono – who wins? Eddie's next book

20222023

Russia just (1) recognized the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic; (2) concluded agreements with them to provide military support and (3) received approval from his government to deploy troops abroad – obviously to fulfill (2) above.

In response Germany canceled the North Stream project, for which the pipeline has already been laid from St. Petersburg to Germany. Although it had been put on hold before, this time it sounds permanent.

In response Ukraine's President Zelensky has delivered a speech including the statement "Ukraine unequivocally qualifies the latest actions of the Russian Federation as a violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state. All responsibility for the consequences in connection with the above-mentioned decisions rests with Russia.”   He adds: “we are on our own land. We were afraid of nothing and no one, we owe nothing to no one, and we will not give anything to anyone. And we are sure of it.” Russia faces a hard war if it expects to steal more territory and resources from Ukraine." Zelensky recently said that he did not expect an invasion from Russia. I don't think he has changed his mind. But adding that rhetorical flourish surely inspires his base.

The United States continues to flog the notion that there will be a widespread invasion. Two readers have sent me this list of Ukrainian resources originally posted on Facebook as reasons for Russia to conquer us. Who knows? It could be the work of a troll.

From my not disinterested armchair, let me analyze this.

As far as resources go, the question is rather the capital to develop them. Russia has vast undeveloped natural resources. Snatching more from unwilling Ukrainians would be a dumb move.

Just observe what is happened to the resources of the People's Republics and Crimea since Russia took over. Many factories were ruined in the fighting, many skilled people emigrated to Ukraine.  Crimea was left with stingy Russian tourists instead of free spenders from the Ukraine in the West. They cut themselves off from abundant and inexpensive electricity and water, and export markets for wines and fruits. The 2014 war did not benefit anybody's economy. A 2022 invasion of Ukraine would repeat the same catastrophe on a much larger scale.

Through Russia's actions, the United States has achieved its long standing objective of scotching the North Stream pipeline. It disrupts the growing bonds between Germany and Russia, an objective of US foreign policy dating back a century or more. It makes Germany more dependent on the United States, in particular for liquid natural gas. Reviving LNG will be an economic boon to the United States.

This deus ex machina rids Ukraine of an intractable problem. The two breakaway republics had been a drain on Ukraine's treasury from the time of its independence. This clapped-out coal country, dotted with obsolete industrial plants, populated with pensioners, was a net drag despite a few operating assets: coal mines, steel production and such.

The breakaway republics had been reliable supporters of Yanukovych' Party of Regions. They provided the plurality that got him into office. The politics of the Donbas had been out of step with Ukraine since the beginning. Actually, out of step as well with Russia. The czars had scoured the Russian Empire for malcontents and misfits to mine coal after a Welshman named John Hughes discovered it in Donetsk about 1880. Their descendants had remained a liability to whoever governed the Donbas. Yanukovych had risen to the Ukrainian presidency as the toughest among thugs. He was despised and deposed because his Donbas style was out of keeping with the rest of Ukraine.

Recovering this territory would have been no asset to Ukraine, but no politician could afford to say as much. Forcing Russia's hand, making them recognize them as independent sovereignties, relieves Ukraine of a perpetual headache. Note that Russia did not absorb them into the Russian Federation. An arm's length relationship is safer for them as well.

Zelensky gets to cry crocodile tears as he is showered with armaments, bequests and loans from the West. It seems like a pretty good deal. He doesn't even have to join NATO or the EU, both of which would compromise Ukraine's independence and conflict with the traditional values of its rather conservative population.

China wins in that (1) the United States has driven Russia closer into its arms, (2) China gets to look statesmanlike in world affairs, drawing attention away from its own transgressions, (3) China took the occasion to raise its profile, voicing active support of Russia, and (4) China becomes a more important trade partner with Ukraine. Iran, Turkey, Syria and others benefit if only in that the United States can't be poking its nose everywhere at once.

Russia loses in the short term. The additional sanctions – what was left? – will force it to be even more self-sufficient and to tighten its relationship with China. They have already made quite a bit of progress to trade in local currencies rather than dollars, and to establish electronic funds transfer networks outside of the Swift system. These latest measures will accelerate the move.

Russia exports agriculture and metals and is quite dependent on imports for its electronics needs. Recent sanctions have led China to produce what it takes to replace Western producers for certain things, though trade embargoes have crimped Russia's manufacturing. Russia concluded a long-term gas export contract with China a couple of years back. Though it will not come online for a while yet, it represents a long-term commitment by both countries.

They have been hard at work improving the trade infrastructure connecting the two countries. China's Belt and Road network goes through Russia. European Russia now has the deepwater port at Sevastopol connected to Russia by a newly built railroad bridge through Krasnodar. It isn't ideal, but the alternative Black Sea port of Sochi simply isn't viable for freight shipments and the Baltic ports involve an extra few days' voyage and except for Kaliningrad ice up in winter.

I think about self-sufficiency in terms of our own life here. I grimace as I pay two dollars apiece for avocados and small packages of Philadelphia cream cheese, $10 a pound for salmon and 40¢ apiece for Nori seaweed paper to make sushi. That's the price of consumerism and of inflation. In a rational world we would be cutting back on stuff we absolutely don't need. Oksana grew up on borscht – beets, potatoes, carrots, parsnips, horseradish, cabbage and other stuff that came right out of the ground. It's actually pretty good. But convincing my family, or Ukrainians in general, to give up acquired tastes is not going to be easy.

The Russians, despite a long history of hardships, also aren't going to easily give up their imported wines and cheeses, Mercedes and Greek vacations. I am sure it is easier for Putin if he can blame those nasty foreigners for these necessary economies. It will help if the rest the world is experiencing economic hardships and inflation, as seems to be the case.

My conclusion is that this contretemps over the People's Republics serves everybody's interest in some measure. While I remain darkly suspicious that it is mostly the United States' meddling that has brought it about, there are elements in it that benefit each party in some way or another.

Conversely, a real invasion of Ukraine would be of no benefit to anybody even if it did not involve nuclear weapons. Those would, of course, be curtains for everybody. For this reason I expect Russia will follow the course it has been describing all along: protect the People's Republics, defend itself, and not invade Ukraine.

Even in saying this, I notice that the hryvnya exchange rate has crept up over 29. There is always the possibility that somebody knows something I don't.

Let me celebrate the benefits of living in a low-cost country. My new exercise bicycle started to make a grating noise as I pushed with my left foot in the power stroke. My diagnosis was a bad bearing. I located a repairman through the Internet. Eddie and the two girls watched in fascination as this Andrei expertly took it apart, determined that all it needed was adjustment, and put it back together. It was so well done that I asked him to do the old machine as well, the one Eddie is now using. Here they are, in tip top shape. Total cost? 600 hryvnya, about $45.

Eddie and I were looking at the next book for him to read in English. From my shelf I pulled down Ishi, The Last of His Tribe, which my mother had edited for Theodora Kroeber in the 1950s; No Turning Back, the History of Feminism and the Future of Women which I reviewed on Amazon a decade or so ago, Brave New World, Huckleberry Finn, and Gentlemen Prefer Blondes.

He didn't exactly leap at any of them, but we had fun reading the first couple of chapters of Gentlemen Prefer Blondes. It is a humorous look into the delicate feminine art of gold digging.  Eddie understood a bit more than I would have expected. Although he doesn't remember her, one of the women in Oksana's touring folk dance ensemble fit the description pretty well. So did dear Crystal, about whom I did a speech in my humorous series on dating as a divorcé in his 60s before I came to Ukraine.

That's the news from Lake WeBeGone, where the strong men are once again working out in relative silence, the good-looking women continue to indulge their taste for luxury imports, and the above average children are true to their genders, learning parsimony from Daddy and consumption from the ladies.

Graham