Diplomacy is the art of leaving your opposite number with only hard decisions

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Trump’s decision was not easy. It went against his campaign promises and angered a fair portion of the Republican party.

This is one instance in which he makes a pretty clear explanation.

• Iran does not need nuclear energy in any form. They have enough petroleum for any conceivable need.

• There is a worldwide market for fuel rods – no need to make their own reactor fuel.

• Atomic reactors need fuel enriched to about 3% U235. There is no peaceful use for 60% enriched uranium, which the Iranians already achieved.

• There is no legitimate reason not to allow international inspectors into enrichment facilities producing reactor fuel rods.

• There is certainly no legitimate reason to put such facilities 250 feet underground.

• Iran has been threatening “Death to the Great Satan, Death to Israel, and Death to America” for decades. There is a good chance that they meant it.

• Iran has been sponsoring terror throughout the region.

• Iran trades its munitions with other bad actors throughout the world, especially Russia.

One risk in action is that Iran will retaliate against US interests. Another is hypocrisy – the US preaches peace but commits an act of war. These risks are not negligible. Trump obviously made the judgment that allowing Iran to have the bomb was the greater risk.

What are the implications for me in Ukraine?

• Russia’s remaining allies get yet another example of Russia’s inability to protect its allies. It has conspicuously failed Armenia, Syria and now Iran. Kazakhstan is backing way in a hurry. Belarus, the most vulnerable of Russia’s neighbors, is being very quiet and talking with American diplomats. Russia’s only ally in its war with Ukraine is North Korea, and even they have not upped their commitment for six months.

• Iran’s exports of Shaheed drones and ballistic missiles will be substantially lower, if there are any at all. Ukraine will see less damage to our cities.

• A quick, decisive war will probably not affect the price of oil very much.

• The west may be able to pressure Iran into no longer serving as a route for shipping oil to China and India, increasing financial pressure on Russia.

• Military equipment that has been diverted to Israel may no longer be needed there, and made available to Ukraine.

• Having successfully taken decisive action against one bad actor, Trump may be more inclined to support Ukraine against Russia.

I formed these opinions on my own, but am happy to see them echoed by my Ukrainian friends. I am glad I was not in Trump’s shoes, having to make such a decision, but I cannot argue with either his decision or the result.

Graham