Bob Homans Sitrep May 2

2020503

Ukraine – 5/2 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
May 2, 2022

The South

According to the map from the British Defense Intelligence (below), Ukraine appears to be making advances in the South, especially in and around Kherson.   There is also increased partisan activity, including blowing up a television transmission tower in Kherson that Russia had converted to broadcast Russian TV stations.   TV is the major means by which Ukrainians get their news.    Ukraine also blew up a railroad bridge near Melitopol, that Russia was using to supply its troops operating in Donbass from sources in Crimea. 

At the same time Russia is attempting to incorporate Kherson and other areas in the South into “Ruskiy Mir.”  Russia is taking the following actions:

·        Introducing the Ruble as the sole means of exchange.

·        Attempting to cut off internet and mobile phone access and convert both to Russian servers and exchanges.

·        Attempting to organize a referendum, with the objective of creating a “Peoples’ Republic of Kherson,” or incorporate Kherson into Russia.

Ukraine is now engaging in two counter attacks, toward Kherson and around Kharkiv, and at the same time holding the existing line of contact along the border of occupied Donbass.   The weapons supplies cannot come soon enough if these counter attacks are to be sustained.

Inside Russia

Explosions and fires at military facilities inside Russia continue and are increasing in tempo.  Ukraine neither confirms nor denies that these events are the result of Ukrainian actions.  Either way, these may make it more difficult for Russia to re-supply its troops inside Ukraine.   It should be kept in mind that in the best of times Russian facilities are prone to accidents, simply because of poor maintenance and/or simple carelessness.

Black Sea

I suspect discussions are taking place on how to keep Ukraine’s Black Sea ports open to commercial shipping, up to including naval action.   One of the participants in a conference that I attended today, virtually, stated that it is impossible to move bulk cargo, such as grains and oilseeds by rail out of Ukraine, to ports in Southern Europe where they may be shipped to their final destinations.  He stated that for bulk shipments, there is no alternative to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.  Last night, on the American news show “60 Minutes,” the Head of the Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO), stated that grain markets are so finely balanced, that taking Ukraine’s agricultural exports off the market may cause extensive famine.

The naval action might be something like the “Tanker Wars” between 1984 & 1988, when Iran tried to block Iraqi, Kuwaiti, Emerati, Qatari, Bahraini and Saudi oil shipments through the Straits of Hormuz.   To keep the shipments open, the United States “re-flagged” oil tankers and provided U.S. Navy escort for the tankers.   U.S. Navy ships were also involved in actions against Iranian assets that were trying to stop the shipments.

I have no insight into the discussions, or even if such discussions are taking place, but it seems that the ideal solution would be to have navies of NATO members bordering the Black Sea to provide surface escort for merchant ships transiting between Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and the Bosporus, with NATO aircraft operating from bases in these same countries supplying air cover.   The current situation, with Russia blockading Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, is now at the point of becoming untenable, for Ukraine and for the World at large, especially vulnerable countries in danger of food shortages.

U4U: Post-war reconstruction and Marshall Plan to Ukraine

I was invited to attend “U4U” by one of the organizers.   Consistent with Chatham House Rules, here are a few my personal takeways:

·       The numbers, Ukraine’s monthly operating deficit of $5 – 7 billion, and cost of reconstruction, approximately $1 trillion, is consistent with earlier estimates I have seen.

·       The sources of financing didn’t include the private sector, something I found surprising.

·       Talk of “green reconstruction” and “building back better.”

·       Some reversion by a couple of the participants to the old habits of lecturing Ukraine about the need to “reform” and to address “corruption.”

·       Pushback on lecturing by one participant.

·       Use of Ukraine’s successful de-centralization program, of pushing State revenues down to local governments as a template for the allocation of relief money.

From participating in U4U my suggestions, in no particular order or priority, are:

1.       Ukraine has moved beyond being lectured to about the need for “reform” and the dangers of “corruption.”   After all, Ukrainians are fighting and dying for freedom, and the principles of free enterprise and the Rule of Law.

2.       Ukraine’s method of managing, whether it’s setting up barricades, food distribution and First-Aid during Euromaidan, or logistics and military organizations during the current fighting, need to be replicated and applied to Ukraine’s reconstruction.   If nothing else, this war has shown that the West has little or nothing to teach Ukraine in these areas.

3.       Ukraine and the West need to work with Ukrainian oligarchs.    Willie Sutton the famous American bank robber, was once asked why he robbed banks.  His answer, “Because that’s where the money is.”   Ukrainian oligarchs have a lot of money that will be needed for reconstruction.  There are certainly ways of ensuring that this money is used for reconstruction, in a manner that benefits Ukraine.  System Capital Management (SCM), owned by Rinat Akhmetov Ukraine’s biggest oligarch and the owner of Azovstal in Mariupol, has probably sustained more losses than any business in Ukraine.    If Azovstal is to be rebuilt, and Mariupol restored, SCM and Akhmetov are critical factors. 

5/2 Sitrep

INTERNATIONAL

Iltalehti:  Finland will apply for NATO membership on May 12. 

The Epoch Times USA:   A Russian law firm filed a lawsuit against Apple, seeking 90 million rubles ($1.28 million) in damages for consumers affected by Apple's withdrawal of its subscription. payment service from Russia.

Interfax:  Russian bailiffs have filed a case against Google for the enforcement of a fine of 7.2 billion rubles (around $100,000,000) for repeated refusal to remove content prohibited in the Russian Federation.

Russia is negotiating with Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan to organize the re-export of Russian products to international markets.

Information and Security Service of Moldova:  Websites of several state institutions of Moldova were subjected to DDoS attacks carried out by Russian hackers.

Russian media said that military warehouses were allegedly blown up near Belgorod in Tomarovka.

Financial Times:  Russians are trying to exchange their property in London for housing in Dubai, looking for ways to get around the financial restrictions imposed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Prime Minister:  Finland is going to increase sanctions against Russia and wants to expand military-technical assistance to Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Ministry:  UN Goodwill Ambassador Angelina Jolie was "called" to Ukraine to divert attention from the evacuation of civilians from Mariupol.

Kursk Governor of the Russian Federation:  The collapse of the railway bridge was sabotage, so a criminal case was opened.

Belgorod Governor:  As a result of a fire at a facility of the Russian Defense Ministry in the Belgorod region, one local resident was injured.  Half an hour before the smoke appeared near Belgorod, helicopters were circling over the city.

Bloomberg:  Germany may end its dependence on Russian oil by the end of summer, according to the latest report from German Ministry of Economy; an oil embargo with a sufficient transitional period will be manageable.  The FRG has reportedly struck a deal with Poland to import oil through a Polish port in the Baltic.

The United States has introduced a general resolution that will allow the country's Аrmed Forces to be used to protect the territorial integrity of Ukraine if Putin aggravates the war.

Turkish Foreign Minister:   Turkish President is ready to visit Moscow together with Brazilian President and other leaders of several countries to help resolve the situation in Ukraine.

Brussels Mayor visits seriously wounded Ukrainian evacuees who are being treated in Lviv.

Gazeta. Pl:  Foreign Policy Adviser to President,  Warsaw became the first capital among potential guarantor states that publicly announced that it would not participate in a peace agreement that would provide for the surrender of part of the territory of Ukraine.

MTV3 TV:  Finland plans to start building fences on the border with the Russian Federation — said commander of the border guard of North Karelia.

Bild am Sonntag:  Germany will supply tanks to Ukraine only if other countries do so as well, the principle for the supply of weapons should be - "all or no one." This was stated by German Chancellor, “I make my decisions quickly and coordinate them with our allies.  But I am suspicious of Germany's hasty and unilateral actions,” he said.  He also announced the risk of a global food crisis and famine due to Russia's war in Ukraine.  ""We already have to worry that there are people who will starve, that there are countries that can no longer afford grain. This whole war situation is leading to global famine,"" Scholz said.

The Times:  Ukrainian intelligence claims that Russian Federation has developed clear plans for invading Moldova.  “We believe that the Kremlin has already decided to attack Moldova. The fate of Moldova is very important. If Russians start taking control there, we will become an easy target militarily, and the threat to Ukraine will become existential,” the source says.

Mediaset:  Russian Foreign Minister The Russian Federation does not require Zelenskyi to surrender, but “he must order an end the resistance.  Moscow has no goal to change the Kyiv regime.  More than $300 billion was actually stolen from Russia, most of it was received for gas and oil supplies.

The Sun tabloid:  In the nearest future, Putin is waiting for a surgical intervention.  Doctors insist on surgical treatment.  The material says that Putin has Parkinson's disease and schizoaffective disorder.  Power for some time will pass to Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Security Council.  Patrushev, 70, is considered a key architect of Ukraine's military strategy and the man who convinced Putin to go to war.

Rallies in support of Ukraine were held in Madrid, Palma de Majorca, Barcelona, St. Petersburg, Verona, Tenerife, Zagreb, Valencia, Lisbon

The Washington Post:  Western artillery entering Ukraine will change the war with Russia.

According to the Polish border guards, about 1 million people have returned from Poland to Ukraine since the beginning of the war. 

Czech President:  Russians turned out to be more aggressive than I thought.  In his opinion, Putin succumbed to the illusion that the Russian army is one of the strongest.  “I think that each country defends its national interests, but these interests are short-term and long-term. And the Russians - and I admit, to my surprise and the surprise of many other politicians - turned out to be completely irrational, unpredictable, more aggressive and less European than  I thought."

At night, two explosions thundered in the Bilhorod region of Russia, there was no destruction or injuries, the governor of the region said.

UN World Food Program:  Russia has blocked about 4 million tons of grain in Ukrainian ports.

ARD:  Germany is campaigning for an embargo on Russian oil within the EU, - German Foreign Minister.  We are campaigning within the EU so that now the whole of Europe refuses oil in accordance with the 6th EU sanctions package.

The New York Times:  The businessman Oleg Tinkov, who spoke out against the war: "I was forced to sell a stake in Tinkoff Bank for a penny because of my statements."

USAID:  "Russia is trying to say that sanctions are causing high food prices. It's not like that at all. This is caused by Russia's gratuitous invasion of Ukraine and its unwillingness to now sit down at the negotiating table and withdraw from Ukraine.  The consequences of the war in Ukraine are comparable to the consequences of a world war."

A journalist from the German TV channel ZDF reports that three EU countries have withdrawn their veto on the oil embargo against Russia. These are Austria, Hungary and Slovakia.

Polish Ministry of Defense:  Military exercises Defender Europe 2022 and Swift Response 2022 will be held in Poland.  About 18,000 military personnel from more than 20 countries will take part in them. They will take place from 1 to 27 May.

State Duma Chairman:  All heads of states supplying weapons to Ukraine should be held accountable as war criminals.

NDTV:  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz plans to invite Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a guest to the G7 leaders' summit.  He is trying to change the position of several states that still remain "neutral" in relation to Russia after its attack on Ukraine.

Malay Mail:  According to the South Korean government, car deliveries to Russia fell by 97.3% in the first 25 days of last month, while deliveries of Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis auto parts and metal products fell by 87.4% and 89.2%, respectively.

Bloomberg:  Hungarian Minister Gergel Gulyash said that Budapest would veto any European proposal that would limit energy imports from Russia.

Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Internal Rules, a member of the US Congress:  "We need to find a way to help Ukraine organise a humanitarian corridor that will allow them to transport food by sea to help the poorest people in the world".

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have criticized Wimbledon's decision to exclude players from Russia and Belarus from this year's tournament following the Russian invasion.

British actor, 82-year-old Ian McKellen, known for his role as the magician Gandalf in The Lord of the Rings, arrived in Ukraine. The star was noticed in Lviv, where he took a selfie with a fan.

NATIONAL

Glavred:   Ukrainian forces using long range guided shells eliminated Russian General Andrey Simonov near Izyum. 

Security Service of Ukraine eliminated a Russian secret subversive group, which was about to shoot down a passenger plane over the territory of Russia or Belarus.

Prosecutor General of Ukraine:  9,158 proceedings related purely to Russian war crimes have been already started, but every day there are grounds for opening new cases.

Gas transmission system Operator of Ukraine:   Ukraine will get access to the liquefied gas terminals from Poland and Lithuania.  "In the coming days, a tanker with a cargo of liquefied LNG for Poland will arrive at the LNG terminal in Klapeda. And after the completion of the Poland-Slovakia interconnector this summer, Poland and the Baltic countries will be receiving from LNG terminals as well as Ukraine

 "State Special Communications Service:  “Ukraine is still under a lot of pressure in cyberspace from Russian hackers. However, perhaps their potential has already reached its maximum.”

Ukraine Finance Minister:  The frozen assets of the Russian Federation will not be delivered to Ukraine in the near future.  According to him, decisions on frozen assets are made by the governments of those countries where these assets are frozen.  “I can’t say yet that these funds will go to Ukraine in the near future. I know that such work is being carried out in Canada and the USA. In Europe, this is somewhat more difficult, but I’m sure that they will also join this process as soon as possible."

Adviser to the President's Office of Ukraine:  Accelerated mobilization is actively taking place in Russia, even among those who do not have combat experience.  "Mostly the social bottom is being recruited.  Those few thousand that we observe are declassed elements, outcasts. The maximum they are given is the helmet from the year 1943, the machine gun of the 47' and off they go."

A petition to introduce visas for Russian citizens on the website of the President of Ukraine gained 25 thousand votes - now it must be considered by Volodimir Zelensky.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 10:55 am: 

·       In 24 hours, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liquidated 300 Russian soldiers, destroyed 22 tanks, 48 combat vehicles, 8 artillery pieces, 1 air defense, 26 aircraft, 13 UAVs, and 28 pieces of military equipment.

·       - In the Popasna, Russia strengthened its positions by moving one battalion tactical group from the Mariupol.

·       Russian troops were shelling the Lyman-Siversk line.

·       The main efforts of the Russian troops were concentrated on taking Rubizhne under full control and preparing for an offensive on Severodonetsk.

·       Russian troops were shelling the Senkivka area of the Chernihiv Oblast.

·       Offensive operations of the Russian troops continue in the directions of Izium-Barvinkovo and Izium-Sloviansk.

British intelligence:  At the start of the conflict, Russia committed over 120 battalion tactical groups, approximately 65 per cent of its entire ground combat strength.  It is likely that more than a quarter of these units have now been rendered combat ineffective.  Some of Russia's most elite units, including the VDV Airborne Forces, have suffered the highest levels of attrition. It will probably take years for Russia to reconstitute these forces.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:  Today, at dawn, two Russian Raptor-type boats were destroyed with the help of Bayraktar drones near Snake Island (the Odesa region)

New York Times:  Head of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Valerii Herasymov visited Izium.  However, he managed to leave before the Ukrainian military attacked Russian positions.

DONBAS

Luhansk Regional Military Administration

·       In total, on May 1, the cities and villages of the region suffered 18 times from Russian shelling. Officially recorded destruction of 28 houses.  3 dead and 3 wounded, including a 12-year-old child residents of Zolote, Lisichansk and Popasna.

·       Driver of the humanitarian bus that was shelled in Popasna, Mykhailo Pankov, was captured by Russian troops

Donetsk Regional Military Administration

·       The plans of the Russian Federation for military successes in May in the Donetsk region are broken, - said the head.  "The enemy cannot advance in their attacks, but continues to fire on civilians."

·       4 residents of the city of Lyman were killed by Russian shelling on May 1. Another 11 people were wounded: 7 in Lyman, 3 in Volodymirivka and 1 in Yarova

·       100 civilians were evacuated from Azovstal yesterday.  Evacuations are expected to continue today or tomorrow.

·       Russian soldiers started distributing propaganda in Mariupol saying the city is under their control

In Liman, the Donetsk Oblast, a fire broke out in Artiom Palace of Culture after a Russian missile attack.  The building had the largest community bomb shelter there.  People managed to escape.

KHARKIV

Kharkiv Regional Military Administration:  

·       ”3 dead and 8 wounded as a result of shelling by Russian troops in the Kharkiv region today

·       Russians shelled residential areas of Kharkiv, in particular Saltivka. Bohodukhiv, Zolochev, Mala Danylivka were shelled in the region.      

Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense: All of the hospitals in Balakliya in the Kharkiv region are filled with wounded Russians, and medical personnel are forced to treat them, leaving local residents without help.  In addition, the Volchansk anti-tuberculosis out clinic, patients with tuberculosis are denied medical care, and the premises of the dispensary are filled with wounded soldiers of the Russian Federation.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Zaporozhia Regional Military Administration: 

·       With the support of the UN and the Red Cross, a "green corridor" between Mariupol and Zaporozhye was agreed upon today. Columns of buses will go through Tokmak and Vasylivka."

·       Russian troops shelled Orekhov, residential buildings were damaged.  As a result of Russian shelling, four people were taken to hospitals with injuries of varying severity, and two more men died from shrapnel wounds.

Russians are stealing agricultural machinery from the temporarily occupied territories of Kherson and sending it to Crimea. Video from followers.

Kherson Regional Military Administration:  There will not be a Kherson National Republic because the Russians need at least polling stations.  Now there are even not enough collaborators in the region even to form a government let alone polling stations.

Russian soldiers raised the flag of the USSR in Melitopol.

Ministry of Digital Development:  Ukrainian Mobile signal is being retored in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions

Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration: 

·       Russian troops once again shelled the outskirts of Mykolaiv from Uragan Multiple Launch Rocket System. Private houses and a yard were damaged.

REST OF UKRAINE

Dnipro Regional Council: 

·       Two rockets flew into Mezhevskaya, adjacent to the Donetsk region. Information about the scale of destruction is unknown.

·       A rocket was fired at Sinelnikov district.  It hit a grain elevator. Destroyed a grain warehouse. No casualties.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis