Bob Homans Sitrep March 27

20220328

Ukraine – 3/27 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
March 27, 2022

Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate – One of the last remaining Russian “politically exposed persons” who, to the best of my knowledge, has not been subjected to Western sanctions is Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate.   Kirill is being willingly used to justify to the Russian People the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the criminal behavior of the Russian troops who are in Ukraine.   Kirill should be subjected to Western sanctions for this and the following additional reasons:

·       Kirill is a billionaire - Like several other Russian oligarchs now under Western Sanctions, Kirill is a billionaire.  In fact, Kirill is a thoroughly corrupt billionaire.   Kirill made his money during his time as Metropolitan of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, where he controlled cigarette smuggling.   Even today, Kirill is known in some circles as the “Tobacco Metropolitan.”  If being a corrupt Russian oligarch is a criterion for the West imposing sanctions then, for this reason alone Kirill qualifies.

·       Kirill is likely laundering money for Putin, or at least he’s in the position to do so – Through the financial networks Kirill controls, as Patriarch, Kirill is well placed to help Putin avoid sanctions by using the Moscow Patriarchate’s financial network to move money outside of Russia and, through cooperating Patriarchates in other Eastern Orthodox countries, into the Western financial system.

·       Kirill is a Russian Government Official – The Moscow Patriarchate is nothing more than an organ of the Russian State.  During Putin’s annual “State of Russia” speech, Kirill sits in the front row.   Every member of the Russian Duma has now been sanctioned, along with many Ministers.   Kirill, as effective Head of the Russian Ministry of Religion, qualifies.

Departure From Russia of the Oil Service Companies – A few days ago, I mentioned the departure from Russia of the oil services companies Halliburton, Baker Hughes and Schlumberger, and a report that their departure may well cost Russia up to 50% of its current oil production.   Last Friday, I spoke to a friend of mine with expertise in Venezuela.   He said that when the oil services companies left Venezuela that, along the firing of most Venezuelan technical experts, reduced Venezuela’s oil production by 2/3rds.   I am in favor of sanctioning Russian oil exports, but the sanctioning has effectively begun.

Killing of Russian General Officers – Since the start of the war, there have been at least 6 confirmed killings of Russian Army generals.  The likely reason is a combination of a breakdown in tactical communications and inability of Russian junior and non-commissioned officers to make tactical decisions on their own, without first obtaining permission from headquarters.  Without reliable tactical communications, Russian general officers must go to the front lines to issue orders, where there are often killed by Ukrainian snipers, or possibly even by their own men.

For the past 17 years, or as far back as I’m aware of, U.S. training of Ukrainian units have emphasized the importance of raising the authority of non-commissioned officers, especially giving them the ability to make command decisions on their own.   During the duration of this war, we’re seeing that training pay off.

3/27 Sitrep -

Any comments of mine in this Section are in bold face

National - Russian forces along the entire front opened by the February 24th Invasion are retreating to rearm and replace lost and wounded soldiers.  Russian forces in Donbas have managed to keep the front established in 2014 and haven’t finished depleting their forces with pointless attacks against Ukrainian military defenses.  No retreat and no advance there.

Armenia asked Russia to live up to its promise that a Russian peace force will shield Armenia from further attacks by Azerbaijan.  Apparently Russian peacekeepers are not executing orders.  If Russia responds it will be another active front that Russia must address.

The rearming and replacing the dead is moving at an equivalent pace to the capture of Kyiv.  Rearming attacking divisions with tanks, armored personnel carriers, and other equipment has bogged down.  The reason is that Russia found that 90% of the equipment in the Russian reserve is not functional. 

Apparently Russian military commanders have been lying to their subordinates, and that information regarding the operational status of reserve equipment has been passed to Russia’s commander in chief, Putin.  There is a strong possibility that Russia’s central military command and operational units have been pilfering equipment maintenance funds.  Bringing the thousands of tanks and other military gear into service will be extremely difficult, as the Russian military industrial complex has already shuttered new manufacture due to lack of parts.

Repairing Russian Armored Vehicles - Ukraine’s situation regarding restoring damaged Russian military equipment back into service is exactly the opposite.  Unlike Russia, where the restoration is at government defense factories and repair shops, Ukraine’s restoration is taking place at farm workshops.  The shops and mechanics who man them have had more than ten years of training, from companies like John Deere, Klaas, Agco, and others, on how to maintain electronically sophisticated modern heavy tractors and combines.  There are dozens of these workshops in every county along the front.  As soon as Russia started losing and abandoning military equipment Ukrainian farmers have been hauling it away and repairing it. 

Before Russia can begin restoration, it will, just like any other bureaucracy first find who to blame, and request permission.  This takes time.

Ukraine’s volunteer workshops have no shortage of parts as there are plenty of vehicles to cannibalize for spare parts.  They have been restoring Russian armor since the beginning of the invasion.

Before Russia can begin cannibalization, they will need an order from above telling them to do this.  Before they can implement the order, they will need budget.  We expect that Russia will start releasing equipment from its reserves in another 4 to 5 weeks.

The amount of equipment released will be heavily dependent on how many heavy-duty batteries are left in the Russian military reserve.  Line mechanics and workers in the Russian military industrial complex are not complicit in theft of funds.  But it is likely that they have been selling tank batteries as tank batteries can be used on other heavy equipment.  If the boss is stealing, why shouldn’t I?  After all officers will not look under the hood of the tank at the battery and motor.

Replacement Soldiers - The other problem is finding recruits to replace dead and wounded soldiers.  Crimea represents a microcosm of this problem.  As mentioned, a few weeks back Russian colonists in Crimea are fleeing the peninsula driving down property prices.  Property prices are continuing to fall there.  One reason they are fleeing is that these Russian residents of Crimea don’t want to be pressed into military service.

Excluding colonists, long term Crimean residents are disenchanted with Russian rule, because their economic conditions have been deteriorating ever since Russian annexation.  A very small elite of Crimean quislings have benefited.  Press ganging among the disenchanted will probably not provide recruits with high morale.

Press ganging will further exacerbate the already low level of operational effectiveness of Russian forces.  Russia’s recruiting problems in Crimea are the same everywhere.  Ukraine faces the exact opposite issue.  Too many qualified ex-military people trying to volunteer to fight.

If Russian forces stop retreating and attempt a second round of attacks, they will face an even better equipped, higher number of trained dedicated forces whose only ambition is to kill Russian soldiers.  The first attacks were a fiasco, the second round will be a tragic comedy.

Russian soldiers returning to Belarus, and new arrivals, are being arrested by their own for trading their food and fuel for alcohol.

Ukrainian military intelligence reports that between fifty and one hundred wounded soldiers are sent daily to each of the military hospitals in Simferopol and Sevastopol in Crimea.  County hospitals in the northern counties of Crimea are full of wounded, they are having problems in accepting new arrivals, and they’re transferring existing patients to hospitals away from the Ukrainian frontier.

British intelligence indicates that Russians are increasingly relying on long term missiles because Russian pilots are afraid of being shot down.  Britain’s foreign Minister said that sanctions on Russia may be lifted once it stops the war, fully leaves Ukraine, and provides guarantees there will be no further aggression.  I don’t believe that it is possible to rely on any Russian guarantees.

Ukraine’s government has opened a portal for citizens to begin registering material and physical damage suffered as a result of the invasion.  This should help in shortening delivery time for reconstruction aid.

Ukraine’s prosecutor general said that since the start of the invasion 12 journalist have been killed and ten wounded.

Traffic through the Bosphorus was halted yesterday after seamen reported a floating mine.  Russia claims that the appearance of mines in the Black Sea is the work of Ukraine.  However Ukraine lacks vessels that can lay sea mines and Ukrainian naval vessels have not left port from the start of the invasion.

Russian fire has damaged the second Holocaust memorial in Ukraine.

REGIONAL

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense said that half of Russian forces, those on the right bank of the Dnipro, that had been trying to enter Kyiv are retreating to Chernobyl and, after a pause, moving to Belarus to take on new soldiers and equipment.  However, artillery and ballistic missile formations remain behind, and shelling of Kyiv suburbs continues.

There are now twenty-one forest fires in forests around the Chernobyl Nuclear Sarcaphagus and the danger of radioactive particles raised by the fire entering the atmosphere is high.

Retreating Russian forces temporarily occupied the city of Slavutych, Kyiv Oblast.  After civilian demonstrations asking the Russians to leave, and negotiations with the Mayor, they left the city.  They also left two check points in the city.

There are reports that the City of Chernihiv, approximately 100KM north of Kyiv is surrounded.   Much of Chernihiv is a UNESCO World Heritage Site, containing many churches that are several hundred years old, many of which contain beautiful frescoes.  They survived WW-II, but it is unclear how many of these churches have been damaged or destroyed.

Ukrainian forces drove Russian occupiers out of Trostianets, Sumy Oblast yesterday.  Upon taking the city the first order was to distribute food and medicine, evacuate those that lost their homes, and begin demining operations.  The mayor of Trostianets indicated that the biggest problem is demining the local hospital.  Utility services are being restored.  The village of Husarivka in Kharkiv Oblast was also freed of occupiers.

Russian shells landed, again, near the nuclear research facility in Kharkiv.

Kharkiv initiated a series of classical musical concerts in its bomb shelters.  Kharkiv metro stations which hold large numbers of shelter seekers is the main venue for these concerts.

Russian forces took the mayor and deputy Mayor of Balaklii, Kharkiv Oblast last night.  There current whereabouts are not known.

Russian forces in Donbas made seven sorties from behind the lines they held from the beginning of this war, and all were beaten back.  During the attacks they lost, eight tanks, 8 armored personnel carriers, 3 trucks and one heavy mortar.  The Russian attack on Popasno was halted by friendly fire.  Count of number killed, and wounded is underway.

Russian artillery fire hit a school in the Village of Lisichanska, Luhansk Oblast and an ambulance depot in Severodonetsk.  Another 8 apartment buildings and five homes were hit in the cities of Lisichansk, Severodonetsk and Rybizhno.  32 communities, 12 of which have partial, and 20 no electricity.  5 communities have partial gas supply, and 22 fully cut off.  Six homes were destroyed by fires and there were 15 grass fires.  Water supply is intermittent in all communities in the Oblast.

Russia dropped Phosphorus bombs on Avidiivka, Donetsk Oblast.  Christopher Miller, a Buzzfeed journalist captured their explosion on camera.  Dropping phosphorus bombs constitutes a war crime.   Christopher Miller is one of the most experienced and intrepid journalists covering the 8-year long war in Ukraine.

The Mayor of Mariupol issued a statement regarding Russian encirclement of the Ukrainian city.  He talked about the consequences of the Russian attack on city from the fifth day of the war.  Although currently encircled the city is still capable of defending itself.  In his words the city has lost 60% of its housing, has no direct communication links with the outside world leaving its remaining citizens devoid of information, is without electricity, gas, and has intermittent access to water.  However, city defenses and the morale of its defenders is high, and he expects Ukrainian forces will soon break the siege of the city.

The mayor estimates that Russian forces have forcibly deported between 20,000 to 30,000 of its citizens.  The deportation is focused on women and children.

Russian forces, that halted a convoy of four thousand people fleeing Mariupol for the last two days, released them and allowed the convoy to proceed to Zaporizhia.

Territorial defense forces have freed two small communities in Zaporizhia of Russian invaders.

Russian rockets hit a fuel storage base in Dubno, Rivno Oblast

Ukrainian air defense shot down three rockets aimed at targets in Volyn Oblast.

Six Russian rockets hit the outskirts of Lviv.  The rockets caused a fire at an industrial site, five people wounded but no deaths.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

https://play.tavr.media/radiobayraktar/