Bob Homans sitrep March 15

20220315

Bob Homans daily sitrep.  Please subscribe directly

WhatsApp - +1-207-513-0774 US Office - +703-519-1211 US Mobile - +1-207-513-0774

Ukraine – 3/15 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans
March 15, 2022

This morning a high-rise apartment building located near the building where we live in Kyiv, in a neighborhood called Vynograda, was destroyed by a Russian missile.  The destroyed building is located 2 bus stops from our place.  The Irpin River and a forest, where I used to go cross-country skiing, separates Vynograda from Irpin and Bucha, where extensive street fighting continues.   Over the last several years Vynograda has been the location of extensive new residential developments.  There is a planned extension of the Metro “Green Line” to Vynograda, as well as new markets and a new health club.

March 15th Sitrep –

As usual, any comments of mine will be shown in bold face.

Two videos of Russian armor being destroyed:

The video of Russian armor getting hit while transiting a road through a forest may be remnants of the 30-mile-long column that was disbursed a few days ago.

TO date colleagues from Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova as well as South Korea let me know that they and the public in their countries were opposed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  I am not including colleagues and friends from North and South America, and the EU because there are too many countries to list.  However, the depth of anti-Russian sentiment in former Soviet states, except for South Korea and Mongolia is growing and hardening.

An illustrative anecdote, which may be true, is making the rounds in Ukraine.  “Four Russian tanks were passing through a village, when their commander brought the column to a halt.  The commander ordered the crew to siphon the fuel from two tanks to fuel up the other two.  The refueled tanks turned around and went back for more fuel.  When the tanks and crews left the villagers came out and put Ukrainian flags on the two left behind.  When the tanks returned the commander mistook these tanks as Ukrainian tanks and they were destroyed.  When they got closer, they realized these were the two tanks they left behind.  The commander decided to continue, and they passed through the village until they came to the river.  They proceeded to cross the bridge which was meant for a maximum five tons.  Halfway across the bridge collapsed under the weight of the 30 ton tank. The lead tank went headfirst into the river.  Failing to pull it out the commander decided to look for another place to ford the river.  As they travelled along the riverbank, the bank gave out and the remaining tank fell sideways killing three of the Russians travelling on top of the tank.  The remaining Russians got out and kept going on foot abandoning all four tanks and their dead compatriots.” 

Whether this is a true story, or an anecdote remains to be seen, but just the same yesterday President Zelensky thanked the Russian federation for supplying arms and equipment to fight the Russian invasion.  To date Ukrainians have captured over 30 battle worthy tanks, the same number of armored personnel carriers, four mobile electronic war units, three anti-aircraft batteries, three ballistic location radars, and six trucks full of munitions.  The captured equipment has more than offset Ukrainian losses, in tanks, armored personnel carriers and mobile anti-aircraft batteries.

Russian forces were unable to advance in any direction but continued indiscriminate shelling, bombing and rocket and cruise missile attacks on civilian infrastructure.  Following unsuccessful attempts to land paratrooper aircraft in the first two days of the invasion, and the recent confirmed refusal of marines to undertake an amphibious landing at Odesa, the Russian attack is limited to ground and air forces, as they attempt to secure sites within artillery range of Kyiv, necessary to establish fire bases. 

The theoretically vastly superior Russian air force has proven to be equally incompetent to its ground forces failing to establish air superiority.  Ukraine’s air defense command claims four attack helicopters, one fighter bomber and one tactical attack drone were destroyed yesterday.

Yesterday Russian artillery hit a ten floor apartment building and a home in the city of Kyiv, in the Podil district of the city.  A civilian evacuation column from Hostomel, an airport and city north of Kyiv came under fire and a civilian was killed.

Sporadic skirmishes occurred in Boryspil, Brovary, Velykodymyrska and Kalinivka and street fignting continues around the outskirts of Irpin, a Kyiv satellite community.   The Russians will need to secure these towns, and the surrounding territory, to bring up artillery and rocket launchers within range of Kyiv.   So far, it appears that Russia hasn’t come close to succeeding.

Northern Ukraine – In Chernihiv, artillery fire hit apartment housing, a closed farmers market, Chernihiv Polytechnical Institute, a water pumping station, and a food warehouse.  Rubble from collapsed housing has not been fully removed but ten civilians were killed, and final tally will come after rubble is fully cleared.

Russia has opened field command posts in Boromli and Trostianets Sumy Oblast, have begun kidnapping civilians.  It is not clear whether they intend to ransom the civilians like common criminals or to use them for exchanges for their POWs.  Today civilian evacuation is planned to continue from Hostomel, Bucha and Irpin Kyiv Oblast, Chernihiv city, and the cities of Sumy, Konotop, Lebedyn, Shostka, and Trostianets Sumy Oblast.

Electricity was fully restored to the Chernobyl nuclear site enabling full operation of cooling ponds containing spent fuel and other highly radioactive waste.

In Kharkiv a bus of volunteers was hit by Russian fire and one person was killed and another was injured.  Sporadic fighting and skirmishes in continue in Izium, Chuhuyev and Derhachakh Kharkiv Oblast.

Southern Ukraine

Russian attacks on Mykolaiv yesterday were rebuffed.  The deputy mayor of Mykolaiv estimates the Russians lost 150 soldiers, two tanks,7 troop trucks and one armored personnel carrier.

160 cars were able to leave Mariupol yesterday and they made their way to Zaporizhia.  This was the first evacuation column to leave Mariupol since the city was encircled 5 days ago. 

The mayor of Melitopol, who was kidnapped by Russian soldiers four days ago was transferred to occupied Donbas.  No date for release or explanation for the kidnapping has been given by Russian forces. 

Donbas

Armed Russian soldiers surrounded Melitopol’s central city square to prevent citizens from gathering to protest the Russian occupiers.  Two protestors were seized and driven away by the Russians.  Their whereabouts are not known.

Yesterday we informed you that the mayor of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast estimated 2,000 civilian deaths.  Yesterday his deputy came out with a correction that the civilian death tally reached 20,000.  The mayor was referring to 2,000 deaths in one day.

A Russian attempt to break out of occupied Donbas was beaten back yesterday.  The Russians had over casualties, lost two tanks, and four armored personnel carriers.  During the day Ukrainian artillery fire destroyed a Russian supply column of ten trucks.  Other communities in Donetsk Oblast – particularly Avdiivka and Mariinka are constantly being shelled.

Russian artillery fire yesterday destroyed a boarding school for blind children, damaged a hospital and three other schools in Rybizno Luhansk Oblast.  Four people died because of the shelling.  The head of Luhansk Oblast administration said that Russian shelling of communities in the Oblast is continuing nonstop, and that there are serious fires from the shelling in the communities of Severo-Donestk, Popasno, and Rybizno.  He indicated that there is a significant amount of unexploded ordinance lying in the streets.  According to him volunteers, medical personnel, utilities workers and others are working 24/7 and are on the verge of collapse.

Western Ukraine

1700 civilians were evacuated from Lisichansk and Popasno yesterday.

Yesterdays bombing of the Rivno broadcasting tower has led to 19 casualties.  Television and Radio services have been restored to the Oblast.

Ukraine’s “2nd Front - Ukrainians second front, the war on corruption saw significant backsliding.  The Zelensky government introduced legislation cancelling public government procurement tenders for the duration of the war and ninety days after its conclusion.  This allows the government to pick winners.  In theory quick procurement is needed during war, but for Ukraine, this is another Zelensky step in dismantling anti-corruption institutions.

Since 2014, war has been a convenient excuse for Ukraine’s leaders to delay, or backslide, on reforms.   Former President Poroshenko often used this excuse for slow-walking reform of the Judiciary.   It seems that under Pres. Zelenskyy not much has changed in this regard.

Shoygu’s Instructions Re. Russian Prisoners –

Yesterday we mentioned that Shoygu, the Russian Defense Minister, issued an order dismissing all Russian prisoners from the Russian Army.   This will likely have impacts on both the soldiers themselves and their families.   Once they’re repatriated to Russia, perhaps as part of a prisoner exchange, the soldiers will likely be subject to arrest.   In addition, soldiers and their families will likely no longer receive pay or pension payments.

Below is a screenshot of the news of Shoygu’s ordeer, and it comes from a viber channel called Molnya – or lightning.  The command was issued on March 10 and the information below is in Ukrainian and Russian.  On the Viber Channel, whose link is below, there are plenty of interviews with Russian POWs and several intercepted phone calls between Russians that are active invaders and their mothers, friends or wives.

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

In summary, today the Russian Army appears to be behaving like a child having a bad tantrum when things don’t go well.   They flail around, sending columns into areas where there is no exit, and without infantry or tactical air support they’re often chopped up by Ukrainians armed with anti-tank rockets.  At the same time, they’re doing a lot of damage and killing innocent civilians in the process, much as a child might behave during a tantrum, opening pantry doors and randomly smashing china and glassware.   This is not how a professional army is expected to operate.

Will any of the destruction lead Russia to their professed goal, namely installing a puppet government, and the concurrent disarming of Ukraine’s military.   Without achieving this goal, there is no victory for Russia.   Even if Russia manages to install a puppet government, they must protect it, a task that experts believe will require at least 500,000 Russian troops.   The instant Russia either lifts this protection or shows that it cannot sufficiently protect their puppet government, the puppet government will fall.

Maybe will see the tantrum end, and a professional army emerge, that is capable to achieving objectives demanded by their leaders will emerge.  Time will tell but, for Russia, time is running out.