Bob Homans sitrep for March 8

20220309

      Ukraine – 3/8 Sitrep
      The Transformation of Ukraine’s Military
      Effective Use of Marinated Tomatoes
      By: Robert Homans
      March 8, 2022

Just as military formations need to regroup from time to time, so does my friend in Ukraine, without whom I would not have been able to send the emails I’ve been.   

Instead, I would like to take this opportunity to describe the transformation of Ukraine’s military, from February 2014, at the point when Russia invaded Crimea, when Ukraine’s Army had only 6,000 combat-ready soldiers, until today when the Russian Army will seemingly do anything to avoid directly engaging the Ukrainian Army and, instead, rely on terror tactics directed at civilians.   It is important to understand how the transformation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces took place.   This is an excellent article describing the transformation of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, written by someone who was directly involved.  

What we’re seeing today is no surprise to those, including myself, who have continually observed the transformation of Ukraine’s Armed forces.   As this article says, it has taken 8 years.   Here are some key events:

February 2014 – Over his term as President, from January 2010 until February 2014 when he fled Ukraine during the Revolution of Dignity, Viktor Yanukovich gutted the Ukrainian Armed Forces.   Lately, we’ve heard a lot about Ukraine needing more MiG 29s.  In February 2014 Ukraine sold 4 of its MiG 29s to Chad.   It’s uncertain where the sale proceeds went.   At the same time, Ukraine sold military hardware of all types to various countries, to the point that Ukraine in 2014, with one of the largest arms industries in the world, had an army with almost no equipment.   The Yanukovich Administration reportedly destroyed the draft records, making it impossible, in the early days, for Ukraine to establish and conduct a draft.

Spring 2014 through September 2014 – The volunteer battalions, formed during the Revolution of Dignity, were transferred into the Ukrainian Army.   Without the benefit of formal training they, along with volunteers, retook much of Donbas from the Russians and their proxies.   The Ukrainian Army was close to retaining all of Donbas, when units of the regular Russian Army counterattacked.   The Ukrainian Army was defeated at a town not far from Donetsk City called Illovaisk.   Similar to what has happened just recently, with Russians agreeing to safe corridors out of Mariupol, the Russians agreed to a safe corridor for Ukrainian soldiers whom they trapped in Illovaisk.   After disarming them, Russians opened fire on the departing Ukrainians.   The defeat at Illovaisk led to the signing of the first of the 2 Minsk Agreements.

2014/15 – New Military Traditions Established –

·       Crowdfunding - In 2014 and 2015, the Ukrainian Armed Forces relied heavily on crowdfunding, almost exclusively from Ukrainian civilians.   Crowdfunding was an extension of the financing of the Revolution of Dignity, again almost exclusively from Ukrainians.  A vivid example of the involvement of civilians in supporting the Ukrainian Armed Forces came in late 2014/early 2015, during the battle for the Donetsk Airport where civilians driving personal pickup trucks, often through hostile fire, re-supplied the Ukrainian defenders.  Another example was Ulana Suprun, a medical doctor from Detroit of Ukrainian descent.   She came to Ukraine to help.  She was able to acquire acquired NATO standard first aid kits, and trained soldiers how to use them.   This was critical, as many of the casualties in the early days of the fighting resulted from bleeding out.   Suprun later became Minister of Health of Ukraine.

·       Civilian Control of the Military - The amount of support the Ukrainian Armed Forces got from civilians during this period, led to strict civilian control of the military.   One individual who has been instrumental in this transformation is Anna Kovalenko, who was a commander of a women’s volunteer battalion during the Revolution of Dignity.   After the Revolution, she spent several months at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, studying the experience in the U.S. and other countries, she served as an adviser to the Minister of Defense, and she is now a Member of Ukraine’s Parliament.

·       Improved Authority for Non-Commissioned and Junior Officers – The transformation of Ukraine’s non-commissioned and junior officer corps started as far back as 2005, or earlier, with the arrival of American advisers whose mission it was to improve the status of non-commissioned and junior officers in Ukraine’s military.   The performance of Ukraine’s Armed Forces today could not have happened without the ability of non-commissioned and junior officers to make command decisions on their own.   The performance of Ukraine’s territorial defense forces, and the evident coordination with the regular Army, would not be possible if it wasn’t for this transformation.   Ukraine is winning almost every direct encounter with the Russian Army precisely because of the performance of formations at the company level and below.

February 2015 – Debacle at Debaltseve – Debaltseve is a city in Donetsk Oblast, that is a road and rail junction.  The Ukrainian Army attempted to take Debaltseve, and thereby split the Donetsk Peoples’ Republic from the Luhansk People’s Republic.   Ukraine suffered a major defeat, leading directly to the signing of the Minsk II Agreement.   The narrative that continues to exist today, that the Ukrainian Army was no match for the Russians, began because of the defeats at Illovaisk and Debaltseve.

2015 – Present – The continued development of Ukraine’s military was assisted by three factors: combat experience; improved and continued training; improved equipment.

·       Combat Experience – Since the Spring of 2014, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been fighting Russians and their proxies along a line of contacting, separating the 2 breakaway republics from Ukraine proper.

·       Improved and Continued Training – The training center and Yaroviv, in Western Ukraine, has been instrumental in the training of large portions of the Ukrainian Army.   Yarovivi is staffed by personnel from the U.S. Army, as well as the U.K., Canada and other European countries.   Yaroviv has also served as a place where Ukrainian servicemen trained their Western counterparts, in areas such as countering Russia’s electronic warfare capabilities, infantry tactics, etc.

·       Better Equipment – Ukraine has received substantial support from Western countries, including lethal defensive weapons.  At the same time Ukraine’s arms industry has transformed itself, to produce improve tanks, aircraft engines and anti-ship missiles.   Many of the Turkish drones, used to such great effect against Russia, are powered by engines produced in Ukraine.

The transformation of Ukraine’s Armed Forces has failed to change the pre-war narrative, held by many Western governments and much of the U.S. media, that the invasion of Ukraine would be a walkover.   The persistence of this narrative may have influenced the decision by the Biden Administration to withhold the transfer of Patriot missile batteries to Ukraine.   Patriots would’ve helped protect Ukraine’s cities against the attacks by Russian missiles that have done so much damage.

The irony is that the U.S. Government appeared to have ignored the positive effect of their own advice and assistance, at least as it related to the transformation of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

Effective Use of Marinated Tomatoes – Yesterday, while having a cigarette on the balcony of her Kyiv apartment, a Ukrainian “Babushka” heard a buzzing sound nearby.   Soon she realized that the buzz came from a Russian drone, likely used for artillery spotting.   She reached under her chair, picked up a jar of marinated tomatoes, and she threw the jar, still containing the tomatoes, at the drone.  As describe in this article, she scored a direct hit.   She and her husband went downstairs, recovered the pieces of the downed drone, and threw them in separate garbage cans.

There is no one else in the World who could pull this off, other than Ukrainians.