Bob Homans Sitrep April 25
Ukraine – 4/25 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
April 25, 2022
Visit by Secretaries Blinken and Austin
Key Takeaways (with limited information):
· Approximately $322 million in additional military assistance – Included will be a supply of 152 mm artillery rounds, compatible with Soviet-era howitzers. The U.S., and other NATO countries, are sending 155 mm howitzers common in NATO countries, along with an ample supply of ammunition.
· Re-opening of the U.S. Embassy – Sec. Blinkin announced a limited re-opening of the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv. The U.S. has been criticized for not opening their embassy earlier. I can understand the reluctance of the U.S. The Embassy Chancery sits amidst several residential high-rise buildings. If it would be up to me, I’d be reluctant to re-open because of the possible of collateral damage from a potential Russian strike on the Chancery.
· Appointment of a new U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine – Brigit Brink is the current U.S. Ambassador to Slovakia. She will be the first full-time U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine since the departure of Amb. Marie Yovanovitch in 2019. After Amb. Yovanovitch’s departure, William Taylor served in an interim capacity. I assume that Amb. Brink will be quickly confirmed by the U.S. Senate with near unanimous support. Slovakia has been very supportive of Ukraine, so Amb. Brink will be able to step right into her job.
· Remarks by Defense Secretary Austin - “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” Although well-intentioned, this remark can be construed by Ukrainians as suggesting that Ukraine, at a great price in loss of life and property, is doing NATO’s dirty work by “weakening” Russia so it cannot repeat, in NATO countries, what Russia is currently doing in Ukraine. A clarification is needed here.
Briansk Explosions, and Other Developments
Last night, there were two explosions at oil storage facilities in or near the City of Briansk, Russia, north of the border with Ukraine. One of the facilities that was targeted is connected with the oil pipeline used by Russia to export oil to E.U. countries. The E.U. has been debating the matter of stopping exports of Russian oil, exports that currently supplies Russia with its largest source of hard currency. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility.
There has also been fires and explosions at a variety of facilities in Russia, including a chemical plant east of Moscow and a research facility northeast of Moscow. There have also been several instances of apparent sabotage of rail lines, in both Russia and Belarus.
Today there have been explosions in Transnistria, a Russian-controlled enclave between Moldova and Ukraine. These could very well be a Russian “false flag” operation. Last week, a Russian general stated that one of Russia’s war aims is acquisition of Ukrainian territory along the Black and Azov Seas, that would serve to connect Russia with Transnistria.
For years, Ukrainians have been active in sowing discontent among ethnic minorities living inside Russia, partly conducted by veterans of Euromaidan. One area of activity has been among the ethnic Finns living along Russia’s border with Finland, that includes territory that Finland lost after the 1939 - 1940 Russo – Finnish War. This activity may achieve added significance, now that Finland may be about to join NATO.
Another area of Ukrainian activity is among ethnic minorities living in Siberia. The 64th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, partly responsible for the atrocities in Bucha, comes from Knyaze-Volkonskoye, near Khabarovsk in Eastern Siberia. From his photograph, their commanding officer, recently promoted to Colonel as a reward for his units’ actions in Bucha, appears to be of Asian origin. A substantial portion of the Russian Army fighting in Ukraine is made up of ethnic minorities from Eastern Siberia. Given Russia’s suppression of any accurate news about the war in Ukraine, it’s possible that these peoples have no idea of what their compatriots are actually doing in Ukraine.
Ukraine – 4/25 Sitrep (my comments in bold face)
I grew up in a religious household. Unfortunately for me, my parents were of two different warring Christian confessions. As a result, for as long as I can remember I have had a jaundiced view of organized religion. I viewed religion as irrational argument that justified hurting others.
My cynicism was reinforced by most encounters with clerics and religious based interventions into politics. There were exceptions as I also met truly devout and moral adherents of Christian faiths.
I thought I had reached the apogee of callous indifference to Christian faith when the moral majority started playing a significant role in American politics. As usual I was wrong because an even more hideous form of Christianity, the Russian Orthodox Church, now persecuting Ukraine in God’s name, currently occupies my political horizon.
As we reported a month ago or so, the Russian Orthodox Church was hacked by Anonymous and DDoSecrets. Ukrainian journalists from Slidstvo.Infо have gone through that archive and not surprisingly have started publishing their findings.
Journalist’s found that the Russian Ministry of Emergencies is passing on information on deportees to the clergy, who then find placements for them in churches, monasteries and convents.
The Ministry has been emailing reports on the occupied territories and deportations of Ukrainians to the Russian Orthodox Church’s Synodal Department for Charitable Work. The Ministry also provides the clergy with daily reports on the progress of military action in the occupied territories of Ukraine and on the numbers of Ukrainians being forcibly deported, the routes by which they are being transported, and their time of arrival in Russia.
One of the documents published by Slidstvo.Info discusses "assistance to citizens of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics and Ukraine on the territory of the Russian Federation (as of 6 am on 22 March 2022)". It reports on the total number of "arrivals" to five regions of Russia being "365,697 people, including 76,819 children". According to the document, 21,224 Ukrainian nationals, including 9,931 children, had been placed in 325 "temporary shelters"; the total number of such shelters throughout Russia’s 85 regions was 1,202, with a total capacity of 99,254 people, of which 79% was still available.
The latest email obtained by the journalists (dated 30 March) indicates that close to 490,000 Ukrainians had arrived in Russia, including 100,000 children. The same number of forcibly deported Ukrainians was stated by the Ukrainian Ombudsperson Ludmyla Denysova around the same time.
A resident of Rubizhne, told Slidstvo.Info about her five-day journey through Russia to Estonia and the series of interrogations that she was subjected to while in Russia. According to her, "Those Ukrainians who were unable to escape from Russia after forced deportation (and they constitute the overwhelming majority), after the ‘filtration’ discussions, which are essentially interrogations, with Russian emergency service staff, end up in the second round of filtration – ‘the spiritual one’. Law enforcement authorities that have been fruitfully cooperating with the Russian clergy for a long time, hand these Ukrainians over to monasteries and churches", writes Slidstvo.Info.
Among the correspondence, journalists found one email discussing the need to install surveillance cameras at the shelters. The clergy explained that this was due to security concerns.
We have been advocating that Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate, be sanctioned by the United States, Great Britain, Canada, and the European Union. Initially, our reason was Kirill’s likely complicity in laundering dirty money into the Western financial system, from Russians who have been previously sanctioned. We will now add complicity in war crimes to the list of reasons why Kirill should be sanctioned. The Moscow Patriarchate’s complicity in forcible deportations of approximately 1 million Ukrainians is a war crime.
Last weekend, Hanna Hopko, former Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Verhovna Rada of Ukraine wrote a very eloquent Op-Ed in the “London Times,” arguing why Kirill should be sanctioned. The Op-Ed is included as an attachment to this email. (now a link - Graham) Significantly, in her Op-Ed Hanna Hopko referred to Kirill by his given name. Separately, attached is a cartoon from a recent edition of the “Washington Post.” No further words necessary.
INTERNATIONAL
Heute: Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg believes that Ukraine should not be taken into the EU as a full member. He spoke in favor of "a different path" for Ukraine than full membership.
Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks reacted to the negative position of Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg. "Our ultimate goal is to grant Ukraine the status of an EU candidate this summer! Any EU country that opposes this is pro-Putinist and works against the global interests of the EU," Pabriks said.
Foreign Minister Schallenberg is following in the well-worn footsteps of his predecessor, Karin Kneissl who invited Putin to her wedding, where she danced with Putin and, at the completion of the dance, curtsied to Putin. Perhaps as a result of bowing down to the President of Russia, Karin Kneissl is now on the Board of Rosneft, Russia’s State-owned oil company.
Ombudswoman of Ukraine: Russia’s Parliament plans to force Ukrainian prisoners of war to donate blood for wounded Russians. This is an analogy of Nazi actions in concentration camps during the Second World War, and depicted in the 1943 movie, “The North Star.”
Estonian Ambassador to Ukraine: A Ukrainian school will be opened in Estonia. According to him, there are many teachers in the country who were forced to leave Ukraine, and the total number of Ukrainian refugees in Estonia is 33,000.
Demonstrations in support and against Ukraine occurred in Frankfurt am Main and Oslo. Demonstrations in support of Ukraine in Barcelona, New York City, Berlin, Torun (Poland), San Diego, and in the province of South Tyrol (Italy). A man with a poster "Christ for Peace", and a girl with a blue and yellow manicure and the print "No war" on her handbag, were detained in the center of Moscow
Russia has blocked the world's largest online chess platform "Chess. com" due to two anti-war articles posted on their website.
Bellingcat: Russia still has about 30% of its precision-guided missiles; only 30-40 people remained in the Russian Federation who can control such missiles; Russia lost 90% of its best paratroopers during the war; 19 countries are ready to provide Ukraine with high-tech weapons.
The Telegraph Britain is ready for the first time in 30 years to reopen a coal mine to replace Russian coal. The Woodhouse Colliery mine in Cumbria is expected to supply coal to steel mills.
Nasdaq exchange will stop working with investors from Russia from April 29th.
Wall Street Journal: Russian authorities have banned publication of data on government debt, trade statistics and oil production to hide the problems Russia is facing due to sanctions.
Sonntags Zeitung: Switzerland has vetoed German request to re-export ammunition to Ukraine, seemingly another attempt by Germany to launder itself so as not to “offend” Russia.
Corriere della Sera: Italy will transfer heavy weapons to Ukraine as part of the next military aid package. Self-propelled 155-mm M109 howitzers and state-of-the-art self-propelled guns PzH2000 along with armored vehicles.
Bloomberg The issue of arms supplies to Ukraine caused controversy in Bulgaria among the members of the country's government, in connection with which the ruling coalition decided to refuse arms supplies.
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss: “Russia has committed horrific atrocities, including attacks on innocent civilians and children in Odesa and the siege of Mariupol. We will not stop until Putin fails and Ukraine wins.”
Daily Express: Britain plans to transfer 45,000 artillery shells and 20 AS-90 self-propelled artillery to Ukraine.
The Independent: Wildfires rage out of control in Siberia as military units normally tasked with putting out fires have been redeployed to fight in Ukraine
Financial Times: Shell is withdrawing from its largest Liquefied petroleum gas project in the Russian Federation, Sakhalin-2. The corporation is negotiating the sale of its stake to companies from China
Turkish Foreign Minister: Turkey has closed airspace for Russian military and civilian aircraft flying to Syria.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister: Lithuania proposes that the EU impose sanctions against head of Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill because of the events in Ukraine.
Estonia Foreign Minister: Russia has developed plans to invade Estonia as part of a training exercise. Estonia’s assistance to Ukraine is equivalent to 2% of its GDP.
Fuel storage tanks at an oil depot in Bryansk, just across the border with Ukraine, caught fire. This is the second Russian fuel base to burn in the last thirty days. The oil depot is apparently part of an oil pipeline complex that supplies oil to the member states of the European Union.
Ukrainian Institute for the Future: 40% of Russians support launching the first nuclear strike.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, US President Joe Biden plans to appoint Bridget Brink as US Ambassador to Ukraine (the current US Ambassador to Slovakia). The post, which did not have a confirmed Ambassador after Marie Yovanovitch, was withdrawn in May 2019.
Ministry of Defense of Great Britain: Russia's decision to besiege rather than attack Mariupol's Azovstal steel plant means many Russian units remain fixed in the city and cannot be redeployed. Ukraine's defence of Mariupol has also exhausted many Russian units and reduced their combat effectiveness.
NATIONAL
President's Office: “A video was sent to the mother of a Ukrainian prisoner by Russian soldiers. They demanded €5,000 by Monday, otherwise her son will be executed in the next video. The occupiers are becoming more and more like ISIS militants. Russia should be recognized as a terrorist state."
President's Office: A plant for production of drones is being built near Kyiv. The Ukrainian-Turkish plant will produce, among other things, a new generation of jet drones - Anka. Drones will come off the line at the end of 2022.
Deputy Defense Minister: More than 80% of the wounded Ukrainian soldiers are returning to duty.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
· Russian forces continue attacking Azovstal
· Russians carried out assault operations near the village of Vremyvka village, (Donetsk Oblast). Failed.
· With artillery support the enemy attempted an offensive in direction of Novomykhailyvka and Maraynka settlements (Donetsk Oblast). Failed.
· Near Severodonetsk the enemy tried to assault Yatskovka settlements, Failed.
· Occupiers established control over part of Zaryche
· Russians tried to gain a foothold in the western, northwestern, and eastern parts of Rubizhne, Failed.
· Russians began to advance in directions of Orykhove and Nyzhne (Luhansk Oblast).
· Assault operations by units of Russian army in areas of Pashkovo, Dolgonke and Velyka Kamyshevakha (Kharkiv Oblast). Failed.
The International Committee of the Red Cross calls for immediate unimpeded access to Mariupol (Ukraine).
The Security Service of Ukraine detained a member of parliament who is an agent of Russia and liquidated an agent network of Russian soldiers in the south and east of Ukraine.
Ukrzaliznytsia: 5 railway stations in central and western Ukraine came under fire this morning. At least 16 trains will be delayed.
DONBAS
Luhansk Regional Military Administration:
· Russian shelling interrupted the main gas pipeline, the transformer substation burned. Forty-six settlements remain without gas.
· "On Sunday, the entire region was under heavy shelling by the Russians. Three high-rise buildings and four private houses burned down.
· The oil refinery in Lisichansk was shelled for the third time.
Donetsk Regional Military Administration
· On Easter morning, Russian shelling killed two children in the Donetsk region of Ukraine.
KHARKIV
Kharkiv Regional Military Administration:
· Two people were killed, 11 more were injured due to Russian shelling.
· In Volchansk, Russians set up a prison on factory premises “A real concentration camp, where people are subjected to certain tortures, forced to cooperate, to join the ranks of the RF Armed Forces”.
· Kharkiv, Karasivka, Prydianska and Kororbochkino were shelled sporadically.
· Russian forces near Izium attempted to advance on Nova Dmitrivka, veluka Komyshyvakha and Virnopillia without success.
Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office: As a result of shelling of Chuguev, a 59-year-old man was killed. Three more people were injured, including an 11-year-old boy. In addition, Russians opened fire on Malynyvka in Chuguevskyi district. Two men and one woman were injured.
Kharkiv, Mayor 2195 houses were destroyed by Russian troops out of 8,000 residential buildings in the city.
Defense Intelligence: “Russian soldiers in the Kharkiv region are installing the equipment of the Russian mobile operator MegaFon, trying to introduce rubles there, and also agitating people to go to the Russian Federation to buy food.”
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Odesa Regional Military Administration Ukrainian military has success in Kherson. Russians are suffering significant losses in personnel and equipment.
In Kherson Oblast, Russian tanks under Ukrainian flags are shelling villages.
The outskirts of Kherson are under attack by Ukrainian forces. Civilians are prevented from leaving the city by Russian forces.
President's Office: For the 17th time Ukrainian Armed Forces defeated Russian troops In Chornobayivka, Kherson Oblast.
Odesa Hospital about the state of health of yesterday’s missile strike: Today in-patient treatment in Odesa there are 10 victims, the nature of injuries - shrapnel injuries, fractures, burns.
In the city of Eski Kyrym (Staryi Krym), occupying Russian authorities will close the Crimean Tatar secondary school № 2. Parents are protesting the decision to merge the school with a nearby Greek school.
Zaporozhie Regional Military Administration:
· In the region, the Russian army is focused on Gulyaipole.
· At about 10:00 a.m. shelling began in Vasilyivka. According to locals, the rockets landed in places where the consecration of Easter baskets had been announced the other day, and the attack itself began immediately after the service began. The Russians spread false information that Ukrainian soldiers would shoot at civilians.
· The Russian Federation has deployed a large amount of equipment and personnel in the section Velyka Novosilka - Novodarivka - Malynivka and is preparing for an offensive towards Zaporizhzhya
· Exits from Melitopol are blocked in order for Russia to conduct a "conscription campaign" among Ukrainian men
· The "Militia" of the Russian Federation has started operating in the occupied Dniprorudny.
Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration: Approximately 30 orcs retreating from a fire fight in Mykolaiv Oblast were shot down by their own and then burned.
REST OF UKRAINE
Poltava Regional Military Administration: Nine rockets hit infrastructure in Kremenchuk and other areas in Poltava Oblast. Damage is extensive but there are no reports of injuries.
The Guardian: Russian soldiers were killing Ukrainians in Bucha with World War I shells. According to the findings of pathologists and forensic experts. According to them, the metal remains taken from the bodies of the dead are flechettes, (a type of ammunition resembling a needle, used in bombs, shells, and guns).
Kryvyi Rih Military Administration: Russian troops are preparing for an attack on Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro Oblast. "The Russian army is forming an offensive strike formation in Kherson region. We are waiting for their possible offensive. But we know more about them than they think, we understand all their plans, and are fully prepared for developments.
Vinnytsia Regional Military Administration: Zhmerynka and Kazatyn under rocket fire, there are casualties and wounded.
Rivno Regional Military Administration: 2 missile strikes in Rivne region are confirmed, no casualties reported.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://euromaidanpress.com/
https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis