Bob Homans Sitrep April 22

20220422

Ukraine 4/22 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
April 22, 2022

First of all, my best wishes to all for a happy Orthodox Easter Holiday!

Putin & Shoigu

Yesterday Russian President Putin had televised meeting with his Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu.   Shoigu wore a business suit, they sat at Putin’s desk in close proximity to each other, and neither wore masks.

During the meeting, Putin congratulated Shoigu on the Russian Army “liberating” Mariupol.   Putin ordered the Army to surround but not assault the Azovstal Steel Plant, where approximately 2,500 members of Ukraine’s Azov Battalion is holed up and demanding that “not a fly be let out.”

What was most significant for me, in watching a video clip of the meeting, was that in my opinion Putin looked awful.   He seems to be consumed by the chair he was sitting in, shoulders hunched.    His hand was gripping the table, perhaps suggesting that he was in pain, and his voice sounded weak.   For these reasons, it is somewhat surprising that Russia decided to release a video of this meeting.

“Economist” Webinar

Earlier today, the “Economist” had one of their periodic webinars about the war.   Here are a few highlights:

·       Going back to the Putin-Shoigu meeting, the experts from the “Economist” said that the meeting indicates to them a shift in the relationship between Putin and his generals.  According to the Economist’s experts, until yesterday Putin was dictating strategy and the generals followed.  The decision not to attack the Azovstal Steel Plant was almost certainly taken by the generals, and not Putin, and Putin followed the generals’ recommendation.   The participants said that generals likely told Putin that assaulting Azovstal will almost certainly cost the lives of hundreds of Russian soldiers, and significant loss of equipment, losses that they cannot absorb if they are to pivot north and try to cut off Ukrainian forces in Donbas.

·       Putin – One of the Economist’s experts expressed the same opinion about Putin’s appearance at the Shoigu meeting that I expressed, especially that he looked as if he was in pain.

·       Polling – One participant cited polling metadata released by Russia, behind the poll showing Putin’s approval rating of over 80%.   He said that 90% of the participants either refused to answer questions relating to support of the war in Ukraine, or the participants tried to change the subject.

·       Western Arms Shipments – One of the experts said that the war no longer involves Russia attacking Ukraine.  Now, it is Russia attacking Ukraine and the industrial and military might of the West.   For example, the United States is not the only country sending howitzers.   The Czechs, the Dutch and even the French are also sending howitzers.   Yesterday, the Washington Post reported that Ukraine now has more tanks on its territory than Russia has.  The level of sophistication of the weapons has increased substantially.

·       Western View of the War has Changed – At the beginning, most western countries viewed the war as a nuisance.  Today, the West views the war as a conflict that Ukraine must win.   This change in perception seems to be reflected in the weapons shipments.

·       Belarus – One expert stated that if Belarusian troops entered Ukraine to fight on behalf of Russia that most of them would change sides and fight for Ukraine, and there would likely be a coup in Belarus.

·       Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons – The experts said that if Putin orders the use of tactical nuclear weapons, but the order wasn’t carried out, it would mean the end of Putin’s rule.  They think this may be the reason that Putin is holding back, that not even Putin is completely confident that his order would be obeyed.

“Kyiv Independent” 

This is an excellent article from the “Kyiv Independent,” written by Illia Ponomarenko, describing what the “Battle of Donbass” might look like.   I especially commend your attention to the map, which Ponomarenko says looks very similar to the order of battle at the Battle of Kursk in 1943 when the Germans tried, unsuccessfully, to cut off a Russian pocket that penetrated German lines.   Germany was unsuccessful.   Ponomarenko argues that in order for  Russia to succeed where Germany failed, it must overcome a number of problems, including:

·       Lack of manpower

·       Need to secure cities – Without securing cities like Sloviansk, Avdiivka and Kramatorsk, all of which have been heavily fortified, Russia will be unable to close the pocket.

·       Existing fortifications along the Line of Contact – Ukraine has had 8 years to build fortifications around occupied Donbas; Russia has yet to penetrate these defenses.

·       Recouping existing losses – Russia has not had time to recoup the losses it took from the fighting around Kyiv, in terms of training of conscripts, lack of reserves, and replacing equipment.

Adding to the problems described above, the Stinger and Starstreak missiles are preventing Russia from using tactical air support to complement its armor.   In addition, lack of manpower limits Russia’s ability to engage infantry support for its armor.   Then there is still the matter of poor tactical communications.

“Phoenix Ghost” Drones 

As part of the latest $800 million military aid package announced yesterday by Pres. Biden, Ukraine will be receiving 121 of the Phoenix Ghost drones, modified by the U.S. Air Force to suit Ukrainian conditions.    Similar to Switchblade drones, the Phoenix Ghost drones can be launched in the field, they have optical capabilities, and they can be targeted at Russian armor or troop concentrations.     In addition, as reported in today’s Wall Street Journal, Ukraine has become a proving ground for drones produced by several start-up U.S. designers and manufacturers.

4/22 Sitrep (my comments in Bold Face)

Russia nominated itself as the successor of the Soviet Union in 1991.  As a result, it took over the Soviet’s international assets and debts.  The other republics, in particular Ukraine, were not pleased.  Ukrainian public opinion at that time was that Russia got immense amounts of Soviet gold, diamonds, and other property with very little debt.

The question of who gets what in the breakup was acute.  At stake were the assets of the then All Union Organizations, Associations, trusts, etc.  The armed forces were one of these ubiquitous “All Union” bodies.  Their division in 1991 – through to 1993, was one of the issues that almost led to the first Russian Ukrainian war.  The most valuable prize in that division was the Black Sea Fleet, and as an aperitive to the fleet – Sevastopol.

The question of who gets what paradigmatically illustrates Soviet mentality.  People are not important, things are.  At that time the idea of asking people where they wanted to go, to Ukraine, to Russia, was a complete non-starter.  The elite in power knew better and would make decisions for them.

Ukraine’s elite in 1991, fearing that Russia would take everything, broke the model by asking the people living in Ukraine, “Do you want to be Ukrainians?”  The answer, 91%, was yes.  With a ballot behind it, Ukraine was able to get an asset deal with Russia, and later with the rest of world on nuclear weaponry.

Ukraine’s trajectory after that referendum continued the process of breaking, gradually and not without backsliding, the Soviet Model.  Russia remains trapped in the model. 

A simple example of diverging world views is evident in what contemporary Ukrainians and Russians take from the legacy of Soviet culture.  One singer, songwriter, and actor immensely popular throughout the Soviet Union from the late sixties to eighties, was Vladimir Vysotsky.  He is remembered mostly for his songs and singing style.

Vysotsky lyricized alcoholism, criminality, war, and angst.  A small but significant segment of contemporary Russian street and pop music continues to refrain Vysotsky today.  That style and content is absent in Ukraine. 

The behavior of Russian soldiers in Ukraine today continues to refrain the themes of alcoholism, criminality, war, and angst.  Ukrainians have seen all this before and that is why they continue fighting to the end.

An aside.  Following the first Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Ukraine held the Donetsk airport with a small contingent for 242 days while surrounded.  Mariupol, with a large Ukrainian contingent has stood for 52 days and will not surrender.  Apparently, the Russians forgot this lesson as well as forgetting that they were almost kicked out of Donbas by Ukrainian volunteers in 2014.

INTERNATIONAL

The Council of the Organization of American States has decided to deprive the Russian Federation of its permanent observer status.

The USA has appointed General Terry Wolf, a former ISIS anti-terrorist, to coordinate military aid to Ukraine.

Reuters: Slovenia will provide Ukraine with T-72 tanks, and instead will receive infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers from Germany.

US President Joseph Biden said that Putin would be mistaken if he believes that the West will stop supporting Ukraine.  The new package of US military aid to Ukraine, announced by Biden, includes 72 howitzers and 121 tactical drones.

CNN, The Washington Post quoting the Pentagon: During the day, the Russian Federation sent three more battalion tactical groups to the east of Ukraine, because of which the total number of Russian BTGs in Ukraine reached 85.  Ukraine now has more tanks "on the move" than Russia.  At the same time, the US Department of Defense notes that this factor is not decisive in the war since Russia is reorienting its invasion and focusing mainly on the Donbas and Mariupol.

Demonstrations and actions supporting Ukraine took place yesterday in Jackonsville, Florida, Warsaw, Prague, Sacramento, California, Hollywood, and Los Angeles.

OMV, an Austrian oil refiner, says that raw materials coming from Russia are no longer used for processing.

Prime Minister of Croatia Plenkovic announced that is cutting off all contact with pro-Russian President Milanovic.  “I don’t know whether he is their agent or not, but the damage he has done to Croatia in foreign affairs over the past two months is enormous,” - says Andrej Plenkovic, adding that as long as he is in power, he will boycott the president.

Russian military spokesman said they have lost 13,414 soldiers, 7,000 whose whereabouts are not known, 116 killed on the Moskva and another 100 missing from the Moskva.  Ukraine’s military calculates that Russia has lost 21,200.

Russia insists on including Belarus as a participant in future agreements with Ukraine.

Armed Forces of Ukraine:  Another Battalion Tactical Group commander was liquidated near Avdiivka. 

Finnish Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee: Finland will send an application to join NATO in the coming weeks.

The prime ministers of Spain and Denmark were in Kyiv yesterday. They met Ukraine’s president and were stunned by the horridness and atrocities of Putin's war which they saw on the streets of Borodyanka. 

Latvian Seimas amended the Law “On Citizenship” so that a person can be deprived of citizenship for any support to states that commit crimes against peace, genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes that threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence of democracies.

A major figure in Russia’s 2014 occupation of Donbas, Strelkov, complained that the Russian military "could not create a defensive fortification, except for those fortresses that the Ukrainian military specifically left for them after ceasing to defend Volnovakha and Mariupol."

Ukrainian Minister of Finance: The UK will provide Ukraine with $500 million in loan guarantees

Slobodna Dalmacija: There are four Croatian volunteers are among the Azov fighters defending Azovstal in Mariupol.

The US State Department considers statements made by Putin and Shoigu on Mariupol to be disinformation:  "We have the understanding that Ukrainian forces continue to hold their positions in Mariupol."

“Lada” has stopped production because it has no more Japanese automatic transmissions left.

The Guardian: Transfer of Soviet MiG-29 aircraft from Warsaw to Ukraine still "on the table"

Next week, Germany’s opposition intend to introduce a draft resolution in the Bundestag on the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine if the Chancellor does not.

Atlantic Council:  The Armed Forces of Ukraine became the fourth NATO army in terms of its combat capability

Prime Minister of Ukraine met with US Secretary of Defense to discuss continuation of US military assistance to Ukraine.

Prime Minister of Ukraine said in Washington that the restoration of Ukraine will cost at least $600 billion

The Hill:  The US helps store and collect evidence of war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine, according to the US Attorney General

The EU may impose an embargo on oil imports from Russia in the coming weeks.

Putin has taken over as the Commander-in-chief, but he will not be able to build a new war strategy, Bellingcat journalist Christo Grozev notes in an interview with Popular Politics.  "We'll see in a week... The more he personally participates, the worse it will be for the strategy," Grozev says.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: Slovenia to give Ukraine 54 M-84 tanks

NATIONAL

Russia’s current goal for the invasion is to establish full control over the Donbas and southern Ukraine, providing a corridor to the Crimea and an exit to Transnistria, where allegedly “facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population are observed.”  

It is hard to see where the oppression of the Russian-speaking population in Transnistria comes from.  The entire population of Transnistria speaks Russian.  A major reason why Transnistria has tried to break off from Moldova was linguistic.  Most Moldovans speak Romanian.   There are approximately 1,000 Russian “peacekeepers” in Transnistria, who are now cut off from Russia because Ukraine announced that they would shoot down any Russian aircraft transiting Ukrainian territory bound for Transnistria.  It is likely that the reason for Russia’s interest in Transnistria is to pressure or invade Moldova, a country with a pro-Western government that is a member of neither the EU nor NATO.

Ukraine’s presidential spokesman said that Putin lost the battle for Mariupol.  If Russia withdraws troops from the city, it will be easier for our soldiers to kill the others daily.

Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense: "Modern" Russian cruise missiles are equipped with electronics developed in the 1960’s.

Ministry of Defence: 

·       Russian troops isolate captured settlements and shoot volunteers in Kharkiv Oblast.  Russian forces continue to block the movement of civilians, rob, and artificially create a humanitarian crisis; they destroy critical infrastructure facilities and block the delivery of humanitarian supplies from the territory of Ukraine. There are cases of executions of civilians and volunteers.

·       Yesterday ten attacks by Russian soldiers were repulsed in Donbas; six tanks, eight armored vehicles and fifteen vehicles, four artillery systems have been destroyed.

·       Yesterday Ukraine’s air defense destroyed fifteen air targets: nine UAVs, three aircraft and three helicopters.

·       Russian soldiers of the 150th motorized rifle division of the 8th combined army did not receive combat pay in March.  They are unhappy.

·       To prevent problems from rounding up conscripts from April 30, Russians will be prohibited from leaving and entering Crimea.

·       The battalion tactical group of the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58th combined army of the Southern Military District, operating in the Kharkiv suffered significant manpower losses (up to 250 people) and 10 units of attack equipment.

·       The Russian army is strengthening the troop groupings of in Zaporizhzhia.

·       A Russian reconnaissance unit in Trudoliubivka, Kherson Oblast suffered heavy losses, retreated to previously occupied positions.

·       In Donetsk Russians attacked Zarichne, Marinka and Rubizhne without success.

·       Ukrainian forces continue to defend Novotoshkivske and Popasna.

·       Russia concentrated near Izium up to 25 battalion tactical groups.

·       Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed about 200 soldiers in eastern Ukraine on April 21. In addition to manpower, the Ukrainian defenders destroyed: 5 tanks, 2 infantry fighting vehicles, 1 armored personnel carrier, 1 artillery system, 9 vehicles, 1 aircraft, 3 UAVs.

·       Russia continues to block Kharkiv with up to seven battalion tactical groups.

Ukraine’s president created the National Council for the Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine.

Economy Minister "We expect to receive candidate status for EU membership as early as this summer.

Ukraine’s President advised the World Bank to take the following five steps:

1.      The first is immediate support for Ukraine, so that the Russian leadership knows that the war will not allow them to reach any of their predatory goals.

2.      The second is the immediate exclusion of Russia from all international monetary institutions.

3.      The third is a special war tax. Russia, and after it any other aggressor, must pay for violating global stability."

4.      "The fourth, every state in the world needs to prepare now for a possible complete severance of any relations with Russia.

5.      The fifth, to continue blocking the assets of the Russian state and representatives of the Russian elite."

National Security and Defense Council Secretary: Putin and Shoigu plan to create concentration camps for Ukrainians in Western Siberia.  Russia’s goal is the destruction of our country, nation and the colonization of Ukraine.

Office of the General Prosecutor:  Opened 7,836 cases of war crimes, charged 620 with treason, opened 3,652 cases of threats to national security and reports 208 children killed and 386 wounded.

DONBAS

British intelligence: Heavy shelling and fighting continues in the east of Donbass as Russia seeks to push further towards settlements including Krasny Liman, Buhaikva, Barvinkovo, Liman and Popasna as a part of its plans in the region.

British intelligence: Putin's decision to block Azovstal probably indicates a desire to contain Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol and release Russian forces for deployment elsewhere in eastern Ukraine.  A full-scale Russian ground attack on the plant is likely to cause significant losses to the Russians, which will further reduce their overall combat effectiveness.

Donetsk Regional Military Administration: Since February 24, almost three-quarters of the population have left occupied Donbas: approximately 430,000 people

Donetsk Regional Military Administration: Azovstal continued to be shelled after Putin ordered an end to the assault.

Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol: Aerial photos revealed a 300 meter long mass grave in Mangush, just outside of Mariupol.  Comparing that with the 40 meter long grave in Bucha he estimated the grace contains at least 3,000 people.

The advisor added that more than 100,000 residents have been evacuated from Mariupol since March 13, and yesterday another 80 were rescued.  Bombing and fighting continue in Mariupol.

KHARKIV

Kharkiv Regional Military Administration:  Kharkiv was shelled 50 times in 24 hours. One shell hit a car directly. Two people died on the spot”

Mayor of Kharkiv urges residents of areas that are constantly under shelling to decide to evacuate.   “To date, invaders have destroyed two markets and continue to shell residential areas. I beg you: make a decision and save your lives.”

Kharkiv Regional Military Administration Russian forces captured 22 territorial communities, while the other 34 in Kharkiv Oblast are under Ukrainian control.

Kharkiv Regional Military Administration  “We do not know exactly what is happening in Izyum, where the situation with humanitarian aid is critical.” “While two weeks ago we managed to deliver at least something there by partisan routes, for which I am grateful to local governments and volunteers, now this opportunity has been completely stopped.”

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Zaporizhzhia Regional Мilitary Administration: The Russian Army is trying to move deeper into the region and does not give up its ambition to go to Zaporozhye.  Villages near Gulyaipol are constantly shelled by the Russian military. Sometimes the intervals between series of bursts of shells - no more than 2 minutes.

Kherson Regional Military Administration commenting on the planned Russian referendum to create the Kherson Peoples Republic, “Not a single person in the Kherson region will come to the Russian referendum" .

Office of Prosecutor General of Ukraine:  As a result of a missile attack on Zaporizhzhia 8 people were wounded.

Defense Forces of the Zaporizhzhia Territory:  In Enerhodar (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), the Russian military have started drawing up lists of local residents for the issuance of 10 thousand rubles. They plan to use the data from the lists to hold a pseudo-referendum.

A Ukrainian military transport plane went down today in Zaporizhia Oblast.  Details are missing.

Kryvyi Rih military administration: Russian troops captured the evacuation coordinator in the Kherson region.  Negotiations are underway to release the coordinator.

Mykolaiv Regional State Military Administration said fighting continues on a daily basis.  The enemy is bombarding the city with multiple-launch rocket systems.  Tonight they fired again - three people were wounded, one of them died on the operating table." Mykolaiv remains without water supply because the pipe ruptures are in an area with constant shelling.  Civilians are not allowed to work there.

Melitopol mayor guerrillas have already killed about 100 Russian servicemen in Melitopol,

REST OF UKRAINE

As a result of rocket strikes on the Dnipropetrovsk region, two people were injured.

National Union of Journalists of Ukraine: Russian Federation forces destroyed the archive of Viacheslav Chornovil in Bucha.  Chornovil was a prominent Soviet Ukrainian dissident.  Destroyed was

·       archive of Vyacheslav Chornovil;

·       all books from the former Chornovil Foundation and more than 60 complete sets of ten volumes of Chornovol;

·       the archive of the political prisoner of the Soviet system, Mykola Plahotniuc, except for a few notebooks that flew out during the explosion.

Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, air raid alerts in Kyiv have sounded 309 times, and their total duration has exceeded 500 hours - that is, 37% of the time of all 56 days of the war.

⚡️Deputy Head of the President Office:  In Bucha they have begun installing windows in houses.  Hostomel is being cleaned of rubble.

Dnipropetrovsk Regional Council: 5 people were injured as a result of the Russian missile attack on the Novomoskovskyi.

Zhytomyr Police:  Hundreds of private homes are destroyed and 470 are damaged in Malyn.  Villages that suffered include Riznya, Stari Vorobji, Nova Huta, Morozivka, Klytnya and Liubovychy,  as they had been shelled for several weeks.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis