Bob Homans Sitrep April 18

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Ukraine – 4/18 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
April 18, 2022

Thank you!

My thanks to everyone who responded to Kateryna’s solicitation that we posted in yesterday’s Sitrep, to help her and her comrades procure the necessary supplies they need to help defend Ukraine.   Our thanks includes people who get our emails through forwarding, or people who have seen it on various social media accounts where recipients posted the solicitation.   For those of you who didn’t see the solicitation, perhaps because I sent it yesterday on Easter Sunday, you can find it here.   As of yesterday, the amount raised was under $2,000.00.  Today, as of this writing, it is $5,995.00.   Kateryna and her comrades thank you.

Nataliya Gumenyuk

Nataliya Gumenyuk is a Ukrainian journalist.   Three days ago Nataliya wrote a very moving article, entitled “They Were Killed for Us,” published by “Rolling Stone” Magazine, about the massacre of Ukrainians in the City of Bucha, but particularly the murders of Olga Sukhenko and her family.  Olga Sukhenko was a Bucha city official, who chose to stay in her post, despite Russia’s targeting of city officials.    Russian practice of targeting city officials has been repeated in every town and city occupied by Russian Army.

Nataliya described the looting in the Town of Borodyanka, northwest of Kyiv - “Borodyanka, another occupied town near Kyiv, where 12,000 people live, say they were looted three times, because there were three waves of the Russian army that passed through. The first took the most-precious things and were the least violent. The second wave was angrier. But the worst was the third — little remained for them to steal.”

Nataliya is an alumna of the Draper-Hills Summer Fellows Program at the Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University.   She has been the host for the “Sunday Show,” produced by Hromadske TV, where she has interviewed many prominent Ukrainians and foreign visitors.  I had the good fortune of meeting Nataliya once.

Crippled “Moskva”

This photograph purports to show “Moskva,” after being hit by the 2 Ukrainian cruise missiles.   The radar dome toward the stern contains the air search radar that, according to reports, was pointed in the wrong direction from where the missiles hit.   Apparently, the radar was tracking at least 1 drone, possibly more, that Ukraine had launched to serve as a distraction.

Based on the smoke and the damaged mast, shown tilted forward, the missiles hit right behind the bridge, and very close to the cruise missile tubes.   It’s possible that the commanding officer and several senior officers were killed as a result.

The ship is listing to port.  It is unclear if the crew had initiated counter flooding, pumping seawater into the spaces on the starboard side of the ship.   Counter flooding may have kept the ship on an even keel and allowed it to get back to Sevastopol.

4/18 Sitrep (my comments in Bold Face)

Fresh Graveyard in Severodonetsk

As shown on the map below Severdonetsk, along with Izyum and Rubizhne, are Ukrainian cities that sit on the northern axis of Russia’s likely plan cut off Ukrainian forces along the Line of Conteact with occupied Donbas (shown in dark pink).

INTERNATIONAL

Demonstrations protesting the Russian invasion of Ukraine took place yesterday in Washington, Malaga, Barcelona, Paris, Luxemburg, Sao Paulo, Jerusalem, and an airplane with a tagalong banner that flew over several Florida cities.

Macron promised if re-elected that France would be the first major country to be completely free of natural gas and crude oil.

As of yesterday, an 80 km line of Russian and Belarus freight trucks are stranded at the Polish Belarus border.  Their fate will be decided today.

The head of the European Commission said yesterday that Russia cannot avoid a default.

Italian President Draghi said after a telephone call with Putin that Putin told him it’s not time to end the war.

Austrian Chancellor Nechamayer, in an interview, said that Putin told him during his visit four days ago that Russia will win.  The chancellor said that delusions on that scale can only lead to a tragedy.

The EU will provide Ukraine an additional 50 million Euro of humanitarian aid.

Russia’s Soyuzmultfilm withdrew a Soviet era cartoon from You Tube.  The cartoon is about the adventures of three children in a submarine named “Neptune”.  While exploring the sea bottom the children find a sunken battleship, with an identification number Z 29.  The children announced it is a sunken Fascist Vessel.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign affairs in an official press conference said it sent diplomatic notes that threaten every country supplying Ukraine with arms.  The nature of threat was not indicated.

Moldova indicated at the start of the war it would not sell Ukraine its Mig-29s to avoid irritating Russia.

Austria indicated that it is 80% dependent on Russian natural gas, and it will take it a few years to wean itself from this dependency.   No reason to hurry.

Germany has opened 140 criminal cases against individuals who are praising the Russian invasion.

NATIONAL

Putin’s self-described “favorite Ukrainian” Viktor Medvedchuk, who tried to flee Ukraine after busting his house arrest, made a video plea to Putin and Zelensky.  His plea was that he be exchanged for Ukrainian forces and civilians trapped in Mariupol.  It’s not clear that Ukrainian forces and civilians trapped in Mariupol are Russia’s to be traded.

Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, said that there has not been any high-level contact with Russia over the last week.  He added, following similar comments by President Zelensky, that taking Mariupol will be red line which if crossed would be the end of negotiations.

Ukraine’ Ministry of Education said it will review current instructional textbooks to ensure that they do not praise war.  The Ministry added it has no intention of curtailing Russian language instruction in Ukrainian schools.

The Kazakh embassy has resumed operations in Kyiv.  The majority of embassy’s that sought refuge in western Ukraine or Poland have returned to Kyiv.

Ukrainian national guard removed a bust of Field Marshall Zhukov from a pediment in Kharkiv yesterday.  Zhukov is best known in Ukraine for sending millions of poorly armed Ukrainians against the Wehrmacht to take the Dnipro River.  It is estimated that 400,000 soldiers were killed in this operation.  Russian’s consider Zhukov a national hero.  

After the end of WW-II General Dwight Eisenhower, Supreme Commander of Allied Forces Europe, had a meeting with Marshall Zhukov, at which time Eisenhower told Zhukov, “if I had as little regard as you had for the lives of soldiers under my command, I would’ve been removed from my command and court martialed.”   As an example, in the 30-40 days that it took the Soviet Army to conquer Romania, they lost as many people as all of the allied armies, combined, lost in Northwest Europe between June 6th, 1944, the day of the invasion of Normandy, until May 8th, 1945, the date of Germany’s unconditional surrender.

Not much has changed in the Russian Army.

Daily Bulletin of Ukraine’s General Staff:

·        More than 50 Russian platoons have refused to leave their temporary bases on or near the Russian Ukrainian border to take part in the planned attack on Ukraine’s Donbas.

·        Russian forces are continuing preparations for a referendum to legitimate the creation of a Kherson Peoples Republic.  The Russians, who are distributing food aid to citizens that provide their identification information, plan to vote on behalf of citizens.  Rumors circulating in Kherson are that after the vote their will be a general conscription of men.

·        Russia is beginning to fortify its northern border in Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts with Ukraine.

·        Russia is testing its ability to rapidly ford the Severodonetsk river by initiating sorties near Dmitrivka, Zavody, and Dibrovne.

·        Shelling along the entire front from Kharkiv to Mariupol continues.

·        Ground attacks were repulsed at Severodonetsk, Popasno, and in Zaporizhia Oblast.  In total 12 ground attacks were repulsed.

·        Russian forces continue building defensive fortifications and shelling of advancing Ukrainian forces in Kherson Oblast.

·        The newly appointed Russian Ukraine invasion commander is having difficulty planning because the generals in his command are concerned that they may be blamed for possible failure.  Therefore, they are blocking and delaying decision making.

From what I have read there are usually three wounded soldiers for every soldier destroyed.  If that is so, then 67% of invading personnel on February 24 are no longer capable of continuing to fight.  The table above does not include equipment captured or damaged by Ukrainian forces. 

A Russian parliamentarian said yesterday in an interview that Russia can annex occupied Donbas whenever it pleases and that it will not give up a centimeter of territory it has liberated.

Russia has stopped manufacture of ballistic and tactical rockets because it has run out of parts.  Workers can continue receiving wages if they volunteer to enlist in the army.  Otherwise, they will be released.

Ukraine’s intelligence service arrested 5 Russian spies and 2 collaborators yesterday.

More than one million who sought refuge abroad have returned to Ukraine.

Russia’s sales office for liquid natural gas in Cyprus is closing to avoid asset seizure related to sanctions.

Since the start of the war 205 children have been killed and 362 wounded.

DONBAS

Ukrainian forces trapped in Mariupol refused Russia’s offer to surrender.  In a call with a Ukrainian journalist an unnamed soldier told him, “That following Bucha surrender is impossible.”

Russian forces hit the Russian orthodox church in Severodonetsk for the fourth time with artillery since the start of the invasion.  The head of Luhansk military administration said that in total ten religious buildings have been destroyed or damaged.

Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Donbas yesterday taking back several kilometers and four communities.

Russian forces began requiring civilians in Mariupol to register and obtain temporary identity papers.  Speculation is that this will enable Russian forces to choose who deport and who can stay.

As a result of yesterdays fighting in Donetsk Oblast yesterday, 2 killed and 4 wounded according to the military administration.

A civilian vehicle was riddled by gunfire near Kremeno, Luhansk Oblast, killing all four in the car.  Another 2 were killed when shells hit an Olympic training center in the city.  Street battles have started in Kremeno.

Russian forces hit the police station in Lysychansk wounding six officers and damaging the building.

KHARKIV

The secretary of Izium’s municipal council said yesterday that the city is a complete ruin with 12,000 trapped civilians.  The city is encircled.

Yesterday as a result of shelling and rocket attacks on Kharkiv, 5 civilians killed, and 13 wounded.  Today 9 killed and 25 wounded.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Head of the Military Administration of Zaporizhia said that his son was taken prisoner yesterday at checkpoint by Russians.  The son was a participant in a convoy of civilians evacuating from Melitopol and is sixteen years old.  His current location is unknown.

Odesa city administration reports that beaches in Odesa have not been demined.  Fake reports are circulating through social media that the beaches have been demined and are safe.

Village head of Kyrylovka Zaporizhia Oblast was abducted yesterday.

Chernobaivka was hit again by Ukrainian forces destroying munitions that Russia was accumulating at the airport.  This is sixteenth time Russia has suffered significant losses at this airport.

Odesa military administration reported that it has news of Russian forces preparing a major terrorist event in the city of Kherson in the near future.  The event will be the justification for holding a referendum to create a new Russian puppet state in Kherson Oblast.

People from the village of Vysokopole Kherson Oblast reported that they have had no electricity or gas for a month and that Russian forces are looting and torturing civilians.

The head of Dnipro military administration reported one rocket attack on April 17th on a farm killing one person.

REST OF UKRAINE

Two rockets made it past Ukraine’s air defense and hit a civilian building in Synelnikov injuring two, and one in Pavlohrad damaging rail lines.

Lviv was hit by four cruise missiles this morning.  The apparent target was the railroad station but the missiles missed.  Unfortunately, 6 people were killed and 8 wounded.   The Lv’iv Railroad Station is always packed with people, including refugees going to Poland and, increasingly, Ukrainians returning to Ukraine.  Had the missiles hit their intended target, the loss of life would likely have been far greater than the 59 people (so far) killed at the railroad station at Kramatorsk.

Ukraine has shot down more than 50% of the incoming missiles launched by Russia, something for which there is infrequent reported by the pundits, but many get through.  Hopefully, with the larger anti-aircraft weapons being shipped to Ukraine by the West, the missiles that do get through will be substantially reduced.   The missiles have become Russia’s primary terror weapon against Ukraine’s civilian population.

The mayor of Trostianets, in Sumy oblast said that five children have been killed to date by mines and booby traps left behind by defeated Russian forces.

The highway between Zhytomir and Kyiv is fully open although there are several temporary bridges.