Bob Homans Sitrep April 1

20220502

Ukraine – 5/1 Sitrep
Compiled by: Robert Homans
@rhomansjr
May 1, 2022

“Battle of the Churches” (From CBS “Sunday Morning”

This is an excellent video from today’s “CBS Sunday Morning,” explaining in 5 minutes the conflict between the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarchate, and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, and the video clearly explains why Patriarch Kirill of the Moscow Patriarchate should be sanctioned.   I complement CBS News for producing this important segment.

I have been commenting on the “Battle of the Churches” since July of 2014, when I got educated by one of my collaborators on these emails.   In an email I sent out at the time, I predicted that the Ukrainian Church would eventually succeed in splitting off from the Moscow Patriarchate.  In January 2019, it happened, when Patriarch Bartholomew I, first among equals in the Eastern Orthodox Church, issued the “Tomos,” giving the Ukrainian Church its independence.   As the video illustrates, as an expression of revulsion for its support of the war, Orthodox parishes all over the world are splitting from the Moscow Patriarchate.

The video describes how the Moscow Patriarchate is nothing more than an organ of the Russian State and Kirill is, for all intents and purposes, the Russian Minister of Religion.  The video states that Kirill is yet another Russian oligarch, but it doesn’t explain how he obtained his wealth.  Kirill obtained most of his wealth when he was Metropolitan (Bishop) of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, largely through his control of cigarette smuggling.   As a result, Kirill is known as the “Tobacco Metropolitan.”

If officials of the Russian State and Duma Members are subject to sanctions, so should Kirill.

“Lend Lease” – What is it?

Last Friday the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed an extension of the 1941 Lend Lease Act, designed to expedite the transfer of weapons from the United States to Ukraine and other Eastern European countries.   What is Lend Lease and how is it different from the additional $33 billion in Ukraine assistance that Pres. Biden submitted to the U.S. Congress last Friday?

The original Lend Lease Act was enacted to expedite the transfer of weapons and equipment from the United States to both Great Britain and the Soviet Union.   In the case of Great Britain, the United States loaned several WW-I Era destroyers, designed to hunt German submarines, in return for access to British bases, primarily in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean.   In the case of the Soviet Union, the assets transferred consisted primarily of military vehicles including jeeps and 2 ½ ton trucks.   There was never any assumption that either Great Britain or the Soviet Union to return the assets (the Soviet Union has never even acknowledged that they received the assistance).   The Act was a means to circumvent the normal U.S. Government appropriations process, and to get the assets into the hands of the combatants as soon as possible.   

The intent of the current Lend-Lease legislation, now on President Biden’s desk for his signature, is the same.   I believe, subject to clarification, that the assets to be transferred to Ukraine and other Eastern European countries under the new Lend-Lease Act will consist of equipment, including lethal weapons like howitzers, as well as trucks and other non-lethal weapons.   Consumables, like ammunition will continue to be subject to normal appropriation.  

As a recovering equipment leasing expert, this breakdown between assets and consumables makes sense.   The object of leasing is almost always “revenue-producing” capital equipment and vehicles, or in this case lethal weapons and vehicles with the “revenue producing” part consisting of destroyed Russian military equipment and dead Russian soldiers.

In my mind, there are two remaining questions: Can equipment already included in the previous appropriations, primarily the 2 appropriations of $800 million, be transferred to Lend Lease to expedite delivery?   I don’t know the answer.

The second question is can Ukraine, as the lessee, designate equipment that it wants to lease?  I do not know the answer to this question but, speaking as a recovering leasing person, equipment selection is always up to the lessee.   If the answer to this question is yes, if I was Ukraine I’d request the transfer of a few squadrons of A-10 “Warthog” aircraft, the version currently being mothballed in the US in favor of a new version of the A-10.  

AWACS

From the beginning of these emails, I have speculated that NATO is using AWACS aircraft under NATO command to support Ukraine, in the areas targeting and jamming Russian air and ground communications.   Early in the war, my reading of the reports that I was seeing let me to this conclusion.   In 2014, NATO decided not to offer Ukraine similar support, because at the time, during the Presidency of Yanukovich, Ukraine’s intelligence service was riddled with agents of the Russian FSB.  NATO was concerned that using AWACS would reveal sources and methods to the Russian.

NATO has now admitted that AWACS planes, likely flying over Romanian, Bulgarian and Polish territory are supplying the support that I had described.   Specifically, AWACS planes supplied targeting information necessary to fix the position of the Moskva, flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, so that Ukraine could sink her using their Neptune anti-ship missile.

Transnistria

The Russian-controlled statelet of Transnistria, located along the left-bank of the Dniester River between Moldova and Ukraine (see map below) has been in the news lately.   A Russian general stated that a major Russian war aim is to drive along the shore of the Black Sea through Odessa, to connect Transnistria to “Russki Mir.”   I have been to Transnistria a couple of times.   It is not one the places where I’d like to return unless I change my view about paying bribes.  

Transnistria does produce an excellent cognac, called Kvint.   The 11-year-old is especially good.   In 2006, after a visit to Chisinau, Moldova, I bought a bottle of the 11-year-old Kvint to my sister’s house in Seattle, for Christmas Eve dinner.   It was especially prized by my cousin’s Romanian boyfriend.

Transnistria is shaped like a woman’s fingernail, when viewed from the side.   In addition to Kvint, Transnistria is a popular place for Moldovans to register their vehicles, because the fees are lower than they’d have to pay in Moldova.   In addition, in the 1990s Transnistria was a major venue for telephone credit card scams.

Transnistria is home to 1,500 Russian “peacekeepers.”   Transnistria was likely the origin of so-called anti-Maidan protestors, who came to Odessa on May 2, 2014.   They attacked a peaceful march of soccer fans, on their way to the stadium.   The fans retaliated, and they chased the so-called anti-Maidan protestors into the local trade union building.   The building caught fire, and over 40 “protestors” burned to death.   Ever since, Russia has been using this incident in their propaganda, as illustration of discrimination against Russian speakers, presence of Nazi’s, etc.

Tomorrow, May 2nd, look for some major “false flag” incident in either Odessa, Transnistria, or both, in commemoration of the May 2nd 2014 Incident.

5/1 Sitrep (my comments in bold face)

Ukrainians are facing gasoline, diesel, and propane rationing.  As of April 29, a maximum of ten liters of gasoline and diesel per fill and 20 liters of propane.  No limitation on public transit.  Imagine if this war time measure was adopted globally how much individuals could contribute to clean air?

INTERNATIONAL

Rallies and actions in support of Ukraine took place in Barcelona, Lodz (Poland), New York City, Marseille, Budapest, Leipzig, Berlin and Dresden (Germany).

Videos from social networks show a fire around the village of Visloe, Yakovlevsky City District of the Russian Federation.  The location is near Belgorod, near the border with Ukraine, where there have been previous unexplained fires and explosions at oil depots.   Details are not yet known.  However, we are starting to hear more rumors and videos of explosions and fires in Russian territories that border Ukraine.  Ukrainian spokesmen have in the last few days, since the latest arrivals of arms and munitions, spoken about hitting Russian military targets in Russia.  Official silence on both sides of the war suggest that improved Ukrainian capacity is starting to take the war home to the invader.

Financial Times:  Wealthy Russians are trying to exchange expensive property in London for housing in Dubai.  According to the newspaper, they hope to avoid the western sanctions imposed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

DPA:  Germany has agreed to impose an embargo on Russian oil imports. Refusal of Russian oil is considered a part of the sixth package of sanctions against the Russian Federation, which will be adopted in a few days.

According to media sources, the Queen of Spain handed over a note to Ukrainian soldiers.  In packages of grenade launchers sent to Ukraine in the instructions was a postcard from the Queen of Spain with a line: "I want victory. With love, Letizia.”  Spanish sausages were also hidden in packages of grenade launchers sent to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by Spain.

State Service for Special Communications and Information:   Poland will help Ukraine to restore the destroyed system of transmitters for television and radio broadcasting.

German Finance Minister said that Germany would not pay for Russian gas supplies in rubles.

Bloomberg:   The US administration may waive some visa restrictions for Russian masters or PhDs in technology, engineering or mathematics if they did not study in the Russian Federation,

Digi24:  "NATO expects further provocations in the unrecognized Transnistria and believes that their goal is to create problems for Ukraine, while there is no military threat to Moldova itself yet," - NATO Deputy Secretary General.  Ukrainian special services indicate that the Government of Transnistria will petition Putin to include its army in Russian military operations.

OLFI:  Denmark will give Ukraine 25 8x8 Piranha III armored personnel carriers and an additional 50 M113 G3 DK armored personnel carriers.

Bloomberg:  The EU will propose to countries to introduce a complete ban on Russian oil by the end of this year and disconnect a number of Russian banks, including Sberbank, from SWIFT.  There will also be proposed restrictions on advisory services based on cloud-based services, on the acquisition of real estate.

Dutch TV channel NOS:  The employees of the port of Amsterdam refuse to unload a tanker with Russian diesel fuel, which was previously rejected by port workers in Sweden.

The New York Times:  Ukraine will soon be able to receive Slovak MiG-29 aircraft. The initiative is one step away from implementation.  The edition writes that Slovakia has already reached an agreement with Warsaw about the Polish F-16, which as an alternative will patrol its skies until Bratislava receives American fighters.

Ilta-Sanomat:  Finnish President said in an interview that after Finland accedes to NATO, Russian military bases may appear at its eastern borders.

TRT:  "Every day we strive to protect our country from the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war," Turkish President said on the channel.  He clarified that he had already spoken twice with UN Secretary General António Guterres to find out "how they can achieve peace."

Swedish Radio:  Russian military aircraft violated Swedish airspace. The Swedish Defense Minister called such actions “unacceptable” and said that Sweden “will respond through diplomatic lines”.

Helsingin Sanomat:  Finland is preparing to cut off gas supplies from Russia in May.

Leader of Christian Democratic Union of Germany is going to visit Ukraine on Monday, May 2.  

Olfi:  Denmark will transfer wheeled armored personnel carriers, heavy mortars and shells to Ukraine.

British Prime Minister:  He stressed that the United Kingdom would continue to provide military and humanitarian aid to provide the Ukrainians with the equipment needed for their defence.  "I’m more committed than ever to reinforcing Ukraine and ensuring Putin fails."

Reuters:  UK Foreign Ministry reports that Russia is using a troll factory to target the profile of world leaders and leave comments in support of Putin and the Russian invasion.

The Moscow Times:  Paradox of history: the longer Russia is at war with Ukraine, seizing its regions, destroying and destroying its cities, the more obvious that Ukraine has a future, and Russia does not.

Financial Times:  China in talks with banks to protect assets from US sanctions.

UN:  Almost 5.5 million refugees have already left Ukraine due to the war.

NATIONAL

Deep State Map generated on April 30, 2022 at 23:33[1].  Map is updated every 12 hours.

Green = Liberated; Grey = Occupied before second Invasion; Red = Occupied during Second Invasion

Minister of Environment and Natural Resources Protection:  The volume of polluting substances released into the air during the combat operations on the territory of Ukraine can be equated with the emissions of one metallurgical enterprise for a whole year of operation.

Ukrayinska Pravda:  Ukraine once again attacked the temporarily occupied Zmiinyi Island. The following were destroyed:

·       42 Russian soldiers;

·       three Russian anti-aircraft installations;

·       an anti-aircraft missile system called "Strela-10" (according to the US DoD and NATO classification-"SA-13 Gopher");

·       a communication system; and a server room with telecommunication equipment

According to the London “Daily Mail” Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the Russian General Staff, was wounded in the fighting around Izyum.  Izyum is at the north end of a Russian axis of attack, designed to cut off Ukrainians who are defending Russian assaults on Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.   According to the “Daily Mail,” Gerasimov received a non-life-threatening shrapnel wound in his upper leg, and he was medevacked from the front.   Either Putin sent Gerasimov to the Izyum Front to rally the troops or, as a friend speculated, Gerasimov wanted to get out of the Office and away from Putin (“out of sight; out of mind”).

The mother of a Ukrainian prisoner of war in Mariupol, received a photo of her dead son yesterday from the jailers.

The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine reports that due to the military actions of Russian troops, 900 protected areas in Ukraine are in danger today.

Ministry of Culture of Ukraine:  Russian troops have already destroyed more than 250 Ukrainian cultural institutions.  These are libraries, museums, cultural establishments, churches, and other objects. Some of them are completely destroyed, some partially. Some of them are looted.

Yesterday Russian media circulated photos of a looted WWII Nazi medal stolen from the Mariupol Museum.  The media reports said the medal is, "a trophy obtained in battle with the Ukrainian military".  In fact, this medal is one of the exhibits of the Mariupol Museum of Local Lore.

Yesterday, another prisoner exchange took place, 14 Ukrainians are returning home: 7 military and 7 civilians.  One of the female soldiers is five months pregnant.

BBC:  The Ukrainian side will refuse to exchange prisoners with Russia if there are no women on the list, citing Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine.

Ukrainian Defense Ministry:  Russia may declare full mobilization if it fails to achieve its goals in eastern Ukraine soon.

Agriculture Minister:  The Russian Federation has stolen several hundred thousand tons of grain from the occupied Ukrainian territories.  The rate of expropriation has increased over the past two weeks.  "I personally hear about it from many owners of elevators in the occupied territories. This is outright robbery, and it happens everywhere in the occupied territories," he stressed.

Ukrainian and Swiss Presidents discussed preparations for the Conference on the Reconstruction of Ukraine and the mediation role of Switzerland in the provision of consular services to Ukrainians in Russia".

Ukrainian and French Presidents discussed France as a guarantor of Ukraine’s security in the future.

UNHCR:  American actress Angelina Jolie, who is a special envoy of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, visited Lviv on her own initiative.

Minister of Culture and Information Policy:  Negotiations were held with the authorities and heads of Mariupol museums on the evacuation of exhibits on the eve of the war, but they refused

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Ukraine:  expects to receive the status of a candidate member of the EU in June 2022 - at the next meeting of EU leaders.

The command of Ukraine’s Air Force revealed that the "Ghost of Kyiv" was not the recently killed Ukrainian pilot Stepan Tarabalka.  The "call sign" is the personification of many Ukrainian pilots defending the sky.

President’s Office: 4 settlements were liberated in the Kharkiv region.  The battle destroyed two Russian supply routes to their Izyum group.  4 days of food and fuel supplies, 2 generals lost, and 2 command posts destroyed.  No new forces have been sent to Izyum for the last week.  Russians may have stopped or lost ability to continue this front.

Ukrainian Minister of Justice; “We plan to create a tribunal for the Russian leadership”.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at 06:00 (GMT+3) May 1, 2022:

·       Over the previous day, air defense units hit 9 Russian air targets: two Su-25 aircraft and seven UAVs.

·       Donbas over the past day, 9 Russian attacks were repulsed, 8 tanks, 1 artillery system, 24 armored vehicles, 1 special vehicle and 5 vehicles (including 2 tankers) were destroyed.

·       Russian troops are conducting military operations to reach the administrative borders of the Kherson region and create favorable conditions for an attack on Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih.

·       Russian troops are conducting an offensive operation in the directions of Izium - Barvinkovo and Izium - Sloviansk.

·       Russian troops are trying to break through the defense of Ukrainian units in the direction of Olenivka - Novomykhailivka.

·       Russian troops are attacking in the direction of Krymka and Oleksandrivka.

·       Russian troops are conducting assault operations in the direction of Novotoshkivske - Orikhiv

The Commander of General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine discussed with the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States discussed current battlegrounds and that Ukraine is forced to give up Soviet weapons and switch to NATO models, by phone.

Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, met with Ukraine’s President in Kyiv.  She was given an award by the President and they discussed future relations of the two countries.

DONBAS

Luhansk Regional Military Administration

·       Russians shelled 12 houses in Zolote 3 town destroyed 70%

·       Russian troops are storming Orikhove

·       Russians opened fire on residential quarters of cities and villages of Luhansk on the last day of April 19 times.  One death of a man has been reported so far in Novodruzhesk.

·       Evacuation from Popasne was suspended after Russians bombarded buses with residents yesterday.  Evacuation of people will resume after it is safe.

·       Russian troops are preparing to launch a powerful strike against the region on May 9.

Donetsk Regional Military Administration

·       April 30, the Russians wounded 9 more civilians in the Donetsk region, including 4 children: 3 in Dobropillia and 1 in Drobyshevo; the death of one person wounded in the Lugansk region was registered in Bakhmut.

·       20 civilians were evacuated yesterday from Asovstal in Mariupol.

·       As a result of shelling a residential area of Dobropillia, on April 29, seven people were injured, including three children, at least six houses and one non-residential premises were damaged.

·       In two months, the Russian army killed twice as many people as the Nazis did in two years of occupation of Mariupol during World War II.

UN Representatives arrived in Mariupol to negotiate civilian evacuations from the "Azovstal".

Russian troops allowed people to move between the districts of Mariupol.  At the same time, checkpoints have been set up in the city to strengthen control.

Russia is starting to colonize abandoned residences in Mariupol with people from Russia according to the Mariupol City Council.

Maxar Technologies published satellite images of the "Azovstal" plant in Mariupol.  The images show that the structures of the steel factory are practically destroyed, as a result of bombardments and artillery strikes by the Russian army.

KHARKIV

Kharkiv Regional Military Administration:  

·       Ukrainian armed forces liberated Kutuzivka, which had been occupied by the Russians for more than two months.

·       Another Kharkiv hospital was damaged by shelling on the night of April 30.

·       The Russian army is shelling Saltivka district, of Kharkiv this morning.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Zaporozhia Regional Military Administration: 

·       In Enerhodar Russian soldiers opened shops where they sell sausages, meat and other products brought from Crimea, Belarus and Russia for roubles.  

·       ⚡️Russian soldiers shelled a farm in the Zaporizhzhia region at night. Infrastructure, machinery and sunflower seeds were damaged. There were no casualties.

Operational Command "Pivden" ("South"). In the Kherson region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed the latest Russian system "Reppelent-1", designed to disable Ukrainian drones.

Vodafone in Kherson:  Ukrainian mobile phone and Internet services have disappeared in the city and region.  Ukraine is working on restoring links.

Yesterday in Kakhovka, Kherson, Russian «authorities» issued a decree on the introduction of the Russian ruble from May 1.

The mayor of Nova Kakhovka resigned "due to complications in performing his duties under occupation".

“In the city of Kakhovka, Kherson region, the Russian military kidnapped the director of the local school, Viktor Pendalchuk, from his own home,".  His whereabouts are currently unknown.

Nova Kahovka Russian military erects a Lenin statue.

Odesa Regional Military Administration: Russian missile strikes hit Odesa airport, there are no dead and injured.  Russian troops struck from the territory of annexed Crimea using "Bastion" missiles.  The airport is no longer in service.

National Police of Ukraine:  Russian special forces, through criminal connections were preparing provocations and riots in Odesa, on the anniversary of the tragic events of May 2.  Odesa is under curfew from May 1 to 3.

Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration: 

·       The city was hit by rockets this morning – damage will be assessed after fires are extinguished.  The rocket hit an ammonia fertilizer store.

Mykolaiv Mayor:  Russian troops caused almost 350 million hryvnias damage to the city.

REST OF UKRAINE

Head of Dnipro Oblast Council:  Three missile "arrivals" in the Sinelnikovskyi.  "No casualties, no casualties, just broken abandoned buildings," he said.

Kryvii Rih Regional Military Administration:  There was not a single calm day during the week.  This morning, Russian troops again fired at Bolshaya Kostromka, Maryanskoye and the territory of the Zelenodolsk.  No one hurt.  No Russian soldiers present in Dnipro Oblast.

Russian propaganda bulletins distributed by artillery shells in Chernihiv yesterday contained messages for Chechens to surrender to Russia in 1999. 

State Border Service:  Russia again attacked the positions of Ukrainian border guards in the Chernihiv region. The Russian army fired mortars at the border checkpoint.

A monument to Pushkin was dismantled in Chernihiv. The bust was removed by the Territorial Defense fighters of the 119th brigade.

Press Service of the Italian humanitarian organization Cesvi is providing the first half a million euros for the restoration of Bucha, and the Italian city of Bergamo has offered to establish a sister relationship with Bucha.

Kyiv Region Police found another grave with men who were tortured and then brutally killed by the Russian soldiers near Bucha.

Kyiv Mayor: “Latvian partners, supplied 11 modern passenger buses to Kyiv, and humanitarian aid. Now Riga city authorities are considering providing more than 30 buses to Kyiv.

Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins.  Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.

SOURCES

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/ 

https://euromaidanpress.com/

https://invite.viber.com/?g2=AQBD3wxTrZ6XUU7IdXeHUfjVCydekezQCCGuwYnT6qPd1r7n1aVbFIewa6ng6Lis

---

[1]

https://deepstatemap.live/#6/48.979/32.036