Bob Homans Sitrep 3/13
20220314
Ukraine – 3/13 Sitrep
My Wife’s Family – an Object Lesson
Serhii Plokhii & Timothy Snyder – Together
An Article from a Chinese Think Tank
By: Robert Homans
March 13, 2022
3/13 Sitrep
As usual, any comments I (Bob Homans) have are in Bold Face.
From a friend (of Bob Homans) in Western Ukraine (reporting on Russia’s use of long-distance bombers) - The current wave of bombing is performed by Russian strategic aviation - Tu-160 and Tu-95 long distance bombers. They launch their cruise missiles (many likely from the Soviet era) outside Ukrainian air space -- over the Black Sea, Russia, and Belarus. The Ukrainian air defense cannot do anything about it. As a result, it is not always clear what are potential targets, and so the alarms go off in practically all our cities at the same time. We are in a bomb shelter now. We ignored the alarm during the night, but after they bombed Yavoriv Training Center with more than 30 rockets tonight, we decided to be on the safe side. Yavoriv is the place where a large portion of the Ukrainian Army received training from Western advisers.
The fact that they use strategic bombers and expensive rockets means they are scared to rely on their tactical aviation, due to heavy losses incurred over the previous weeks. Stingers and Polish-made missiles are very useful.
The use of long-distance bombers by the Russians is corroborated by my other contact. Ukraine needs anti-aircraft weapons capable of going after Russian bombers flying at higher altitudes. Currently, as my friend pointed out, Ukraine has no means to attack high-altitude bombers. This is especially true if, as many expect, Russians will start to rely on carpet bombing of major Ukrainian cities. For the United States, especially, to withhold these weapons from Ukraine would be inexcusable.
Private Assistance - Many people have asked me how they can help ease the current situation. Ukraine’s government has created four funds for this purpose, and they can be found here: https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi
https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/03/03/zadlya-vidnovlennya-ukrayiny-uryad-stvoryuye-chotyry-fondy-premyer-ministr/
These government funds are burdened by bureaucracy and donations made to them may reach recipients much later. Help is needed now, not in weeks’ time. Large western funds are also sluggish.
Currently I am working with two organizations. Both seek to source equipment for Ukraine’s military and self-defense forces and to provide support for internally displaced people. To date we have been working with our own money but that is not enough. We hope to open accounts in the US, Canada and EU next week. Once these accounts are open I will post more information about them, the leading organizers and accountability.
In the meantime, numerous organizations and community groups have activated themselves to help Ukraine. Please support them as there is no ideal way to support Ukraine’s efforts. It would be very kind of you to help Ukrainian refugees. This can be done now and your help is greatly appreciated and needed.
A Ukrainian Parliamentary Deputy, Alexander Kynichkii, was arrested for filming what was taking place at a checkpoint.
The North - Ukrainian special forces destroyed an attacking column near Chyhyev, a town in Kharkiv Oblast. The column consisted of tanks, armored personnel carriers, and supply trucks. In Kharkiv dead civilians are being found daily in the rubble of destroyed buildings. Sappers destroyed 40 pieces of Russian ordinance that failed to detonate yesterday in Kharkiv. In addition to low clouds, a Pentagon report yesterday indicated that it appeared that the Russians had run out of smart bombs. Their use of dumb bombs means they have to fly low which exposes them to Stingers.
Chyhyev is close to the Russian border. From this information it appears that the Ukrainians can operate at great strength in areas near the Russian border, with limited risk of being hit by Russian aircraft. This can be the result of poor coordination between Russian land and air assets, the result of jamming, or both.
Izium in Kharkiv Oblast was attacked yesterday but the attack was beaten back, and the Russians retreated across the border to Russia where they are regrouping and rearming.
Kyrill Bydanov, head of Ukraine’s intelligence said that since the start of the war Ukraine had neutralized 31 Russian battalion tactical battle groups. 13 groups were destroyed and 18 need to be re-equipped and re-manned before they can return to fight. He also said that Ukrainian intelligence is well-informed of Russian intentions and plans. For example, he played some intercepted radio commands. Of note were commands issued to forces attacking Kharkiv to shoot civilians.
There is evidence that the Russians are having the same problem with tactical communications that they experienced in the 2008 invasion of Georgia, where they often had to rely on call phones. There have been reports that the tactical communications system Russia developed in the wake of the Georgia invasion, hasn’t worked as advertised. Otherwise, we wouldn’t see Russian armor being continually exposed to attack, nor would we see communications being intercepted.
Bydanov said that Putin and Shoygu remain committed to continuing the war while the rest of the Russian elite is looking to end fighting. Russian forces on the ground are demoralized and Ukraine has had to create a new administrative unit in the army to handle more than 1,000 prisoners of war. Russians suffered heavy personnel losses in their attempts to surround Kyiv, in attacks on Zhytomir and on Mykolaiv.
Along Ukraine’s border with Belarus, it appears that the Belarus army is taking position near the border. On the Ukrainian side of the border Russian battle groups have retreated and are rearming and reorganizing which, in the case of the Russians, is a code word for not being battle worthy.
To surround Chernihiv the Russians attacked Mykhail-Kochybinski and Shestovycha. Ukraine’s Northern Marines, who have been defending Chernihiv, completed outfitting a tactical battle group with captured tanks, armored personnel carriers, and supply trucks. Without Chernihiv, that sits astride the route between Russia and Kyiv, Russians will have trouble resupplying units to the south, in Brovary and elsewhere.
Kyiv - Ukraine’s army command said that Russians forces are trying a new route to attack Kyiv through the dacha (cottage) communities of Zazimia and Vyshenki. Probes to take these communities were liquidated. The Russians destroyed another food warehouse and distribution center at Brovary, a satellite community of Kyiv.
Zazimia is a town located on the Left Bank of the Dnieper River, near the hydroelectric dam. The bridge that crosses the Dnieper River parallel to the dam was blown by the Ukrainians early in the war. Vyshenki south of Kyiv, also on the Left Bank, opposite Koncha Zaspa, a community where several high government officials and wealthy businesspeople live. There is no opportunity for a direct assault on Kyiv from Vyshenki.
As with previous operations in satellite cities like Brovary, on the Left Bank, and Irpin and Bucha on the Right Bank, the Russians have not been able to establish any sort of permanent presence, which they would need to establish fire bases, from where they can employ heavy artillery and multiple rocket launchers to attack Kyiv. Instead, and has been the case since the beginning of the war, their armored columns, operating without air cover or infantry support, get chopped up by Ukrainian defenders.
Yesterday in Irpin, a Kyiv satellite city, self-defense forces and police arrested 26 looters. According to Irpin’s mayor, Alexander Markyshin, the looters were immediately tasked with cleaning streets, dismantling collapsed structures etc.
Donbas - The command said that attacks on the Donbas have quieted and the Russians there are shelling military and civilian targets. The Ukrainian command also said that the Russians were pulling troops out of the Donbas and sending them north. Additionally, it was reported that the Russians are bringing in 1500 marines from Vladivostok to strengthen forces in occupied Donbas. Russians in the Donbas continue to encircle Marupol and continue shelling it and Severo Donetsk.
Russian friendly fire damaged a monastery of the Russian orthodox church – in Sviatohirsk, Donetsk Oblast. During the Maidan in 2013/14 the monastery served as a command base for Russian special forces that came into Ukraine to establish the pseudo-Donetsk and Luhansk republics. The friendly fire is particularly confusing as the bomb landed between the Monastery and a bridge across the Severo Donetsk river and plays an important role in linking the eastern and western parts of the Donetsk Oblast.
This makes about as much sense as the Russians destroying the Irrigation Institute in Kherson, that the Russians need to repair the North Crimea Canal supplying Crimea with fresh water.
Yesterday the Russians dropped phosphorus (napalm) bombs on Popasne in Luhansk Oblast. These bombs are outlawed by the Geneva convention.
Bombing in the West - The command also said that the Russians sent six long range bombers that released Cruise missiles on civilian airports of Lutsk, Dnipro, and Ivano Frankivsk. Russian long-range bombers also hit the army training base in Yavoriv in Lviv Oblast and military air-base in Vasylkiv Kyiv Oblast. At the same time the invaders lost 16 fighter bombers and three helicopters yesterday. Ukrainian interceptors undertook ten sorties to destroy invading fighters and took out five planes without any losses. The remaining Russian fighters were destroyed by Buk, C-300 anti-aircraft batteries and by stingers.
The South - Intimidation - Russians kidnapped a journalist in Kakhovka near Kherson, two deputies from regional administrations of Kherson and Zaporizhia, and are still holding the mayor of Melitopol. Citizens of Melitopol came out in large demonstrations yesterday demanding the release of the mayor. Local citizens say that these individuals have refused to cooperate with the invaders, refused to organize a referendum on the creation of “new republics, and are active in demonstrations against the invaders. In neighboring Zaporizhia a pro Ukrainian community worker was also taken away by the Russians. Almost all elected officials in Kherson and smaller communities are under daily telephone and SMS attacks coaxing them to create a Russian civilian administration for the region.
As was the case in 2014, Russians are attempting to recruit local Quislings to serve in municipal positions, such as the former Mayor of Sloviansk with the large shoe collection – a small-time Imelda Marcos. In Melitopol, the Russians have recruited a member of the City Council to replace the kidnapped Mayor. No word on the size of her shoe collection.
This is no different than what the Russians started doing in captured Donbas and Crimea. Plans released by Ukrainian intelligence before the invasion started indicated that the Russians intended to implement liquidation of pro Ukrainian community leaders.
In Zaporizhia oblast just north of Kherson a Russian tank drove over a civilian car with two pensioners trying to escae the war zone. The people were killed and the car destroyed.
Ukrainian forces completely neutralized a tactical battle group swinging around Mykolaiv to move towards Odesa. They also neutralized a column leaving Kherson to attack Kryvii Rih in Kirovograd Oblast. Ukrainian intelligence indicates that one reason why Odesa is not coming under amphibian attack is that 600 Russian marines on landing craft have refused to leave the craft to fight.
My Wife’s Family – An Object Lesson – Everyone is OK, but their experiences say something about the willingness of Ukrainians to help their countrymen and women.
My wife’s brother and his family live in Vyzhgorod, opposed the hydroelectric dam mentioned earlier. When Vyzhgorod came under Russian bombardment, they moved to Cherkassy Oblast, south of Kyiv, where the in-laws of my wife’s late sister is helping them.
Two of my wife’s sisters live in Koresten, a place that the Russians would need to take to block the major land route between Kyiv and Poland. My wife’s niece is CEO of the biggest hospital in Koresten, now taking in wounded from several bomb and missile strikes in the city.
My wife’s nephew, the son of another sister who recently died, moved his family to Ternopil, in Western Ukraine, where they are staying with members of the family of the mother of my wife’s late first husband. My wife’s nephew then returned to stay with is disabled brother.
In the video that is part of this email, Timothy Snyder says that the strongest indication of a nation is the ability of its citizens to help each other. If there is any doubt, Ukraine qualifies.
Serhii Plokhii & Timothy Snyder, Together - If you have any interest in current developments in Ukraine, to have Serhii Plokhii, Head of the Harvard-Ukraine Research Inst., and Yale History Professor Timothy Snyder, author of “Bloodlands,” would be like having Mick Jagger and Paul McCartney together on the same stage. This is a joint talk they gave two days ago, in Vienna. fThe talk lasts around 45 minutes, followed by a Q&A.
Article From a Chinese Think Tank – The author of this article is affiliated with a Chinese think tank located in Shanghai. If one is to believe this article, China may be considering pulling the plug on Russia. I doubt he’d be writing this article, unless he got a wink and a nod from the Boss in Beijing. I think Xi promised Putin that it would only take 3 days, and thing would be as they were before. Now that this hasn’t happened there may be consequences for China, including:
· Higher Commodity Prices – China is a big buyer of Ukrainian wheat. Because of the war, Ukraine may not export any wheat this year.
· Deteriorating Relations With Europe and the US.
· Limitations or End of “Belt & Road.”
