Bob Homans sitrep 3/11

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Excellent as usual. I’ll confirm that we continue to hear cruise missiles (?) exploding here and there. Targets must be civilian. That is a war crime, and militarily ineffective. Bob does not even mention the hyped amphibious landing supposed to be planned for Odessa. The Russians are floundering.

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Ukraine Sitrep – 3/11
Interesting Military Videos
After the War is Over – Return Moscow to its Subservient Status, Circa 1239 AD
Odesa

3/11 Sitrep – From my friend in Kyiv (my comments in this Section appear in bold face)

Mr. Undershaft of Undershaft and Lazarus, purveyors of fine munitions and equipment said, that there is no greater balm for one’s conscience than making money.  War is excellent for business.  “Major Barbara,” by George Bernard Shaw

Assistance Needs for Ukrainian Refugees - Please do not give money to people or organizations that cannot use it now.  Assistance to over two million Ukrainian refugees is needed today, not next week or next month.  Volunteer your time or money to those capable of helping refugees today. 

There are already, and soon will be more, people and organizations that ask for a financial contribution to help these refugees and or Ukraine.  Many of those asking you for money are looking to help themselves in the first instance and if anything is left over refugees or Ukraine.  Please be careful who you support.

Yesterday Ukraine’s Minister of Defense said more civilians have been killed in Ukraine than the combined number of deaths in Ukraine’s army, self-defense, border guards and police.  Killing civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure is about the best the incompetent Russian Army is capable of.

Russian Government Misinformation - Besides incompetence, Russia’s other ace in hole, is misinformation.  The Russian army command has systematically lied to its soldiers and officers, telling them that the invasion would last from 3 days to a week.  Not expecting to face a fight, and instead facing significant loss of lives and equipment, its soldiers are demoralized.  Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense said yesterday that approximately 700 soldiers have surrendered.  This does not include those taken as prisoners of war. 

Yesterday a Belarusian army platoon crossed the border and surrendered because they did not wish to be sent to Ukraine to fight alongside Russians.  Other Belarusians have joined Ukraine’s newly minted foreign legion.  Currently Ukrainian government estimates are that 15,000 non-Ukrainian nationals, from all continents have entered Ukraine to enlist in the war effort.  95% of these volunteers have military and or war zone experience.  The highest profile volunteer fighter is the son of a British Member of Parliament.

Ukraine’s refugees are a growing humanitarian crisis.  The other side of the coin of fleeing refugees are Ukrainians returning to fight.  Ukraine’s customs and immigration estimate that approximately 140,000 Ukrainians have returned to fight the Russian invasion.  The total numbers returning, and foreign volunteers approximately equals the total Russian force that remains alive.

Russia is offering amnesty to jailed offenders if they will go and fight in Ukraine.  Should Russia declare a state of war, it allows for forced conscription.  Recruiting jailed offenders, regardless of whether they have military experience, is the last step before declaring a state of war to fill dwindling ranks of invaders of Ukraine.

Chechens, like Belarusians, are also on both sides of this war.  Yesterday, reminiscent of the Battle of Stalingrad when Soviet troops fleeing from Stalingrad were summarily executed, the Russian army created a special contingent of Chechens to shoot its own Russian soldiers who were retreating or deserting. 

Chernobyl - A more dangerous role assigned to the Chechens is to prevent entry or exit of staff at Chernobyl and Enerhodar nuclear stations. 

The situation at Chernobyl is precarious because the Russians destroyed power lines to the shelter.  These power lines are critical to cool the water holding spent nuclear fuel.  The Chechens are preventing Ukrainian power line workers from repairing these lines.  The jailkeepers would be the first to suffer from a radioactive leak.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has lost its electronic connection to the monitoring equipment at these facilities.  Of greater threat is Russian bombing of the Nuclear University in Kharkiv.  This university has radioactive materials whose protective housing has been breached and small-scale radiation leaks have started.

Chechens - Most of the initial Chechen group that took part in the invasion has been liquidated.  Ukraine’s government has taken the step of informing surviving relatives that they come to Ukraine and take the corpses home for burial.  Ukraine’s action of informing relatives is infuriating Kadirov, the head of the Chehcen government because he said it places severe psychological pressure on Chechnya.

Syrians – President Putin has announced that 16,000 Syrian “volunteers” will be coming to Ukraine to help Russia capture Kyiv.   Aside from possibly not being used to the cold weather, it is unclear whether Syrians are used to fighting against an enemy that shoots back.  In addition other than some parts of Central Kyiv, the City is crisscrossed by broad avenues, rather than the narrow alleys one finds in Aleppo.   They will likely meet the same fate as the Chechens who were sent to assassinate Pres. Zelenskyy, and it shows Putin’s desperation.

Military Situation - Ukrainian counterattacks yesterday pushed invaders back along Ukraine’s northern border and Baklonova Myraivka in Chernihiv Oblast was freed.

Russians sent cruise missiles and rockets against Baryshivka and Bilohorod Kyiv Oblast, the city of Chernihiv, Lebelyn Sumy Oblast, Nizhin Chernihiv Oblast, Lutsk Volyn Oblast, Ivano Frankivsk, Dnipro and Lozovatsi Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.  

Baryshivka and Bilohorod are both Kyiv suburbs, on the Right and Left Bank of the Dnieper River respectively.   Ivano Frankivsk and Lutsk are both oblast capitals in Western Ukraine, with Lutsk being very close to the place where Ukraine, Belarus and Poland meet.   During Soviet Times, Ivano Frankivsk was a “closed city.”  It was the major site for the Soviet Union’s defense electronics industry.   Lozovatsi is located just north of the city of Kryvyi Rih, Pres. Zelenskyy’s hometown.   Dnipro is a large city that contains significant portions of Ukraine’s defense industry, mostly rockets.   It is also the place where both Nikita Khrushchev and Leonid Breshnev began their rise in the Soviet Communist Party hierarchy.

Yesterday’s rocket attack on Baryshivka was accompanied by ground forces which were beaten back.  Ground attacks also took place in Irpin and Makarov.  These attacks were also beaten back.  The most visible attack yesterday was at Kalinivka on the outskirts of Brovary.  Ukrainian forces destroyed ten Russian tanks in that attack.  This is the You Tube video of that attack.   The video contains commentary from a retired U.S. Army Major General.   Note that the tanks were not accompanied by infantry that would, if present, have been able to engage the Ukrainians who were using anti-tank rockets.  Also not present was any air cover from the Russian Airforce.

Brovary, a suburb northeast of Kyiv, contains several manufacturing facilities, including the Coca-Cola Bottling Plant.  It is unclear why the tanks are there, as it is likely that the Ukrainians would blow up the bridges across the Dnieper, and thus block the tanks from entering Kyiv. 

In addition to rocket and cruise missile strikes, Russia bombed Chernihiv.  The aerial bombs destroyed a water main which is currently under repair.  Ukrainian forces captured 10 working tanks, an anti-aircraft battery, and a transport vehicle in the battles in Chernihiv Oblast yesterday.  They destroyed a ballistic rocket division.

A bomb destroyed an electricity substation in Kharkiv and some civilian infrastructure.  Work is underway to repair the substation.  Russian military communications were intercepted in Kharkiv.  This intercepted communication indicated that the invaders were thinking of destroying a warehouse of ammonia nitrate fertilizer.  The Kharkiv warehouse has more ammonia fertilizer than Beirut harbor warehouse which destroyed the port of Beirut three years ago.

Ukraine also contains one of the world’s two large ammonia pipelines.   The other one is the United States.   The ammonia pipeline in Ukraine runs north and south and terminates in Odesa.   Any rupture of that pipeline would result in thousands of casualties.

Russians damaged the high-pressure natural gas line and occupied a compressor station on the main line which transits one third of Russian natural gas through Ukraine.  Staff at the compression station is not allowed to leave and the Invaders are trying to convince them to train them on operations.

Mariupol remains surrounded and under constant artillery and bombing attacks.  No evacuation of women and children was allowed.  In addition, the Russians now require that all leaving Mariupol destroy their mobile phones to prevent refugees from filming the evacuation.

Severodonetsk, Rubizhno and Lisichansk in Luhansk Oblast were shelled and hit with ballistic missiles all day.  Water was restored in Lisichansk yesterday.

The city of Dnipro was hit by three aerial bombs yesterday.  Korosten in Zhytomir Oblast was shelled yesterday.  The city of Ivano Frankivsk was hit by three aerial bombs.   It has also been reported that approximately 70% of the residents of Korosten have left the City.

Kherson and Mykolaiv are both cities near the Black Sea.  Kherson is located at the mouth of the Dnieper River and Mykolaiv, the major port and shipbuilding center, is between Kherson and Odesa.  Kherson, which is theoretically under Russian control, was bombed last night by Russian planes. Mykolaiv self-defense forces and Ukrainian military with air support destroyed two columns approaching the city.  Mykolaiv municipal authorities report that paratrooper platoons, including tanks, armored personnel carriers and supporting vehicles were destroyed.

In the Air - Ukraine’s air defense forces reported downing nine SU-25 and a SU-34 fighter bombers.  The air defense also reported damaging but not downing ten other fighter bombers.  One of the downed aircraft was hit by a stinger and three of the damaged planes were also hit by stingers.  The air defense command also reported that Ukrainian planes took part in destroying invading ground forces.  This is the first time that the air defense command has made this claim since the start of the invasion.

Over the last three days I have regularly heard military jets flying overhead.  9 out of ten occasions there was no air raid siren.  This means our pilots control the sky over Kyiv.

Informative Videos -

A Small Unit Operating Near Kyiv - This video is important, because it shows how well-armed the small units that are the backbone of the Ukrainian Army are.   One can see Ukrainian soldiers carrying the British-supplied short-range anti-tank rocket, and the German late-generation Panzerfaust.   From the video the concern expressed by some, about weapons deliveries getting to the troops in the field, is unfounded.     The delivery routes, from Poland Romania and Slovakia, both road and rail, are too diverse and spread out for the Russians to close all of them.

Interview with H.R. McMaster, LTG (Ret.), and former National Security Advisor – McMaster predicts that Ukraine will win.   In 1991, McMaster became famous for the tank attack at “73 Easting,” named after a set of coordinates on a U.S. Army operational map, where tanks under then Capt. McMaster’s command wiped out a large portion of Iraq’s Republican Guard.  In the video, McMaster spoke about the Russians using fire bases, from where rocket and artillery attacks are launched against Ukrainian cities.   The United States made extensive use of fire bases during the Vietnam War/McMaster recommends that the United States and its NATO partners provide Ukraine with whatever is necessary to attack and take out the fire bases.

Odesa –

In 2005, around the time I first went to Ukraine, this article about Odesa appeared in the Economist.  Odesa is now a major Russian objective.   Odesa was commissioned by Catherine the Great, and one of its first mayors was Duc de Richelieu, the Grand Nephew of Cardinal Richelieu who, for all intents and purposes, ruled France at the time of Louis XIII.

Reading this article had a significant influence in my wanting to go back to Ukraine.  The article was written at about the time of the 2004/2005 Orange Revolution, and the thesis was that perhaps Odesa, with its tradition of openness, would become a positive influence on Ukraine becoming more open to free enterprise and the Rule of Law.  It didn’t quite turn out that way in 2005, but it may yet have the influence on Ukraine’s rebirth that was predicted in 2005.

In September 2008 I was having lunch with the Director of Finance of the City of Odesa, when he told me of the collapse of Lehman Brother.   There is probably not a more appropriate place than Odesa to hear about a financial calamity.

It would be the height of irony if the Russians laid a hand on Odesa, a city that the Russians like to think is part of Novorossiya.  The citizens of Odesa, patriots of Ukraine, have other ideas