Bob Homans September 12

20220913

Ukraine – 9/12 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans
Twitter: @rhomansjr
September 12, 2022

So Much Going on – So Little Time

In Ukraine, events seem to be moving very quickly so, rather than waiting until  tomorrow when even more events unfold, I’ll try to address some of the items that are on my browser tabs today.

Aleksandr Nevzorov

Journalist, former Duma Member and Putin Critic, now citizen of Ukraine.   Last March 10th Nevzorov gave a brief talk about Russia’s latest invasion, where he pretty much predicted what has happened to Russia since last February 24th, when their latest invasion began.  It is well-worth watching and very funny, especially when he ridicules the pundits (a subject near to my heart).   In Russian with English subtitles.

A New Take on “Lend Lease”

Ukrainians showing off abandoned Russian equipment and, most importantly, ammunition.   In Ukrainian, no subtitles needed.   The Ukrainians in the video talk about all the Russian  equipment and ammunition falling into  their hands as a version of “Lend Lease.”

Developments in the Kharkiv & Kherson Regions

Today, there are many rumors about Russian troops trapped on the Right Bank of the Dnieper River entering into surrender negotiations.   I have met Natalia Gumenyuk, press officer for Ukraine’s Southern Command, whose jurisdiction includes Kherson.   Natalia is an experienced journalist, and a graduate of the Draper Hills Summer Program at Stanford.  Until Natalia says something about Russians surrendering, for me it will only be rumors.

The Latest Denys

In his video, Denys speculates that the bulk of Russian forces that Ukraine had hoped to trap in Izyum got out.   He also spoke about the Russian missile strikes against several electrical substations, knocking out power to Kharkiv and other cities.  Apparently, most of the power has been restored.

How We Got Here

The Spectator – Excellent analysis of Ukraine’s successes around Kharkiv.

Tim Ash – “Lets Talk” – In his latest Substack post, Tim discusses the possibilities of peace negotiations and possible outcomes.  Tim ends with this prediction, with which I agree, “at this stage a total collapse of Russian forces across Ukraine is entirely possible - including that held before Feb 24, including Crimea, and even talk about potential splits in Moscow and risks to Putin’s stay in power.”

“Breaking Defense” – Discusses Russia’s challenges in dealing with supply of artillery and re-supply generally.   It cannot help that Russia seems to have lost so much ammunition during their evacuation of the Kharkiv Region.   The article addresses a subject not often brought up – maintenance of their artillery pieces.   The pundits always talk about how many artillery pieces Russia has, but very little about mundane subjects like metal fatigue on the barrels, etc., a subject that doesn’t appear to be high on Russia’s list of priorities.

Ian Bremmer – Founder of Eurasia Group.  He gives an excellent analysis on how we got here and what may happen in the future.  What people are beginning to realize is how little the Soviet experts, active in policymaking circles during the period of the collapse of the Soviet Union, knew so little about Ukraine.  Unfortunately, many are still around, and many cannot seem to avoid looking at events through a Russian lens.  Bremmer, who said he started his PhD in 1989, the year the Berlin Wall came down, is an exception.

Someone, I forget who, one said that unless an empire keeps expanding that it implodes.