Ukraine – 9/17/2023 Sitrep
By: Robert Homans & Bohdan Chomiak
September 17, 2023
The Biggest Surprise of the War (So Far)
Speaking for the two of us, it’s not the fact that Ukraine is winning the war, or that the war has lasted more than 5 days.
For me, the biggest surprise has occurred in the least likely place, at sea. It includes Ukraine’s continuing emasculation of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the effective loss of Sevastopol Harbor as a sanctuary for the Fleet, and the almost complete loss of Russian air control over Western Crimea, including Sevastopol Harbor.
Given the fact that Ukraine has no navy (at least by conventional standards), I cannot imagine any Western observer concluding that Ukraine would’ve effectively brought the Black Sea Fleet to its knees. Ironically, Ukraine gets criticized by the pundits for being unable to conduct combined arms operations on land and in the air, with only limited fixed-wing aircraft notwithstanding. However, combined arms operations is exactly what Ukraine is going at sea and in the air, with their sea drones and their mixing and matching airborne drones and cruise missiles.
Nautically, there is one other area to watch, whether Ukraine can achieve complete control over the Mouth of the Dnipro, including the Kinburn Spit. The potential upside for Ukraine is substantial, including:
· Effective control over the Dnipro, downstream from Kherson City and up to Nova Khakovka, allowing Ukraine to construct temporary bridges across the river, strong enough to accommodate heavy equipment such as tanks, creating the possibility for another front and an additional entrance to Crimea, one that is physically the closest to Ukrainian-held territory.
· Effective control over the Mouth of the Dnipro, including the Kinburn Spit, would allow Ukraine to begin using Mykolaiv as a port, for grain exports.
Another Russian Ship Hit
According to the latest “Reporting From Ukraine,” another Russian corvette capable of launching cruise missiles, was hit by a seaborne the drone. The drone is of a recent design allowing it to operate in rough seas. High waves make the drones much harder to find and to hit.
There is a picture of the ship being towed into Sevastopol Harbor, settling by the stern, and slightly listing to port. Because of the recent destruction of the drydock facilities in Sevastopol, Russia will not be able to repair that ship without moving it to another port, most likely Novorossiysk. This will give Ukraine another opportunity to finish her off when the ship is under tow from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. There will be few, if any, Russian surface ships that can provide a protective screen for the damaged corvette.
He also reports that Ukraine is working on new upgrades that would give sea drones a stand-off capability, meaning that they wouldn’t have to physically hit their target. They are also working on incorporating AII, allowing the drones to reach their targets without any active guidance, and adding smoke generating equipment and chaff, both of which would make detection more difficult.
“A Trip to Ukraine Clarified the Stakes. And They’re Huge”/Thomas Friedman, NY Times
The left side of the photograph at the beginning of Friedman’s column partially shows a statue that includes Queen Olga. She ruled as a regent for her son from AD 945 until AD 960. Olga was not a nice person. With her opponents she was unforgiving. It is poetic justice that Queen Olga now watches over a fleet of rusting Russian tanks.
It is tradition that on their wedding day, couples go to the plaza of St. Michael’s Cathedral, where the rusting Russian tanks now rest, to pay respects to Queen Olga. We paid our respects on October 4, 2008, almost 15 years ago. It is only thanks to the war that I realize the significance of paying one’s respects to Olga of Kyiv on one’s wedding day.
Here are some excerpts:
· “Most Americans don’t know a lot about Ukraine, but I say this without any hyperbole: Ukraine is a game-changing country for the West, for better or for worse depending on the war’s outcome. Its integration into the European Union and NATO someday would constitute a power shift that could rival the fall of the Berlin Wall and German unification.”
· “Putin knows that. His war, in my view, has never been primarily about countering NATO expansion. It has always been much more about stopping a Slavic Ukraine from joining the European Union and becoming a successful counter example to Putin’s Slavic thieving autocracy.”
· “It is very hard to stop a leader who has no shame or conscience. On Tuesday Putin told an economic conference in Russia that the 91 felony counts filed against Donald Trump in four different U.S. jurisdictions represent the “persecution of one’s political rival for political motives” and show “the rottenness of the American political system, which cannot pretend to teach democracy to others.” The hall erupted in applause for a leader renowned for using poison underwear, an exploding airplane and Siberian labor camps to “teach democracy” to his rivals.” (my emphasis)
· “Don’t get me wrong, this is a Ukrainian army ready to fight on — and any politician in this country, including Zelensky, who just hints at a territorial compromise will be run out of office.”
The Ukrainian Greek Catholic Churcch (UGCC) and the Bishop of Rome
As the article states, “the 1596 Union of Brest re-established full communion between the Bishop of Rome and several ecclesiastical jurisdictions in Eastern Europe, what we know today as the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church (UGCC).” Since then, the UGCC has often been marginalized and persecuted, as part of successive efforts by the Bishop of Rome to re-establish relations with the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC).
Most recently Francis I, the Bishop of Rome, urged Russian Catholics “to draw on the best of Russian history and culture in building their country’s future—and then, eighteen months into a brutal Russian imperial war on and in Ukraine, cited as exemplars of Russian greatness Peter the Great and Catherine the Great, two historical embodiments of aggressive Russian imperialism.”
The Bishop of Rome has subsequently tried to walk back his remarks, and he hastily arranged a meeting with UGCC leaders to try to begin to resolve what has been in conflict ever since the Union of Brest. One of the things that the Bishop of Rome can do to begin the process of reconciliation, is for him to make a speech, breaking off any effort by the Catholic Church to reconcile with the ROC, as long as the ROC is an organ of the Russian State and not an independent religion and, at the same time, foster stronger bonds between both the Catholic Church and the UGCC and the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which gained its independence in January 2019 via a “Tomos” issued by Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I of Constantinople.
I’m not holding my breath.
9/17/2023 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon September 16 to 12:00 noon September 17, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Sunday, September 17
12:11 am: Bulgarian Prime Minister Mykola Denkov strongly refused to negotiate with farmers who plan to block roads on Monday in protest against the lifting of the embargo on grain supplies from Ukraine.
● According to him, "agricultural producers cannot claim that the state does not care about them when it allocates them more than 2 billion levs (1 billion euros), [...] they cannot say that Europe does not interest them when most of the funds, which they receive in the form of subsidies and aid, are European."
● The head of the government advised manufacturers to first refuse EU funds, and only then to ban the import of products from Ukraine.
12:52 am: Lithuania calls for more money for Ukraine during the EU budget review.
● "If you divide the amount of euros in the proposal by four years, it will be less than this year. Therefore, our proposal is to reach the same level as in 2023 - it will be 72 billion," she said.
8:21 am: U.S. Naval Forces Europe and Danish Armed Forces will conduct a joint convoy defense exercise using the modern SM-6 containerized missile launcher, starting on September 18 on the island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea - 6th Fleet press release USA.
Saturday, September 16
1:17 pm: UNESCO has included St. Sophia Cathedral, Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra and the center of Lviv on the list of endangered heritage.
● This is reported on the United Nations website.
● The organization believes that these objects are vulnerable to shock waves caused by the bombing of Kyiv and Lviv.
1:36 pm: Ukraine received 3D printers from the USA for printing components for military equipment, Voice of America writes.
● According to William Laplante, assistant to the head of the US Department of Defense for procurement, Ukrainian specialists have already been trained to use them. He explained that thanks to the printers, the process of repairing equipment for the battlefield will be much faster.
● Ukraine is also using the 3-D printers to produce components for their sea drones, making them far easier to produce and upgrade in response to local conditions.
2:38 pm: The German company Quantum Systems will hand over 100 tactical drones of the new generation to Kyiv. And the capital will direct the equipment of the Ukrainian defenders to the front.
● Vitaliy Klitschko agreed on this with the investor and company management today at the annual summit of the Stern Stewart Institute, which is taking place in Germany.
3:29 pm: From September 17, Poland bans passenger cars registered in Russia from entering the country.
● This was announced by the Minister of Internal Affairs of Poland, Mariusz Kaminski.
6:06 pm: The Slovak government has banned the import of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds from Ukraine until the end of 2023.
● Aktuality writes about this with reference to the statement of the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Ludovit Odor.
● "We must prevent excessive pressure on the Slovak market to remain fair to domestic farmers," he said.
6:27 pm: Britain's National Crime Agency (NCA) has dropped its investigation into alleged sanctions evasion by Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman.
● This is reported by Bloomberg with reference to the statement of the spokesperson of the NCA.
● "The NCA can confirm that it will take no further action against Michael Friedman based on the warrant issued at Athlone House in December 2022," the spokesman said.
8:47 pm: North Macedonia expels three more Russian diplomats.
● This was reported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of North Macedonia, Radio Svoboda reports.
● In total, the Balkan country has already expelled at least 11 Russian diplomats.
9:41 pm: Turkey "can go different ways with the EU" if necessary.
● This was stated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Reuters reports.
● "The European Union is taking steps to distance itself from Turkey. We assess the situation considering these events," Erdogan said.
NATIONAL
Sunday, September 17
12:31 am: Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk regions - air alert! - OVA
12:31 am: Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv - the threat of using ballistic weapons. - reported the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
3:27 am: Probable movement of attack UAVs from the Black Sea in the direction of the southern regions, - Defense Forces of the South of Ukraine
3:57 am: Alarm in the southern regions: the threat of UAVs, as well as several Tu-95s over the Caspian Sea. Possible missile strike, - Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine
4:34 am: Eastern, southeastern regions - missile danger, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
4:35 am: Tactical air activity in the South. The threat of anti-aircraft missile launches on the front-line territories in the Kherson region, - Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine
5:06 am: A group of rockets is moving from the east in a southwest direction (course subject to change). Do not ignore air alarm signals, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
5:09 am: Rockets on the border of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Moving in the western direction - the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
5:25 am: Rivne, Khmelnytskyi regions - air alert! - OVA
6:59 am: Repulse missile threat, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
7:43 am: Today, the Russian Federation carried out air and missile strikes on Ukraine. Information regarding the consequences of this terrorist attack is currently being clarified, - General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● During the past 24 hours, more than 30 combat clashes took place. About 100 settlements in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions came under artillery fire.
● During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces made 2 strikes on control points, 12 - on areas of concentration of personnel of weapons and military equipment, and 5 - on anti-aircraft missile complexes of the Russian Federation, - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● 3 Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile systems and 5 artillery pieces were hit by units of the missile forces.
8:39 am: During the night, air defense forces destroyed 12 air targets, - Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● A total of 16 means of air attack were recorded:
● 6 shock UAVs of the "Shahed-136/131" type;
● 10 X-101/X-555/X-55 air-launched missiles.
● The main direction of the attack is the south of Odesa.
Saturday, September 16
12:30 p.m.: 17 UAV strike companies have been completed in Ukraine as part of the "Drone Army" project.
● Another 50 are in the process of assembly.
● 53 new drum pickups were purchased by Favbet. All of them are already at the front performing combat tasks.
● Unmanned aerial vehicle strike companies are the response of the Defense Forces of Ukraine to the challenges of technological warfare. The project is being implemented as part of the "Army of Drones" with the participation of the General Staff, the State Intelligence Service, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Digital Transformation and the UNITED24 fundraising platform.
12:55 pm Operational Command South: Defense forces destroyed three Russian boats with crews in the southern direction.
● "Minus 5 large-caliber guns for the past day, minus 18 occupiers and 3 more boats on which they tried to maneuver among the islands and place their observation points there. One of these points was also destroyed," she said.
● In addition, according to her, as of now, in various directions, the Defense Forces managed to advance by 3-4 km. But to be effective, you need to clear a lane of at least 30 km.
2:18 pm: Ukraine will be able to attack Russian ships with drones more often, — Minister of Innovation and Technology Mykhailo Fedorov.
● "There will be more drones, more attacks and fewer Russian ships. That's for sure," Fedorov told Reuters when asked about the recent explosions in Crimea.
4:35 p.m.: Special forces of the Security Service of Ukraine arranged another "heavenly punishment" on Russians with FPV drones. Soldiers of CSO "A" of the SBU in a few weeks destroyed:
● 13 tanks
● 28 BBM
● 15 artillery systems
● 32 units of automotive equipment
● 2 means of observation
● 40 firing positions and fortifications
● In addition, in coordination with fellow artillerymen of the Armed Forces, 4 more anti-aircraft guns, 6 artillery systems and an electronic warfare station were hit and about 50 occupants were eliminated.
7:55 pm Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on September 16:
● "During the day, 30 combat clashes took place. The enemy launched 8 missile and more than 50 air strikes, launched 22 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
● Also, the civilian population of the city of Kharkiv suffered from cynical rocket attacks.
● More than 15 private residential buildings were destroyed and damaged, the lyceum and other civil infrastructure were destroyed."
● "According to the results of the offensive (assault) actions, our soldiers are successful in the Klishchiivka area of the Donetsk region."
● "In some settlements of the Berdyansk district of the Zaporizhzhia region, the Russian occupation troops are quartered in the private houses of local residents.
● At the same time, the practice of releasing private houses after carrying out filtering measures and forced resettlement of local residents in groups of several families in one house is spreading.
● "During the day, the Air Force of the Defense Forces carried out 2 strikes on control points, 12 on the areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, and 5 on the enemy's anti-aircraft missile systems.
● Units of the missile forces hit 3 Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile complexes and 5 artillery pieces of the enemy.
9:34 pm: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia regions - missile danger, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
10:20 pm: Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv regions - threat of ballistic weapons use. - reported the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
10:54 pm: The Ministry of Energy has already developed shutdown schedules, but no blackouts are planned.
● Deputy Minister of Energy Svitlana Grynchuk said that the new heating season will be difficult in Ukraine. However, Ukrainian energy engineers are ready for future challenges due to a possible repetition of Russian missile terror.
● She said that now everything necessary is being done for better preparation for the next heating season.
11:10 pm: The Ukrainian national team at the "Invictus Games" showed the best result in the entire history of performances.
● Our athletes won 34 medals: 12 gold, 14 silver and 8 bronze.
11:26 pm: The body of a British volunteer was found in Ukraine, — Sky News
● 36-year-old former paratrooper Daniel Burke came to Ukraine last year. Burke disappeared from his apartment in Zaporozhye in early August.
MORDOR - ruZZia
Sunday, September 17
12:55 am: Recorded takeoff near 7 sides of Tu-95ms from "Olenya" airfield.
● If the sortie is a combat sortie, the approximate time of approach of the rockets (depending on the launch lines) is about 4-5 hours.
● This was reported by the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
4:03 am: "Carpet" mode has been introduced at Moscow airports, - rosZMI.
● Departure and arrival flights are delayed at Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo.
4:14 am: Air defense allegedly repelled a drone attack on Moscow in the city district of Istra, the mayor of the Russian capital Sobyanin said.
● According to preliminary data, there was no damage or injuries at the place where the debris fell.
6:59 am: Another drone, which allegedly tried to attack Moscow, was shot down in the Ramenskyi district of the Moscow region - the mayor of Moscow Sobyanin.
7:07 am: At night, air defense equipment allegedly shot down a drone over the Domodedovsky District of the Moscow region, - Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
7:17 am: In the Oryol region of the Russian Federation, a drone attacked an oil depot - rosZMI
● The governor of the region Andriy Klychkov said that the drone fell "on a non-residential object in the Railway district". According to him, the place of the fall was surrounded, there were no victims.
7:29 am: The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced that six drones were allegedly shot down over the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea overnight.
8:21 am: Kim Jong-un discussed strengthening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia with Shoigu, - Yonhap.
Saturday, September 16
3:08 pm: Russia is preparing to attack the Ukrainian energy system, - British intelligence.
● Since April 2023, the pace of spending on cruise missiles has decreased, while the Russian leadership constantly emphasizes efforts to increase the pace of production of such missiles.
● The British assume that Russia is creating a significant stockpile of missiles, which it will direct again at Ukrainian infrastructure facilities in a few months.
5:22 pm: New satellite images of the Russian frigate Admiral Makarov, which was damaged during the attack on Sevastopol on October 29, 2022, appeared online.
● The pictures show that the frigate still cannot move on its own, as it is being towed by two boats.
● Images were taken on September 15, 2023.
5:46 pm: In a year and a half, the Armed Forces destroyed more than $34 billion worth of Russian equipment, — Forbes.
● "Russia spends about $300 million per day on the war with Ukraine, and the Russian budget spent more in January-June 2023 than it planned to spend for the whole year of 2023," the report says.
● Direct military costs and the cost of lost equipment of the Russian Federation for 18 months of the war (from February 24, 2022 to August 24, 2023) amount to about $167.3 billion.
7:35 pm: Russia has redeployed three large amphibious ships from the Black Sea to the Azov Sea, Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said.
● According to him, this happened after the attacks on the landing ship "Minsk" and the submarine "Rostov-on-Don" in Sevastopol.
9:21 pm: North Korea may increase the supply of 152-mm artillery shells to Russia.
● The Guardian writes about this with reference to the statement of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, Mark Milley.
● "Is it going to make a big difference? I'm skeptical about it," Milley said.
REGIONS
KHARKIV
Sunday, September 17
12:28 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kharkiv.
Saturday, September 16
1:55 pm Kharkiv RMA: Russians during the latest attack hit 5 S-300 missiles on the Kholodnohirsky district of Kharkiv.
● 5 civilians were injured, their condition is light and medium, there is no threat to life. Emergency services are already working on the spot to eliminate the consequences.
DONETSK
Saturday, September 16
4:10 pm: The third assault brigade showed how it liberated Andriyivka, Donetsk region.
● "The enemy was firing mortars, and the bursts of mines were getting closer and closer. The stormtroopers continued to hunt the enemy in the middle of the battlefield — in a populated area teeming with Russians," the press service writes.
ZAPORIZHIA
Saturday, September 16
6:04 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Tokmak of the Zaporizhia region.
10:32 pm: Defense forces destroyed the location of Russian military equipment on the outskirts of temporarily occupied Tokmak.
● This was announced by the mayor of temporarily occupied Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov.
● "This week from the city:
● the "passport table" was evacuated, the Ausweiss promised to issue it in Melitopol (passport - ed.);
● FSB employees and part of the administration were "heroically" taken out," the report says.
10:37 pm: Zaporizhzhia region - missile danger.
DNIPRO
Sunday, September 17
10:04 am Dnipro RMA: At night, the Russians fired more than half a dozen shells at the Pokrovsk village. People are whole.
● One missile was also destroyed over Dnipropetrovsk region.
Saturday, September 16
7:20 pm Dnipro RMA: During the day, the Russian army shelled Nikopolshchyna with heavy artillery and drones seven times.
● "The infrastructural facility was damaged. A three-story building and a private house were mutilated. There were no deaths or injuries," Lysak writes.
KHERSON
Sunday, September 17
7:27 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
9:15 am Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kherson.
9:24 am: Russians shelled Mykilske, - Kherson OVA.
● At night, the medical facility came under fire from the Russians. As a result of the impact, the FAP building was damaged. Windows and doors are broken here, the interior is gutted.
10:29 am: Over the past day, the Russians carried out 77 shellings of the Kherson region, firing 334 shells from mortars, artillery, Grads, UAVs, tanks and aircraft. 13 shells were fired in the city of Kherson, - the head of the OVA Oleksandr Prokudin.
● They aimed at the residential quarters of the settlements of the region; to an educational institution and two hydrotechnical structures in Beryslav district. One person was injured.
Saturday, September 16
12:13 pm: In the Kherson region, the occupation authorities deport another 20 Ukrainian children to Russia.
● The occupation administration of the Kherson region announced that they had signed an agreement to send 20 children to the "Ocean" children's camp in the Primorsky Krai.
● It is noted that the children are sent for an indefinite period.
4:56 pm Kherson RMA: Russians shelled a residential building in Beryslav.
● a 63-year-old woman was injured in her own apartment.
● The victim was hospitalized in moderate condition. Now she is receiving medical care.
10:14 pm Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
MYKOLAIV
Sunday, September 17
4:02 am Social Networks: Explosions were heard in the Mykolayiv region. Previously, the work of air defense.
ODESA
Sunday, September 17
5:08 am: Enemy BpLA in the south of Odeshchyna, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
5:12 am: Izmailskyi district, stay in safe places until the air alarm goes off, Oleg Kiper, head of Odesa OVA.
5:58 am: Cruise missiles have changed course and are heading in the direction of Odesa, - Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
10:55 am: The Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine published the results of the shelling of Odesa.
● It is reported that the Russians damaged the agricultural infrastructure: the land and the granary.
POLTAVA
Sunday, September 17
5:24 am: Cruise missiles are heading in the direction of Kremenchuk, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
CHERKASY
Sunday, September 17
5:27 am: Cruise missiles are headed in the direction of Cherkasy, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
5:32 am: Cruise missiles are headed in the direction of Uman, - Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://t.me/uawarinfographics
https://t.me/svoboda_radio