Ukraine – 10/8/2023 Sitrep
By: Bohdan Chomiak & Robert Homans
October 8, 2023
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Israel and Ukraine
In 2008 I spent a total of 6 weeks staying in Ramallah, West Bank/Palestine. Admittedly, the West Bank is not the equivalent of Gaza. The former is under Israeli military occupation, whereas the latter is not. The former is under the civil control of Fata; the latter is under the control of Hamas. Having spent time in both Ukraine and West Bank/Palestine, and from working with Palestinians, I think it gives me some basis to make some observations, especially the lessons Ukraine might draw from yesterday’s attack by Hamas against Israel, and how the events of the last 36 hours might change Israel’s stance toward Ukraine:
· The value of security guarantees? – Israel has a security guarantee with the United States. What happened yesterday was not the result of the U.S. reneging on its security guarantee; instead, it appears to be at least partly the result of lapses in readiness and intelligence within Israel. Ukraine will be interested to see how the guarantor, the U.S., will implement its commitments to Israel, and what lessons Ukraine might learn.
· The democratic process sometimes gives confusing signals to totalitarians – Both Israel and Ukraine are vibrant democracies, each with a free press, and each with fundamental disagreements between individuals and various groups that often spill over into the streets, and both with totalitarian next-door neighbors that are bent on their destruction. It is possible that Hamas miscalculated, when looking at the dispute that has arisen in Israel over changes to Israel’s Supreme Court, that has included military reservists refusing to go to work. As Serhii Plokhy has pointed out, in his book “The Russo Ukraine War,” Russia’s miscalculations regarding Ukraine goes back to Ukraine’s independence, in 1991, causing Russia to continue to make what I have often referred to in these emails as “a series of idiotic mistakes,” the biggest being made on Feb. 24, 2022.
· The actions of the invaders – For Ukrainians who watched the atrocities committed by Hamas, they can be excused if they thought what they were watching was a repeat of the atrocities in Bucha, Irpin, Mariupol, Izyum, and many other Ukrainian towns and cities that found themselves under temporary occupation.
Israel has been reluctant to support Ukraine, to the extent that might be reasonably expected, for several reasons, likely including the involvement of both Israel and the Russian Federation in the conflict in Syria and, perhaps, a large number Israeli citizens of Russian origin, many of whom emigrated during Soviet times. Their dispute was with the Soviet Union, but not necessarily with the Russian Federation.
Hopefully the events of the past 36 hours will change Israel’s calculus toward Ukraine.
“Biden wants to ask Congress for largest aid package for Ukraine worth US$100 billion”/Ukrainska Pravda
· Last week, on one of the Sunday political talk shows, Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-South Carolina) discussed a $60-$70 billion Fiscal Year 2024 package for Ukraine that would be part of legislation that would include funding for increased security for the Southern Border of the U.S.
· Senators from both Parties seem to agree that further funding for Ukraine will be part of a broader bill that would include funding for border security.
·
· I don’t know if the $100 million cited by Ukrainska Pravda includes money for the southern border.
· The bill will likely be introduced in the Senate, but using a House bill that was awaiting Senate action. They’ll strip out the original language, replace it with the necessary provisions, pass it on a bipartisan basis, and send it back to the House. This way the Senate addresses the requirement that is in the Constitution, that all spending bills must be initiated in the House.
· This was how the Senate drafted their version of the Continuing Resolution, that they were planning to send to the House to prevent a government shut-down.
Stay tuned.
News From the Battlefield
“Reporting From Ukraine” covers Ukraine’s effort to widen their incursion south of Orikhiv, by moving against a village west of Robytene.
Russia’s defensive strategy seems to be to launch counterattacks, designed to prevent Ukraine from consolidating their gains. This is the only explanation I for Russians losing so much equipment, at a time when they’re supposedly on the defensive.
It is worth keeping in mind that the villages that Ukraine and Russia are fighting over are just that – villages. Most of the residents have left.
10/8/2023 Sitrep
Russian Invasion of Ukraine 12:00 noon September October 7 to 12:00 noon October 8, 2023
Abbreviations:
RMA = Regional Military Administration SBU = Security Service of Ukraine
RASHISTS = russian Facists/all russian invaders
INTERNATIONAL
Sunday, October 8
7:46 AM: US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Ben Cardin intends to introduce a bill that would provide Israel with the necessary tools for self-defense.
● This is stated in the report of the committee.
● It is, in particular, about the replenishment of anti-missile defense for the "iron dome" and the allocation of additional funding.
8:05 AM: The first phase of the operation is over, most of the enemy's forces on the territory of the country have been destroyed - Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu.
8:05 AM: China called on Israel and Palestine to cease fire and protect civilians, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said.
8:05 AM: Turkey offers help to end and bring under control the conflict between Palestine and Israel, so that it does not spread to a larger area, - Turkish Foreign Ministry.
10:06 AM: The Lebanese organization "Hezbollah" supported the Palestinian attack on Israel and shelled Israeli positions - Welt newspaper.
● The militants fired a large number of rockets and grenades and hit Israeli positions in the disputed area, Hezbollah said, adding that their attack was a show of solidarity with the Palestinians.w
10:39 AM: The October 7 attack on Israel by the terrorist group Hamas could be one of the biggest Israeli intelligence failures since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Bloomberg.*
● The agency said the attack included dozens of infiltrations on land and at sea, as well as missile strikes, indicating a sophisticated attack involving planning and coordination that intelligence services should have anticipated.
11:48 AM: A powerful earthquake struck Afghanistan, killing more than 2,000 people.
● More than 9,000 people were injured, Reuters reports, citing information from a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Natural Disasters.
● 1.3 thousand houses were damaged. According to the US Geological Survey, the earthquake occurred 35 km northwest of the city of Herat, with a magnitude of up to 6.3.
Saturday, October 8
2:18 PM: Ukraine strongly condemns the terrorist attacks on Israel, including rocket attacks on civilians in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, — the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
● The Ministry also calls on citizens of Ukraine to refrain from visiting the central and southern regions of Israel, to remain vigilant and closely monitor the messages of local competent authorities to increase awareness of the development of events.
2:42 PM: Terrible news from Israel. My condolences to all those whose family and friends lost their lives in the terrorist attack. We believe that order will be restored and terrorists will be destroyed - Volodymyr Zelenskyi on the events in Israel.
● "Israel's right to defense cannot be doubted. All the circumstances of this terrorist attack must be clarified so that the world knows and brings to justice everyone who incited the attack and helped organize it. Every life matters! We condemn every manifestation of terror," the president emphasized of Ukraine.
2:53 PM: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation expressed "the most serious concern" about the terrorist attack on Israel.
● It is ironic that the Russian agency claims that the situation "does not have a forceful solution and can be resolved exclusively by political and diplomatic means."
● "We consider the current large-scale escalation of the situation as another extremely dangerous manifestation of a closed circle of violence," said Russia, which is continuing its armed aggression against Ukraine for the second year.
3:50 PM: The US is ready to provide Israel with everything necessary for self-defense, the Pentagon said.
● "The United States "unequivocally condemns the unprovoked attacks by Hamas terrorists against Israeli civilians," said White House National Security Council representative Adrienne Watson.
04:04 PM: ISW analyzed how the Kremlin is using the situation in Israel against Ukraine
Analysts note that the Kremlin has already used and will probably continue to use Hamas attacks on Israel to promote information operations aimed at reducing US and Western support and attention to Ukraine.
● The Kremlin activated several information operations afterattacks by Hamasin Israel on October 7, primarily accusing the West of neglecting conflicts in the Middle East in favor of supporting Ukraine.
● The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, said that the United States and its allies should "busy" work on a "Palestinian-Israeli settlement" and not "interfere" in Russia's affairs and provide military aid to Ukraine.
● The Russian Foreign Ministry accused the West of blocking the efforts of the necessary "quartet" of Russia, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations, which led to the escalation of violence, placing responsibility for the current hostilities on the West.
● Russian propagandist Serhii Mardan said that Russia would benefit from the escalation, as the world "will turn its attention away from Ukraine for a while and will once again focus on putting out the eternal fire in the Middle East."
● Experts say these Kremlin narratives are aimed at Western audiences to drive a wedge into military support for Ukraine, attempt to demoralize Ukrainian society by claiming Ukraine will lose international support, and are intended to reassure Russian domestic audiences that the international community will ignore the war effort. of Ukraine.
● The report also notes that several key sources in the Russian news space shifted the focus of their daily coverage to the situation in Israel on October 7, which could affect the information environment surrounding the war in Ukraine in the coming days or weeks.
● Many of the Russian "warlords" focused mainly on the Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, and some contributed to the Kremlin's information operations, claiming that the West's attention had shifted from Ukraine to Israel.
● Such attention to Israel even prompted one Russian "military officer" to urge others not to "forget" about the war in Ukraine.
● "Currently, ISW cannot predict how the environment of sources will change in connection with the deployment of Hamas attacks in Israel," experts add.
7:26 PM: The Brazilian government convenes the UN Security Council over the situation in Israel.
● This was reported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil.
● "The government of Brazil condemns the series of explosions and ground attacks committed today in Israel from the Gaza Strip [...]", the message reads.
8:56 PM: Ukraine and Japan began the first round of negotiations on security guarantees.
● This is reported on the website of the President of Ukraine.
● The Ukrainian negotiation group was headed by the deputy head of OP Ihor Zhovkva.
9:24 PM: Biden plans to ask Congress for the largest package of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, which should last until early 2025, The Telegraph.
● "Some officials believe that the adoption of a single package, the size of which could reach 100 billion dollars, could give the Biden administration the best chance to secure funding for the war before the elections next November," the newspaper writes.
11:57 PM: The Brandenburg Gate in the capital of Germany was today "dressed" in the colors of the Israeli flag as a sign of support for the country in connection with yesterday's terrorist attack in Jerusalem.
● Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu published the corresponding photo on Facebook.
● "The flag of Israel at the Brandenburg Gate. Thanks to Germany for supporting Israel and for being on our side in our joint fight against terror," he commented.
NATIONAL
Sunday, October 8
12:20 AM: Ukraine will develop its own strategy for regulating artificial intelligence
● The Ministry of Digitization is developing a virtual assistant in "Dia", whose task is to quickly find answers to users' questions. In addition, AI will help the State Statistics Service to process and analyze data, added the head of the Ministry of Digital.
● They plan to adopt a law similar to the European AI Act. This will make it possible to create identical legal regimes with the EU in the field of AI.
12:41 AM: The Ukrainian energy system is ready for winter, - Galushchenko
● "First of all, from the point of view of generation and the ability to transmit electricity. The level of anti-aircraft defense is much better. The only negative impact that can have on the power system is massive shelling," the Minister of Energy noted.
6:24 AM: Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia regions. The threat of using ballistic weapons, - Air Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
7:03 AM: The activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed in the south-eastern directions, - Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● The threat of the use of aviation weapons for front-line areas.
7:21 AM: During the past 24 hours, the Air Force of the Defense Forces carried out 8 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel, weapons, and military equipment and 5 of the anti-aircraft missile complexes of the Russian Federation, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● Also, 4 UAVs of operational tactical level were destroyed. Units of the missile forces hit the artillery, the personnel concentration area and the electronic warfare station.
9:07 AM: Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko advised Ukrainians to buy generators for the winter just in case.
● "Buy generators, check that they are in working condition. If there is an opportunity, strengthen autonomous functioning - do it. And we, together with our air defense, will do everything so that you do not need this equipment," the minister said.
10:42 AM: People's Artist of Ukraine Nina Matvienko died.*
● The singer's death was reported by her daughter. The woman was 75 years old.
11:33 AM: The "A" unit of the Central Security Service of the SBU "White Wolf" added a dozen more knocked-out enemy armored vehicles and a rare radar complex to its account
● In the past two weeks, the following were destroyed:
o 6 tanks
o 6 BBM and 3 military vehicles
o of the 55Zh6U "Nebo-U" radar complex, which consisted of the main antenna, hardware machine and control machine
o 6 artillery systems
o 27 shelters and dugouts
o 90 Russians.
Saturday, October 8
12:50 PM: The Air Force told how Russia collects data before launching missiles
● "The Russians don't launch the Iskander missile just like that. The missile costs millions, and they don't have many of them. That's why the enemy calculates their plans in detail, uses all intelligence data," Ignat said.
● In front-line cities, missile strikes can be coordinated by agents of the Russian Federation. In addition, the Russians are eavesdropping on mobile operators and monitoring the social networks of Ukrainians. Therefore, he urged not to discuss important information over the phone or in messengers.
7:59 PM: The activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed in the eastern, southeastern directions, — the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
● The threat of the use of aviation weapons for front-line areas.
9:30 PM: Evening address of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi:
● "Due to the terrorist attack on Israel and the threat to our citizens in Israel, an operational headquarters was created at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
● As of now, the information about the possible death of one citizen of Ukraine is being checked and the search for two of our citizens is underway.
● The terrorist attack on Israel was carefully prepared, the whole world understands which sponsors of terror could incite and ensure the organization of this attack."
9:46 PM Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of 18:00 on October 7:
● "During the day, 50 combat clashes took place. The enemy launched 8 missile and 25 air strikes, carried out 30 attacks from rocket salvo systems on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
● So, at night, the Russian Federation launched another missile attack on civilian objects of the port infrastructure in Odesa, as well as on the central part of the city of Myrhorod, Poltava region.
● A granary, boarding house buildings in the recreation area, multi-apartment and private residential buildings, a vocational school, and other civil infrastructure were destroyed and damaged.
● "In the city of Lysychansk, Luhansk region, the Russian occupying forces set up a military hospital in an apartment building of the city, where the civilian population currently lives.
● Also, in the settlement of Nizhny Sirogozy, Kherson region, the occupiers moved sick civilians from the hospital to private houses located nearby, with the aim of freeing the hospital wards to receive wounded servicemen of the occupying forces."
● "During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces carried out 8 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, and 5 - on the enemy's anti-aircraft missile systems.
● Units of the missile forces hit the enemy's artillery, the personnel concentration area, and the enemy's EW station.
10:49 PM: The production of unmanned aerial vehicles in Ukraine has increased a hundredfold, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
● "The bureaucratic procedures regarding the defense procurement of Ukrainian drones have been simplified. The path of a drone from development to its purchase is now as short as possible. In a year, the production of drones has increased a hundredfold," Shmyhal said during the "hour of questions to the government" at the plenary session of the Verkhovna Rada on the slaughter house
● At the same time, he noted that more than two hundred Ukrainian companies have started developing UAVs.
11:47 PM: One of the brigades destroyed 25 Russian tanks in four days.
● It happened in the Lymano-Kupian direction. Soldiers of the 66th Armored Mechanized Brigade named after Prince Mstislav the Brave also distinguished themselves last day - seven T-72s and one T-90.
● This was stated by the head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, Artem Lysohor.
MORDOR - ruZZia
Sunday, October 8
9:48 AM: Russia will attack Ukraine in the fall and winter with a record number of "shaheds", - the speaker of the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Yuriy Ignat.
● "Russia used more than 500 drones against Ukraine in September. During the last 6 months of the heating season, more than 1,000 "shahedis" were used against Ukraine. And we already have half a thousand in just one month", - Yuriy Ignat.
Saturday, October 8
12:00 PM: the Russians took 4 ships into the Black Sea, among them a missile carrier, - the Navy of Ukraine.
● There is 1 Russian ship in the Sea of Azov that carries "Calibre" cruise missiles. At the same time, there are 3 ships on combat duty in the Mediterranean Sea, 1 of them is a carrier of "Calibre" cruise missiles.
3:40 PM: The SBU pointed HIMARS at the Russian Solntsepok, — the SBU press service.
● "Thanks to the coordination of the employees of the Security Service and the gunners of the Armed Forces of Ukraine TOS-1A "Solntsepok" was destroyed along with the crew and full ammunition," the message reads.
5:55 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in the temporarily occupied Dzhankoy, Crimea.
10:19 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Dzhankoya and Yevpatoria in temporarily occupied Crimea.
REGIONS
SUMY
Saturday, October 8
7:19 PM: Sumy region - missile danger, - Air Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
KHARKIV
Sunday, October 8
11:18 AM Kharkiv RMA: Last day, the Russians fired artillery, mortars, and aircraft at populated areas of Kharkiv, Bogodukhiv, Chuguyiv, Kupyan, and Izyum districts.
● As a result of a rocket attack on the village Roofs, facades and windows of 5 high-rise residential buildings were damaged in Peresichne, Kharkiv district, and there was a fire. 4 cars were damaged. Due to an acute reaction to stress, two people - a 66-year-old man and a 64-year-old woman - turned to doctors for help. Without hospitalization.
Saturday, October 8
12:19 PM Kharkiv RMA: Last night, around 03:10, the Russians struck Kupyansk with a guided aerial bomb. 3 residential buildings were damaged, there was a fire. There were no casualties, Oleg Sinegubov, head of Kharkiv OVA.
● As a result of shelling from the "Tornado" MLRS, the village of Shevchenko was wounded by a 56-year-old civilian.
● In the city of Vovchansk, a one-story apartment building was destroyed by shelling. A 76-year-old man, a 75-year-old woman and a 25-year-old woman were injured and hospitalized.
6:13 PM: Kharkiv region - the threat of using missile weapons, - Air Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
10:06 PM: Kharkiv region - the threat of using missile weapons, - Air Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
DONETSK
Saturday, October 8
1:12 PM: During the day, the enemy shelled 7 settlements in Donetsk region - one person was wounded, - National Police of Ukraine.
● Law enforcement officers recorded 14 hits on the civilian population. Russian troops fought with aviation and artillery. 8 civilian objects were damaged - 6 residential buildings, an economic structure, a car.
ZAPORIZHIA
Sunday, October 8
9:27 AM: the Russians struck 133 strikes on 21 populated areas of the Zaporizhzhia region, - head of the OVA, Yuriy Malashko.
● A 30-year-old man and a 35-year-old woman were injured as a result of the shelling on Bilenko, and they were quickly taken to medical institutions. A 46-year-old woman and a 71-year-old man died.
● 11 reports were received about the destruction of residential buildings and infrastructure facilities.
KHERSON
Sunday, October 8
12:32 AM Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kherson.
3:50 AM: Kherson local authorities report that according to preliminary information, as a result of a Russian artillery attack, at least three private houses were destroyed in the city's Ship district.
8:50 AM Kherson RMA: the Russians repeatedly raided Kherson and the settlements on the right bank. Residential blocks were under fire.
● Damaged houses, cars, gas distribution networks. Some shells did not explode. Rescuers eliminated them. 11 townspeople were injured. Among them is a 9-month-old child.
● Stanislav was also under fire. The consequences of the "hail" impact are being investigated.
Saturday, October 8
12:10 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
1:45 PM Kherson RMA: Occupying forces covered Komyshans with fire.
● "As a result of enemy shelling in the village, houses, farm buildings and premises of the enterprise were damaged. A 53-year-old woman was injured, who was at home at the time of the Russian attack," the message says.
4:05 PM: In the occupied Kherson region, in the city of Nova Kakhovka, the car of the so-called head of the local branch of the United Russia party, Volodymyr Malov, was blown up. Malov died in a local hospital from his injuries.
● This was reported by the so-called "governor" of the region and collaborator Volodymyr Saldo, and the death of Malov was confirmed by the "operational headquarters" of the region.
6:16 PM: Kherson and Mykolaiv regions - missile danger, - Air Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
6:35 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Kherson.
8:03 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kherson.
9:25 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard again in Kherson.
MYKOLAIV
Saturday, October 8
2:13 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Mykolaiv.
3:03 PM Mykolaiv RMA: The explosions are not in Mykolaiv, the relevant services have already left for the place.
4:19 PM Social Networks: Explosions are heard in Mykolayiv area.
5:06 PM: Explosions that were heard in some areas of Mykolaiv - outside the city limits.
● This was announced by the mayor of Mykolaiv Oleksandr Sienkovych.
ODESA
Sunday, October 8
10:22 AM: During the day, the Russian Federation sent three guided air bombs to the south of Odesa, creating tension around sea transport routes in the area of Zmiiny Island.
● This was reported in the Defense Forces of the South.
Saturday, October 8
6:55 PM: Odesa region - missile danger, - Air Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
TERNOPIL
Saturday, October 8
11:07 PM: In Ternopil, the Territorial Center for Recruitment and Social Support conducts an official inspection through a video in which military personnel forcefully put a man in a minibus in the middle of the city.
● The local TCC spoke about the ambiguity of the situation, and that the reason for the man's detention was allegedly verbal insults and insolence on the part of citizens towards employees of the assembly center, as well as the task of hitting a military serviceman.
● "In order to find out all the circumstances that occurred, the management of the Ternopil OTCC JV has appointed an official inspection, based on the results of which appropriate measures will be taken," the center said.
ZAKARPATTIA
Saturday, October 8
2:14 PM: The SBU detained Medvedchuk’s in-law, who was engaged in racketeering in Zakarpattia
● Ivan Chubirko is a current deputy of the Zakarpattia Regional State Administration, former head of the OPZZH in the region. He is Viktor Medvedchuk's best man and was married to Oksana Marchenko's sister.
● It is noteworthy that he was not just a deputy, but assembled a gang that terrorized the residents of the region. Racketeers "knocked" people out of money. Commercial conflicts were artificially created, and then huge sums were demanded for "resolve".
● The SBU detained the deputy and his accomplices "red handed" - during the transfer of the first part of the money in the amount of $20,000 from the injured businessman. In total, $135,000 was demanded from him. Perpetrators face up to 12 years in prison with confiscation of property.
Comparing Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to Russian invasion of Ukraine using Wikipedia and Ukraine Ministry of Defense Daily Bulletins. Soviet and Russian military losses not including captured equipment.
SOURCES
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/
https://espreso.tv/
https://t.me/uawarinfographics
https://t.me/svoboda_radio